Jon Chappell

Kevin said PS&O initiatives continue, agreed incentive comp will largely offset the July union wage increase, and flagged fuel as the biggest swing factor with slightly better-than-normal seasonality into Q3.

Maryclare explained export coal benchmarks stabilized vs Q4, domestic demand strong from power and data centers, uncertainty on utility closures.

Mary Claire discussed mix impacts with stronger growth in lower-RPU segments. Kevin added coal RPU comps ease after Q1 and should be more stable to slightly down, with longer domestic hauls from southern utility demand helping.

Sean provided detailed Q3-to-Q4 walk: $30M severance/restructuring rolls off, $15M network disruption benefit, but other revenue normalizes down and incentive comp up $10-20M. Approximately $100M of non-recurring costs provide 2026 tailwind.

Sean said Q3 coal RPU roughly similar to Q2 with possible modest decline. H1 commodity headwinds were $200M; H2 expected ~$100M with two-thirds in Q3. Q4 comps easier for year-over-year growth.

Sean broke down the $45M: $20-25M expected reroute costs plus $20-25M incremental from weather/congestion. Said the latter won't fully come out in Q2 given early April challenges but will improve.

Sean provided detailed modeling framework: Q4 base plus $1,500 incentive comp add-back for H1 run rate, then add 4% for H2 wage inflation. Lower health and welfare costs may provide upside.

Carere said the space is an ecosystem hard to size precisely, but it is the fastest-growing of the four verticals across industrial and AI bases.

Marshall Witt acknowledged broader LTL market weakness and need to improve yield growth through customer experience, pricing discipline, and dedicated sales team. John Smith highlighted completion of dedicated LTL sales force hiring with data-driven personalized approach.

Carere clarified B2B was nearly half (not over half) of growth, driven by new acquisition, share of wallet, and strongest small business B2B quarter in years. Expects consistency Q1 through Q4.

Carere bridged Q1 to full-year: USPS $280M headwind lapses in Q2, new customer onboarding still ramping (Amazon minimal in Q1), and Freight yields improve in back half. Called midpoint very realistic.

Dietrich declined to break down revenue vs cost components of the $170M headwind, noting it's a fluid situation with capacity being redirected rather than simply removed. Subramaniam credited Tricolor for enabling the flex.

Dietrich acknowledged inflation as a constant factor but did not quantify the specific dollar impact on the guidance change, citing PT costs, volume-linked costs, and employee wages as ongoing pressures.

Brie acknowledged some possible pull-forward from ports in December but said it's hard to separate from consumer demand during peak. Raj emphasized FedEx's agility and customs clearance expertise.

Darren declined a volume forecast, stressing disciplined growth and strong demand while flagging drayage/driver capacity as a constraint.

Spencer described capacity as having inverted with regulatory enforcement accelerating. Cited pattern matching to 2017-2018 ELD cycle and 2020-2022 demand cycle: spot moves first, then contract highway (3-6 months), then intermodal (6-12 months). Nick confirmed big shift from first to second half of bid season with customers more willing on rate increases. Darren noted 7% Eastern growth on top of 13% comp proves road-to-rail conversion.

Darren said intermodal expecting normal Q1 seasonality but encouraged by January. Nick Hobbs said need consistency in overall market, not just JBHT volumes, before signaling on rates. Shelley noted caution from false starts in previous years. Brad Delco noted market tightness in Q1 is unique and worth watching.

Darren Field explained Q3 reflects fully implemented bid season with positive headhaul pricing offset by negative backhaul pricing, netting to -1% reported. TransCon volumes up sequentially contributing to mix shift. Nick Hobbs attributed ICS improvement to targeting harder, less commoditized freight.

Darren confirmed core pricing slightly positive but mix (Eastern growth vs flat TransCon) heavily influencing reported yields. Brad Delco noted 30bps sequential margin improvement despite yield decline.

Spencer said they will not change pricing direction based on import decline fears. Noted that customers are already aggressively shifting country of origin sourcing.

Shelley Simpson identified three controllable levers: improving intermodal network balance (loaded vs empty), continued cost control, and scaling revenue into the existing cost base.

Direct answer with a stage read and a specific reason: no meaningful weight per shipment change yet in 3PL managed business.

Marty directly denied pull forward, attributing volume improvement to truckload reversion. Adam added optimism from customers through the balance of the year, expecting continued sequential improvement.

Adam outlined Q2 normal seasonality: +7% sequential revenue, 300-350bp OR improvement. That would put Q2 OR roughly flat YoY. Declined to do full-year OR math but noted 10-year average net income growth of ~15% despite 3-year freight recession. Referenced 300+bp OR improvement years in strong demand environments.

Headcount down ~6% YoY vs shipments down ~8%. Normal attrition expected to continue in Q4. Combined salary and operating supplies typically increase ~170bp Q3 to Q4.

Fleet reduction removed older high-repair-cost equipment. Cost per mile improved after double-digit increases in 2022-2023. Q3 pressure expected from higher fuel prices.

Adam guided Q2 rev per hundredweight ex-fuel at 5-5.5%, a slight acceleration. Successfully getting increases through bids. Market share maintained at 12-13%.

Adam said openings will be demand-driven. Over 30% excess capacity means no urgency, but several facilities near completion ready to activate quickly.

Hamann attributed the raised EPS guide to stronger volumes and efficient handling, without isolating a single driver.

Eric, Kenny, and Jim detailed latent capacity from train length improvements, terminal investments, and operating 24% fewer trains than 2019 at higher volumes with over 100 parked locomotives available.

Jennifer explained coal pricing tailwinds won't repeat, weak domestic intermodal market limits pricing, but Eric's productivity gains and more favorable business mix in 2026 will drive OR improvement.

Eric detailed the volume-down playbook: maintain all buffers, adjust transportation plan for crew and train starts, rightsize locomotive and car fleets, then adjust hiring by geography if prolonged weakness persists.

Jim framed the NS discussions as forward-looking evolution, arguing that strong fundamentals enable pursuing what's possible rather than standing still.

Eric detailed the systematic approach: first fill latent capacity, then combo trains, then add/remove symbols, supported by the new adaptive planning technology.

Jim Vena detailed over 75 productivity initiatives spanning terminal automation, workforce scheduling, purchase services, and technology deployment.

Damon attributed Global Forwarding's performance to Lean AI and lean principles rather than market tailwinds, calling the ~30% mid-cycle margin sustainable.

NAST president said lean AI tools now identify supply chain breaking points same day vs weeks/months previously. Conversations with customers happen in real-time with disciplined decisions together. CFO added they change strategies hundreds of times a month with surgical revenue management.

NAST president said Q4 tested these capabilities during spot spike and they handled it better than the market and better than they would have historically. Cost-of-hire advantage widened during the quarter. Key question is what demand signal looks like, confident they'll manage squeeze faster with real demand recovery.

CFO clarified incremental pressure is from truckload rates not recovering as expected, not GF rates. GF performing as expected. M&A bar extremely high; 2026 walk over-indexed to organic. When inorganic move happens, it will be obvious to investors. CEO emphasized disciplined and measured approach.

NAST president described Robinson Financial partnership with Triumph for carrier payments. Ecosystem approach combining most loads, best people, and financial support to differentiate.

CEO emphasized operating model provides flexibility for either slow burn or aggressive turn. NAST president added pricing and costing engines give them tools to win share in any market.