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Backtest · hypothetical

Post-Earnings Returns

How one rule has performed on past earnings calls: a quarter qualifies when it is a company’s second or later consecutive 9+ score at a non-elevated valuation. It is measured two ways: each quarter on its own from the T+2 open, and as a hypothetical portfolio that trades at daily closes and includes positions still held.

Portfolio chart: Jan 23, 2025 – Oct 13, 2026 · daily closes
One-quarter strategy figures: Completed windows · entries from Jan 23, 2025
Basis: Price returns · dividends excluded

Hypothetical portfolio analysis. The returns shown on this page are based on backtested historical data and do not represent actual trading results. Past performance does not guarantee future results. New to this page? See How to read Tellvest Score Consistency vs Returns.

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Strategy performance since inception

Value of $100 in a hypothetical portfolio of qualifying quarters, against $100 held in SPY. Unlike the one-quarter figures below, it trades at daily closes and includes positions still held. How purchases are sized is under Method & definitions.

Streak strategy rules

Entry

2nd consecutive 9+ quarter, non-elevated valuation.

Exit

Score drops below 9, or P/E and EV/Sales both above sector median.

One-quarter results

Each qualifying quarter on its own, from the T+2 open to the last close before the company’s next earnings call. Only completed windows count; the first qualifying entry was Jan 23, 2025.

Median return (1Q): +12.8%Consecutive 9+ quarters · n = 178
Consecutive hit rate: 67.4%% positive at 1Q
Quarters with a completed window: 3,629All scores; no date restriction
Companies scored: 587With at least one Tellvest score

Strategy vs. benchmarks

One-quarter returns from the T+2 open. The strategy row covers qualifying quarters entered from Jan 23, 2025. SPY is measured over those quarters’ entry and exit dates where SPY prices are available, so its quarter count can differ. The non-selected and all-tracked rows have no date restriction, so they can include earlier quarters.

Strategy vs. benchmarks: one-quarter returns and the number of quarters in each group
Group	Quarters	Median 1Q	Avg 1Q
Streak StrategyQualifying quarters · non-elevated valuation178 quarters	178	+12.8%	+16.9%
Non-SelectedNo date restriction3,451 quarters	3,451	+1.5%	+3.9%
All Tracked StocksNo date restriction3,629 quarters	3,629	+1.7%	+4.5%
S&P 500 (SPY)Strategy quarters’ dates, where SPY prices exist178 quarters	178	+5.1%	+5.9%

The consistency premium

Median one-quarter return by score threshold, excluding elevated valuations, across all completed windows (no date restriction). At 9+: consecutive +12.8% vs. first-time +1.1%.

What the book is saying

Across the 48 active positions’ latest quarters — themes, how they read the economy, and where analysts pushed.

Technology makes up just over half the held names at 52 percent, and the book leans hard on AI demand, with 32 of the 48 positions describing improving AI and tech conditions and 18 citing NVIDIA. The macro read is carried by AI and tech demand, capex, and enterprise spend, while the drags stay narrow, led by supply chain at 10 mentions and oil and gas at 5. Conversation centers on revenue growth, demand, and cloud and AI, and analyst posture is light, with only 10 percent of exchanges reading as a challenge.

Concentration · one factor

This book trades like an AI-infrastructure basket

52% of holdings are Technology · 32 of 48 cite AI/tech demand as improving · 18 reference NVIDIA directly. Diversified by ticker, single-factor by driver.

How they read the economy

AI/tech demand32 ▲
Capex19 ▲
Enterprise spend12 ▲
Consumer spend4 ▲
Supply chain10 ▼
Oil & gas5 ▼
Inflation4 ▼
Housing2 ▼

▲ improving · ▼ deteriorating · number of holdings

Talked about most

Revenue growthMarginDemandGuidance reliabilityCloud / AICapital allocation

Where analysts pushed

Revenue growth (41), Demand (40), Competitive dynamics (39)

Analyst pushback

~10% of questions were challenging

Trade signals

Current BUY / HOLD / SELL signals and the full signal history are part of Tellvest Pro. The backtest results above are free.

Method & definitions

One-quarter (1Q) return: From the open two trading days after the earnings call (T+2) to the last close before the company’s next earnings call. Price only; dividends are not included. Used by the results, benchmarks and consistency premium.
Qualifying quarter: A company’s second or later consecutive fiscal quarter scored 9 or higher, with valuation risk not elevated in either quarter.
Elevated valuation: P/E and EV/Sales both above the sector median.
Hit rate: Share of qualifying quarters with a positive 1Q return.
SPY comparison: For each qualifying quarter with SPY prices on both its T+2 day and its last day, SPY from the open on the T+2 day to the close on the last day. Its quarter count is shown separately and can be lower than the strategy’s.
Hypothetical portfolio: Starts with $100 on Jan 23, 2025. For each qualifying quarter it buys the stock at the close on its entry day: normally T+2, or a later trading day when the score was published too late for T+2. Each purchase targets a set share of the account, smaller when many positions are open, and is paid from cash only: when cash is short a purchase is smaller than its target or skipped, and nothing is sold to make room. A purchase is held to the last close before the company’s next earnings call; one still inside that window is valued at the latest close. Price only; no borrowing. SPY: $100 bought on the first day and held.
Hypothetical: These are backtested historical results, not actual trading results. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

How to read Tellvest Score Consistency vs Returns Score consistency vs returns FAQ

Score	Consecutive median	n	First-time median	n
1+	+3.7%	2,177	−5.5%	539
2+	+3.7%	2,115	−5.3%	566
3+	+3.7%	2,008	−4.5%	591
4+	+4.0%	1,828	−3.9%	631
5+	+3.9%	1,633	−2.9%	666
6+	+4.0%	1,307	−1.4%	706
7+	+4.8%	883	−0.8%	649
8+	+6.4%	467	+0.5%	546
9+	+12.8%	178	+1.1%	317

Post-Earnings Returns

Strategy performance since inception

Streak strategy rules

Entry

Exit

One-quarter results

Strategy vs. benchmarks

The consistency premium

What the book is saying

Trade signals

Method & definitions

Post-Earnings Returns

Strategy performance since inception

Streak strategy rules

Entry

Exit

One-quarter results

Strategy vs. benchmarks

The consistency premium

What the book is saying

Trade signals

Method & definitions

Live trade signals are a Pro feature