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Analyst
Julian Mitchell
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q1 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 226on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 9%21 of 226 questions
- Companies
- 23questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 226 of 226 questions from 23 companies
ROKRockwell Automation14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
it's very, very rare for margins in the back half to come down versus fiscal Q2, but that's what the guide is implying. Is this all just this sort of inflation from memory
Show response
Christian cited memory cost headwinds, additional spending in H2, and Q4 mix shift toward Lifecycle Services as factors. Q2 was an outperformance that won't fully repeat.
was there any kind of surge in orders in recent weeks? There were some other kind of industrial companies or shorter cycle industrial companies who saw very, very high orders growth
Show response
Blake confirmed natural demand with no pull-forwards after surveying distributors and machine builders. Logix grew over 20% driven by data center conversions.
Calendar 2025 Q4
How much of a decent recovery you think is left on the Logix front?
Show response
Blake confirmed Logix expected at or slightly above pre-pandemic units for full year. New L9 controller and software-defined automation driving adoption, including data center wins replacing DDC systems. Food and bev double-digit growth led by European packaging OEMs.
how you see the margin drivers playing out across the segments for that second-quarter commentary
Show response
Christian guided for slight sequential improvement in sales and modest margin expansion for Intelligent Devices and Software & Control. Lifecycle Services holding around 14%. Merit increases are a Q2 factor. Total company Q2 EPS approximately $2.85.
Calendar 2025 Q3
was it sort of constructed with a view around sort of normal seasonality or just very tough comps in the second half?
Show response
Blake outlined mid-single-digit growth for Discrete and Hybrid, low single-digit for Process. Christian confirmed sequential improvement from Q1 with YoY growth rates declining through the year on tougher comps.
Does that sort of assume to be de minimis tailwind exiting this new fiscal year?
Show response
Christian detailed 2 points total price for FY26: 1 point underlying, 1 point tariff-based. Balanced approach to ensure tariff neutrality on EPS while maintaining underlying price realization.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how significant, let's say, were the pull forwards in Q3 versus the project delays effect?
Show response
Blake separated pull-forwards (product side) from delays (configure-to-order and lifecycle services). Auto had a good Q3 with nice wins. Home and personal care also had strong growth. View is largely balanced.
does that sort of 35% plus operating leverage placeholder, is that intact largely the next 12 months?
Show response
Christian confirmed 35% incremental framework remains intact even with incremental investments. Compensation is at a normalized level. Blake added project investment spend is within their control to manage against margin targets.
Calendar 2025 Q1
does that mean even with the tax rate headwind year-on-year sort of EPS is up in Q3?
Show response
Christian provided Q3 EPS guidance of approximately $2.60, which would be down slightly year-over-year. Blake added Logix unit volumes still not back to pre-COVID levels with more room to run.
I just wanted to confirm if that's roughly the right ballpark of what you should see early in the sort of cyclical recovery phase
Show response
Christian reiterated the 35% incremental framework from Investor Day, acknowledging variability at different cycle points. Blake added headcount still more than 10% below peak, maintaining spending discipline.
Calendar 2024 Q4
is there any sort of historical context you could put around that book to bill kind of what is it typically in the first quarter
Show response
Blake acknowledged lack of reliable historical correlation for Q1 book-to-bill but confirmed products were slightly better than mid-single-digit sequential growth and January was consistent with outlook.
it looks like in intelligent devices, maybe the channel or your partners are a bit further behind in the destocking, whereas Logix and software and control you're firmly in the sort of early stage ...
Show response
Blake noted Logix recovery reflects machine builder normalization. Intelligent Devices has broader SKU exposure and heavy auto weighting which is still lagging. Christian added configure-to-order seasonality as a factor.
Calendar 2024 Q3
are you confident you can get back to that mid-single digit plus growth trend without sort of heavier investment taking place in the next couple of years?
Show response
Blake confirmed preserved R&D spending through the downturn, with Software and Control R&D at double-digit percentage of sales. Structural capacity investments continue alongside surgical cost cuts.
was that the low to mid-teens margin comment for Q1? Was that a segment margin comment?
Show response
Christian confirmed low-to-mid-teens is segment margin for Q1, with sequential ramp expected to reach 19% for the full year.
CARRCarrier Global12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
how to think about the CSA margin progression? Because I guess, as you said, you've got the most profitable parts of CSA are down decently
Show response
Patrick laid out full-year CSA margin cadence: Q2 ~24%, Q3 mid-20s, Q4 high teens, full year ~21%. H2 benefits from much better volumes and absence of 2025 under-absorption headwind.
How should we think about the extra several hundred million of costs kind of phasing in through this year and then the mitigation efforts into '27
Show response
Patrick explained pricing went into effect after April 6 tariffs, creating slight Q2 headwind. LIFO accounting means cost impact is immediate. Full offset expected by Q3.
Calendar 2025 Q4
help us understand what you're seeing in the market on pricing and how you see industry discipline on the price front
Show response
Gitlin walked through full framework: industry units down 10-15% (two-year stack -30%). H1 Carrier resi down 20-25% (consistent with movement), H2 up ~10% (absence of destocking). Full year down high single digits with low single-digit price benefit. No assumed macro improvement.
what you're dialing in for that CSE RLC market for the year ahead
Show response
Gitlin guided CSE RLC flat: industry down mid-to-high single but heat pumps up double digits, boilers down low-to-mid single, aftermarket up double digits, revenue synergies on track. German market ended ~600K vs expected 650K and historical ~800K. Continued ambiguity around German heating laws.
Calendar 2025 Q3
one could surmise you get to something like a 2.90s of EPS or something maybe high single-digit EPS growth
Show response
Goris confirmed $0.20 EPS tailwind from restructuring, tax, and repo without any organic growth. 40%+ of sales growing double digits (aftermarket + commercial HVAC) would get to ~4% organic alone. CSA resi may be flat to slightly up volume. Germany at 15-year lows, hard to see worse.
if we think about the nondata center demand in CSA, light and Applied, how is that looking?
Show response
Gitlin: data center up ~250%, non-DC up low teens, total commercial up 30%. Applied up 60%. Mega projects, healthcare, commercial real estate surprisingly up. K-12 and higher ed weak. Goris added non-DC orders also up YoY; DC orders down due to lumpiness.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the EPS sequentially in Q4, it's a much smaller decline than sort of normal
Show response
Goris cited easier comps in Europe, Asia Pacific, and transportation returning to growth. ~100bps margin expansion expected in Q4. Productivity and cost actions more visible in Q4 than Q3. Unfavorable resi mix partially offsets.
flesh out a little bit more those assumptions on U.S. resi light commercial for sort of the back half
Show response
Gitlin walked through H2 algorithm: volume down 20-25%, price/mix up 10-15%, net sales down ~10%. Q2 volume down mid-single (expected up low single). No shift to repair vs replace. Movement was softer in June, picked up late July. Full year resi revised to up mid-single digits.
Calendar 2025 Q1
there isn't much difference between what you saw in Q1 and what's guided for the full year, even though perhaps one might think with the seasonality, it should be moving higher
Show response
Goris walked through quarterly cadence: 22% Q1, ~25% Q2, similar Q3, step down Q4 to 22.5% for year. Tariffs a 50-60bps headwind to Americas margin for year due to price-cost neutrality. Lower resi volumes in H2 also impact margins.
flesh out perhaps what you're seeing in the resi piece there and like commercial and that's the two places where I suppose the full year guidance has changed
Show response
Gitlin detailed resi up ~20% in Q1, guided 15-20% in Q2, high single to low double for year. Light commercial down 35% in Q1, guided down 10% for year. Light commercial is ~$1.5B or ~5% of company, so down 10% impacts top line by only ~0.5%.
Calendar 2024 Q4
mid-single digits for this year ahead in Americas like commercial. So maybe just help us understand kind of how you see the market dynamics
Show response
Gitlin noted ESRA funding being replaced by $76B bond referendums, K-12 orders up 20%, and 454B mix-up driving low-to-mid single digit growth.
walk us through kind of how we think about growth for the rest of the year after Q1
Show response
Goris provided quarterly cadence: Q1 flat to low single, Q2-Q3 high single, Q4 mid single. VCS down 10-15% in Q1, mid-single growth in Q2.
FTVFortive12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
anything we should bear in mind on operating leverage as we move through the year?
Show response
50-100bps EBITDA margin expansion each year. Formula: costs out of non-value-added areas, reinvest in growth-driving initiatives. H2 comps get harder in Q3, Q4 has days headwind. Less margin expansion in H2 vs H1 but overall trajectory strong.
how are the orders progressing there?
Show response
Orders grew faster than ~5% core and ~8% total revenue growth. Broad-based across both segments. Fluke POS solid, book-to-bill over one, healthy backlogs, channel inventories relatively normal in US and improving outside. ASP consumables durable even adjusting for extra days.
Calendar 2025 Q4
is that something that's, I don't know, multiyear reinvestment need?
Show response
Soroye confirmed Q4 AHS margin pressure was localized, not multiyear. Strategic investments in customer engagement, sales and marketing, and R&D to set up top-line acceleration. Path of margin improvement in segment remains firmly intact.
the last couple of years with new Fortive about 20% of the year's EPS
Show response
Revenue and EBITDA to broadly follow historical quarterly distribution. Q1 has slight favorability on days, Q4 a slight negative. ~300bps FX tailwind in Q1 easing through year. January came in very solid.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I just wondered, is that sort of a normal run rate in future
Show response
Mid-teens tax rate a good framework for 2026. Pillar two proposals could push higher if US not excluded, but current thinking is exclusion. Not yet written into law.
what's happening in terms of the equipment demand versus consumables
Show response
AHS software strong, capital equipment seeing sequential improvement especially accelerating in September as hospitals gain legislative clarity. Consumables also improving sequentially. Biggest markets continue to grow in consumables.
Calendar 2025 Q2
maybe third quarter EPS is in the maybe low mid-50s range in terms of cents, perhaps sort of flattish EBITDA sequentially and then there's the tax pressure
Show response
Okerstrom confirmed Q3 step-down from seasonality plus tariff headwind, Q4 rebound from full tariff mitigation becoming a slight positive, FX tailwind, single-digit tax rate from discretes, lower interest, and share repurchase benefit.
the government pressure at FAL. What are you assuming there in terms of how much faster that improves? And then in health care, just unpack a little bit
Show response
Soroye explained three discrete issues: Gordian's June year-end spike didn't materialize due to state/local funding concerns; hospital capital equipment deferrals ahead of One Big Beautiful Bill signing; Fluke short-cycle mix shift to longer lead time. All pipeline intact, guidance secure regardless of recovery timing.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is that reinvestment element something that lasts all year that will weigh on the Healthcare margins
Show response
AHS margins typically lowest in Q1, ramp through year with Q4 highest. Q1 impacted by transactional FX and fewer days on high-margin consumables. Growth investments continuing.
just to understand the guide a little bit it's sort of embedding I think what maybe a low-single-digit sequential revenue increase
Show response
Q2: New Fortive low-single-digit core growth, PT down mid-single. Tariff impact roughly $0.06 in Q2 with countermeasures phasing in. Margins pressured sequentially.
Calendar 2024 Q4
just trying to understand that improvement in year-on-year organic sales from the first quarter to the balance of the year
Show response
McLaughlin explained PT cadence: Q1 down mid-single, improving through year. Driven by China comp easing, some market improvement, and capacity investments.
any way in which you could size perhaps, you know, share of purchases or cogs or something like that from some of the countries that may be affected
Show response
Canada/Mexico tariffs have no impact. China tariffs countermeasured using 2018 playbook. China expected down mid-single digit for the year.
HONHoneywell International Inc.12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Help us understand kind of how we should be thinking about that? It sounds like you're still thinking sort of flattish for the year as a whole on organic sales
Show response
Vimal confirmed PA&T flattish for the year with strong backlog supporting high-single-digit second half ramp, offset by Middle East impacts in H1.
what you're seeing kind of real time in the commercial aero aftermarket side of things and whether you have moderated your outlook at all for the second half
Show response
Jim Currier confirmed no Q1 commercial aftermarket impact from conflicts, with growth constrained by supply not demand. Any flight hour declines have 3-6 month lag.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how second-half weighted that margin acceleration is? And are there any specific items on a segment level driving that
Show response
Operational margins expanding 50-90 bps, offset by ~30 bps Quantinuum headwind (higher in Q1). R&D now normalized, no longer a margin headwind vs 50 bps drag in 2025. H2 much better than H1.
just a quick follow-up on the aerospace margins. Specifically, I think they're starting out the year maybe down a touch
Show response
Three tailwinds for Aero margins: tariffs behind, price improving, CAES integration costs abating. OE contract renegotiations underway with multiple OEMs, long-term positive for margin expansion.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just my quick follow-up on the Aerospace division. Maybe give us some update on where we stand on that destocking
Show response
OE recoupling largely complete. Q2 was margin bottom, sequential improvement continuing into 2026. Past-due backlog still over $2 billion provides extended runway for output growth.
Just wanted to start with the IA segment as it seems there's a lot of different moving parts inside it
Show response
IA orders strong in Q3 but warehouse automation timing creates variability. Margins grow sequentially in Q4 with no one-timers. Team positioned for margin expansion in 2026 with improving backlog and pricing visibility.
Calendar 2025 Q2
in Paris as if there was a bit more confidence around sort of supply chain issues and getting those resolved
Show response
OEM destocking is transitory and will normalize in H2. CAES integration dragging 100 bps but growing at high double-digit revenue. $200M incremental R&D is transitional investment.
the sort of R&D hike, you think by the end of this year, kind of R&D to sales in Aero shouldn't be a headwind next year
Show response
CEO confirmed all three headwinds are transitionary: R&D step-up normalizes, CAES becomes tailwind, OE destocking resolves. R&D acceleration spans all four segments.
Calendar 2025 Q1
you have that big drop-off in the PSS top line in the first quarter
Show response
PSS roughly flat ex-Zebra royalty comp. IA margin decline driven by receivables write-off, not recurring. PPE exit and absence of write-offs support H2 margin expansion.
on the capital deployment. Last year, you had under $2 billion of buyback and close to $9 billion committed to M&A
Show response
Balanced approach: opportunistic buybacks continue at attractive levels alongside time-sensitive M&A. Multiple deals in pipeline worked for years won't be passed on.
Calendar 2024 Q4
operating segment margin guidance. It's flattish this year. I think it was down slightly, 20 bps underlying in 2024
Show response
Management explained three of four segments will expand margins; CAES acquisition integration is the sole drag on Aerospace. Added $100M in repositioning costs year-over-year.
give us any help around the stranded and stand up costs that might be needed for aerospace and automation initially out of the gate
Show response
Management gave clear FCF conversion targets of 100% for both Aerospace and Automation, cited $1.5-2B one-time costs but deferred stranded cost specifics.
HUBBHubbell Incorporated12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
did you clarify the sort of share of earnings in the first half?
Show response
Normal seasonal step-up from Q1 to Q2 expected. High-single-digit organic growth in Q2 with price/cost productivity approximately neutral on dollars. Normal seasonal head-and-shoulders shape for the year.
how we should think about operating margins through the balance of the year
Show response
Full-year 20bps margin expansion at midpoint, weighted toward Utility (ratable expansion) with Electrical approximately flat. Approximately 1 point of margin dilution from price/cost math embedded in the 20bps. Electrical faces tougher H1 comps, normalizes in H2.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Should assume organic sales growth is sort of front-loaded a little bit because of comps.
Show response
Strong Q1 year-over-year organic growth expected. Cautioned against using percentage-of-year as sole determinant; focus on moving parts rather than precise percentages.
I think the guide is embedding maybe 50 basis points of operating margin expansion for the year for the total company.
Show response
Approximately 50 basis points full-year margin expansion confirmed. Normal seasonal head-and-shoulders shape (peak Q3). $15-20M restructuring front-end loaded with roughly a third in Q1. Higher Q1 tax rate. Margin expansion expected in both segments.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the commentary around, I think, nonresidential and also kind of heavy industry into next year is quite muted
Show response
Hubbell cautious on nonres and heavy industrial but acknowledges potential for decent rebound. Exposure has shrunk through portfolio management. Will true up expectations by January guidance. Unlikely to be an outlier from market.
if there was anything to highlight in terms of the effect from restructuring costs not repeating or higher savings
Show response
Restructuring is a consistent annual investment, not a whipsaw margin item. Included in reported results unlike some peers who exclude it. FIFO accounting change not expected to distort 2026 margins year-over-year.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is that low single-digit volume increase the right sort of placeholder? Or do you think that you can sort of sustain that second half exit rate for some time into 2026?
Show response
Long-term framework from Investor Day is mid-single-digit organic growth for the portfolio, which management views as the sustainable rate.
I just wanted to understand better perhaps the moving parts around operating margin expansion in the second half.
Show response
H2 margins impacted by tariff costs offset dollar-for-dollar by price (OP neutral but margin dilutive) plus extra Q3 investment in restructuring and growth areas. Q4 margin performance expected better than Q3.
Calendar 2025 Q1
it's a pretty strong volume growth in the second half. And so just maybe help us understand that a little bit
Show response
Back-half volume acceleration supported by strong orders, easier comps, and inflection points in distribution T&D returning to growth and telecom enclosures turning from contraction to growth.
Is it now sort of down, call it, I know a few 10s of basis points for the year kind of similar to the Q1 margin progression?
Show response
Full-year margins now slightly down vs prior expectation of slight expansion, as 3-4% price increases to offset tariffs dilute margins even though underlying product profitability is maintained.
Calendar 2024 Q4
any color around what we should expect in terms of operating margin performance at each of the two segments?
Show response
Electrical margin expansion from mix shift to high-growth products plus efficiency initiatives; Utility margins dependent on volume recovery delivering incrementals.
that piece slash grid automation is down maybe low double-digits still in the first quarter
Show response
Confirmed meters/AMI down low double-digits in Q1 and high single for full year, but broader grid automation expected to grow slightly on double-digit protection and controls strength.
IRIngersoll Rand12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
the last 5 quarters, the majority of those have been impacted by the kind of the tariff dynamics
Show response
Vik explained ITS expected approximately flat full year. H2 margin expansion from better organic volume, fully implemented tariff pricing, in-year targeted pricing, and 2025 restructuring savings materializing. Exit rate consistent with long-term targets.
organic sales company-wide may be flattish year-on-year in Q2 and then the EBITDA margin is down
Show response
Vik confirmed Q2 organic flattish to slightly up, margins down 50-100bps YoY primarily from ITS. PST expected to show continued margin expansion YoY. First half EBITDA delivery 45.5-46% of full year. Sequential margin improvement Q1 to Q2.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I think the guidance embeds full-year EBITDA margins are flattish
Show response
Vik confirmed full year margins flattish with H1 constrained from tariff annualization and H2 better from in-year pricing, productivity, and cost actions. Price/cost neutral in H1, positive H2 and full year. Q4 2025 team executed well.
is it fair to assume the guidance is based on roughly that one point of organic revenue growth year on year fairly evenly through the year
Show response
Vik confirmed Q1 flat to slightly down organic, then comparable low single-digit organic growth for Q2-Q4. No meaningful market recovery baked in. EPS growth relatively even quarterly and first half vs second half.
Calendar 2025 Q3
quantify for us that split of price versus volume in the third quarter
Show response
Vicente provided exact pricing split. Q4 guide change driven 2/3 by incremental Section 232 tariffs and 1/3 by delayed in-year pricing from backlog growth. Vik added Q4 pricing percentage expected roughly consistent with Q3.
the main headwinds within that, that there's maybe an M&A headwind, the price/cost aspect, maybe something in mix
Show response
Vik identified three drivers of subdued incrementals: tariff dilution (largest), organic volume deleverage offset by lower-margin M&A/FX growth, and ongoing SG&A commercial investments. Gross margins effectively flat, showing proactive pricing and productivity. 2026 H1 more muted, H2 better.
Calendar 2025 Q2
your EBITDA is about 26% of the year in Q3. So based on your full year guide
Show response
Vik confirmed second half better than first half consistent with prior guidance. Provided detailed H2 breakdown: organic volume down low single digits (vs mid-single down in H1), pricing 3.5-4% total with ~2% base and ~2% tariff-related.
the first half was down about 3.5% year-on-year. The full year guide is sort of minus 1%
Show response
Vik confirmed Q3 slightly positive organic, Q4 better. Performance not dramatically different between IT&S and P&ST segments in H2.
Calendar 2025 Q1
help us understand how the quarterly organic sales are expected to progress. Anything abnormal seasonality wise
Show response
Vik provided detailed H1/H2 phasing: H1 organic down 3-4% with 2% price, H2 up 3-4% organic with volume down low-single-digits and full tariff pricing run rate.
should expect sort of margins to just be up a bit in each of the remaining three quarters year-on-year
Show response
Vik explained total year implies flattish margins. Main driver is $150M tariff pricing at zero flow-through diluting margin rate. Other factors (productivity, normal pricing) in line with historical trends.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how you're sort of thinking about the EBITDA margin cadence through 2025 and sort of general satisfaction with the ILC Dover performance
Show response
Vicente highlighted ILC Dover Life Science growing double-digits and restructuring into 3 P&Ls. Vik confirmed better than 100bps annual margin target.
It seemed that maybe they fell a touch light in Q4 versus what you had thought. Was that all related to China
Show response
Vicente confirmed China was the driver, noted orders not lost just delayed, and excluding China both segments grew low-single digits organically.
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ITWIllinois Tool Works12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Anything in Welding that we should think about over the balance of the year, the margins there perhaps picking up steam
Show response
CFO noted Welding margins already best-in-class at 32%, so less room for improvement. T&M expected to show strongest operating leverage as volume and price pick up.
were you referring to sort of total company there in terms of the confidence of getting to the higher end of the range
Show response
CFO confirmed guidance broadly unchanged, noted a bit more price coming through in Q2 from inflationary pressures but nothing material versus original plan.
Calendar 2025 Q4
if you could flesh out any sense of kind of seasonality for this year, anything unusual
Show response
Michael said 47/53 first-half/second-half EPS split, same as 2025. Q1 down ~$100M sequential revenue from Q4, margins dip slightly. Q1 at ~23% of full-year EPS. Every quarter shows YoY revenue growth and margin improvement, with Q1 more modest and picking up through Q2-Q4.
sort of flesh out a little bit the progress there in 2026, what we should expect, and any thoughts on the product life cycle management side
Show response
Chris said CBI pipeline is strengthening with patent filings up 18% in 2024 and 9% in 2025, a leading indicator of future revenue growth. PLS dropping to maintenance level of 30-50bps in 2026, down from 2025. CBI higher and PLS lower supports the 1-3% organic growth guide.
Calendar 2025 Q3
is there a big kind of payback from the restructuring efforts that happened this year coming in?
Show response
Michael expects ~100bps from enterprise initiatives to continue. Incrementals well above 35-40% historical, Q3 was 65%. Auto demonstrated 5% organic = 20%+ income growth.
is the assumption that, that should be more and more of a net positive
Show response
Chris said CBI and PLS are independent processes but mathematically the spread will grow. CBI doubled from 1% to 2% since 2018, tracking 2.3-2.5% this year, targeting 3%+ by 2030.
Calendar 2025 Q2
third versus fourth quarter? I know there was a little bit of conversation of that already
Show response
Michael said sequential improvement from Q2 into Q3 and bigger Q4 step-up on margins. All 7 segments improving in H2. June was strongest month. Tariff pricing flows through Q3-Q4.
there's about a $0.30, $0.40 tailwind to EPS from the FX change, what are sort of the offsets
Show response
Michael said conservative approach given uncertainty. Actual Q2 FX contribution was only $0.03/share. H2 guidance implies 2-3% organic, 100bps+ margin improvement, strong incrementals.
Calendar 2025 Q1
we've seen some fairly lackluster updates from some larger customers in that sort of quick serve channel
Show response
Chris highlighted institutional strength (40-50% of business), unique captive service business (one-third of revenue), and fertile innovation around energy and water savings.
Is the assumption that all segments should be sort of tariff dollar neutral for 2025 as a whole?
Show response
Chris said tariff impact is broad-based, a little less in Automotive. All segments working on pricing and supply chain actions. Less pricing lag expected vs 2017-2018.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how are we thinking about margins in specialty for the year ahead?
Show response
Michael expects both growth and margin improvement in Specialty in 2025 despite ongoing PLS. The objective is to make Specialty a 4% grower long-term.
Anything you'd call out on the sort of top line movement through the year
Show response
Michael detailed Q1: ~$100M sequential revenue decline (organic -1%), plus 3% FX headwind, plus restructuring/tax headwinds = Q1 EPS at ~22% of full year vs typical 23-24%.
MMM3M Company12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
trying to understand what you're assuming for how much that sort of reverses
Show response
Brown said pre-buy will wash out in Q2 but acceleration continues on fundamentals of NPI and commercial excellence.
just want to gauge sort of how much sequentially or year-on-year EPS should grow in Q2
Show response
Maheshwari gave detailed Q2 guide: organic >3%, operating margin ~24.5%, EPS growth >$0.05 QoQ. First half to deliver ~$0.30-plus EPS growth.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Is there an impression that that is really all self-help initiatives that you mentioned and the outgrowth
Show response
Bill quantified 2026 outgrowth at $300M+ vs macro, split roughly half from NPI and half from commercial excellence, accelerating from 2025.
I just wanted to understand the degree to which, if any, there was a back-end loading, in the guide.
Show response
Anurag confirmed first half and second half will be equally loaded on both revenue growth rate and EPS, with productivity evenly spread.
Calendar 2025 Q3
we've had some questions from investors around the movement in claims recently on personal injury in the last
Show response
Bill described 3 risk areas, public water settled, AG cases ongoing, and personal injury bellwether removed with ~14,000 cases now vetting.
I think in the sort of TE business group. Margins were fairly sort of -- it was down slightly in the third quarter
Show response
Bill cited mix and PFAS stranded costs as the main headwinds on TEBG margins, noting SIBG and CBG both up 200bps in Q3.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Often your third quarter earnings are up a little bit sequentially, but I understand you had that $0.06 gain
Show response
Anurag guided 2.5% organic growth in H2, with Q3 ~52% and Q4 ~48% of H2 EPS driven by typical Q3 seasonality in revenue and margin.
I'm just trying to understand within General Industrial and Safety, the improvement there based on sort of self-help
Show response
Bill said IPI ~2%, PMI 49%, GDP mid-2s all moving laterally; H2 improvement principally from self-help, with A&D, electrical markets and new products driving back-half growth.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Maybe I just wanted to follow-up on the organic sales outlook first off. So I think you mentioned early on
Show response
Anurag said Q2 at or slightly better than Q1 with H1/H2 split equally; industrial growth momentum continues; electronics and auto weaker than expected; consumer to pick up through year.
around the tariffs impact. So I think it's sort of in the in-year framework, it's sort of $0.60 gross headwind
Show response
Anurag said 90-day inventory means most impact hits in H2; Q2 only a couple pennies within guidance; cost mitigation fastest, pricing next, offensive strategy toward end of year and into 2026.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you've talked about that sort of $250 million, $260 million COGS productivity number, so as a sort of annual placeholder
Show response
Bill explained $450M is companywide including SG&A and one quarter of TSA reimbursement overlap; 2% COGS net productivity remains the structural goal; Investor Day will provide medium-term framework.
you had mentioned sort of 1.70-ish of EPS adjusted in Q1. The first half is just under $4
Show response
Anurag said $0.15 equity comp headwind in Q1 (tailwind Q2); Q1 operational EPS growth $0.20-$0.25, non-op drag $0.08-$0.10; Q1 earnings flat YoY, Q2 growth $0.25-$0.30; H1/H2 roughly equal.
PNRPentair12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
is the core assumption that market sell-through is pretty flat year on year each quarter in terms of volumes
Show response
CEO confirmed sell-in pressure concentrated in Q2-Q3 with sell-through assumed flat. Sets up better dynamics heading into 2027 pool season.
You have a slightly lower sales guide because of the Pool uncertainty, but I think you pushed up your op profit guide slightly
Show response
CEO explained lower international volumes offset by positive North America mix and continued transformation execution. Mix benefit supports margins despite lower revenue.
Calendar 2025 Q4
it implies that volumes conversely start the year down decently and then have a nice bounce in the back half. Maybe help us understand what's driving that volume assumption
Show response
CEO confirmed decremental volume in H1 with incremental in H2 for flat full-year. Business investments expected to read out in Pool Q2+ and commercial water Q2+. Easier compares in H2 as prior-year inventory buy-in fades.
Are you seeing any sign of that behavior sort of becoming more prevalent at distributors
Show response
CEO acknowledged China-based competition in cleaners (which Pentair doesn't participate in) and non-tech products. For technologically advanced automation/IoT products, no China impact on outcomes. Focus on fully automated pad solutions.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just sort of trying to understand the sort of entry rate into the New Year. You talked about I think, the sort of long-term algorithm of mid-single-digit growth on Slide five.
Show response
CFO cited tailwinds: business momentum, 1-2% price carryover, market recoveries from low base, 8020 Quad 1 focus reading out, and large transformation funnel. CEO cautioned on tariffs, high rates, consumer sentiment.
it looks like sort of guide for the fourth quarter implies less than 100 bps of operating margin expansion year on year. You've clearly done well above that year to date
Show response
CFO said Q4 guide includes room for investment while still delivering ROS expansion across all segments. Pleased with full-year story and expects strong year-end finish.
Calendar 2025 Q2
help us understand the confidence in that acceleration in the back half in Water
Show response
CFO noted residential portfolio rationalization has one more quarter in Q3 then stabilizes. Commercial water disappointed in Q2 on softer foodservice but expects low-to-mid single digit growth in H2.
I just wanted to understand a little bit better the moving parts on the sort of op profit or EBITDA guide
Show response
CFO broke down: ~$0.05 from business/income (~$10M), ~$0.02 from lower interest expense due to strong FCF in Q2.
Calendar 2025 Q1
help us understand the volume of some growth sales guide, do you assume a sort of offset, you know, one for one of higher price
Show response
CEO explained volume expected to decline roughly one-for-one with price increases. Residential recovery put on upside, not in base case.
the sort of $140 million gross, is that an annualized number or is that sort of in year in fiscal 2025?
Show response
CFO confirmed $140M is in-year 2025 (slightly higher annualized). Impact split roughly equally across three segments.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Maybe help us kind of understand how you're thinking about the first half as a share of the year in terms of earnings?
Show response
CEO explained Q1 is last quarter of tough comps from prior year channel loading. Tariff impact minimal in Q1, spreading Q2-Q4.
Maybe help us understand kind of where inventories as you see it among your distributors right now?
Show response
CFO confirmed distributor inventory and early buy are at normalized historical levels. Guiding new pools and aftermarket each up low-single-digits.
TTTrane Technologies12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Any big differences you're seeing on the one-step versus two-step sort of movement there?
Show response
Regnery confirmed channel inventory is properly positioned. Outlook raised from down 5% to flattish. Expressed increasing bullishness on residential business.
walk us through how we should think about the operating leverage playing out through the balance of the year organically
Show response
Kuehn provided clear quarterly leverage trajectory. Regnery added context on resi level-loading creating near-term absorption impact that reverses in H2.
Calendar 2025 Q4
with lead times and so forth, should we expect a decent acceleration in Americas Commercial HVAC revenue growth in the back half of the year ahead?
Show response
CFO laid out full quarterly cadence for Americas Commercial HVAC: Q1 7-8%, Q2 10%, H2 low teens. CEO confirmed similar story in Europe with H1 high single-digit orders converting first, H2 high-teen orders following.
help us understand the confidence in that leaning out of inventory having largely already happened? And any update you could give on pricing in that market?
Show response
CEO emphasized intentional inventory correction. CFO confirmed pricing has not faded, with Q4 weakness driven by volume not pricing. Q1 faces tough comps with prior year up high teens.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you've moved to sort of 30% plus there on the organic front, it's a bit higher than before
Show response
CFO attributed 30%+ leverage to volume leverage on CHVAC, discretionary cost control, and structural cost takeout, while explicitly preserving strategic investments.
what's your comfort level that price discipline can hold up as this inventory destock plays out?
Show response
CFO confirmed Q3 price above 3 points, full-year split ~3% price / 3% volume. CEO noted industry has remained disciplined on residential pricing.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is the sort of Americas framework, it's kind of high single-digit organic growth both Q3 and Q4
Show response
CFO detailed Q3 at 6% organic with residential down high single digits, Q4 at ~9% with easier comps. Residential $150M reduction weighted more to Q3.
help us understand on the cylinder point, the sort of progress on getting that resolved
Show response
CEO said cylinder issue 90-95% resolved by July 30. No structural problems in residential; too early to assess repair-vs-replace shifts given the Q2 noise.
Calendar 2025 Q1
if there's been any sort of shift in specific verticals that you've seen in recent months in terms of demand or orders?
Show response
CEO confirmed record Commercial HVAC orders with broad-based vertical growth. CFO noted applied expected to outpace unitary for full year.
flesh those out a little bit. And in the resi market, specifically, I think you're very clear that there was no pre-buy impact evident in Q1
Show response
CFO detailed surgical pricing and surcharge approach to offset tariffs dollar for dollar. CEO confirmed no visible pre-buy impact in Q1 but elevated channel inventory of $75-100M.
Calendar 2024 Q4
a lot of investors would have expected maybe a slow start to the year and then an acceleration because of resi HVAC recovering from the pre-buy headwind
Show response
CFO explained Q1 headwinds from transport/resi are offset by Commercial HVAC strength, yielding 6-7% organic revenue growth guidance.
is it sort of a similar 1- to 2-point price tailwind in the sales mix? And any sort of concerns about customers
Show response
CFO detailed 1-1.5 points from price and 5.5-6.5% from volume. A2L pricing (high single digits on 65% of portfolio) reported in volume, not price.
DOVDover Corporation11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
you had, I think, 10% revenue growth all in, in Q1. EBITDA margins company-wide were up basis points, though. You've gone through sort of in DCST maybe why the operating leverage picks up later in ...
Show response
Rich identified retail fueling as additional margin inflection candidate on volume leverage and mix; DPPS at current levels would be pleasing; overall expects Q2-Q3 to be highest profit quarters on seasonal volume leverage.
you said that the pace of bookings was sort of steady in the last several months, but you had very good bookings growth, which you said is a function not of pre-buy, but customers sort of placing o...
Show response
Rich confirmed no prebuy or tariff-spike; pricing was announced at year start (any pull-forward would have been in Q4); pacing from Q4 rolled through Q1 consistently in the targeted secular growth segments.
Calendar 2025 Q4
maybe help us understand in DCEF and DCS what sort of operating leverage you're aiming for this year
Show response
Rich confirmed DCEF gets most restructuring benefit (back-half loaded); DCST saw 250bps jump in Q4 with further upside on volume, though copper exposure may require pricing action.
should we expect, let's say, year-on-year EPS growth and sales growth each quarter to not be that different from the full-year framework
Show response
Rich confirmed normal seasonality for 2026; cautioned against consensus Q1 estimates that were oddly high given biopharma comp.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I wondered if any of the segment revenue assumptions for this year have changed since the figures you guided for in July
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Rich acknowledged refrigeration miss is significant (1-2% of organic); offsetting positive is biopharma proved sustainable (not restocking) and thermal connectors remained consistent; some Q4 revenue cushion built in.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Was the broad sort of sense of demand in recent months, the book-to-bill, I suppose, in the second quarter may be a touch below plan
Show response
Rich identified only refrigeration as below booking expectations; overall sequential book-to-bill trend is consistent with 5-year seasonal patterns, and July momentum is encouraging.
Is that the way to think about it. And I suppose the more back-end loaded type ramps are at DEP and DCST?
Show response
Rich confirmed gradual acceleration pattern with some Q4 room; hit 25% consolidated EBITDA which was previously unthinkable; may increase Q4 production if order rates accelerate.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is the main assumption that the net, dollar tariff effect for the full year is around zero
Show response
Rich acknowledged net-neutral price/tariff is margin-dilutive but quantum is small enough to be absorbed by mix; only vehicle services in EP has meaningful Chinese tariff exposure.
it's still an acceleration versus the first quarter. So maybe sort of help us understand which businesses you're most confident in will see that step up in growth
Show response
Rich explained normal seasonal pattern (low Q1, step-up Q2/Q3); Q2 backlog provides high confidence; trimmed back half is a prudence adjustment pending visibility.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you did see some very encouraging signs exiting the year in below ground and vehicle wash
Show response
Rich identified CEF as the largest absolute profit contributor YoY, driven by restructuring benefits, growth mix, and prior-period acquisition calendarization.
remind us of kind of the main exposures there because it looks like the volumes there were down in the fourth quarter
Show response
Rich attributed Q4 EP softness to tough comps from large prior-year A&D shipments, noting the business is bigger than ever due to acquisitions and posted to grow in 2025.
JCIJohnson Controls11 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
just flesh that out on what it meant and what it means for your EMEA business and anything that you've assumed for improvement or deterioration
Show response
Joakim quantified the impact clearly: 2-3% of total revenue, 10%+ of EMEA, with ~1/3 impacted in the quarter. Not anticipating full return in Q3 but hoping for normalization by Q4.
How are you thinking about the operating leverage for that segment in the back half? And I wondered really if there's been any change to your assumption around sort of gross cost headwinds
Show response
Marc noted Americas Q2 margin improvement came from growth/leverage with some productivity headwind from capacity ramp-up. Section 232 tariffs have minimal impact as chillers are excluded.
Calendar 2025 Q4
with that very high order growth and your lead times of you've made good progress bringing those down. I would have thought you'd get some translation of that into revenue this fiscal year
Show response
Backlog supports mid-single-digit guide. H1 on lower end, H2 on higher end. Customer availability and acceptance timing are pacing factors, not JCI capacity constraints.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is the right way to think about it that you've got a sort of traditional segment EBITA operating leverage of sort of high 20s percent
Show response
Segment leverage solidly in the 30s (above 30% algorithm). Restructuring/transformation benefits layer on top. Will normalize back to 30%+ beyond FY2027.
I think some of your competitors are growing at a much faster pace in revenues right now
Show response
Weidemanis firmly denied market share loss. Confident in backlog, order pipeline, and vertical positioning. Competitor comparisons may reflect different segment definitions.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is the sort of construct that, that -- or those related headwinds last sort of through the first half of next fiscal year
Show response
Tariff recovery mostly dollar-for-dollar without margin. Stranded costs from Resi divestiture also dampening. Fire product gaps in detection noted; Security has differentiation opportunities.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what are your initial impressions of the fire and security portfolio?
Show response
Acknowledged strong franchises but too early for conclusions. Exploring whether different franchises should play different roles. Part of broader strategy review.
Second half looks like it's guided sort of flattish year-on-year. Just wondered how much of that is a tariff margin rate headwind
Show response
Tariff recovery is dollar-for-dollar without margin, dampening rate expansion. BSNA margin pressure partly offset by re-segmentation benefits. Momentum unchanged over time.
Calendar 2024 Q4
the sort of pace of stranded cost reduction and the exit rate into 2026 for that line
Show response
Corporate cost reduction weighted to H2 and especially FY2026 after ADTI and residential divestiture close. Stranded costs are being addressed proactively.
give any more detail on the tariff perspective in terms of share of costs or production from some of the affected areas
Show response
Discussed regional manufacturing strategy and history of passing tariffs through. Acknowledged uncertainty but lacked specific cost quantification.
Calendar 2024 Q3
the phasing of the $500 million of sort of cost-out savings and how much of that is reflected
Show response
Marc said costs precede benefits ($400M ahead of $500M), with about half the $400M in the FY2025 guide; exact timing depends on the divestiture close.
OTISOtis Worldwide11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
is the expectation now it's maybe kind of 2% or 3% maintenance portfolio growth, and then you're trying to kind of squeeze out more
Show response
Judy confirmed lower unit growth (value over volume strategy). Revenue per unit improvement starts showing beyond 2026 guidance. Already up 5% organically this quarter. Repair and mod backlog conversion provide line of sight for H2 2026 and EPS guide.
I wondered if there was any shift I mean our understanding is that maybe China service pricing very difficult U.S. service pricing, maybe a little bit more pressure
Show response
Judy: China service revenue now 52% of China sales (first time exceeding NE since spin). China 9% of total Otis revenue. Americas not seeing different maintenance structure despite ISP consolidation by PE, same competitors with different brands. No additional competitive pricing challenges. Cristina: $50M pricing improvement plus Middle East cost pass-through makes pricing a 'tremendous tailwind' in H2.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Any help you could give us how to think about the phasing of that $0.23 increase in the remaining nine months, please?
Show response
Judy referenced 2025 cadence ($0.03 H1, $0.09 Q3, $0.10 Q4) and said intent is not to repeat back-half dependence. Growth should start appearing more visibly in Q2 2026. Did not provide specific quarterly breakdown.
I think you had 92% retention end of 2024. Where was that sort of ending 2025?
Show response
Judy confirmed retention stabilized in Americas, APAC, EMEA (stopped erosion). China structurally different (annual renewals, no auto-renewal). Portfolio growth may moderate from 4% to 3%+ consciously, shifting to higher-value units that drive more revenue per unit in maintenance, repair, and eventual mod.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you've had this trend in Q3 and recent years, where the adjusted operating margins rise year-on-year, but the free cash flow margin falls
Show response
Cristina attributed FCF shortfall to NE-to-Service mix shift (NE has favorable working capital from advance payments). Temporary until NE stabilizes. Q4 targeting ~$700M. Mod working capital similar to NE (advances). Expects 100% conversion by 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q2
that margin step-up is happening, I suppose, despite a bigger tariff headwind later in the year. Maybe just help us understand sort of what's the puts and takes
Show response
Cristina noted tariff headwind ~10-20bps margin in H2 but offset by Service mix improvement (repair/mod acceleration), UpLift final wave execution, and China transformation H2 savings of $15M.
you've sort of got the same free cash flow. It looks like the -- in dollars for 4 years running now despite on -- over that period, sort of mid-single-digit sales growth
Show response
Cristina explained NE decline (favorable working capital from advance payments) vs Service growth (bills after service rendered) creates temporary mix headwind. No structural change in payment terms. Will normalize when NE stabilizes.
Calendar 2025 Q1
organic sales in the quarter, you were sort of flattish. The year's guided up. Call it three. So is that acceleration year-on-year just kind of steady each quarter through the year?
Show response
Judy confirmed steady Q2-Q4 acceleration from repair and mod conversion. Cristina detailed: NE sales decline in H1 (lower backlog), improve H2; Service accelerates to 6% in Q2; margins flattish H1, +10bps H2.
is the right way to think about it, it's kind of, you know, $60 million dialed in. That does include some mitigation efforts
Show response
Judy confirmed range reflects ongoing mitigation efforts including supply shifts. Not stopping work on reducing impact job-by-job and customer-by-customer.
Calendar 2024 Q4
should we expect that New Equipment backlog or RPO to be up exiting 2025? Is that kind of the core assumption
Show response
Judy detailed regional backlog: Americas down mid-single (strong 2024 deliveries), EMEA up mid-single, AP up low teens. Did not directly confirm whether backlog would be up at year-end 2025.
I think, Cristina, you talked about flattish sort of EPS in the first half and then a stronger second half. So I just wanted to follow-up on that
Show response
Cristina confirmed Service level-loaded throughout year while NE challenged in H1 due to lower backlog and tougher comps. H2 benefits from transformation initiatives flowing through.
PHParker Hannifin11 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
it looks as if diversified industrial backlog was just over $4 billion at the end of March
Show response
Todd confirmed both backlogs improved and sees it as a positive signal. Orders have outpaced revenue for several quarters, building backlog support for future growth.
could you flesh out the sub-segment assumptions on aerospace—what you are expecting in Q4 for the major pieces
Show response
Jennifer provided comprehensive Q3 and Q4 breakdowns. Raising commercial OEM to low-20s, commercial MRO to low-teens. Defense OEM mid-single-digit, defense MRO low single-digit, both unchanged. Full-year aerospace raised to 12%.
Calendar 2025 Q4
When we look at Q4, sort of which of those growth rates as you see it are most different from the full year numbers?
Show response
Jenny highlighted off-highway as the biggest positive trajectory change (negative → neutral → positive). Aerospace continues to increase. Other industrial markets maintained from initial guidance. Transportation unchanged at negative mid-single digits through fiscal year.
within A&D, if you could just refresh us perhaps on the end market outlooks for the various pieces for fiscal '26
Show response
Jenny provided detailed A&D sub-segment updates: commercial OEM raised to ~20% (from mid-teens), commercial aftermarket raised to low double-digit (from high single-digit, was 13% in Q1), defense OEM unchanged at mid-single-digit, defense aftermarket lowered slightly to low single-digit (from mid-single-digit).
Calendar 2025 Q3
It did seem to surprise you positively, I think, in the quarter. How has demand moved there in recent months?
Show response
Jenny attributed NA upside to aero/defense in industrial, distribution, HVAC, electronics. Construction outperformed. Q2 expected similar at 2%. Full year NA raised to 2% from 1%.
your Q2 EPS guide is a decline sequentially, which is quite unusual in Q2. Any color on that, please
Show response
Todd said Q2 is typically the softest quarter for top line, and the EPS pattern reflects that. Nothing abnormal about the sequential step-down.
Calendar 2025 Q2
help us understand within Industrial, what's dialed in for sort of the first quarter, and then the slope of that acceleration on organic sales
Show response
Jenny provided detailed Q1 industrial organic: NA -1.5%, International +0.5%. Gave extensive color on each vertical for NA and International. Total industrial roughly flat first half, positive second half.
Calendar 2025 Q1
put a finer point on some of the aerospace growth trends sort of in the fourth quarter as you see it
Show response
Jenny provided detailed breakdown: commercial OEM mid-single digit, defense OEM low single-digit, commercial MRO high-teens, defense MRO high-teens (retrofits and DOD partnerships).
the jaws widening between industrial organic orders and sales trends that's been apparent for a couple of quarters
Show response
Jenny explained transformed portfolio with more longer-cycle business means order-to-shipment connection has extended. Industrial backlog was $3.7B, up 2% YoY and 5% sequentially.
Calendar 2024 Q4
trying to understand why there is a worse outlook in North America? Is it -- because you talked about the HVAC and A&D strength on Slide 8
Show response
Jenny confirmed North America's worse outlook is due to greater weighting of industrial business. Todd added international decline started a quarter earlier, improving comps.
Calendar 2024 Q3
My question today is sort of around that $0.15 divestment headwind. Wondering, if you could maybe break down how that affects each quarter
Show response
Todd detailed the $0.15 divestiture EPS headwind cadence: about $0.01 in Q2, $0.05 in Q3, and $0.08 in Q4 as the deal closes in the second quarter.
ALLEAllegion10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
should we expect that this year is a bit more back-end loaded than normal in terms of kind of first half, second half EPS contribution?
Show response
Mike declined quarterly EPS guidance but confirmed Americas Q2 not expansionary, International Q2 softer than prior year, margin expansion concentrated in back half.
How are you thinking about that sort of play out over the balance of the year?
Show response
Mike expects Americas full-year PPII dollar-positive with margin expansion. International tougher. Enterprise-level approximates Americas. Back-half weighted. 35%+ core incrementals expected for remainder.
Calendar 2025 Q3
it looks like perhaps you're assuming they pick up again with some margin expansion of a few tens of basis points in the fourth quarter. Just wanted to check if that was the right assumption
Show response
Mike confirmed full-year and Q4 margin expansion expected. Corporate Q3 spike was comp-driven; run rate consistent with recent quarters.
should we assume that, that sort of gross price of about 4 or 5 points is a good placeholder and PPII stays as a decent tailwind?
Show response
Mike confirmed tariff pricing lag resolved as year progressed, Q3 showed improvement. Long-term 35% incrementals reiterated but deferred specific 2026 guidance to February.
Calendar 2025 Q2
You've got a slight acceleration, I suppose, in organic sales growth dialed in for the second half versus the first half performance
Show response
Mike explained H2 acceleration driven by 3 quarters of $40M tariff surcharge revenue vs 1 quarter in H1. Non-res continues strong.
Maybe if you could help us with kind of that EPS guide raise, $0.30 plus or so versus a few months ago, which are sort of the biggest pieces
Show response
Mike attributed raise to FX (international), acquisitions ($0.15-$0.20 full year), and strong first-half operational performance. Not back-end loaded.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what are you seeing in the replacement market demand right now, leaving aside the pre buy and hangover
Show response
John described soft resi fundamentals driven by high mortgage rates. Aftermarket ~70% of resi business. Focus on electronic innovation as differentiator.
should we assume that you can kind of keep that line sort of around zero for the balance of the year
Show response
Mike confirmed PPII expected neutral for full year. Q4 headwind recovered in Q1. Q2 timing lag from tariffs but full year breakeven.
Calendar 2024 Q4
are we sort of assuming it's a few tens of basis points of margin expansion that's in the guide? And is there any kind of acceleration in there year-on-year in the back half versus the first half
Show response
Mike confirmed margin expansion expected at lower end of 50-100bps framework, with 2025 seasonality similar to 2024.
Is it sort of embedding residential up kind of low-single-digits, non-residential organic sales up mid-single-digits
Show response
Management confirmed non-res stronger than resi but declined to give specific breakdowns. Electronics growth expected to outpace mechanical.
LIILennox International10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
do you see any competitive implications from that cost base movement? And sort of tied to that, how is the price elasticity of volume playing out in HCS
Show response
CEO said commodity and Section 232 impacts hit all manufacturers, creating no competitive disadvantage. CFO quantified spot moves since last guidance: aluminum up 25%, steel 20-25%, diesel 50%, copper 10-15%. Hedging programs and fixed contracts cover ~70%.
Is it fair to say that you've sort of got a flattish operating margin dialed in total company for the year
Show response
CFO confirmed overall margin now expected slightly down versus prior slight increase, due to higher revenue and costs. BCS organic margins up, HCS organic margins down. M&A creates a slight drag at the enterprise level.
Calendar 2025 Q4
is it fair to say the full-year guide is embedding operating margins down slightly maybe year on year
Show response
CFO confirmed 20bps EBIT margin expansion for FY2026, fourth consecutive year. BCS margins up more, HCS flat to slightly down. Revenue seasonality shifts to ~47/53 H1/H2 split versus 50/50 in 2025, with incrementals at 35%.
maybe last year, the market was I don't know, seven three seven four million units, and the sellout just under 8 million
Show response
CEO said sell-in was heavily impacted by destocking and its end leads to automatic improvement. Repair-vs-replace assumed to stabilize, not reverse. Dealer confidence on 454B described as the best news, though consumer confidence remains very low.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the guidance implies sort of flattish operating margins year on year in the fourth quarter. Wondered within that if you could unpack maybe any sense of magnitude
Show response
CFO confirmed full-year 50bps margin expansion still on track. Q4 implies 20% decremental. Absorption headwind from production cuts will also carry into Q1 2026 since inventory is already built for the summer season.
how quickly you think you can get back to some kind of volume growth in the coming quarters, assuming inventory reduction takes maybe another six months
Show response
CEO said things are no longer getting worse and green shoots are emerging from furnace season, easing macro concerns, and improving sentiment. Expects meaningful growth from Q2 2026 when destocking ends, with 2026 being a growth year for both segments.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Just wanted to confirm the sort of full year EPS guide, is that embedding kind of 50, 60 bps of operating margin expansion, that type of rate
Show response
CFO confirmed 50bps full-year margin expansion with both halves contributing equally. HCS slightly above 50bps, BCS closer to flat. Both segments expected to show margin expansion in second half.
would you argue that the second quarter represents a more natural performance given where we are in the A2L cycle and plant productivity
Show response
CEO confirmed Q2 is a better gauge of normalized margins than Q1, which was distorted by manufacturing inefficiencies from the A2L conversion and the sales air pocket.
Calendar 2025 Q1
are you just assuming sort of one-for-one offset or elasticity there of higher price equals the volume reduction
Show response
CEO explained the 6% price increase and 6% volume decline are nearly equal but driven by different factors. Volume decline reflects new construction weakness and consumer confidence, not direct elasticity.
Calendar 2024 Q4
people have been concerned about the revenue outlook there because you don't have AI exposure or what have you in BCS
Show response
CEO dismissed AI exposure concerns, noting their end markets remain healthy. Emphasized replacement volumes are non-discretionary and the new factory addresses supply constraints.
ROPRoper Technologies8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 2 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
is it fair to say that the sort of core EBITDA guide is essentially unchanged and it's really a kind of share count-driven guide?
Show response
Jason confirmed guidance raise is Q1 beat flow-through plus buyback share count benefit. Ending Q1 share count 102.4M. No additional buybacks assumed beyond what's already executed. Neil added Q1 beat was partially operational and partially buyback.
what you're seeing in that business? And sort of what's dialed in for that transport linked business in the U.S. for the balance of the year
Show response
Neil confirmed carrier count grew for first time in 2-3 years, a real green shoot, especially in H2 of quarter. But cautioned about intra-quarter volatility in that metric historically. Diesel costs pressuring carrier margins. Rates up 20-30%. No improvement underwritten in guidance.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you had the backlog declining there for sort of 2-plus years. The revenue growth is slowing a little bit. So I just wondered sort of what's the confidence that, that organic growth on revenue doesn...
Show response
Neil distinguished backlog decline (COVID-era blanket orders normalizing to pre-COVID 2-quarter visibility) from demand environment. Current year and possibly next are normalized growth after 2-3 years of accelerated post-COVID growth.
could that be a bigger headwind to core margin expansion in future? And whether there's been any view to sort of looking to acquire more AI-intensive businesses
Show response
Jason said R&D envelope likely stays same with productivity gains from frontier models (Claude Code, Codex, Cursor). Not seeing margin headwind from AI investment. Will do small AI tuck-ins like Aderant acquisition for faster time-to-market but not primary AI strategy.
Calendar 2025 Q1
the assumption of an acceleration to maybe 8% plus growth in the back half, the confidence there? And is there anything outside of foundry that's turning around
Show response
Neil emphasized TTM bookings up low double digits feeding revenue conversion. Jason cited DAT improvement, Neptune easy Q3 comp, and NDI strength supporting TEP.
you had this sort of 30 bps headwind, I guess, to the EBITDA margin year-on-year in first quarter. How are you sort of thinking about that play out
Show response
Jason confirmed core margin expansion continuing. Acquisition margins improve with Transact seasonal Q3 ramp and CentralReach coming in at low-40s EBITDA margins.
Calendar 2024 Q4
should we think about sort of core margins maybe up slightly and then the headline margin flat and that sort of back-half loaded
Show response
Jason confirmed core margins up with segment-level improvement, headline impacted by Transact seasonal margin profile (50% EBITDA in Q3), meaning H1 margin drag before H2 recovery.
maybe home in a little bit what you're expecting for Neptune. I think there's some noise around various kind of meters businesses
Show response
Neil confirmed Neptune strength at ~40% of segment with clean comps entering 2025. Jason added distributors are restocking significantly and backlog normalizing to pre-COVID one-to-two-month levels.
SWKStanley Black & Decker7 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Just wanted to home in a little bit more on the Tools & Outdoor volume environment. The outdoor pickup, I suppose, is encouraging
Show response
Nelson attributed outdoor strength to channel optimism and strong order fulfillment execution. Underlying demand relatively flattish but positioned for upside. Q2 inflection expected from lapping prior-year promotional disruptions and honed promotional strategies.
any more color you could kind of give us on how you're thinking about that price net of cost delta in that gross margin guidance that you laid out on Slide 8
Show response
Hallinan said 2026 price plan consistent with opening guidance. Quarterly promo mix can swing reported pricing by ~100bps. Tariff tailwinds from 122s offset by battery metals, tungsten, and oil-derivative inflation. If inflation persists, may address in H2 or early 2027 pricing.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I just wanted to dial in a little bit more into the cadence of the gross and operating margin performance for the year. I think you said gross margin is flat year on year in the first quarter, up 1...
Show response
Hallinan provided quarterly gross margin cadence: Q1 ~30.5%, Q2 between that and 31%, Q3/Q4 each 34-35%. First half weighed down by peak tariff expense (~100bps/quarter) and volume deleverage (~100bps+/quarter) rolling off balance sheet.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you're assuming operating profit up a few tens of millions of dollars sequentially with flattish sales. And is that all really coming from this extra price increase?
Show response
Hallinan detailed Q4 profit expansion from both gross margin (targeting ~33%) and SG&A reduction (~$40M YoY savings). For 2026, targeting 35% by Q4 via strategic sourcing, platforming, lean, and facility decisions.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what's the kind of Q4 or exit gross margin that you're embedding for this year? And as you think into next year, I realize that the cost productivity program, the $2 billion number is largely in th...
Show response
Hallinan guided Q4 gross margin at 33-34%, with 1.5-2pp YoY expansion in Q3 and 2pp+ in Q4. Expects mid-30s by back half of 2026 with tariffs creating 9-12 month delay to 35%.
Calendar 2025 Q1
How does that differ maybe from the phasing of that $1 billion gross headwind in the P&L? And maybe, Pat, sort of allied to that, from the outside, it's a little bit confusing of sort of the flows ...
Show response
Allan explained Q2 will be barely positive on pretax earnings due to heavy LIFO tariff burden. Price expected to fully catch up to tariff expense by early Q3.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what exit gross margin rates we should assume from this year. And on the operating margin line, I think the guide implies maybe 150 bps or so of increase
Show response
Hallinan provided detailed H1/H2 cadence: 100+ bps in first half, 300+ in back half, exiting Q4 between 34-35% gross margin.
AMEAmetek6 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
is the sort of guide based off a steady improvement year-on-year in operating leverage as you go through 2026
Show response
Zapico detailed Q1 core incrementals exceeded 50% for both EIG and EMG. Full year guide assumes 35% incrementals with core margins up about 50 basis points. Described guide as prudent given inflation uncertainty.
are you kind of baking in like a mid-single-digit exit rate on organic growth for EMG just because of the comps
Show response
Zapico confirmed mid-single-digit EMG organic growth exit rate is the right framework given tougher comps in second half, including in medical segment.
Calendar 2025 Q4
were there things moving around on specific markets within the orders
Show response
Organic orders +7% in Q4, similar pattern to Q3. Both EIG and EMG up. Book-to-bill 1.02. EMG businesses picked up first, EIG process following later, typical historical pattern. EIG process expected to inflect more strongly during 2026.
what degree of of sort of deceleration just from tougher comps
Show response
EIG organic growth likely accelerates through 2026 as process inflects. EMG faces tougher comps in H2 after strong 2025. Acquisition contribution steps down through the year as anniversaries are reached.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I think it's still sluggish right now, but you sounded more optimistic on next year
Show response
Process orders trending up in all areas except China (where research/academia overlap with tariff delays). Government shutdown has been a nonevent so far.
if you could help us understand kind of the progress there in terms of organic trends
Show response
FARO met sales and profit targets. Won't show in organic until owned 1 year. Teams working on new products and channels with Creaform. Management spent time with FARO team recently.
EMREmerson Electric6 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
you have in Q3 and Q4 a mid-single-digit sequential revenue increase dialed in and kind of high-30s operating leverage
Show response
CFO confirmed mid-single-digit sequential and YoY growth, noting leverage will be better than high-30s in H2 when excluding software renewal dynamic.
You have taken a little bit down on the revenue line; the EPS dollar guide low end, though, has moved up
Show response
CFO explained margin in the roundings, no fundamental change. Middle East region has lower margins so the lost revenue has less margin impact.
Calendar 2025 Q4
it a surprise to you what those orders did or it was sort of in the plan based on what you knew of the dollar value of orders
Show response
Baughman acknowledged 9% wasn't expected, some Q2 projects pulled into Q1. But trailing four-quarter pattern (+4%, +4%, +6%, +9%) at 6% trailing twelve-month is consistent with plan. Second-half acceleration supported by backlog phasing.
second half of the year, I think you're dialing in kind of 40s type operating leverage year on year
Show response
Baughman confirmed high 30s full-year leverage expectation, with Q1 at mid-30s when adjusted for software renewals. Krishnan added sequential H2-to-H1 growth of mid-to-high single digits should lever in the 40s with margins trending toward 28%+.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you're guiding still for high single digit growth later in the year despite the sort of pretty tough comp there
Show response
High confidence in semiconductor, aerospace/defense, and portfolio. Automotive and packaging machine-making remain weak, especially in Western Europe.
Calendar 2024 Q3
So just wanted to sort of check that and what's embedded for Test & Measurement and how we think about sort of any first half versus second half
Show response
Krishnan confirmed mid-single-digit growth for all three segments. T&M orders expected high single digits but sales mid-single due to backlog consumption.
GEVGE Vernova6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
why you think you are so well placed to continue to take more share in that Power Transmission sleeve of the segment
Show response
Scott emphasized integrated solutions (power generation + electrical equipment + EMS) as the competitive advantage, not share-taking per se. Prolec adds three U.S. factories plus Mexico and Brazil. Ken confirmed tariff impact of $250-350M net is fully in the outlook, with Section 232 having slightly more Prolec impact offset by lower impact elsewhere.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how serious do you think the threat of market share gains from that plethora of smaller players is? And do you think that they could have some negative effects on pricing in the equipment market as...
Show response
Strazik reiterated SRA pricing 10-20 points above backlog, dismissed small turbine competition as complementary rather than substitutive. 20-year economics favor heavy-duty efficiency at baseload. Parks noted GEV plays in aero derivatives too with 63 units booked in 2025.
Calendar 2025 Q3
if we look at the Power equipment, dollar orders year-to-date or in the third quarter and that increase versus the gigawatt orders in gas, there is a very large positive delta on that dollar growth...
Show response
Strazik attributed dollar/GW divergence to aero vs heavy-duty mix and simple vs combined cycle booking timing. Confirmed stronger price and margin trends in Q3 for gas turbines. Equipment backlog margin growth of $6B floor from prior 2 years will be at least matched, with potential to be substantially higher.
Calendar 2025 Q2
give a bit more color on the regional differences. It seems like Europe is maybe losing steam, Asia, picking up. And pricing
Show response
Strazik noted HVDC projects face more scrutiny/cancellations in EU on affordability, but core transformer/switchgear orders remain strong; pricing decelerating but still positive.
Calendar 2025 Q1
it looks like the first half in both power and electrification, you should be at the full-year margin numbers
Show response
Parks noted Q1 is the smallest quarter, tariff costs are a new variable not in original guide, and both power and electrification are running at or better than expected early in the year.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you're guiding for low single digits growth starting out the year organically, you've got that mid single-digit guide for the year
Show response
Strazik explained the slower Q1 pace reflects backlog rollout timing, not weakening demand, with 90% of volumes already in backlog providing strong visibility.
ETNEaton Corporation5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 1 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
overall firm-wide EPS, is the sort of guide based on a $4 type number in Q4
Show response
Paulo confirmed the Q4 EPS ramp to ~$4 implied by guidance. Drivers are pricing already implemented and manufacturing leverage from ramp-up investments. Dave added benefit from reducing support costs as percentage of sales in H2.
Calendar 2025 Q2
perhaps the most notable thing from the release this morning was the cut to the high end of the EPS guidance
Show response
Olivier redirected focus to $0.07 midpoint raise, explaining puts and takes: AI/frontline investments, Vehicle/eMobility weakness, resi softness, offset by segment beats averaging $0.25.
as you get more capacity, you can recognize the backlog more quickly in revenue. So the backlog shrinks
Show response
Olivier stated backlog unlikely to decrease given book-to-bill above 1, with strong Q3 order visibility supporting continued growth.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Aerospace, flat margins for three years, guided to expand this year. Any color on the drivers, please?
Show response
Paulo attributed margin expansion to new leadership mandate for operational improvement, comparing it to the Vehicle margin recovery model.
I just wanted to double check the 45% data center sales growth number on the left-hand side
Show response
Craig clarified data center segment includes IT channel, then provided growth rates across other end markets to help with reconciliation.
VRTVertiv Holdings Co2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 1 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
I suppose, just trying to understand the free cash flow dollar guide is unchanged, and I can see the sort of bigger working cap outflow dialed in
Show response
Craig cited inventory ramp and prudent customer advance assumptions. On capital deployment, both executives highlighted M&A pipeline as very active with optionality for larger deals.
Calendar 2025 Q4
is it the type of orders you got in Q4 that generated some disproportionate amount of deferred revenue inflow
Show response
2026 working capital expected to be positive but ~$80M less favorable year over year. Down payments and progress payments tied to order mix. Q4 advance payments from large orders benefited cash flow. Deferred revenue patterns not marginally different from historical norms.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| ROK Rockwell Automation | 14 | 14%2 of 14 questions |
| CARR Carrier Global | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| FTV Fortive | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | 12 | 8%1 of 12 questions |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | 12 | 8%1 of 12 questions |
| IR Ingersoll Rand | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| MMM 3M Company | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| PNR Pentair | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| TT Trane Technologies | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
- ROKRockwell Automation · 14 questions14%2 of 14 questions
- CARRCarrier Global · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- FTVFortive · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- HONHoneywell International Inc. · 12 questions8%1 of 12 questions
- HUBBHubbell Incorporated · 12 questions8%1 of 12 questions
- IRIngersoll Rand · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- ITWIllinois Tool Works · 12 questions17%2 of 12 questions
- MMM3M Company · 12 questions17%2 of 12 questions
- PNRPentair · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- TTTrane Technologies · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
Show all 23 companies
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| DOV Dover Corporation | 11 | 18%2 of 11 questions |
| JCI Johnson Controls | 11 | 18%2 of 11 questions |
| OTIS Otis Worldwide | 11 | 18%2 of 11 questions |
| PH Parker Hannifin | 11 | 0%none of 11 questions |
| ALLE Allegion | 10 | 0%none of 10 questions |
| LII Lennox International | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions |
| ROP Roper Technologies | 8 | 25%2 of 8 questions |
| SWK Stanley Black & Decker | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| AME Ametek | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| EMR Emerson Electric | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions |
| GEV GE Vernova | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions |
| ETN Eaton Corporation | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions |
| VRT Vertiv Holdings Co | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- DOVDover Corporation · 11 questions18%2 of 11 questions
- JCIJohnson Controls · 11 questions18%2 of 11 questions
- OTISOtis Worldwide · 11 questions18%2 of 11 questions
- PHParker Hannifin · 11 questions0%none of 11 questions
- ALLEAllegion · 10 questions0%none of 10 questions
- LIILennox International · 10 questions10%1 of 10 questions
- ROPRoper Technologies · 8 questions25%2 of 8 questions
- SWKStanley Black & Decker · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- AMEAmetek · 6 questions0%none of 6 questions
- EMREmerson Electric · 6 questions17%1 of 6 questions
- GEVGE Vernova · 6 questions17%1 of 6 questions
- ETNEaton Corporation · 5 questions20%1 of 5 questions
- VRTVertiv Holdings Co · 2 questions—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions | 4 |
| 2024 Q4 | 36 | 6%2 of 36 questions | 20 |
| 2025 Q1 | 35 | 9%3 of 35 questions | 19 |
| 2025 Q2 | 34 | 9%3 of 34 questions | 19 |
| 2025 Q3 | 37 | 14%5 of 37 questions | 21 |
| 2025 Q4 | 36 | 6%2 of 36 questions | 20 |
| 2026 Q1 | 43 | 12%5 of 43 questions | 23 |
- 2024 Q35 questions · challenge rate 20% (1 of 5 questions) · 4 companies
- 2024 Q436 questions · challenge rate 6% (2 of 36 questions) · 20 companies
- 2025 Q135 questions · challenge rate 9% (3 of 35 questions) · 19 companies
- 2025 Q234 questions · challenge rate 9% (3 of 34 questions) · 19 companies
- 2025 Q337 questions · challenge rate 14% (5 of 37 questions) · 21 companies
- 2025 Q436 questions · challenge rate 6% (2 of 36 questions) · 20 companies
- 2026 Q143 questions · challenge rate 12% (5 of 43 questions) · 23 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Margin95
- Demand80
- Revenue Growth73
- Guidance Reliability54
- Trade Tariffs26
- Pricing23
- Cost Pressure14
- Competitive Dynamics13
- Capital Allocation9
- M&A9
Show all 21 topics
- Macroeconomic7
- Supply Chain7
- Inventory6
- Regulation Policy6
- Capex Investment5
- Innovation & R&D5
- Subscriber Growth2
- Product Launch2
- Cloud & AI2
- Geographic Expansion1
- Fx1