Q4 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Fourth Quarter Fiscal 26 Earnings Q and A Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Then 0 on your telephone keypad. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.

Please also note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Neisius, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Conagra Brands. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. This morning I am joined by John Brase, our CEO. Due to unforeseen circumstances, David is unable to join us this morning, but sends his regrets. So John and I will be taking your questions.

We may be making some forward looking statements in discussing non GAAP financial measures during this Q and A session. Please see our earnings release, prepared remarks, presentation materials and filings with the SEC the Investor Relations section of our website for descriptions of our risk factors, GAAP to non GAAP reconciliations, and information on our comparability items. I will now ask the operator to introduce the first question.

Thank you, sir. Today's first question comes from Andrew Lazar at Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks so much. Good morning and welcome, John.

Thank you, Andrew.

Sure. I guess, the my question would be, even with the dividend cut, leverage is still expected to rise in fiscal 27 given the business reinvestment needs both A and P and supply chain as well as I am assuming some volume deleverage impacts. Are the balance sheet constraints causing you to not invest as much as you would have truly liked to this coming year? As your early work suggested that what you proposed is appropriate, you know, with some flex built in as things rarely go sort of exactly as planned.

And I asked because early investor discussion certainly seems to suggest many feel that the reinvestment planned at this stage looks insufficient. Thanks so much.

Hey, thanks again for the question, Andrew. As I discussed in my opening remarks, I really believe a balanced approach to capital allocation is critical to the long term success of the company. The dividend cut, it is going to enable us over time to progress towards that 3.0 leverage target, which is really important to enable the strategic optionality to reshape the portfolio over time. But it is also unlocking some meaningful investments in the business in fiscal 2027. We talked about the $40 million increase in brand building which is a 14% increase.

Along with an incremental $125 million in capital. it is really going to help drive supply chain resilience and also lower cost by moving more production in house. I would say relative to brand building. I would call this a first move towards efficiency We are going to continue to increase our investments behind our strategic growth brands to drive trial and preference. So overall, I really do believe these are the immediate right investments.

But as you know, I am still in the early innings here. I can assure you we are going to continue to look for additional opportunities to invest where we can accelerate our path to profitable growth. Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Peter Galbo at Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, John and Matthew. Thanks for taking the question. John, I was maybe hoping to piggyback off of that question from Andrew. Specifically, your plan to stabilize and improve margins in the frozen business, which I think you are looking to do via some pretty significant pricing actions.

But you are also, I think, at the same time reinvesting. So I just think there is a bit of confusion around we want to grow margins in the frozen business, but also we want to reinvest at the same time. And so maybe you can just help us reconcile those 2 kind of priorities and pillars that you have in the plan because I think there is a bit of confusion around which 1 is ultimately going to win out. Thanks very much.

Yes. Thanks Peter. I think over the past couple of years as you are well aware, we have invested significantly to drive volume improvement and that is yielded solid results but it is also resulted in significant margin compression. I would tell you as inflation persisted in 2027, just have to remain agile as we look to offset continued cost pressure.

Our first line of defense will always be to use productivity to fight inflation. We are targeting another year productivity above 4%, but we are also going to have to lean on inflation justified pricing where necessary. Just to give us the fuel that we need to invest in our business and with customers to drive that long term growth. I would say this is all about balance ensuring we are priced competitively and also passing along inflation justified prices where we need to.

To give us the ability to drive our brands in the categories that we compete in. I want to make sure you hear something importantly, though, we are not backing off our commitment to frozen. We are making significant incremental investments in brand building like I just talked about. In fiscal 27. And we have probably our strongest innovation pipeline in place to delight the consumer.

And I think as you think about elasticity we have been very prudent in our elasticity assumptions Our guidance is assumed higher than historical elasticities with volumes down mid single digits really weighted towards frozen. So I think we have taken a prudent approach to how we plan the year. Okay. Thank you.

And our next question today comes from David Palmer at Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Thanks. I guess my 1 question would be, what you are going to be tracking the most? There is a lot of variables that go into any fiscal year. You have a guidance range.

If you are going to hit the high end of that guidance, what will be going right What are some of the key things that you are specifically going to be tracking and watching that you think are the key variables you might be price elasticities in certain key brands in frozen for example, but I would love to understand how you are thinking about the key variables going into this year. Thank you.

Yes, a couple of thoughts here. I think you hit the first 1, which is, I think, the price elasticity. And again, as I want to reinforce, I think we have taken a very prudent approach We are expecting higher than historical elasticities. That is probably the most important thing we will be watching on the top line.

I think the next thing is to really continue to drive those productivity savings. We benchmark productivity above 4%. And we have to ensure that those productivity savings are flowing to the bottom line. And so I think that would be another important marker.

But Matthew anything else you want to build? I think as you go down the P and L inflation of 5% is what we called out relative to productivity above 4%.

So that continues to be a pressure point with inflation exceeding productivity. However, I will note the pricing we are putting in place mid Q2, we are only getting a half a year impact of that. So as we get into FY 2028, we should have a favorable wrap on that piece as well. So I think those pieces get you to gross margin that is roughly flat on the year.

And then John talked about the step up in A and P that we are going to have, which really is get you to the margin guidance that we gave. Then just in terms of other swing factors, you know, Ardent Mills is always 1 that we keep an eye on. Right, wheat prices have been a bit more volatile of late, but it is always challenging to extrapolate that into a full year. So as we rolled everything up, as John mentioned, I think you know, we have given our best shot at how we think the year is going to play out while also building in some prudent assumption where we felt necessary.

Great. Thank you.

And our next question today comes from Robert Moskow with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. John, maybe you could give a little more color on how you went about trying to figure out what the new earnings base should be Did you consider something even lower like $1.20 even just to fully clear out any further downside and create a path. And if not, you know, is there kind of a margin here? Like, the margins are pretty low at 10%.

Is getting below that line just kind of dangerous for the business? Is that 1 of the, you know, the concerns you had?

Robert, thanks for the question. I think on as you think about EPS next year, again, I think this is a balancing act. And I will continue to use that. We wanted to give ourselves the room to invest meaningfully back into the business, which we have done.

With the step up in A and P and also in capital to really drive the supply chain resilience and also obviously the cost savings that come from repatriating some of our manufacturing back in house. I think we wanted to enable sufficient investment back into the business. You talk about margin and I think it is important that we kind of take the actions necessary to get ourselves to what I would call healthy structural margin that can build a foundation for profitable growth from I think we have threaded that balance right as we think about fiscal 27. Okay. Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Leah Jordan with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Thank you, John, for all the detail you have already provided today. You know, John, you talked about being in attractive categories with significant runway for growth, and we see you are leaning into investments in frozen and meat stacks today.

But then you also talked about the potential to simplify your portfolio. Just looking for more detail around that, how do you think about the cyclical versus structural headwinds of the industry today? What does normalized category growth look like for you and your business? When do we get there?

Which of your categories are better positioned long term? Thank you.

Leah, I am glad you brought up portfolio and I want to start and you heard my remarks. Really do believe today as we look at the portfolio, it is been too large, it is been too complex for too long and this is an area we definitely want to address. So, portfolio reshape is going to be a meaningful part of our strategy moving forward. Going to be very thoughtful and strategic about the approach that we take.

And I will tell you a couple of things here. 1, I really like the growth categories that we have outlined. I think our frozen portfolio, I think we are positioned. We have a strong competitive advantage. We have scale.

I believe frozen is on trend. We have got the right innovation. And so I think this is a segment that we want to continue to win in. And I believe permissible snacking is the same.

I love our portfolio there with meat snacks, our seeds business, our popcorn business, and even some of our permissible sweet snacks are performing incredibly well. Those will continue to be the growth drivers. I think while we look at driving a portfolio that is more efficient and effective moving forward. Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Nick Modi at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question.

So just a quick follow-up to that question, John. I just want to clarify that no portfolio shaping has been embedded into the forward guide. Just I just wanted to clear that up. And I guess the bigger question is just as you have been in the seat now for about 6 weeks, and you think about the big picture, obviously, do not want to get ahead of any formal strategic updates.

But just like when you look at the business, your observations, what are some of your highest conviction kind of observations in terms of the structural work that you believe needs to be done to get Conagra back on to a more sustainable growth track, whether it be cost structure, go to market, just talked about the portfolio shaping. Would love to get your thoughts on that and kind of how you think about the sequencing of those initiatives?

Yes, let me try to take those in order. I think first with the portfolio and thank you for the clarification. We are going to take a very thoughtful and strategic approach as we think about portfolio So, I think as you think about the long term portfolio, that will be a more of a mid to longer term impact. I think there is some opportunity we can do to clean up some of the portfolio in the near term.

And you really think about that as a lot of SKU complexity I think there is some really nice opportunities we have to tighten up the portfolio that we have while we do the strategic review that I would call more of a mid to long term plays that comes to the portfolio. I think as you think about the first kind of 45 days in the business I think I want to start with the strengths. There are some things that really excite me about this business. We have got some great brands and some very attractive categories I have been incredibly impressed with the innovation capabilities of Conagra.

And I think we are really ahead of the ball when it comes to kind of developing an advanced foundation in both technology and AI. And maybe most, we have got a deep, talented team and a great culture to build on. I think as I think through the opportunities and you will see those in actions we have taken in 2027. I do believe we are a bit out of balance today between this volume and margin. And I think finding that right balance between volume growth that is also structurally profitable is important.

And so that is why we have made the moves in pricing. I do not believe we are investing enough in our brands and our supply chain. Again, why you have seen a significant step up in investment there. And this notion of complexity I really believe complexity can be the enemy of execution.

And so, you know, we are going to really get after a simplification both in our organization and how we get work done Project Catalyst to be a nice enabler of that. But also as we think about the portfolio And what I am really excited about is we are planning as you saw in the notes and the remarks this morning Investor Day in early 27. that is where we will be able to kind of fully review the strategic plan moving forward. Great. Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Peter Grom at UBS. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you and welcome, John. So I guess I wanted to just more follow-up on kind of the outlook and just get some perspective on kind of the shape of the year from a margin and earnings trajectory. Sounds like 1Q is going to be under some pressure.

So I am just kind of curious how we should be thinking about the improvement from there. Just given the puts and takes around inflation and pricing?

Leah, thanks for the question. So for Q1 op margin, we pointed that in the high single digits. that is really impacted by a couple of things. Number 1, inflation. So inflation, as you know, up a bit as we got into our fourth quarter. that is going to take a little bit of time to flow through the P and L so that will start to impact Q1 in a bigger way.

We also have the tariff wrap that we called out of $40 million to the year. that is really lapping some of the mitigating items we had last Q1. So as you think about the $40 million that is really going to over index to the first quarter. And then the step-up in A&P, that is going to be really throughout the year a piece in Q1, and a bit more back half weighted. So I think that is kind of how Q1 is shaping up. And then, you know, we gave the full year guidance where the pricing will go in mid second quarter.

Think that is really where you are going to see the step up in gross margin just from that price mix turning a bit more positive especially in the frozen area where some of those pricing is concentrated?

Great. Thank you so much. I will pass it on.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Alexia Howard of Bernstein. Go ahead.

Great. Just to follow-up on that about the pricing in Q2. Are you able to give us an idea of roughly how much that will be across the portfolio? And more importantly, what sort of price elasticity assumption are you making in terms of the impact on volumes as you take that?

Yes, Alexia, in our guidance, so we guided to volumes down mid single digits for the year and organic net sales. I suppose if you use the midpoint of down 2% gets you to a price mix figure of roughly plus 3% or so. So I think that is probably a fair starting place as you just kind of evaluate those considerations. And then I am sorry. Could you repeat your second question?

No, it was really around the price elasticity. Just what gives you the confidence that the EPS numbers can come up come around so nicely in Q2? Is it mainly it is really just around the pricing?

Yes. Pricing is a big part of it. Think on the elasticity question, John mentioned, we have been very prudent in the assumptions that we put into the plan. I think for frozen, it is recognizing the current consumer environment.

We have been a bit more we have leaned in a bit higher on the elasticities maybe relative to historical standards. Whereas grocery and snacks, I would say is more in that 1-to-1 level. So I think from an elasticity standpoint we feel good about what we put in the plan. it is clearly going to be 1 of the items we are paying very close attention to as we go throughout the year. But that is just 1 piece of it.

I think productivity at above 4% really reflects continued effort across our organization to find cost savings. We mentioned some of the in sourcing initiatives that we have that give us better control of our supply chain while also removing costs So I think it is a number of factors that kind of come together to make the year. But from a phasing perspective, I think the pricing is not insignificant. So that is when you will see it is largely in Q2 and beyond.

Thank you. I will pass it on.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Max Gumford with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hey. Thanks for the question. So you are clearly prioritizing investments, your prepared remarks suggest a bit of a pivot from a focus on stabilizing volumes to stabilizing margins. You discussed how past margin compression was partially driven by an emphasis on driving volume at the expense of margin, most notably in frozen.

And we can clearly see the impact that is had on the business. Your operating margins have fallen from 16% just a few years ago. to your guidance now calling for 10% to 10.5% However, at the same time, organic volumes are now expected to decline 6 fiscal years in a row. And I understand you cannot have margins keep falling But outside of tobacco, I cannot think of many CPG businesses that have thrived as consistent volume declines, particularly given high fixed costs. So why is this pivot the right approach?

And how many more years of volume declines do you believe the business has the capacity to suffer through? Thanks very much.

Yes. Again, I think this is there is this continues to be about balance, right? And we are managing both the impact on the consumer with our volume assumptions. But again, we have to have the right structural margins to fuel the future investments.

I think we have been very, very thoughtful and deliberate about our pricing strategy. What I can tell you is we are going to continue to be agile in our pricing to make sure that we find the right balance between the right margins and being competitive on the shelf in a time where we know the consumer is being very value conscious. I think 1 of the things that gives me a great confidence is the portfolio and the power of the portfolio using frozen as an example. We have got a portfolio that really plays across the full value spectrum.

And I think that also gives us some insulation as you think about these pricing moves We have got places for the consumer to go within our portfolio no matter what the value challenges might be that they are facing.

And Max, I would just add. I think, you know, this environment that we have experienced the past several years is not necessarily normal in terms of the level of inflation that we have seen in our business. So, you know, the past several quarters, we have talked about the need to be agile and if inflation is going to be persistent and elevated again, then pricing may be on the table. So I think the plan that you are seeing today reflects that while also balancing other investment needs in the business including A and P, including CapEx, So I think I think to John's point, balance is probably a keyword there.

Okay. Thanks very much.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Christopher Carey at Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Hi, everyone. I wanted to go back to the complexity reduction part of your key priorities John. So you said the portfolio has been too large and too complex for too long, but also that like, SKU rationalization or portfolio cleanup will be more of a medium term endeavor. Nevertheless, can you give us a sense of where you see this complexity?

Is it in a SKUs that have become too plentiful? Is that in the structure of the portfolio at large? Does a dividend reduction allow you to consider larger transactions for bigger pieces of your business? Are there implications for your supply chain, which is already dealing with a bit capacity issues?

I just I realize it is still early days, I think investors would agree with the complexity observation and just a bit more detail on where you see that from product or, you know, portfolio segmentation or even your reporting segments? I would love any additional color if you have it. Thanks.

Leah, I want to start with the positive. We have got some real gems in this portfolio. So I think a big part of the simplification and prioritization is to allow us to disproportionately focus our resources and our investments on the brands that we believe can really drive profitable growth for the portfolio. So I really look at this as allowing more focus and attention on the brands and the segments where we have a right to win and we believe we can win.

And so I think to hit your question directly, really think we are the right approach is to attack this from both a bottoms up and a top down. Perspective. And again, I think about bottoms up, this really is taking a bit of a zero based approach to our SKUs. We need to ensure that all of the SKUs in our portfolio are playing a key role in delighting our consumers and our customers.

But they are also creating value for the enterprise. And again I think looking at making each view each item kind of earn their keep is going to be important. So we will be doing a very robust kind of bottoms up look at all of the items, all of our 5.5 thousand SKUs across the portfolio to ensure they are doing that. I think at the same time on a parallel path we are going to take a very prudent top down approach.

You heard me talk about we are going to be thoughtful and strategic here. But really starting with what do we want this portfolio to look like 5 years from now and how we are to get there. And I think that is going to take some time. that is probably the piece that I would call more of a mid to long term perspective. I think we will have a lot more to share on that strategic direction of the portfolio when we are at Investor Day in early 27. Okay.

Thank you.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Matthew Smith at Stifel. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. I wanted to come back to the part of your plan around increasing investment in the supply chain. You called out improving resilience and some investment to unlock savings. The guidance this year includes a step up in I think it is above 5% of sales at this point.

When we think about the level of spending this year, Is this a unique amount related to some capacity projects? Would you expect CapEx investment in the supply chain to kind of ratchet down in future years, or do you think it needs to remain elevated as you pursue this resiliency and productivity savings? Thank you.

Leah, Matthew, I can take that 1. So I think for CapEx, our long term guidance is between 4% to 5% of net sales. This year is obviously towards the upper end of that And in part, that is some of the bigger in sourcing projects that we have planned this year. We have talked about fried chicken in the past and more broadly just our belief in protein. So that is a big project.

I would say roughly $100 million of the year over year step up in CapEx is related to that. But as we go forward, I think resiliency is going to be 1 of the things that we continue prioritize. So that 4% to 5% of net sales range probably feels right going forward. But rest assured, our supply team is hard at work evaluating projects, ensuring we have a really strong foundation in our supply chain while also tackling some of these more modern manufacturing initiatives around technology, around AI, and really trying to simplify the way we work even within our manufacturing facilities.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Scott Marks at Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning all. Thanks for taking our questions. Just wanted to follow-up a bit on that supply chain resiliency. I guess how should we be thinking about maybe just benchmarks along the way as you go through this investment phase?

When should we be expecting certain milestones to be hit Or what milestones are you looking for that kind of signal to the investment community that you guys are making real progress and you feel comfortable with where you are and how things are going? Thanks.

Yes. There are things that we will continue to look at really is things like our service levels, right? And we want to continue to operate in that 98% to 98.5% kind of service levels. that is probably the cleanest indicator. Are we delivering the product at the right time for our customers? that is probably the strongest indicator.

And then I think it is trying to minimize any of those business interruptions that come from a supply challenge. And so our goal is zero. Right? We do not want any supply disruptions to kind of get in the way of delighting our consumers and our customers.

So I think those are some of the key markers that we will look at. But Matthew anything to build here?

I think the last piece I would just highlight is inventory and working capital management. Which for us has been a huge priority these past couple of years. In FY 2026, again, we took out a significant amount of in terms of days and dollars. Which as you think about our other priorities really helps from a cash flow perspective, from a leverage perspective.

So I think that is just 1 of those other areas of the supply chain that as we look to become more efficient and effective, our inventory balance and days of inventory will be another marker that we will keep an eye on.

Thank you. Our next question today comes from Steve Powers at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks. Hi, John, good morning. Maybe stepping back a little bit, I guess over these first 6 weeks, you have emphasized the importance of listening to external stakeholders, including retail customers and investors. Maybe reflecting on those conversations, was there particular feedback that stood out or surprised you most?

And maybe did the feedback you received externally challenge assumptions that the organization may have held previously that leads to the plan you outlined today. And I guess as an extension, what is been the buy in on the plan you have outlined today as you have begun to present it internally?

Thanks for the question because I think it is really important to reemphasize the first 45 days I have spent a lot more time listening and learning. Each of you have been incredibly helpful, our internal team, customers, consumers all of which have been really, really informative. I think a couple of things have really resonated. We have hit on these but I think important to reinforce the importance of simplification and prioritization.

I think that was a theme loud and clear that I have heard internally and externally the need to simplify and prioritize as we think about our portfolio but also even how we get work done. And so I am really excited about some of the portfolio work that we are going to continue to embark on but also project catalyst which is going to help us do work more efficiently and effectively. I would say it is to get our folks more time building the business than managing and tracking the business and Catalyst will be a major enabler there. So I think that is the first 1. I think the second 1 is really it is about my words matter, but our actions matter even more.

And I think this notion of restoring credibility by delivering on our commitments. And so I think what you will hear today is a plan. And then our job now is to go deliver that plan with no excuses. And I think you will see high accountability from our team in delivering what we say we are going to do to the external world, I think, is another critical 1. I think the last 1, and again, a theme that we have discussed throughout the session is the need to invest back in the business.

And again, why we have created a plan that does create some of that flexibility both in the balance sheet and in the P and L to invest back in ourselves. And I think that is really critical. So those are probably 3 of the top themes and we have acted on all 3 of those in this fiscal year. But I would tell you there is still a lot to learn.

I am going to continue to stay on the learning journey. I think you will see the full summation of what we have learned and how we are going to make our strategic pivots as we spend more time talking to you through the strategic plan. in early 2027. Great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. And our next question comes from Priya Gupta with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Great. As you talk to the rating agencies about some of the actions that you have taken around the dividend as well as your reinvestment for next year. What are their thoughts around your current ratings and outlooks? And how should we be thinking about the timeline to get back to that 3.0x target that you have and whether that is sort of been baked into the current recent outlooks from the agencies as well?

Thank you.

Leah, thanks for the question. We have really good relationships with our rating agencies. And as you can imagine, they are up to speed on our latest thinking. But obviously, dividend cut from a credit perspective is probably seen as a positive there.

I think it really does help accelerate our path to getting back to that 3 times number. Like, if you just look at the next 3 years or so, the level of the dividend cut frees up roughly $1 billion of incremental cash flow. A good amount of which will help us delever, continue to pay down debt. The other thing I would also highlight is just the focus on cash flow at this company is across the board.

We delivered free cash flow conversion of 119% this year that is the third year in a row of above 115%. Which really just reflects the focus company wide on driving cash at this company. And I can assure you that we are not going to stop. that is something that is gonna continue into next year. But overall, I think with the rating agencies, I think they understand the plan.

They understand the need for balance, and they understand our commitment to the investment grade credit rating. Great. Thank you so much.

Thank you. And our next question today comes from Brian Callan at Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Hi, thank you. Just a quick follow-up question to that, maybe on a shorter term basis. How are you planning to handle the October debt maturities? Are hybrids considered in the 4x leverage guide? Or any incremental debt repayment that is embedded in the, I guess, the interest expense guidance, just kind of what is baked into that interest expense and the 4.0x number? Thank you.

Leah, I think what you will find in the interest expense number is a continued focus on debt pay down. So with the dividend reduction this year, we will get 3-fourths of the benefit into fiscal 27. A good amount of that cash will go to continuing to delever And then part of the cash as we laid out in terms of the A and P investments and the CapEx investments. Will go to that as well. So in terms of the refinancing, we do have some notes coming due, you know, here in October.

I think right now, we are continuing to evaluate what our options are there, but I would say we have a number of options, whether that is commercial paper whether that is term loans, whether that is public notes, So the teams are hard at work figuring out a plan to refinance either a portion of those or all of those. I would say more to come there. Thank you.

Thank you. And that concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Matthew Neisius for any closing remarks.

All right. Thank you so much, and thank you all for joining us today. Please reach out to Investor Relations if you guys have any additional follow-up questions. Thank you.

That concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.