Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Duke Energy First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Mike Switzer, Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Mike, please go ahead.

Thank you, Jen, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Harry Sideris, President and CEO; along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information.

Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn the call over to Harry.

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to be with you to share our results on the continued progress we're making on our strategic priorities. Today, we announced first quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.93, which builds on our momentum from last year and marks a strong start to the year. These results are primarily driven by critical infrastructure investments to meet growing customer demand in our service territories.

We are on track to achieve our 2026 guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and are reaffirming our 5% to 7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030. And we are more confident than ever that we will deliver in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 when we expect to see accelerated growth from the economic development projects we have secured under ESAs. Our growth is strong. Economically attractive jurisdictions is underpinned by the industry's largest regulated capital plan, efficient recovery mechanisms and a long track record of constructive regulatory outcomes, and we continue to see strong fundamentals across our business.

In the first quarter, we achieved key strategic milestones in support of the growing states we serve. With every investment, we're ensuring the dollars deliver long-term value for our customers and communities. We will continue to execute this strategy with discipline and look forward to updating you throughout the year. As we invest in our system, I want to underscore that our priority has been and always will be providing customers reliable power at the lowest possible cost.

As a result of this unwavering focus, our rates are below the national average and have risen below the pace of inflation. We continue to find new ways to deliver affordable energy for our customers, including leveraging our scope and scale to achieve top-tier cost management. As shown on Slide 5, I'm pleased to announce 2 major accomplishments that will provide more than $5 billion of customer benefits, further demonstrating our sustained commitment to providing customer value. First, last week, we reached a multiyear agreement to monetize up to $3.1 billion of clean energy tax credits expected to be generated through 2028. The proceeds will flow back to customers to support keeping rates as low as possible.

We also received all regulatory approvals, including from FERC, North Carolina and South Carolina regulators for the proposed combination of our 2 Carolina utilities. Combining these utilities will enable us to meet the Carolina's growing energy needs more efficiently with estimated customer savings of $2.3 billion through 2040. With these approvals, we're working towards an effective date of January 1, 2027. Our customers remain our top priority, and we will continue to utilize every tool available to keep rates as low as possible. We had several other significant accomplishments in the first few months of 2026, which are outlined on Slide 6. Starting with the 2 strategic transactions announced last year.

We closed on the first tranche of Brookfield's minority investment in Duke Energy Florida in early March, receiving $2.8 billion in cash proceeds for a 9.2% interest in our Florida utility. Several weeks later, we completed the sale of our Piedmont Natural Gas Tennessee business to Spire for $2.5 billion. The more than $5 billion in proceeds strengthen our credit profile and help cost effectively fund our $103 billion capital plan as we invest for the benefit of our customers. Moving to economic development.

We continue to seize the growth in our attractive regions driven by innovation in AI technologies and advanced manufacturing. Since the fourth quarter call, we've signed an additional 2.7 gigawatts of ESAs with data center customers, bringing our total executed agreements to approximately 7.6 gigawatts, nearly 2/3 of which are already under construction. We recognize that we're in a once in a generation build cycle and have been collaborating with state and local officials, policymakers and regulators to attract these investments to our communities while protecting our existing customers. We've taken a leading role in developing contract structures that establish greater certainty for planning and ensure that new large customers pay their fair share of the overall system costs.

Contracts include minimum demand provisions, credit support, refundable capital advances and termination charges. Importantly, these incremental volumes will benefit all customers over the life of the contract as system costs are spread over a larger base. For decades, our teammates have had the privilege of living and working alongside the customers we serve, and that experience has made community engagement and core competency in our planning and delivery. When projects are built with communities and not around them, we are able to support growth in a way that both protects and benefits customers.

And finally, I want to touch on several regulatory updates, beginning with North Carolina. The rate cases for both Duke Energy Carolinas and Duke Energy Progress are proceeding on schedule. The next step will be intervenor testimony, which is due for DEC at the end of May. We look forward to continuing constructive engagement with stakeholders as we advocate for the critical investments needed to reliably serve our growing communities and provide value for our customers.

And in mid-March, we filed our initial electric rate stabilization adjustment in South Carolina under legislation that was signed into law last May. This efficient process allows for annual true-ups that reduce rate volatility for customers. The investments we're making in our systems support critical upgrades to improve reliability, harden the grid and support growth. Whether it's a blue sky day or responding to winter storms like we experienced earlier this year, we continue to provide value by keeping the lights on and restoring power safely and quickly.

Moving to Slide 7. We continue to advance our all-of-the-above strategy, adding 14 gigawatts of generation over the next 5 years. We're also maximizing existing generation by extending the lives of our nuclear fleet. In April, the NRC approved the subsequent license renewal for Robinson Nuclear Plant, marking our second nuclear plant to reach this important milestone. As the operator of the largest regulated fleet in the nation, nuclear is foundational to our strategy, and we intend to seek similar extensions for all our remaining reactors.

Our gas generation program, which is a critical component of our strategy is well underway with 5 gigawatts under construction and an additional 2.5 gigawatts in development. In March, the South Carolina Commission approved our application for a 1.4 gigawatt combined cycle plant in Anderson County. The plant is the first to be approved after the enactment of the Energy Security Act last May, and is our first new baseload generation asset in the Palmetto State in a decade. Construction is expected to begin in 2027. And last month, we implemented a CWIP rider in Indiana for our Cayuga combined cycle plant.

This recovery mechanism supports the state's focus on affordability by reducing overall costs to customers while maintaining balance sheet strength. We have agreements in place to secure the long lead time equipment and workforce needed for this dispatchable generation, which reduce risk and leverage our size and scale to complete these projects efficiently, maximizing the value for our customers. The first turbine secured under our framework agreement with GE Vernova are being built, with the turbines for the first Person County combined cycle project expected to be delivered in the second half of this year.

Our gas generation build will create thousands of construction jobs and we have a solid plan to ensure we have the skilled labor needed to meet our construction milestones on time and on budget. In the Carolinas, we have signed EPC contracts for the first 3 new gas generation facilities, a programmatic approach that gives our EPC provider Zachry line of sight to an order book of projects. We have deliberately laid out the construction timelines for Person County and Marshall plants to create a road map for Zachry to stage the regional workforce. This will support developing and retaining a local craft pool for years into the future.

We're building on the success we've had supporting talent pipelines to address needed skills in our service territories, like we've done with lineworker training programs, and we're sharing these best practices with our EPC partners. To bring all this together, our project management and construction team has a robust construction monitoring process in place. We are working closely with our equipment suppliers and EPC providers, including conducting quality assurance checks of equipment and manufacturing and leveraging AI technologies to track milestones. This includes monitoring construction at a granular level down to the cubic yard of dirt excavated and concrete being poured.

Overall, our scope and scale as well as our extensive experience and infrastructure development uniquely position us to lead this record generation build. And we've been actively preparing for this next build cycle for more than 3 years given us full confidence in our ability to execute the work ahead. With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. As shown on Slide 8, we delivered strong first quarter results with reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.97 and $1.93, respectively. This compares to reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.76 last year. Electric Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.16, driven by infrastructure investments to reliably serve customers in our growing jurisdictions as well as favorable weather.

Partially offsetting this was higher O&M and depreciation expense on a growing asset base. The colder temperatures we experienced in the quarter drove higher usage, but this was offset by higher O&M expenses incurred responding to winter storms. We budget for storms and have solid recovery mechanisms in place. So the impact in the first quarter is largely timing, and we continue to target flat O&M for the full year.

Gas Utilities and Infrastructure was up $0.01 compared to last year, with contributions from riders and customer growth, partially offset by higher depreciation expense. The Other segment was essentially flat to the prior year. Our results for the quarter continued to build on the momentum from the past year, reflecting the strength of our utilities and consistent execution of our strategy, positioning us well to achieve our full year EPS targets. Turning to Slide 9. Our economic development success continues as we progress additional large load projects through the pipeline and signed contracts.

We have now secured approximately 7.6 gigawatts of electric service agreements with data center customers, including an incremental 2.7 gigawatts since the fourth quarter call. As Harry touched on, these contracts include provisions that protect existing customers and deliver value to those customers over time by spreading fixed costs over a larger base. As we continue to convert economic development prospects into firm projects, we are locking in contracted ramp schedules that provide us with increasing confidence in our long-term load growth projections. On Slide 10, I want to highlight the work underway to sign additional contracts and bring new large loads onto the system.

We continue to see robust interest from large load customers with our late-stage high confidence pipeline now at 15.4 gigawatts, inclusive of the ESAs we've signed. Our teams are working diligently to advance projects through the pipeline, and we expect to convert additional prospects to ESAs over the next 12 months. Construction is underway on the first 5 gigawatts of new data centers, and we are putting the necessary infrastructure in place to support speed to power, preparing the grid to deliver energy as soon as they are ready and executing our generation build to grow together over time. Consistent with our load forecast, we expect these customers to begin taking energy as early as the second half of 2027 and into 2028 and ramp into their full contracted load through the early 2030s.

We expect the 2.7 gigawatts signed in the first quarter as well as any incremental projects signed to begin taking energy late in the 5-year planning window and ramp into the early to mid-2030s, strengthening the durability of our long-term growth potential well into the next decade. Turning to the balance sheet on Slide 11. We remain well positioned to meet our financial commitments for the year. In March, we received over $5 billion of proceeds from the sale of Piedmont's Tennessee and the first tranche of our -- of the Duke Energy Florida minority investment. Closing these transactions provides financial flexibility to execute our strategy and demonstrates our commitment to pursuing the lowest cost of capital to support our investment plans.

Also in March, we issued $1.5 billion of convertible senior notes at a 3% coupon, providing interest savings as we pay down higher cost debt. We took advantage of the strong market conditions and priced $300 million of equity under our ATM program, which will settle in December 2027, consistent with the timing of our future equity needs. This balanced funding approach, along with improving cash flows from efficient recovery mechanisms keeps us on track to deliver 14.5% FFO to debt in 2026 and 15% over the long term, providing meaningful cushion to our downgrade thresholds. I also want to take a moment to acknowledge a major achievement we celebrated as a company this year, our 100th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend.

This milestone marks a long-dated commitment to the dividend that's directly tied to the company's financial strength, regulatory execution and disciplined long-term investments. We have a diverse investor base, including many who live and work in the jurisdictions we serve, and we are proud to deliver this consistent cash flow they can count on. Let me close with Slide 12. We are off to a strong start in 2026, and I'm proud of our team's unwavering commitment to deliver value for our customers each and every day. We are on track to achieve our 2026 EPS guidance range of $6.55 to $6.80 and 5% to 7% EPS growth through 2030 with confidence to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028. Economic development success across our states generates an extensive runway of customer-focused capital investments that position us to deliver on our growth targets, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: So just as it pertains to the Carolinas cases here, right? I mean, obviously, they're proceeding, as you say, on schedule. How do you think about any potential to settle them up here partially or otherwise here? Again, obviously, we're ticking through the milestones here. But just how would you set expectations against the wider backdrop here? A lot of noise in the system here, would love to hear how you set expectations.

Yes, Julien. So we always pride ourselves in working closely with our regulators and stakeholders to make sure everybody understands the benefits of the case, the value that we're providing to our customers. Like I mentioned, the next big milestone is the intervenor testimony later this month. I think once we get that out, we will have more extensive discussions on settlement opportunities.

We always are open to that, but we also feel like we have a strong case if we have to litigate it. We understand that affordability is front and center for everyone, it's front and center for us, and we're taking every action that we can. The announcement that we made yesterday with over $5 billion of savings over time for our customers is just one of the tools. And we have other tools in our tool bag to help as we have those stakeholder discussions.

So we feel very confident that we will be able to continue our regulatory outcomes -- strength in regulatory outcomes that we've had for the last several years.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith: Awesome. Excellent. And then just coming back to the load growth, I mean, kudos again on that here in the quarter. Can you give us a little bit of an update in South Carolina, where do we stand on the generic large load tariff docket? How do you think about that being a catalyst in its own right? And any differences in the framework that you're expecting between the 2 different Carolinas here?

Yes. We're looking at several dockets and several tariff opportunities in all our states, but they're all grounded on the contracts that we have mentioned before, making sure that the data centers pay their fair share through minimum take provisions, deposits, refundable deposits, clawback provisions if they terminate. And also the benefits that they provide over time is a tremendous value to our customers. So making sure that people understand that.

This is billions of dollars over the life of these contracts that are going to go to help offset the fixed system costs that we have with the larger loads. So we're in discussions in South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and other states to make sure that these are memorialized and that we have the right provisions and tariffs in place to be able to do that. We feel our contracts do that now and then tariffs will just add to that.

Your next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

Maybe just on the tax credit monetization that you announced this morning or mentioned in your prepared, any details you can provide in terms of counterparty or terms there? And just are there any other opportunities like that, that you could utilize to continue to provide customer benefits as the focus on affordability remains top of mind?

Carly, this is Brian. I'll take that one. As we monetize tax credits over the past couple of years, we've tested the market and we found a couple of partners that we wanted to go longer with. And that's what was the catalyst to negotiate a multiyear contract with this counterparty.

We can't disclose the counterparty, but they have a healthy tax appetite, obviously, because they're acquiring these credits and going to be applying them on their tax return. And we feel like that, that's the best approach to partnering with companies as this IRA monetization market has continued to mature because going through an auction each year does take a lot of churn and effort in the system and you don't necessarily get the best prices. Like we tested the prices. We got great value for our customers with this contract.

And after we've proven out that the discounts on the tax credits are as good or better than any market we've seen. So I think you could expect us to continue doing this. And just to be clear, this is a forward contract. So we're going to earn the tax credits and sell them in those given years, but we predetermined the set value for our customers, which is a great, great opportunity.

Great. Super helpful. And then maybe just on nuclear. I guess across the industry, there's been some discussion on perhaps a consortium of utilities, hyperscalers, government entities kind of coming together to try to address some of the cost overrun issues and move forward on new build AP1000s in particular.

I guess, is that sort of a structure something that you might consider participating in? And maybe just refresh us on kind of what specifically you're looking for to feel confident to move forward on new nuclear development.

Yes, Carly, obviously, nuclear is very important to us. We have 11 reactors that provide safe, reliable, dispatchable clean energy to our customers. And like Brian just mentioned, also helps us with customer value by providing almost $600 million of tax credits a year to our customers. So obviously, nuclear is important to Duke Energy.

I think nuclear is important for the future of the country and the utility industry in general. We're going to need nuclear in the future to be able to deliver reliable power and clean power to handle the growth that our country is experiencing. But like we've said before, our main focus right now is to make sure that we get the most out of our current reactors. So we have about 300 megawatts of upgrades that we're executing and also getting the life extended.

So we just announced Robinson's life extension, we'll be extending the lives of our other reactors as well. And we're working with the government, with hyperscalers and others to make sure that the things that we need to solve to be able to go forward with the new nuclear build are being managed. So those risks like we've talked about before, first-of-a-kind risks on the technology, what are we going to do with supply chain and workforce and making sure that that's available out there. And last but definitely not least is how we manage the financial risks that protects our customers from overruns as well as protects our investors from that.

So we continue to have those discussions. We continue to maintain optionality in our IRPs and our planning to be able to do that if those answers come. But we will not make any moves till we get those 3 questions answered.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Just wanted to maybe go into the backlog a little bit more for the ESAs. Just wondering if you could, I guess, share a bit more of the view of the larger pipeline, as you said, the 15 and change, and how you think the cadence of this could come together in the future as far as the potential to expand the plan and what that could mean over time?

Yes, Jeremy, like we talked before, we're taking a very disciplined approach to this, really focused on those counterparties that are -- that can deliver those projects, and we're very conservative in what we're putting into that. So our pipeline is much bigger than that. But what we focus on is that late-developed stage, and we feel confident that the discussions that we're having are going to land a lot of these that are in our late development pipeline in the next 12 months. So we'll continue to update you on that.

But we continue to have prospects further deeper in the pipeline that we're moving up into this more advanced stage as well.

Jeremy, if I could just add, I can't help myself. I'm so proud of our focus on speed to power. We've really retooled how we approach these large load customers, pulling together our transmission and grid teams as well as our economic development teams, ensuring that we're looking at every solution to get these customers signed. And I think it's evident.

We signed 2.7 gigawatts this quarter, which was more than half we signed last year is really a testament to that speed to power focus, and you should expect more of that in the future.

Got it. That's helpful there. And just wanted to turn towards the current rate case. Are there any direct offsets here from the savings that you announced with the merger of the Carolinas and as well as the tax credits? Just wondering if you think about the potential to -- levers, I guess, to reframe the ask as a result of what was accomplished here just looking at forward prospects.

Yes, Jeremy, we have a lot of levers, tax credits being one of them. The one utility, that's going to go into effect at the beginning of next year. So that will be more over time, but it does definitely provide a lot of value to the customers over that time, $2.3 billion. So our focus with the levers that we have now is how we can offer some of those up to mitigate some of the increase.

So think about tax credits, then we have some other options as well. Again, we'll be talking to our stakeholders and our regulators after the intervenor testimony is filed at the end of this month.

Got it. One quick one, if I could, just as it relates to the legislative session, if there's anything that you're watching there? I think there might be some bills talking on tax incentive for data centers, fuel cost sharing mechanisms. And just wondering if -- any thoughts on the legislative session you could share?

Yes. We share the goals that our legislators and our regulators and our stakeholders have in the states. They want to make sure that customers are protected from the large load that's coming to our territory to make sure they pay their fair share. They want to make sure that the reliability is maintained.

And they also want to make sure that we continue to have economic development in the states grow. Those are all things that we're in tune with, and we're working with them. I think a lot of the things that are being discussed are already in our contracts. It's just codifying some of that.

So we'll continue to work with them, but we all have the same goal in mind to make sure that our customers are protected and our states can continue to grow and we can continue to have reliability.

Your next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

I was just wondering -- just one question from me. Have you seen any -- just in terms of the data center activity in the broader pipeline, have you seen any acceleration in that activity in terms of top of the funnel interest in your service territory? Wondering if there are any areas, any regions that are showing indications that they could be bigger hubs and develop that way over time?

Yes, Dave, we're seeing an acceleration in interest in our territories. Being a vertically integrated utility has a lot of advantages to these hyperscalers. We plan our transmission, our generation. It's a one-stop shop.

We also have a very vast experience and skill around community engagement that can help these folks as they navigate zoning and other issues that crop up. So we're getting a lot more interest in our service territories. We're seeing in North Carolina around the Charlotte area kind of becoming another hub. We have a lot of interest in Florida as well as the southern part of Indiana.

I know a lot of activity has happened in Northern Indiana originally, but we're getting a lot of incomings for the Southern Indiana region now as well. So we'll continue to work on those. Like Brian mentioned, we have a team in place that their goal 7 days a week, 24 hours a day is how do we get these things signed quicker, how do we service them quicker, maintaining the reliability and the value for all our customers.

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland with Truist Securities.

Circling back to the customer savings outlined on Slide 5. The tax credit agreement, can you speak a little bit to the timing of flowback to rate payers there? I think you've discussed this a little bit in the past. Just trying to get a sense of if the latest monetization agreement is consistent with that or any changes in thinking there?

Thanks, Richard, and congrats on the new role. I know you started covering Truist recently. So it's good to hear your voice. The tax credit agreement, I would think about it as we're locking in the value per customer.

So we're not going to be negotiating discounts year in and year out. The flowback is different for North Carolina versus South Carolina for DEP and DEC currently. But you think of -- we've been signaling to a 4-year amortization generally, and that's what is in North Carolina. And as Harry said, as we work through the rate cases, this might be a tool to accelerate to keep the rates even lower during this time.

But it's not additional tax credits, it's ones we expected to earn through our nuclear, solar and battery investments. It's monetizing them at these predetermined discounts and locking in that value for customers.

No, I appreciate that commentary as well. I guess on the ESA update too, just if I caught that in the script, I think it was 2/3 are under construction. Curious what you see as the timing for those remaining projects to begin construction. And I guess anything you're focused on locally around moratoriums, what have you in terms of the confidence of those projects advancing until they start turning dirt?

Yes. So we're very confident in all our projects that are in the ESA bucket. Our ESAs require having zoning nailed down, having permits in place. So we feel confident, and that's why a lot of them have been able to start construction as soon after we sign those ESAs.

We anticipate the same thing with all the new ones that are coming into us. They'll start construction very rapidly. And in fact, we're looking at ways of how we can accelerate some of the bridge power to them -- to get them online and have them start taking their service a little bit earlier as well.

Your next question comes from the line of Steve D'Ambrisi from RBC Capital Markets.

Stephen D’Ambrisi: I just had a quick one to follow up on kind of the load commentary in the 2.7 gigawatts. I was just looking at the North Carolina IRP that you guys had filed in October. And I think in that IRP, you had included the moderate development forecast, which included something like 6 gigawatts of advanced stage, but it was risked at like a 25% or 30% rate. And so I mean, it seems like signing this 2.7 gigawatts, even if it's in the tail end, looks like it would be upside to what was kind of laid out in the moderate development plan. So can you just talk about what that means and like what the avenue is to update load forecasts in North Carolina or elsewhere just as you continue to sign these large loads?

Yes. It's a very dynamic environment that we're dealing with. That's why we put a high case in that IRP. So this 2.7 gigawatts that we just recently signed, that moves that load up to that level.

So it's been contemplated in our plans there. It will be discussed in our rebuttal as well. So that just solidifies that other line in there. This is very dynamic.

We're also talking to our stakeholders on how we can update that a little bit more frequently than what we have in the past because it's such a dynamic environment. But we're doing everything that we can to make sure that we're planning the generation, staying ahead of it so that we can sign these ESAs as fast as possible and not have any delays.

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Harry Sideris for closing remarks.

Thank you again, everybody, for joining us. And before I close, I just wanted to reemphasize how proud I am of the results that this team has delivered in the first quarter, and we're going to continue to build on that momentum as we move through the rest of the year. But I want you to know that we're executing our strategy effectively. We're reaching our new milestones in our generation build, and we're converting those economic development opportunities into real projects, and we're going to continue doing that in the future.

So I'm very confident in our ability to earn in the top half of the range -- EPS growth range in 2028 as these loads materialize. And our plan is very durable well into the future. So again, thank you for joining us today, and thank you again for your investment in Duke Energy.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.