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Sentiment · FY2025 Q4
| Analyst | Firm | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Smith | Stifel | 10 | 0% |
| Bonnie Herzog | Goldman Sachs | 10 | 20% |
| Gaurav Jain | Barclays | 9 | 22% |
| Eric Serotta | Morgan Stanley | 7 | 0% |
| Faham Baig | UBS | 6 | 0% |
| Mirza Baig | UBS | 5 | 0% |
| Pallav Mittal | Barclays | 2 | 50% |
| Damian McNeil | Deutsche Bank | 2 | 0% |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | 2 | 11 | 27% |
| UBS | 2 | 11 | 0% |
| Goldman Sachs | 1 | 10 | 20% |
| Stifel | 1 |
| 10 |
| 0% |
| Morgan Stanley | 1 | 7 | 0% |
| Deutsche Bank | 1 | 2 | 0% |
Altria closed FY2025 with adjusted EPS of $5.41 at the top of its guidance range, as Marlboro retail share reached 42.8% and NJOY expanded to 145,000 stores while the FDA synthetic nicotine rule began compressing the illicit vapor market. Management introduced FY2026 guidance of $5.52-5.67 in adjusted EPS representing 2-5% growth, reaffirming the 2028 smoke-free revenue target while flagging NJOY's PMTA filing timeline and the California flavor ban as key near-term variables.
Competitive Dynamics | Product Launch | Regulation Policy | Pricing | Demand | Guidance Reliability | Macroeconomic | Geographic Expansion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2025Q1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2025Q2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025Q4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitive Dynamics | 4 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| Product Launch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Regulation Policy | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Pricing | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Demand | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Guidance Reliability | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Macroeconomic | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Geographic Expansion | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
MO Altria | 7 | +14.5% | |
| PM Philip Morris International | 7 | +9.1% |