Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Welcome to Xylem's First Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Travers, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Xylem's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Chief Executive Officer, Matthew Pine, and Chief Financial Officer, Bill Grogan. Bill will provide the perspective on Xylem's first quarter results and discuss the second quarter and full year 2026 outlook.

Following our prepared remarks, we will address questions related to the information covered on the call. I'll ask that you please keep to 1 question and a follow-up and then return to the queue. As a reminder, this call and our webcast are accompanied by a slide presentation available in the Investors section of the website. A replay of today's call will be available until midnight, May 12, and will be available for playback via the Investors section of our website under the heading Investor Events.

Please turn to Slide 2. We will make some forward-looking statements on today's call, including references to future events or developments that we anticipate will or may occur in the future. These statements are subject to future risks and uncertainties and such as those factors described in Xylem's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and in subsequent reports filed with the SEC. Please note that the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements publicly to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, and actual events or results could differ materially from those anticipated.

Please turn to Slide 3. We have provided you with a summary of our key performance metrics, including both GAAP and non-GAAP metrics. For the purposes of today's call, all references will be on an organic and/or adjusted basis, unless otherwise indicated, and non-GAAP financials have been reconciled for you and are included in the Appendix section of the presentation. Now please turn to Slide 4, and I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Matthew Pine.

Thank you, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Coming off a strong 2025 with sustained momentum, 2026 is proving resilient with a solid first quarter financial performance despite a dynamic external environment. Demand for our mission-critical solutions were consistent with expectations.

Our teams are leveraging our reduced complexity to execute with discipline, staying close to customers as evidenced by our strong book-to-bill in the quarter and focusing on long-term value creation. We had a strong start to the year deploying capital across the business in line with our priorities. In January, we increased our dividend by about 8%. In February, we announced a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization, executing on $581 million in quarter 1. This reflects our confidence in the business and our commitment to a balanced approach to capital allocation.

In March, we signed an agreement to acquire a German firm that designs and manufactures highly-engineered water quality instruments. The company is a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring. And the acquisition expands our role as a systems intelligence partner supporting resilient long-cycle demand and enabling higher-value digital and service solutions. I also want to highlight how our transformation is helping advance our priorities.

Our self-improvement initiatives are foundational, simplifying our structure and processes to build stronger capabilities. They've strengthened our resilience, enhancing our ability to mitigate macro uncertainty. That operational foundation is centered around making it easier to do business with us in building our growth engine. To that end, WSS booked our largest order ever this month, an outsourced water contract for $850 million delivered over 20 years.

This isn't just a milestone. It reinforces that our strategy is delivering. And we continue to make progress with our disciplined approach to M&A with a solid pipeline of opportunities in place. We're progressing towards our $1 billion annual target, optimizing our portfolio and leveraging our balance sheet.

Taken together, this progress shows we are well underway in our multiyear operating model transformation, strengthening our growth engine through disciplined execution and operational rigor. I'll pass it over to Bill to take us through the details of Q1 and updated guidance.

Thanks, Matthew. Please turn to Slide 5. We are pleased with the strong start to the year. The team stayed focused despite the volatility and delivered healthy results to build off of as we progress through the year. Demand remains solid with our ending backlog up sequentially to $4.7 billion, and our book-to-bill for the quarter was above 1. Orders were flat versus last year, driven by project timing in WSS, offsetting strength in the other segments.

Revenue was also flat in the quarter versus prior year, in line with expectations as we saw impacts from our 80/20 efforts in China headwinds moderating our short-term revenue outlook. This team's operational discipline delivered quarterly EBITDA margin of 20.6%, up 20 basis points versus the prior year. The improvement was driven by productivity and price more than offsetting inflation, significant mix and lower volume. We also achieved quarterly EPS of $1.12, a 9% increase over the prior year.

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA increased to 0.6x and driven by our opportunistic share repurchases in the quarter. Free cash flow was positive in the first quarter, driven by timing of accruals and lower payments, offset in part by restructuring costs and higher CapEx. And the teams continue to make progress with our working capital efficiency metrics. Let's turn to Slide 6. In Measurement & Control Solutions, book-to-bill was below 1, but backlog remained flat sequentially at roughly $1.4 billion.

Orders were up a robust 15%, driven by smart metering demand in water as we made progress on the projects that shifted out of Q4. We expect double-digit orders growth for water throughout the balance of the year. Revenue was up 1%, driven by energy metering demand, offset in part by softness in water meters. EBITDA margin was 20.9% and was 10 basis points lower than prior year, driven by unfavorable mix and inflation, offset partly by productivity and price. We also wanted to provide an update to our international metering divestiture.

Due to regulatory approval timing, we now expect the deal to close at the end of Q2, which is reflected in our updated guidance. In Water Infrastructure, orders were up 2% in the quarter, driven by strong demand in transport supported by growth in the U.S. and India. Revenue was down 1%, driven by softness in treatment related to walkaway actions, partly offset by strength in transport. Growth in the U.S. was offset by declines in China and Western Europe.

EBITDA margin for water infrastructure was up 120 basis points with productivity more than offsetting inflation and mix. In Applied Water, orders were also up 2% and book-to-bill was well above 1, lifted by large projects and data center wins. Data center orders in Q1 exceeded the full year amount for all of 2025. Revenues were flat versus the prior year, primarily driven by strength in U.S. commercial buildings offsetting softness in industrial and residential end markets. EBITDA margin was below expectations, but increased 10 basis points year-over-year, driven by productivity and price, mostly offset by inflation, volume and mix.

We are confident in the segment's strong margin expansion opportunities throughout the remainder of the year. Finally, Water Solutions and Services saw an orders decline driven by capital project timing. Subsequently, WSS booked its largest order ever in April, an $850 million outsourced water contract with a 20-year service contract. Revenue declined 2% year-over-year driven by capital project timing and weather impacts on service branch operations, partly offset by strength in dewatering.

Segment EBITDA margin was 22.1%, up 40 basis points versus the prior year, driven by price, productivity and mix, offset by inflation, volume and investments. Now let's turn to Slide 7 for our updated full year and second quarter guidance. The organic outlook is largely unchanged versus what we provided at the start of the year. with minor changes to our reported figures due to the delayed divestiture closing in MCS. Full year reported revenue is now expected to be $9.2 billion to $9.3 billion, up from the prior guide of $9.1 billion to $9.2 billion, which delivers revenue growth of 2% to 3%.

And while organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% remains unchanged versus prior guidance. EBITDA margin is expected to remain at 22.9% to 23.3%. This represents 70 basis points to 110 basis points of expansion versus the prior year, driven by productivity and price more than offsetting inflation as well as investments in the business. And benefits from our simplification efforts will help mitigate mix pressure from MCS.

Also, there is no material impact to our projected results from recently announced changes in tariffs. Despite the benefit from share repurchases, we've chosen to keep our EPS range unchanged at $5.35 to $5.60, reflecting a prudent approach to guidance in an uncertain macro environment and not a change to our outlook for the year. Cash flow generation started strong this year. We remain committed to low double-digit free cash flow margin in our long-term financial framework and we'll make additional progress in 2026. Now drilling down on the second quarter.

We anticipate revenue growth will be in the 2% to 3% range on a reported basis and roughly 1% organically. We expect second quarter EBITDA margin to be approximately 22% to 22.5%, which is up 20 to 70 basis points, driven by price realization, productivity gains and higher volumes. Second quarter MCS EBITDA margin will be down year-over-year, driven again by the impacts from energy. However, we expect it to improve sequentially from the first quarter and return to margin expansion in the second half.

These results will yield second quarter EPS of $1.31 to $1.36. We started the year with strong demand in a position of strength. Our balanced outlook reflects our strong commercial position, the durability of our portfolio and benefits from our simplification efforts. While we also continue to monitor broader market conditions and volatility, including the Middle East conflict, changes in tariffs and other inflationary pressures along with fluctuations in currency and interest rates. Overall, our expectations for the year remain positive, and we build on our strong momentum.

With that, please turn to Slide 8, and I'll turn the call back over to Matthew for closing comments.

Thanks, Bill. I want to return to the core purpose of our company to empower our customers and communities to build a more water-secure world. We've been very intentional about putting customers and communities at the center of our strategy. In 1 place, you can clearly see that progress is in sustainability.

Xylem's 2025 sustainability report was posted to our website on April 24. The report reflects the fundamental truth about our business. Long-term success is driven by disciplined execution, applied in service of a clear purpose that delivers meaningful outcomes for the communities we serve. . Looking back at 2025, that alignment delivered concrete measurable results in partnership with our colleagues customers and communities, we've achieved our sustainability goals we set in 2019 around water reuse, pollution prevention and stewardship. Looking ahead, we are building on that progress through our 2030 sustainability agenda, which is focused on longer-term systematic impact around 3 signature priorities: decarbonizing the water sector; strengthening water stewardship; and expanding access to water, sanitation and hygiene.

Sustaining this progress means continuing to evolve Xylem to we're positioned for what comes next especially for our customers as we leverage the simplicity we've created to the first phase of our transformation. That's why I'm pleased to share 2 updates to the executive leadership team. To further strengthen how we serve our customers across our global footprint, Snehal Desai, assuming a more focused role as Chief Growth and Commercial Officer. In this role, Snehal will lead our enterprise growth strategy and execution, doubling down on commercial excellence, customer focus and consistent delivery of scale.

At the same time, to accelerate innovation that directly translates into customer value, Sivan Zamir has been appointed to a newly created role as Chief Innovation and Product Officer. Sivan will build the capabilities required to bring differentiated solutions to market faster. This leadership update, along with our purpose forward culture, operational rigor and disciplined capital deployment accelerates Xylem's growth engine and positions us to deliver exceptional long-term value creation. And now let's open up the call for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

Can we get -- I'd love to hear more about this outsourced contract and congratulations. This is exactly the way you've positioned WSS to build out services. So anything about the customer? Anything on the economics? And is there a pipeline for more of these types of outsourced contracts? .

Yes. So for sure, there's more pipeline, and I pushed the team every day on that topic, Deane. Thanks for the question. I can't name the actual customer, but it is an existing customer of ours, and it's in the specialty chemical vertical.

We're providing processed water for cooling and also boiler feed water in their manufacturing process. So it's a great example of our technical know-how on the front end of a capital build along with our ability to provide a long-term service tail, which is really great for the next 20 years for our business. So maybe I'll have Bill walk you a little bit through some of the numbers.

Yes, Deane. So out of the $850 million, it's about 75% service and 25% capital. right? We'll realize about 10% of the contract value this year with the balance of the capital build next year and look to flow water in 2028 to start the service tail.

Really good to hear. And then just a second question. Matthew, I'd like how you started off with using the word resilient. Can you give us a sense of the municipal demand outlook at this stage of the year? And anything on the macro. And there's nervousness about project activity away from municipal, but just the approval process, on projects? Any color there would be helpful.

Okay. Yes, I would say that the overall utility demand remains resilient, like I said in some of the opening remarks, I was with about 15 utility CEOs across all parts of the U.S., specifically a few weeks back, and we spent a lot of time together the full day. And there was really -- and these are large municipalities across the U.S. and there was really no indication of any meaningful funding pullbacks or project delays outside of some of the normal things you would expect to see. For our business in Q1, U.S. utility orders, and this is based on the MCS and the WI segments, which are really a proxy for utility orders, we were up double digits in the U.S.

Our revenue was up mid-teens. So I would tell you right there that shows the resilience of the utility demand in the U.S. If you kind of pull the lens back and look at those 2 segments I talked about, overall, WI was up 2% in orders. supported by transport in the U.S. and India. And you've heard us talk a lot about China and we've signaled that in the past, and we were down 30% year-over-year in China.

So that's really the -- a big part of the drag. And then in Europe, specifically Western Europe, their short-term noise with our 80/20 initiatives. In MCS, you heard Bill talk in the opening comments. Orders were up 15% for MCS driven by large water orders, primarily in the Southeast of the U.S. and solid energy activity.

So all in all, Deane, there remains significant demand for our solutions. We're dealing with an aging infrastructure in the developed parts of the world. Western Europe and the U.S., it has to be addressed. If you look at what -- the U.S.

Army Corps of Engineers says about our infrastructure, they give us a C- to a D+ depending on which part of the infrastructure you're looking at in water, drinking water, wastewater, storm water. So we talk about $1.5 trillion needed over the next decade, just in the U.S. to maintain those poor ratings. So from my perspective and from the customer's perspective, things are still pretty robust.

And the next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

Can you give us a little more color on what you're seeing in terms of price versus inflation across the company? And I know you mentioned Applied Water, Q1 margin was generally fine across the portfolio. But for instance, you thought water back to 20%, and you did acknowledge you record a bit lower than you expected. So maybe just talk about conviction staying ahead of inflation and getting that uptick in margin trajectory that you expect for the rest of the year? .

Yes. I think for the broader portfolio, we're still price cost positive from a price of material cost, including the tariff piece. Again, I think the teams have been extremely proactive and have built up a solid skill set to understand the levers, timing and process to capture the incremental value to offset inbound inflation. Obviously, we've seen it here with the escalation with Iran and fuel prices increasing, where we've seen immediate fuel surcharges go into place to offset that.

So I think we're confident that we can stay ahead of inflation through price is our first lever and the teams continue to work on sourcing actions as a secondary lever. For Applied Water specifically, as we said in the call, I think the performance was below our expectations. But I think primarily, that was more of mix within the sales on the gross margin line. I think we're confident that they're going to get back above 20% as we look at the balance year relative to the cost actions they've taken, mix normalizing some of these data center projects that Matthew highlighted in the opening comments will start to play at a little bit higher margin and they'll sequentially improve through the balance of the year.

Bill, that's helpful. And then maybe the same kind of question on organic growth for the year. You obviously mean an uptick in growth in the second half. to meet your forecast. It seems like you made progress on booking those 5 to 10 projects that you've been most focused on in MCS.

Maybe give us a little more color there. And then it's nice to hear about the big capital project in WSS, but do you need a capital recovery at all in WSS to make your original, I think it was mid-single-digit organic growth for that segment? .

Yes. No, I think, again, we've seen the things that we needed to see happen here in the first quarter relative to strong MCS orders in some of those projects. that were delayed start. Now we got the orders that they're going to play out through the balance of the year. We still need to have a couple more orders hit for us to reach our back half, but relative to conversations with the team, that looks positive right the book and ship for MCS was actually up 9%.

So there's a lot of traction and progress there as inventory within the channel is back to normalized levels. I think from a broader Xylem perspective, the ramp in the second half, we're going to see a significant ramp in volume here from the first quarter. That part of our normal seasonality. If you look at the third quarter, it's basically the same revenue dollar sequentially, and we go from a 1% growth to a 5% and then we'll see the normal seasonal ramp in the fourth quarter relative to water infrastructure to get us to another mid-single-digit number.

So I think relative to normal seasonality and the orders we've need to see win have progressed and give us confidence in our back half figures at this point in time.

Appreciate the color.

The next question comes from Mike Halloran with Baird.

Can you just touch on the capital allocation piece. One, could just see the magnitude of buyback in the quarter. What's the intent look like from here? Stock stays in and around where it is now? Do you see yourself being as aggressive as we move through the year? And then -- well, I'll leave that as the first question, sorry. .

Yes, I'll take that, Mike. We continue to buy in April, and we'll reassess the balance of Q2 after this month. And we're kind of looking at it a couple of ways. One is managing kind of our leverage between half a turn and 1 turn net debt to EBITDA.

And then obviously, we also want to balance that with taking advantage of stock dislocation. So we'll reassess it here at the end of the month as we get into the meat -- but we've got a real healthy balance sheet, and we'll continue to deploy capital across our whole framework over the course of the year.

Makes sense. And then maybe just talk about what the optionality looks like in terms of pipeline, actionability, et cetera? And then maybe just give a little bit more context on why the tuck-in you made on the analytics side made sense to you all.

Yes. I think in my opening remarks, and I've said this in the past, we talk about $1 billion of capital deployment towards M&A. -- to help us get to the kind of mid-teens EPS growth that we outlined at our Investor Day back in 2024. So we're still tracking for that. You've heard me talk a lot about our improved internal process, where before we were a bit more top down. a bit lumpy in terms of our execution on M&A, bigger targets. And now it's much more focused in the segments with the segment presidents really owning it, working bottom up.

And because of that work over the past couple of years, we have a very strong pipeline and across all of our segments. So I think that gives us a lot of confidence that will be more consistent over time with capital deployment. . What was the second part of your question, No, the tuck-in sorry. Yes, the recent deal we -- the recent deal we did sign -- so it's a -- like I said on the prepared remarks, we signed a -- first of all, we have confidentiality provisions with the seller.

So we're unable to share the targets name or a lot of the transaction details outside the purchase price that was $219 million. But it's really a highly engineered water quality instruments business. It strengthens our position in high-margin optical sensing and process applications. across clean water, wastewater environment and industry. And I think for us, we expect pretty significant revenue synergies, although it's a small to medium bolt-on, we do expect significant revenue synergies through leveraging our industrial and utility customer base.

And so I think from that perspective, it makes a lot of sense as we continue to grow our analytics part of our business.

And the next question comes from Jacob Levinson with Melius Research.

Just on measurement and control, it looks like things are stabilizing a little bit there. The order book looks pretty solid. Can you maybe just mark to market where we are in the cycle across electric and water because I know there's not necessarily synchronized right now, but it seems like there's a refresh cycle going on in electric and maybe that's coming in water. But -- how do you see that playing out this year and maybe into '27.

Yes. I mean just at the high level, if you go back to kind of 2008 and '09 with the American Reinvestment Recovery Act, kind of coming out of the great recession. The utilities on the electric side did a major push on AMI. And so you started to see a refresh there over the past, probably last year into this year in the next coming couple of years.

Water was probably anywhere from 5 to 7 years behind that initial wave of AMI deployments. And so as we're moving through the next 2 to 3 years, of electric refreshes we'll start to as we exit this decade going into 2030, start to see a pickup in the refresh of water. So that's a little bit of history and some of the timing as we think about energy and the refreshes going on now. And then as we get into the end of the decade, we'll start to see a turn in a pickup on the water refresh side.

Okay. That's helpful. And just on China, I think I heard you mentioned it was down 30% this quarter. Have we bottomed in that market yet, and it's just a function of the comps today. And I guess just relatedly, how much of that 30% is the market versus some of the work you're doing to reposition that business? .

Yes. I think we'd probably say it is bottoming out, kind of bouncing at the bottom here, right, with the team making some progress in some of their focused efforts with areas where we actually have more differentiation, and we're doubling down and focusing. Relative to the -- I think we've highlighted about 1/3 is market, 1/3 is kind of actions that our competitors are taking and then 1/3 is kind of us actively walking away from business. So I think for the total Xylem, most of the pressure is here in the first and second quarter, and that comp gets easier.

We said for the full year, it was about 1% headwind for sales. but that equates to, again, on the first half of the year, about 2% since it's primarily concentrated in the first and second quarters.

And the next question comes from Nathan Jones with Stifel.

I guess I'll start with an M&CS question. Obviously, seeing some pretty good order growth over the last few quarters. I mean it's been double digit for 4 quarters in a row. But the actual solar level of orders has been below the level of revenue.

Can you talk about how that supports growth, how we should think about growth going forward, not just this year, but as we go into '27, '28, what kind of order rates do you need to support growth over the next couple of years?

Yes, I think long term over the cycle as things normalize, it's at high-single-digit rate. Now relative to the lumpiness of the business and large projects come in, I think you have to look at a combination of our backlog position in conjunction with orders, right, because you see our backlog increased sequentially but not in the magnitude of our -- what the implied book-to-bill because the orders we received within the quarter were things of projects that we had won that now we have kind of a go with firm commitments to start delivering within the year. So I think it's really looking at over a kind of rolling probably 24 months looking at a high-single-digit order growth rate with a check on our backlog growth and position as that progresses as we hit some of the replenishments that Matthew highlighted.

Okay. I guess the follow-up is margins. The business already has sequentially stronger margins in the second half and the margin expansion is -- in 2026 is significantly lower in the first half than the implied expansion in the second half. So can you just talk about the contributors to the accelerating margin expansion in the second half and where we should see those materialize?

Yes. I think it's across the portfolio, but significant expansion within and water infrastructure, primarily as mix normalizes and we shift from price-driven growth to significant volume growth based upon some of the projects hitting within MCS and then within water infrastructure, getting past some of this walk away pressure in China pressure here in the first half. So that's really it's a volume and mix normalization kind of leveraging the structural costs that we've taken out last year and continue to take out in the first half of 2026.

And the next question comes from Bryan Blair with Oppenheimer.

To follow up on Nathan's question I guess I ask a little more directly. Given current visibility with MCS inclusive of mix expectations and the pending divestiture. How should we think about margin cadence through the back half? And more importantly, the -- what's the realistic exit rates or equivalently jumping off point for '27 margin?

Yes. I think as we said in the prepared remarks, MCS will sequentially increase and exit the year post the international metrology divestiture, well in excess of 25% EBITDA margins. I think that's the base rate going into next year with again, the water balance of sale normalizing and then the actions the team are taking on continued profitability improvements within the gas and electric business.

That's very encouraging. And we know your consolidated organic sales outlook is unchanged. And it doesn't sound like the moving parts within that have meaningfully shifted. But if we think about the segment expectations that you outlined last quarter, are there any shifts that you would call out, particularly curious about MCS and WSS just given the moving parts for those segments?

No, no, no major changes to the organic guide in aggregate and no major changes to the makeup between the segments.

The next question comes from William Grippin with Barclays.

Just wanted to come back to your comments on sort of price cost and really specifically kind of drilling into potential supply chain impacts here on material costs as sort of global supply chains continue to be disrupted. I know you've got some locked in sort of fixed price arrangements for materials. But could you elaborate a bit on how long do those last? How much does that insulate your business and what is your sort of visibility to managing any increase in raw materials costs post any of the fixed price arrangements?

I think we have some forward fixed contracts, but that's limited on some of our raw commodity exposures. I think our supply chain team does a phenomenal job at looking for alternate sources and competitive bids to help mitigate just increase in prices through dynamic supply chain management. But again, our first and fourth lever on this is incremental pricing again, the practice the team has had post COVID supply chain challenges, inflationary drivers now with tariffs and then now potential increased inflation due to rising fuel costs and the ripple effect that, that has across the industrial supply chain. .

I think we're confident that we can continue to offset that. The magnitude could compress margins slightly as we're not getting incremental flow-through of 40% on that on those types of price increases. But relative to dollar for dollar, right now, our expectations that we can manage. Obviously, we'll see the next 4 weeks, I think, will be critical to see what happens with the conflict of the [indiscernible] opens up.

But again, relative to the actions that we've taken internally, I think we're as prepared as we can be in the nimbleness of our new organizational construct.

I appreciate that. And then just wanted to follow up on 80/20. I know you had previously talked about 2026 being sort of the peak of walk away. I think that was a 200 basis point offset to the organic growth guidance. Could you just talk about the cadence or timing of that walk away? Is that primarily in the first half or evenly spread throughout the year?

No, I think it's more weighted to the first 2 to 3 quarters of the year. There's some longer-tail stuff within the treatment business within water infrastructure that will maybe extend past that, but we're more heavily weighted here in the first half of the year.

We'll wrap up there. Thanks for your questions, and thank you to everyone who joined today.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.