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Analyst
Alan Ratner
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 39on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 21%8 of 39 questions
- Companies
- 3questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 39 of 39 questions from 3 companies
DHID. R. Horton15 questions · 8 reporting periods · 2 of 15 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Do you feel like there's still further room to drive costs lower, or is there a risk
Show response
Paul expects modest further cost improvement despite fuel headwinds and said Canadian tariff changes would not materially affect DHI.
Calendar 2026 Q1
if you can kind of give a little more detail on what you're seeing on that front lately, especially with the higher oil prices of late
Show response
Wheat said cost savings from trade renegotiations are flowing through with more expected in Q3 and Q4. No tangible inflation from oil prices yet but would monitor if elevated for an extended period.
a lot of noise with the outstanding extended bill related to BFR. I see you did sell 500-plus homes in single-family rental this quarter
Show response
Romanowski said interest remains but uncertainty causing a pause. BFR communities underwritten as for-sale, providing flexibility. Forward sales model means no starts without firm contracts.
Calendar 2025 Q4
you're seeing on the land front in terms of costs started to come down at all in the land market? Are you seeing more of a you know, bid ask spread widening
Show response
Romanowski said no significant capitulation in raw land but some progress on development costs and improved terms. No broad distressed opportunities or defaulted deals in the market.
with specific regard to your rental business, I'm I'm curious how you're thinking about that in the context of the proposed ban on institutional buyers
Show response
Romanowski said rental focus is purpose-built communities, not selling to institutional buyers in for-sale communities. Shifted SFR to forward sales model. Feels good about positioning.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just curious if you can kind of talk a little bit about how demand trended through the quarter and whether you feel like that year-over-year order growth is any indication of maybe a little bit of ...
Show response
Murray said decent demand but choppy with rate volatility. Leaned into incentives as expected. Moderated starts to right-size inventory while leveraging compressed cycle times.
I'm just curious how you're thinking about kind of the -- maybe the upside and downside risk to that closing guidance
Show response
Romanowski emphasized 13% community count growth means they don't need higher absorptions per flag to hit the guide. Said traffic is solid but spring selling season will be the ultimate determinant.
Calendar 2025 Q2
it looks like the average FICO score of your buyer is down about five points year over year. It's the lowest it's been in quite a while. LTV combined LTV is ticking higher as well
Show response
Murray attributed FICO/LTV shift to more buyers selecting FHA product due to attractive 3.99% rate incentive. Said not seeing much student loan impact.
I guess on the incentives first. You guided for an uptick here in the fourth quarter. Just curious if you can kind of talk through how it trended through the quarter and into July
Show response
Romanowski acknowledged choppy incentive trends and market-by-market competitive dynamics. Said operators manage incentives at community level to exceed guidance on closings.
Calendar 2025 Q1
your spec count, if I'm looking at this correctly, is at the lowest levels we've seen in about almost four years
Show response
Lower spec count enabled by shorter cycle times. Starts expected to accelerate in Q3. Company positioned for growth with ability to respond nimbly.
We've started to see some price increase announcements coming from suppliers
Show response
No material supplier price increases yet. Any tariff impact expected in FY2026 closings, not current fiscal year.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I'm just curious how you guys are thinking about the next several years in the backdrop and whether you are changing any strategies
Show response
Management took a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing focus on affordability regardless of policy changes.
three quarters in a row, down year-over-year. Just curious how you are thinking about the start pace going forward
Show response
Lower starts driven by cycle time improvement, not demand weakness. Expect starts to align more with sales pace going forward.
Calendar 2024 Q3
Is there any thought of maybe kind of returning to some extent to the build-to-order market
Show response
No strategic shift. Community-by-community decisions. Strong demand for first-time buyers who want homes closing within 60 days.
your guide is obviously a bit below that in '25. And I know it is preliminary and I know it can obviously move around based on how the spring unfolds
Show response
Management emphasized positioning to lean into a stronger spring rather than directly addressing why guidance trails peer growth targets.
LENLennar14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
are you seeing an immediate negative impact on your sales pace and absorptions that is translating to that reduced guidance?
Show response
Management said it held a 4.3 sales-per-community-per-week pace while reducing incentives, crediting core-product execution and an improving sales funnel.
should we think about $1.8 billion being kind of the check you are writing every year to maintain those land banking
Show response
Diane confirmed most land banks are current-pay with some deferred, but said they did not have a precise annual maintenance number to provide.
Calendar 2026 Q1
have you continued to see the ability to either stabilize in lower your incentives even over the last couple of weeks
Show response
Stuart noted it was too early to assess impact of recent rate volatility, emphasizing one week doesn't make a trend. Jim and David confirmed no significant changes from their division conversations that morning. Stuart stressed the guidance was written up-to-date as of the night before.
I just wanted to touch on, I think, some of the comments you made, Stuart, about I think you referenced an expected improvement in SG&A in '26 versus '25
Show response
Stuart confirmed directional SG&A improvement but noted the timing of flow-through is uncertain. He cited the completed JDE ERP transition, reduced consulting spend, and senior management retirements including Bruce Gross as overhead reduction catalysts.
Calendar 2025 Q4
do you feel like this is something that will be announced in 2026 and something, whatever the government does have in mind, is there anything that can be implemented fairly quickly
Show response
Stuart expressed confidence that government action on affordability is likely in 2026, noting homebuilders have met with critical government officials and received significant attention. He emphasized the government is being thoughtful about unintended consequences.
can you just walk through exactly what's contributing to the continued pressure on margin
Show response
Jon attributed Q4 margin miss to unexpected government shutdown headwinds impacting consumer confidence. Stuart added that divisions expected incentives to decline through the quarter as rates eased, but the shutdown created a material offsetting effect on consumer psychology.
Calendar 2025 Q3
have you already started to dial back some of the incentives? And if so, what has the response been in terms of order pace or margin
Show response
Stuart framed the pullback as an opportunistic pause rather than strategy change, noting the answer on whether they've already dialed back incentives is no, Jon will direct that over the next few weeks.
is there any adjustment that's also going on, on the land side to account for this slower start pace, meaning have you adjusted the takedown schedules
Show response
Stuart firmly denied any land structure constraint, stating they deliberately built in ability to pause and even walk away (though expensive). The strategy is driven by market conditions and cost structure, not land obligations.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Do you feel like there are any markets right now that don't really have elasticity and demand, meaning incentives?
Show response
Stuart and Jon described an ebb and flow pattern where challenging markets rotate week to week rather than any consistently inelastic market. Jon highlighted tech worker-heavy markets as particularly sensitive.
have you seen any dramatic shifts year-to-date in terms of credit quality or just the overall ability for consumers to purchase homes?
Show response
Stuart and Bruce Gross confirmed market softening with waning confidence. Bruce noted shift toward more government loans (from 40% to 48%) but credit scores remain consistent and no student loan impact yet.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Should we expect all else equal, a similar seasonal trend in your margin this year?
Show response
Stuart explicitly declined to guide on back-half margins, calling it 'a backdoor to asking for some guidance on margin' and saying the company is staying away from that.
the land you're tying up today, is it being underwritten to an incentive level closer to today's level?
Show response
Stuart and Fred Rothman confirmed new land is being underwritten at current market conditions with higher margins targeted. They noted land sellers and development contractors are finally adjusting to market reality.
Calendar 2024 Q4
is there a lower bound on margin or an upper bound on incentives you're willing to explore to ensure targeted volume is still achieved?
Show response
Stuart affirmed commitment to volume strategy but did not provide specific margin floors or incentive ceilings, instead emphasizing adaptability and belief that volume sustains cost benefits.
definitely a lot going on right now, so I appreciate that
Show response
Stuart provided a thorough explanation of multiple affordability headwinds including down payment challenges, rate volatility creating hesitancy, and the difficulty navigating incentive configurations.
PHMPulteGroup10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 5 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Do you actually expect your overall cost basket to begin inflecting higher here over the next handful of quarters
Show response
Management said it would work to hold cost control but flagged lumber and especially oil-driven land development costs as risks.
Calendar 2026 Q1
can you talk through the difference in incentives you offer both across price points as well as BTO versus spec
Show response
Marshall confirmed highest incentives on first-time spec homes (affordability-focused). Move-up/active adult use forward commitment programs at low-to-mid 5% rates. Overall incentive expected to decline with BTO mix shift.
Can you quantify for us your exposure to land banking and talk more broadly about how your land banking deals are generally structured
Show response
Ossowski quantified: 18,000 lots (8%) with land bankers, ~15% deposit required, low double-digit carry rates. Over 85% of 127K option lots are with underlying land sellers directly. Total company deposits at 7.5% of future purchases ($7K per unit).
Calendar 2025 Q4
if you could talk about the demand trends and kind of the pricing trends you are seeing at each of your price points
Show response
Marshall quantified first-time ASP down ~6% from $467K to $438K. Move-up and active adult pricing essentially flat. Affordability pinch concentrated in entry-level segment.
I would love to hear a little bit more about those programs that you are offering right now in BTO, what kind of rates you are offering the consumer
Show response
Marshall confirmed BTO forward commitment rates in low-to-mid 5% range (~100bp below market, within 50bp of spec offers). BTO margins hundreds of basis points higher than spec due to strategic pricing on floor plans, options, and lot premiums.
Calendar 2025 Q3
have you actually seen the consumer looking and feeling more stretched that's coming into your communities? Are you having a harder time getting buyers qualified?
Show response
Marshall focused on consumer confidence as the key issue (near 10-year low), noting rate buydown incentives already exceed market rate improvements. Confidence, not rates, is the bottleneck.
Calendar 2025 Q1
curious just to get an update on what you're seeing in Florida. I think given your exposure there given how strong your margins have been in the state
Show response
Marshall noted Florida resale inventory around seven months (slightly above ideal), Pulte's Florida orders down only 5% YoY, and strategic positioning in move-up/active adult helps.
Is it possible suppliers? Is there trying to shift production domestically did that create some pressure here on some U.S. suppliers?
Show response
Marshall acknowledged potential supply chain hotspots from tariffs but expects disruptions to be more manageable than COVID, citing experienced procurement team.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How much margin do you feel like you would need to give up in order to achieve that 5% to 10% growth that it seems like a lot of the industry is targeting
Show response
Marshall maintained 5-10% long-term growth target driven by community count growth, but indicated current pricing environment makes incremental discounting unfavorable for returns.
kind of a big picture question on the state but what are your current thoughts on Florida? And where do you see that business going for you guys going forward?
Show response
Marshall emphasized return-focused approach regardless of region, noted Pulte's inland community positioning reduces storm risk, and highlighted Florida's structural advantages.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| DHI D. R. Horton | 15 | 13%2 of 15 questions |
| LEN Lennar | 14 | 7%1 of 14 questions |
| PHM PulteGroup | 10 | 50%5 of 10 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 50%1 of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 6 | 50%3 of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q1 | 6 | 33%2 of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q2 | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q3 | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q4 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2026 Q2 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 3 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 50% (1 of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 50% (3 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q16 questions · challenge rate 33% (2 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q24 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q35 questions · challenge rate 20% (1 of 5 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2026 Q24 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand16
- Pricing13
- Margin11
- Cost Pressure6
- Competitive Dynamics6
- Trade Tariffs4
- Supply Chain4
- Regulation Policy3
- Revenue Growth3
- Capital Allocation3
Show all 16 topics
- Capex Investment3
- Credit3
- Guidance Reliability3
- Macroeconomic3
- Geographic Expansion3
- M&A1