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Analyst

Alan Ratner

Zelman & Associates · covers Consumer Cyclical

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).

Questions
39on tracked calls
Challenge rate
21%8 of 39 questions
Companies
3questioned at least once
Reporting periods
8with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 39 of 39 questions from 3 companies

DHID. R. Horton15 questions · 8 reporting periods · 2 of 15 challenging
DHI company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Do you feel like there's still further room to drive costs lower, or is there a risk

Cost PressureTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Paul expects modest further cost improvement despite fuel headwinds and said Canadian tariff changes would not materially affect DHI.

Calendar 2026 Q1

if you can kind of give a little more detail on what you're seeing on that front lately, especially with the higher oil prices of late

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Wheat said cost savings from trade renegotiations are flowing through with more expected in Q3 and Q4. No tangible inflation from oil prices yet but would monitor if elevated for an extended period.

a lot of noise with the outstanding extended bill related to BFR. I see you did sell 500-plus homes in single-family rental this quarter

Regulation PolicyRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Romanowski said interest remains but uncertainty causing a pause. BFR communities underwritten as for-sale, providing flexibility. Forward sales model means no starts without firm contracts.

Calendar 2025 Q4

you're seeing on the land front in terms of costs started to come down at all in the land market? Are you seeing more of a you know, bid ask spread widening

Cost PressurePricingTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Romanowski said no significant capitulation in raw land but some progress on development costs and improved terms. No broad distressed opportunities or defaulted deals in the market.

with specific regard to your rental business, I'm I'm curious how you're thinking about that in the context of the proposed ban on institutional buyers

Regulation PolicyRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Romanowski said rental focus is purpose-built communities, not selling to institutional buyers in for-sale communities. Shifted SFR to forward sales model. Feels good about positioning.

Calendar 2025 Q3

just curious if you can kind of talk a little bit about how demand trended through the quarter and whether you feel like that year-over-year order growth is any indication of maybe a little bit of ...

Show response

Murray said decent demand but choppy with rate volatility. Leaned into incentives as expected. Moderated starts to right-size inventory while leveraging compressed cycle times.

I'm just curious how you're thinking about kind of the -- maybe the upside and downside risk to that closing guidance

Guidance ReliabilityDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Romanowski emphasized 13% community count growth means they don't need higher absorptions per flag to hit the guide. Said traffic is solid but spring selling season will be the ultimate determinant.

Calendar 2025 Q2

it looks like the average FICO score of your buyer is down about five points year over year. It's the lowest it's been in quite a while. LTV combined LTV is ticking higher as well

ChallengingCreditDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Murray attributed FICO/LTV shift to more buyers selecting FHA product due to attractive 3.99% rate incentive. Said not seeing much student loan impact.

I guess on the incentives first. You guided for an uptick here in the fourth quarter. Just curious if you can kind of talk through how it trended through the quarter and into July

PricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Romanowski acknowledged choppy incentive trends and market-by-market competitive dynamics. Said operators manage incentives at community level to exceed guidance on closings.

Calendar 2025 Q1

your spec count, if I'm looking at this correctly, is at the lowest levels we've seen in about almost four years

Supply ChainCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Lower spec count enabled by shorter cycle times. Starts expected to accelerate in Q3. Company positioned for growth with ability to respond nimbly.

We've started to see some price increase announcements coming from suppliers

Trade TariffsCost PressureTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

No material supplier price increases yet. Any tariff impact expected in FY2026 closings, not current fiscal year.

Calendar 2024 Q4

I'm just curious how you guys are thinking about the next several years in the backdrop and whether you are changing any strategies

Trade TariffsRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Management took a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing focus on affordability regardless of policy changes.

three quarters in a row, down year-over-year. Just curious how you are thinking about the start pace going forward

Supply ChainCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Lower starts driven by cycle time improvement, not demand weakness. Expect starts to align more with sales pace going forward.

Calendar 2024 Q3

Is there any thought of maybe kind of returning to some extent to the build-to-order market

Competitive DynamicsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

No strategic shift. Community-by-community decisions. Strong demand for first-time buyers who want homes closing within 60 days.

your guide is obviously a bit below that in '25. And I know it is preliminary and I know it can obviously move around based on how the spring unfolds

ChallengingCompetitive DynamicsGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management emphasized positioning to lean into a stronger spring rather than directly addressing why guidance trails peer growth targets.

LENLennar14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 14 challenging
LEN company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

are you seeing an immediate negative impact on your sales pace and absorptions that is translating to that reduced guidance?

Show response

Management said it held a 4.3 sales-per-community-per-week pace while reducing incentives, crediting core-product execution and an improving sales funnel.

should we think about $1.8 billion being kind of the check you are writing every year to maintain those land banking

Capital AllocationCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Diane confirmed most land banks are current-pay with some deferred, but said they did not have a precise annual maintenance number to provide.

Calendar 2026 Q1

have you continued to see the ability to either stabilize in lower your incentives even over the last couple of weeks

MarginPricingCreditTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Stuart noted it was too early to assess impact of recent rate volatility, emphasizing one week doesn't make a trend. Jim and David confirmed no significant changes from their division conversations that morning. Stuart stressed the guidance was written up-to-date as of the night before.

I just wanted to touch on, I think, some of the comments you made, Stuart, about I think you referenced an expected improvement in SG&A in '26 versus '25

Cost PressureCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Stuart confirmed directional SG&A improvement but noted the timing of flow-through is uncertain. He cited the completed JDE ERP transition, reduced consulting spend, and senior management retirements including Bruce Gross as overhead reduction catalysts.

Calendar 2025 Q4

do you feel like this is something that will be announced in 2026 and something, whatever the government does have in mind, is there anything that can be implemented fairly quickly

MacroeconomicDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Stuart expressed confidence that government action on affordability is likely in 2026, noting homebuilders have met with critical government officials and received significant attention. He emphasized the government is being thoughtful about unintended consequences.

can you just walk through exactly what's contributing to the continued pressure on margin

MarginPricingDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Jon attributed Q4 margin miss to unexpected government shutdown headwinds impacting consumer confidence. Stuart added that divisions expected incentives to decline through the quarter as rates eased, but the shutdown created a material offsetting effect on consumer psychology.

Calendar 2025 Q3

have you already started to dial back some of the incentives? And if so, what has the response been in terms of order pace or margin

MarginPricingDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Stuart framed the pullback as an opportunistic pause rather than strategy change, noting the answer on whether they've already dialed back incentives is no, Jon will direct that over the next few weeks.

is there any adjustment that's also going on, on the land side to account for this slower start pace, meaning have you adjusted the takedown schedules

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Stuart firmly denied any land structure constraint, stating they deliberately built in ability to pause and even walk away (though expensive). The strategy is driven by market conditions and cost structure, not land obligations.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Do you feel like there are any markets right now that don't really have elasticity and demand, meaning incentives?

DemandPricingGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Stuart and Jon described an ebb and flow pattern where challenging markets rotate week to week rather than any consistently inelastic market. Jon highlighted tech worker-heavy markets as particularly sensitive.

have you seen any dramatic shifts year-to-date in terms of credit quality or just the overall ability for consumers to purchase homes?

Show response

Stuart and Bruce Gross confirmed market softening with waning confidence. Bruce noted shift toward more government loans (from 40% to 48%) but credit scores remain consistent and no student loan impact yet.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Should we expect all else equal, a similar seasonal trend in your margin this year?

MarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Stuart explicitly declined to guide on back-half margins, calling it 'a backdoor to asking for some guidance on margin' and saying the company is staying away from that.

the land you're tying up today, is it being underwritten to an incentive level closer to today's level?

MarginPricingCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Stuart and Fred Rothman confirmed new land is being underwritten at current market conditions with higher margins targeted. They noted land sellers and development contractors are finally adjusting to market reality.

Calendar 2024 Q4

is there a lower bound on margin or an upper bound on incentives you're willing to explore to ensure targeted volume is still achieved?

ChallengingMarginPricingDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Stuart affirmed commitment to volume strategy but did not provide specific margin floors or incentive ceilings, instead emphasizing adaptability and belief that volume sustains cost benefits.

definitely a lot going on right now, so I appreciate that

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Stuart provided a thorough explanation of multiple affordability headwinds including down payment challenges, rate volatility creating hesitancy, and the difficulty navigating incentive configurations.

PHMPulteGroup10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 5 of 10 challenging
PHM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Do you actually expect your overall cost basket to begin inflecting higher here over the next handful of quarters

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Management said it would work to hold cost control but flagged lumber and especially oil-driven land development costs as risks.

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you talk through the difference in incentives you offer both across price points as well as BTO versus spec

Show response

Marshall confirmed highest incentives on first-time spec homes (affordability-focused). Move-up/active adult use forward commitment programs at low-to-mid 5% rates. Overall incentive expected to decline with BTO mix shift.

Can you quantify for us your exposure to land banking and talk more broadly about how your land banking deals are generally structured

Show response

Ossowski quantified: 18,000 lots (8%) with land bankers, ~15% deposit required, low double-digit carry rates. Over 85% of 127K option lots are with underlying land sellers directly. Total company deposits at 7.5% of future purchases ($7K per unit).

Calendar 2025 Q4

if you could talk about the demand trends and kind of the pricing trends you are seeing at each of your price points

Show response

Marshall quantified first-time ASP down ~6% from $467K to $438K. Move-up and active adult pricing essentially flat. Affordability pinch concentrated in entry-level segment.

I would love to hear a little bit more about those programs that you are offering right now in BTO, what kind of rates you are offering the consumer

Show response

Marshall confirmed BTO forward commitment rates in low-to-mid 5% range (~100bp below market, within 50bp of spec offers). BTO margins hundreds of basis points higher than spec due to strategic pricing on floor plans, options, and lot premiums.

Calendar 2025 Q3

have you actually seen the consumer looking and feeling more stretched that's coming into your communities? Are you having a harder time getting buyers qualified?

ChallengingDemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Marshall focused on consumer confidence as the key issue (near 10-year low), noting rate buydown incentives already exceed market rate improvements. Confidence, not rates, is the bottleneck.

Calendar 2025 Q1

curious just to get an update on what you're seeing in Florida. I think given your exposure there given how strong your margins have been in the state

ChallengingDemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Marshall noted Florida resale inventory around seven months (slightly above ideal), Pulte's Florida orders down only 5% YoY, and strategic positioning in move-up/active adult helps.

Is it possible suppliers? Is there trying to shift production domestically did that create some pressure here on some U.S. suppliers?

ChallengingTrade TariffsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Marshall acknowledged potential supply chain hotspots from tariffs but expects disruptions to be more manageable than COVID, citing experienced procurement team.

Calendar 2024 Q4

How much margin do you feel like you would need to give up in order to achieve that 5% to 10% growth that it seems like a lot of the industry is targeting

ChallengingMarginRevenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Marshall maintained 5-10% long-term growth target driven by community count growth, but indicated current pricing environment makes incremental discounting unfavorable for returns.

kind of a big picture question on the state but what are your current thoughts on Florida? And where do you see that business going for you guys going forward?

ChallengingMarginGeographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Marshall emphasized return-focused approach regardless of region, noted Pulte's inland community positioning reduces storm risk, and highlighted Florida's structural advantages.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
DHI D. R. Horton1513%2 of 15 questions
LEN Lennar147%1 of 14 questions
PHM PulteGroup1050%5 of 10 questions
  • DHI
    D. R. Horton · 15 questions
    13%2 of 15 questions
  • LEN
    Lennar · 14 questions
    7%1 of 14 questions
  • PHM
    PulteGroup · 10 questions
    50%5 of 10 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q3250%1 of 2 questions1
2024 Q4650%3 of 6 questions3
2025 Q1633%2 of 6 questions3
2025 Q2425%1 of 4 questions2
2025 Q3520%1 of 5 questions3
2025 Q460%none of 6 questions3
2026 Q160%none of 6 questions3
2026 Q240%none of 4 questions3
  1. 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 50% (1 of 2 questions) · 1 company
  2. 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 50% (3 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  3. 2025 Q16 questions · challenge rate 33% (2 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  4. 2025 Q24 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 2 companies
  5. 2025 Q35 questions · challenge rate 20% (1 of 5 questions) · 3 companies
  6. 2025 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  7. 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  8. 2026 Q24 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Demand16
  • Pricing13
  • Margin11
  • Cost Pressure6
  • Competitive Dynamics6
  • Trade Tariffs4
  • Supply Chain4
  • Regulation Policy3
  • Revenue Growth3
  • Capital Allocation3
Show all 16 topics
  • Capex Investment3
  • Credit3
  • Guidance Reliability3
  • Macroeconomic3
  • Geographic Expansion3
  • M&A1