Andrew Wong

Bohn argued CF is misvalued against chemical peers, citing almost 40% higher production volume and almost 60% lower share count, and pledged continued buybacks while shares are undervalued.

Chris said higher return profiles on projects in motion or under consideration. Blue Point site expandable over time with second plant seeing efficiencies from existing infrastructure including dock, tanks, and offsites. Nothing imminent on expansion but evaluating. Capital allocation philosophy unchanged with excess free cash flow expected to go to share repurchases or dividends.

Chris confirmed total Blue Point cost unchanged at $3.7B but payment timing updated as procurement progresses. Highlighted Slide 15 showing annual cash outflows manageable against $1.8B free cash flow, enabling continued buybacks alongside growth CapEx. CF took 40% interest specifically to maintain capital allocation flexibility.

Chris confirmed site can hold up to 5 world-scale ammonia plants. Common infrastructure provides synergies reducing cost of subsequent plants. Focus currently on first plant with timing for second dependent on market dynamics and module yard learnings. Long-term S&D tightening expected to create organic growth opportunities.

Tony argued against leveraging up citing need for balance sheet flexibility in commodity business, referencing Waggaman cash acquisition as example. Chris noted cash flow generation is sufficient to fund both Blue Point and significant buybacks simultaneously. Greg highlighted $1.3B returned to shareholders plus $700M CapEx with $1.8B still on hand.

Greg attributed SG&A to bonus accrual catch-up. Non-gas ammonia costs elevated by increased purchased tons from Trinidad and UK at market prices, but these contributed to ammonia segment gross margin dollars being up 30% year-over-year.

Chris outlined CBAM transitional phase active with full implementation January 2026. Donaldsonville low-carbon ammonia gets roughly $25/mt benefit initially, growing to $100/mt by 2030. Tony noted CF already seeing demand and premium for low-carbon product before CBAM kicks in.

Bert argued Nord Stream rebuild unlikely, European gas reliance on Russia not returning. Expected US gas exports to rise from 15 Bcf to mid-20s. Chris added European curtailments expected to continue regardless of peace outcome given rebuild timelines.

Bert described carbon premium pricing as separate line item starting at lower levels then growing with demand competition. Customers across ag corn value chain and industrial intermediates showing interest in scope emissions improvements.

Bert noted CF exports UAN to EU and UK with established partners. Russian UAN volumes to US likely stable under current zero-tariff regime. Noted Russia balancing between UAN, urea, ammonia, and ammonium nitrate end molecules.

Tony noted the required ammonia price of $450/mt is below current market levels. Chris highlighted ATR technology gives 10% more production and 50% more carbon capture vs SMR.

Tony defended the dual strategy citing 1-10 year TSR outperformance vs peers. Emphasized deploying capital in core ammonia operations plus buybacks for excess capital.

Bodine credited the $705 settlement, below spot, to a symbiotic Gulf Coast refiner relationship valuing Mosaic's ratable sulfur baseload. He said ramp-up would take weeks, not months, once sulfur returns, having prioritized asset health.

Bodine confirmed CVD sunset review starting April with duties remaining in place through the process. Evaluating participation needs. Wang noted the 14-15% drop in US phosphate shipments was concentrated in fall application, meaning yield impact would show in the current crop. Precision agriculture enabling rate cuts but phosphorus depletion cannot be sustained without replenishment.

Bodine confirmed 1.8M ton trailing rate is proven floor with upside commitment to 2M tons. Luciano provided cost detail: Aug-Sept conversion cost under $120/ton, with rule of thumb $7/ton reduction per additional 100K tons quarterly. At 2M ton run rate, cost would be $100-$105. Phosphate EBITDA could improve 50%+ if production increased 25% due to operating leverage.

Bodine described motor control center elevation above flood stage, wind-hardening modifications to warehouses, and gypsum stack freeboard management for hurricane season. Explained New Wales gypsum pump replacements were discovered only when pushing to full rates as rock quality changes increased gypsum output per ton. Confirmed no similar bottlenecks identified at other facilities.

Bodine stated incremental Mosaic production will be absorbed by pent-up Indian demand (up 40% YoY to 6.4M tons). Wang explained India needs 2 million tons for Kharif season with only 300K tons secured. Some US demand may shift to Brazil if affordability tightens but overall market remains tight.

Bodine confirmed Carlsbad process is active with potential news in coming weeks but deferred specifics to March Analyst Day. Ciani said Ma'aden shares could be partially monetized before lock-up but not the full position.