Bill Peterson

Jack walked through fewer fiscal and shipping days, holiday downtime and larger Q4 outages, offered a historical 7% Q3-to-Q4 decline as a planning figure, and said pricing offsets the volume dip.

Leon said Nucor can supply roughly 95% of a data center's steel and expects growth into 2027; John Hollatz sized the border wall and expects shipments well into 2028.

John Hollatz described weekly tonnage and duration but did not quantify total opportunity or Nucor's share percentage.

Steve Laxton confirmed the high end of the shipment range and acknowledged normal Q4 seasonality; an executive added the 91-day Q3 and 89-day Q4 calendar detail.

New CFO Jack Sullivan emphasized continuity with predecessor's strategy of maintaining healthy balance sheet, investing for growth and generating attractive shareholder returns.

Management provided detailed timeline: pickle line in Q2, cold mill and galv line next, melt shop and hot mill later in year. All commissioning complete by year-end, ~50% utilization by end of 2027.

Leon confirmed 5% is achievable with demand creating uplift across virtually every product group. Record structural backlogs, robust nonres/industrial demand, and pricing sticking across sheet, plate, bar, and beam.

Leon acknowledged USMCA resolution took longer than expected with July renegotiations ahead. Emphasized Nucor supports rules of origin enforcement, continued 232 policies, and Leveling the Playing Field 2.0 Act. Expressed confidence in pro-America trade continuation.

Dave Sumoski cited CSI slab costs, refractory consumables, and labor from planned outages, but noted YoY costs down 5%.

Leon clarified warehousing is flat YoY but data centers are projecting double-digit growth for 5-6 years. Nucor Warehouse and Data Systems group provides overarching solutions for hyperscalers.

Leon noted opportunity across the board at 85% utilization, with imports still too high at 20-21% and needing to reach low teens. Emphasized North American industry can supply domestic needs.

Leon explained margin compression reflects backlog pricing lag, not demand weakness, with a recent price increase announced. John Hollatz noted some backlogs extend 9 months creating normal expansion/contraction cycles.

Steve noted EILM rising is expected given improving pricing and broad-based backlog strength, plus the Nucor fiscal calendar effect of a 95-day quarter.

Leon acknowledged some pull-forward but emphasized no drop-off in order entry rates post-tariff announcement, with structural backlog at all-time highs comprised of awarded project orders, not speculative distribution.

Brad Ford cited lean inventories, strong backlogs at multi-year highs, and upcoming demand from military, infrastructure, and energy. Brandenburg on track for consistent EBITDA positive by mid-2025.

John Hollatz declined to call a trough but noted warehouse market flat for the year, margins well above pre-pandemic levels, and backlogs extending into Q2.

Said data centers are about 8% of fabrication and about 15% of structurals, and demand is broadly based.

Cited the West Virginia melt shop closure improving internal supply plus broad structural demand continuing into 2027.

Management confirmed exiting the year at least 90% utilization and expects aluminum to be earnings positive in the second half.

Management said lead times remain right where they want them, with structural/rail and SBQ running hard and efficiently amid strong order books.

Mark noted STLD has optionality on both sides and has not seen substantial substitution. Theresa countered with recent announcements from a major automaker adding more aluminum to auto bodies in the Midwest, suggesting demand growth rather than substitution away.

Barry confirmed all three flat-roll mills had Q4 outages due to coinciding maintenance schedules on different-aged assets (Butler 30 years, Columbus 20, Sinton new). No Q1 outages planned; next maintenance expected in Q2. Outages included capability additions and standard maintenance.

Theresa called out the unusual concentration of all three flat-roll mill maintenance outages in Q4. Confirmed seasonal volume decline will compound maintenance impact but declined to quantify relative to historical patterns. Barry noted outages are regular maintenance planned long in advance.

Barry highlighted low-carbon content as key differentiator that enhanced early relationships. Sinton designed with automotive base proximity in mind, OEM packages submitted to all customers. Received Volkswagen outstanding award in Q2. Engaged in renewable and nuclear energy across flat-roll platforms. Growth expected organically as customers value low carbon footprint and responsive service.

Mark attributed Q2 lower utilization to oxygen disruption at Sinton and scheduled maintenance at all three flat-roll mills. Implied a large portion of lost volume will return in Q3.

Theresa confirmed joist/deck mix has stabilized at approximately 50/50 over the last year with no expected change in H2.

Theresa declined specific guidance but noted 8-12 week substrate inventory lag, escalating steel costs can drive pricing power, and volume leverage is highly impactful in fabrication. Feeling very strong for the full year.

Mark said scrap spread tightness is not expected to be structural, some emotion in the market as STLD enters. Scrap intensity: can stock ~95% recycled content, automotive grades ~60-65%. OmniSource developing new separation technologies for 5000 and 6000 series from automotive process scrap.

Theresa confirmed incremental increase as operations ramp in H1 2025, with Q1 expected at $30-35M range. Costs will be offset by sales beginning in June when commercial shipments start.

Kathleen said diesel was the largest driver, gave regional diesel volumes, and noted rising U.S. electricity rates.

Kathleen gave about 35,000 a ton on a copper-equivalent basis and cited the low U.S. tax and royalty burden.

Explained Freeport would benefit from any US premium since US sales price on Comex, and cited just under $6 billion of remaining NOLs.

Quirk confirmed mud removal 97% complete for PB2/PB3 startup. Cement pour completed for protective barriers. Mark Johnson added no real hurdles seen, with key supplier response strong on communication systems for remote mining.

Quirk cited stabilized grades, moderated inflation, more experienced workforce, and better asset health. Leach at sub-$1/lb incremental cost, targeting 300M lbs in 2026 from 200M currently. Cory Stevens added Morenci additive trial producing 50% more than expected.

Quirk explained model recalibration on drawpoint-by-drawpoint basis to better reflect timing of ore grade flows. Mark Johnson added that gold shifts laterally between drawpoints, making estimation more complex than open pit era.

Quirk confirmed identified additives do not rely on China and can be recycled to minimize use. Supply chain robustness is part of the evaluation criteria.

Quirk detailed helicopter irrigation lines, deep raffinate drilling, additive trials, heat injection with geothermal steam potential. Existing technologies sufficient to reach 300M lbs.

Quirk confirmed Q4 ~50M lbs was in line with plan. Multiple projects underway including deep raffinate injection, expanded access, and heat application to scale further.

Quirk explained FCX sells U.S. production domestically and would benefit from any tariff-driven COMEX premium. Main concern is global growth and inflation impact.

Tom said the first of ~10 phased TIAs could start around year-end, pending resolution of a few open industry-wide policy items.

Adam said demand far exceeds build capacity and the ramp is being scaled in chunks, balanced across certification and commercial uses.

Tom said prior autonomous VTOL data de-risks the transition; CTOL wraps up with piloted VTOL later this year, positioning for TIA testing into next year. Direct.

Adam said first piloted flight was within days; the modest delay came from getting the 40,000-parameter flight-test instrumentation working, now resolved.

Adam called the certification submission process lumpy and said document counts should tick up over the year, without committing to a pace.

Back-end loaded revenue guide confidence across vision and surgical. Management responded with context on this topic.