Carlos De Alba

Steve Laxton reaffirmed the prior industry demand growth estimate without revision.

Al Behr acknowledged a lag exists but explicitly declined to quantify it or name the reference index, repeating only that the transfer price is influenced by pig iron.

Leon reframed the import uptick as a demand signal rather than a pricing gap, noting overall imports at 16% versus 22-27% historically.

Management indicated traditional preference for buybacks and dollar cost averaging through the year, though not ruling out special dividends entirely.

Leon referenced Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel and Hyundai's Louisiana sheet mill as examples. Management took a wait-and-see approach on the executive order's broader implications.

Leon noted beam mill has significant upside at ~70% utilization while consistently being one of the strongest profit generators. Randy confirmed strong longs momentum with record backlogs.

Leon identified sheet as the primary margin pressure area due to Brazilian slab tariffs, while beam backlogs are at historic highs. Randy Spicer confirmed strong bar momentum with multiyear high backlogs and extending lead times.

Leon noted utilization improved from 74-75% to 80% in Q1, with potential for slight improvement through the year but declined to forecast specific Q2 rates.

Steve confirmed inventories roughly in line with seasonal norms across most product lines, with some building in areas reflecting higher backlogs.

Leon confirmed M&A appetite but emphasized disciplined capital allocation, noting 1.6x debt-to-EBITDA and highest investment-grade rating in the industry.

Leon acknowledged the Mexico JV (NJSM) exposure but emphasized it is very small relative to Nucor's overall volume. Noah noted high-value exports vs commodity imports.

Saw no distorting factor and some room for a reduction, contingent on hitting production goals and on by-product prices.

Put 2026 at a little under 920,000 tons and cash cost flat or slightly better, but held 2027 production until the January call.

Blamed longer mechanical assembly and engineering work, reported no capex change and deferred any capex update to the January call.

CFO declined to detail LME/COMEX exposure, noting the arbitrage is now much smaller and not a concern.

CFO put pre-byproduct cash cost at about $2.30, oil-price contingent near term, with Tia Maria's ~$1.16/lb cost lowering it as it ramps.

CFO guided Q4 cash cost before by-products in the $2.15-$2.20 range, down from $2.23, driven by Peruvian production recovery.

CFO confirmed third-party purchases were for Mexican IMMSA facilities only, will likely continue. No cathodes purchased despite Ilo smelter maintenance.

Management characterized the Sonora spill issue as resolved, hinting talks may serve broader objectives but providing no specifics.

CFO detailed a 20-day multi-annual Ilo smelter maintenance in Q3, with a switch to concentrate sales and net cost seen flat-to-lower.

Management deferred to the Board but signaled continuity of returning cash to shareholders, helped by stronger prices.

Cited tight markets, lead times into 2027, lean inventories and Q4 outages, with stable scrap costs, so spreads stay strong to slightly higher.

CFO said the Q2 build reflected company-wide pricing gains and expects working capital to be neutral-to-a-funding-source in the second half.

Management said OpEx is unchanged, Columbus CapEx rises $10-20M mostly from construction inflation, and only incremental logistics cost remains.

Mark explained quality issue was principally limited to January with some leak into February, a product stain that should have been caught earlier. Theresa clarified it was a process issue, not equipment. Resolved and operating smoothly with increasing volumes. Q1 shipments ~22,000 tons, expects 60,000-70,000 tons in Q2. Majority of shipments are high-quality can sheet.

Theresa said majority of aluminum working capital build already captured in 2025. Only slight fluctuations expected with nothing material. Q1 will see pressure from annual profit sharing payment. Beyond 2026, sustaining capital is $250-300M with no specific material projects named.

Mark wants to walk before running but sees definite growth opportunity. Envisions leveraging pre-paint capabilities for aluminum and believes room exists for a larger mill asset. Theresa added that even before 50% tariffs, the US sheet deficit was over 1.5 million metric tons, STLD only adding 650,000, structural need independent of trade action.

Mark confirmed overhang eroding, should be depleted by end of Q4. Import profile almost non-existent. Hot band pricing turned up in mid-September after softening through the quarter. Quite optimistic for Q1 and Q2 2026.

Mark said no material change in view; 40-50% range reflects startup variability. Theresa confirmed EBITDA positive still expected in H2, got more specific saying Q4 but whether September or November is not a significant difference.

Theresa acknowledged customer hesitancy around administration uncertainty and interest rates created open patches filled with smaller projects. Barry confirmed robust activity and projects coming off hold status, with growth expected through Q2 and H2.

Explained terms were fixed in the February MOU, a formal application was filed in June, and no prescribed timeline exists but they aim to finish this year.

Quirk gave a detailed response covering the equipment delivery schedule, construction timeline, and team capability, while acknowledging risks around delivery and construction delays.

Johnson confirmed the regulators handle both wet and dry material, providing upside flexibility as conditions evolve.

Quirk confirmed 2027-2028 guidance includes only ~250M lbs of leach, not the full 800M target. Upside from leach scaling and Baghdad expansion is not in guidance numbers.

Quirk noted Lone Star would mix leach and concentrate production. Leach additive success could shift more to leach. FCX well-positioned with existing smelter infrastructure.

Quirk said discussions have focused on what Freeport is doing near-term through leach innovation and Bagdad advancement rather than greenfield smelter concepts.

Quirk outlined $80M capital cost for autonomous truck conversion with attractive returns, plus broader US cost target of $2.50/lb by 2027 from current $3.