Conor Cunningham

Ed pointed to sustained industry pricing, limited customer resistance and nonfuel cost relief as the path to the framework.

Joe said Delta manages for margin and adds supply in premium seats rather than main cabin, with an 86 load factor in the quarter.

Joe answered directly, tying the higher exit-rate TRASM to the fuel-recapture pricing that built through the quarter.

Ed drew parallels to 2009-2011 when high fuel drove industry consolidation (including Delta's Northwest acquisition). Expects this fuel spike to force more significant structural reform than COVID did, as carriers failing to earn cost of capital face owner pressure.

Ed said fuel is the key variable, demand is where they expected it. Fuel volatility is too extreme day-to-day to guide now, but they believe oil will be higher for longer. Distinguished this from the 2025 situation which was revenue-based uncertainty and harder to predict.

Joe noted Transatlantic and Pacific resilience is built on the domestic foundation and coastal gateway investments. The 787 order is a future marker for international expansion. Fleet efficiency (replacing 777 with A350/787) drives incremental margin.

Joe emphasized continuity and deeper integration of commercial functions. Highlighted early innings of merchandising, more Amex premium products, exciting new fleet, and multibillion-dollar opportunity in retailing tools over the next several years.

Glen credited the sales team and noted mild total share gains with higher revenue share gains. Dan added September corporate was 9% without CrowdStrike. Glen noted pent-up demand from spring travel suspension also contributing, with sales trends continuing into the current week.

Glen confirmed premium products have the highest margins in descending order of their premium tier. Delta Premium Select margins are converging with Delta One due to strong popularity; management working to re-separate them.

Dan explained cash tax payment deferred at least a full year due to depreciation acceleration. H2 cash flow driven by investment pacing, booking curve normalization releasing advance ticket liability, and working capital release from maintenance material reduction.

Glen pointed to international long-haul inflecting positive post-summer as a base, with domestic forward bookings indicating movement toward positive. Ed noted the wide guidance range reflects remaining uncertainty.

Ed expressed confidence Delta will be advantaged as in prior dislocations, noting the strong will get stronger, though timing of resolution uncertain.

Glen acknowledged the risk but noted affluent wealth still $32B above 2019 levels, with no cracks seen yet in premium or international cash sales.

Glen confirmed favorable competitive capacity dynamics in the transatlantic, also noting the Paris Olympics comp is a tailwind for summer 2025.

Glen confirmed very strong January demand with two record sales days, though declined to call Q2-Q4 this early.

Bernstein said 2026 non-newbuild CapEx is $2.4 billion and expected to step up somewhat for a few years due to 5 Evolution ship dry docks vs 2, with full guidance in December.

Bernstein said the Europe yield question is hard to isolate given seasonal and geographic shifts; the goal is optimizing total revenue and operating income via redeployment.

Management outlined the brand rollout at Celebration Key, with Princess scheduled through the winter and landside capacity the limiting factor.

Weinstein explained guidance was set using Monday's forward curve with rounding. Provided sensitivity ($160M per 10% change) for investors to model different scenarios.

Weinstein emphasized pricing is based on what the market can bear, not fuel cost recovery. The focus is using less fuel rather than passing costs through.

Weinstein confirmed a shift toward maintaining price integrity using bundled pricing and packages rather than discounting. Caribbean supply growth has historically been absorbed over time.

Bernstein targets approximately 2.75x for a BBB rating, expecting to reach under 3x by year-end 2026 even with four dividend payments.

Bernstein confirmed current plan has fewer dry dock days in 2027 but cautioned plans can shift.

Weinstein described a nuanced picture: some laggards were at all-time highs in 2019, others started low. No glaring investment holes; rightsizing is done. Multiple brands rapidly climbing the leaderboard.

Weinstein declined specifics but noted the new program creates a distinct tie between loyalty and the credit card, with the card supercharging points and status.

Bernstein quantified Celebration Key at approximately 0.5 point full-year cost impact, about 1 point each in Q3 and Q4.

Weinstein cited 24% yield growth over two years as evidence that increased marketing investment is working, with most brands having no new builds.

Weinstein highlighted the natural commodity hedge from not hedging fuel and noted room for adjustments depending on circumstances.

Leskinen agreed directly, confirming Q3 as peak and a 2-3% core CASM-Ex target for 2027.

Andrew confirmed they analyze profitability continuously. Price increases going well and demand strong. Proactively canceled off-peak flights anticipating potential weakness. So far demand hanging in.

Andrew highlighted business revenue up 25% in last two weeks, accelerating from 16% in Q1 and 9% late last year. Yields up 20% YoY. Leisure bouncing mid-single digits. Mike added guidance builds in demand destruction as act-of-God contingency though not yet observed.

Andrew expressed confidence in eventual flip but cannot predict timing. Driven entirely by when competitors stop flying unprofitable routes. When it happens, will be enormous fuel for margin growth.

Andrew agreed with premise that business trends strengthen through Q1. January business up high single digits YoY, nearly 20% vs 2 years ago. February/March comps get easier as 2025 demand dropped sharply after mid-January.

Andrew said United Next hub buildout completes late 2026/early 2027. After that, broader look beyond 7 hubs, but any new flying must pass margin-accretive test. Still under-gauged domestically.

Andrew declined to share Chase contract details but emphasized distinction between loyalty vs reward programs. Only 2-4 true loyalty programs exist in US. More announcements to come on consumer-facing differentiation.

Andrew acknowledged higher basic economy penetration expected in Q3 due to weaker demand environment creating more open RM systems, not unique to United.

Scott reaffirmed the structural supply thesis while acknowledging demand inflected down for first 6 months. Noted dispersion of results increasingly favoring 2 brand-loyal airlines.

Mike explained guidance relies on stable bookings, burned contingency, excellent cost management, 20-cent lower 2H fuel, and profit-maximizing capacity cuts.

Scott framed competitive dynamics as a byproduct of serving United customers well, not a deliberate strategy to harm competitors.

Andrew Nocella affirmed Basic Economy remains effective and no strategy change planned for 2025.

Andrew confirmed 2025 is a gauge pause year but gauge acceleration returns in 2026+ with meaningful margin tailwind.

Capuano said the Middle East construction issue is not spilling into Asia; APEC and China signings remain strong, with a new China collection brand expected to add about 100 hotels.

Jen detailed raised U.S./Canada expectations at high end of global guidance. Expects stronger H1 vs H2 due to World Cup in Q2/Q3 and midterm election impact in Q4. China raised to low single digits.

Leeny clarified not a revenue recognition change, it's an increased share of credit card company payments allocated as royalty for Marriott's licensed IP. Owned/leased impacted by large hotel renovations, partly offset by Barbados returning.

Tony highlighted dual issuer gives access to two complementary customer bases, broad market coverage, and unique cardholder choices. Also enables greater trial and point transfer opportunities.

Tony described the Marriott Media Network as connecting brands with travelers across digital and physical environments. Too early for economics, but interest at Cannes Lions launch exceeded expectations. Returns to be shared with owners.

Tony reported 2026 group pace up 7% with 4% rooms and 3% ADR. 2025 pace at 6% ever so slightly down from prior quarter but not meaningfully.

Tony emphasized continuing deliberate growth strategies throughout the economic cycle, viewing hotels as long-term assets managed through a long-term lens.

Leeny expects 2025 RevPAR to be more heavily ADR-weighted than 2024, with group leading at 6% pace, BT low single digits, leisure flat to slightly up.

Tony described benefits across associates (streamlined training), guests (enhanced capacity for engagement), and owners (revenue and expense opportunities). Rollout will take a number of quarters across the world.

Naf declined to guide Q4 explicitly but framed it as a roughly 200 basis point deployment and dry-dock headwind to Q3 that reverses as a tailwind in Q4.

Jason noted short product has reached mature scale so incremental close-in mix shift is moderating. AI-based yield management models now better predict close-in demand patterns. Michael described the 3-4 day CocoCay + Beach Club proposition as generating significant margins and accelerating new-to-cruise acquisition.

Jason reframed that shorter products naturally book closer-in rather than banking on close-in demand. Other products show normal strong patterns. Acknowledged close-in acceleration has historically beaten expectations but they try to bake patterns into forecasting.

Naftali confirmed Star impact mostly Q3, Q4 has Celebrity Xcel mid-November start plus favorable dry dock comparisons, combined 90bps headwind.

Jason previewed meaningful credit card integration with loyalty coming soon. Loyalty now drives 40% of bookings with members spending 25% more per trip.

Jason explained COVID-era net worth covenants constrain the buyback pace despite conviction, noting the $1B authorization is smoothed around covenant cushion timing.

Jason acknowledged value consideration has risen slightly in consumer priorities but credited the persistent value gap to land-based vacation as a structural buffer.

Jason emphasized the strategy is ecosystem retention using their 35M-person database and loyalty flywheel rather than competing for Viking's demographic.

Cost cadence follows drydock schedule with Q2/Q3 higher and Q4 benefiting from significant capacity growth. Costa Maya operating costs and Nassau ramp-up also factor in.

Scott confirmed April rebound was not full and Q2 guide incorporates further Middle East and macro uncertainty. On bundling, Ariane said no dramatic shift in customer behavior so far and rising airfares could make bundling more attractive.

Ariane noted no dramatic shift in behavior from rising airfares, and framed bundling as increasingly attractive to travelers when flight prices increase.

Ariane noted AI has made property onboarding 70% faster. On LLM direct threat, emphasized that Expedia's brand trust, value propositions, and B2B complexity mean 'the pie will expand' rather than disintermediation.

Ariane confirmed 2/3 direct mix from loyalty and organic return visitors. Scott added conversion in direct channels ticking up, good traffic in Q3 nicely ahead of Q1/Q2, team shifting to higher-returning channels.

Ariane highlighted focused market approach: 20%+ growth in Japan and Brazil, strong double digits in Northern Europe. Scott noted Q2 booking windows shortened but re-bookings pivoting into Q3.

Scott noted step-down in intra-US and inbound-US dynamics. Ariane added hotel booking windows slightly expanding but vacation rental windows declining, a mixed picture.

Ariane cited mid-teens room night growth in Western Europe for Brand Expedia, new Middle East POS doubled quarter-over-quarter. Taking surgical approach to international expansion.

Ariane described increasingly sophisticated approach to marketing/loyalty/promotional spend optimization by brand and geography. Noted multi-item buyers more likely to repeat.