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Analyst
Daniel Major
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 25on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 12%3 of 25 questions
- Companies
- 2questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 25 of 25 questions from 2 companies
NEMNewmont15 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 15 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
You previously indicated a $1 to $3 billion net cash range. You’re $400 million above that now.
Show response
CFO acknowledged the overage and confirmed buybacks are the flexible lever to return to the targeted net cash range.
can you just give us some color on the next steps in terms of guidance?
Show response
CEO committed to a February review but said the detail is still under development, offering interim exploration disclosure instead.
Calendar 2026 Q1
any idea on the magnitude of kind of increase relative to the previous CapEx estimates provided by Newcrest
Show response
CEO declined to provide a CapEx figure ahead of FID in H2 2026, citing a structured process and desire to give a credible, accountable estimate rather than a premature one.
Do you intend to reinstate medium-term guidance at some point in the future
Show response
CEO acknowledged investor demand for multi-year guidance and outlined key 2027 growth drivers (Lihir, Cadia caves, Boddington pushbacks, Ahafo North ramp-up) toward 6M ounces, confirming 2026 as the trough.
Calendar 2025 Q4
should we be reading that in terms of the commitment to the buyback that if you were to go above the threshold, so $1 billion plus or minus, you would -- we should assume in our models that 100% of...
Show response
Natascha confirmed the assumption is accurate, excess cash above the net cash threshold goes to buybacks on a ratable basis. Still $2.4B left on $6B program; Board approval needed for additional buyback.
If we look at those buckets, inventory change, working capital and volumes, would it be fair to assume those would reverse in the subsequent 1, 2 years?
Show response
Natascha walked through each driver: volume reversal from production growth, sustaining capital includes $150M shift from 2025, inventory changes from Penasquito stockpile treatment and Lihir/Yanacocha mining cycles. Emphasized CAS staying constant year-on-year as the key metric.
you've changed the sort of headline guidance from co-product to byproduct. So on a like-for-like basis, your $1,935 co-product guidance for AISC. First, is it -- what is the like-for-like for CAS a...
Show response
Natascha clarified they don't formally guide CAS but provided a directional number of approximately $1,430 per ounce.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Has there been any delays to that potential timeline with the incident last quarter?
Show response
Natascha confirmed Red Chris feasibility study on track for mid-2026 Board proposal. Investigation learnings being incorporated into the study. Longer-dated projects must earn their right for capital.
How do you see that going into 2026 if gold prices stay at this sort of level, would you look to build cash? Or would you look to accelerate the rate of buybacks
Show response
Natascha deflected to the capital allocation framework, saying they'll remain disciplined and review quarterly with the Board. Did not commit to accelerating buybacks despite near-zero net debt.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Any color on kind of any reversal and how that might impact free cash flow in 2H?
Show response
Tom outlined H2 FCF headwinds: higher sustaining capital, Yanacocha water treatment plant ramp (~$600M target), higher tax payments from gold prices. Deferred payments from Discovery (~$150M over 4 years from 2027) and Greatland (~$100M contingent).
whether that's a precursor to any other management changes. I wonder if you can make any comments on this and whether Karyn's departure impacts any other potential thinking
Show response
Tom framed Natascha's promotion as natural leadership development that Newmont has done for generations. No concern about finance team strength. Excited about next CFO hire opportunity.
Calendar 2025 Q1
could we expect buybacks to significantly exceed the divestment proceeds this year if the gold price stays at this sort of level?
Show response
Karyn confirmed no change to financial policies, after $3B cash target, debt, and dividend, excess free cash flow will be returned via buyback.
is it still optimal? Is there anything else in the portfolio you think could be monetized?
Show response
Tom deflected by noting they've only had the go-forward portfolio for seven days. Focus is on proving up emerging Tier 1 assets before considering further rationalization.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you would be above that towards the end of the sort of three- to five-year period. Is that the wrong assumption?
Show response
Tom confirmed production will exceed 6M oz in coming years driven by laybacks and projects, but will ebb and flow over decades. Emphasized margin focus over volume chasing.
Why are they so high in 2025? My feeling would be that a lot of the costs associated with the divestments and the integration would be done
Show response
Tom acknowledged G&A is unacceptably high, still carrying costs of 5 divesting assets and system integration. Expects glide path down as assets leave portfolio.
FCXFreeport-McMoRan10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
You previously guided to a target of $2.50 per pound operating costs in 2027. That still a valid estimate?
Show response
Reaffirmed the $2.50 target as achievable long term but conceded current energy and acid markets put it out of reach for 2027.
Calendar 2026 Q1
What is the CapEx associated with these modifications? And there's been no change to group CapEx guidance?
Show response
Quirk confirmed the modification CapEx is $60-70 million, offset by timing variances within the existing plan. Not a major cost driver given the production value it unlocks.
It doesn't look like there's been any significant change in the ratio of wet to dry in PB 1S or in the other sections
Show response
Quirk confirmed the analysis focused on PB 2 and 3; PB 1S preparations continue for mid-2027 restart. The 2026-2028 production plan is largely driven by PB 2 and 3 ramp-up.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Could you give us any guidance around working capital for the Q3 given the changes in shipment timings out of Indonesia?
Show response
Quirk confirmed Q3 working capital use reverses in Q4 with no material net requirement for full year 2025.
any of the volumes are contractually committed from either the existing or the new smelter over the next 12 months
Show response
Quirk said near-term plans are to sell in Asia and domestically in Indonesia. No long-term commitments prevent redirecting flows if economics warrant.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you give us a sense of what those impacts are? I think you mentioned a 5% increase in the cost of purchased inputs
Show response
Quirk detailed that 45% Chinese tariff is the biggest cost driver despite small dollar amounts. Working with suppliers to diversify sourcing and mitigate impacts.
What proportion of the cost base is exposed to energy, particularly oil? Obviously, we are seeing some benefit there
Show response
Quirk confirmed diesel benefit of ~20 cents/gal vs forecast on 100M gallons in North America. Electricity seeing slight upward pressure.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Is there any insurance coverage for the additional work to fix the fire of the smelter?
Show response
Quirk confirmed $100M repair cost is fully covered by insurance with no increase to overall smelter project cost estimate.
Do you have a visibility on the timeline for when you'll be entering the similar process with the new government?
Show response
Quirk outlined prerequisites including smelter integration and 10% share sale agreement, targeting 2025 application.
Do you have any visibility on when the Senate will be reviewing the bill?
Show response
Quirk acknowledged no visibility on Senate timing but confirmed it is on the agenda for review.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| NEM Newmont | 15 | 13%2 of 15 questions |
| FCX Freeport-McMoRan | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q1 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q2 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2025 Q4 | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2026 Q2 | 3 | 67%2 of 3 questions | 2 |
- 2024 Q45 questions · challenge rate 20% (1 of 5 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q14 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q24 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2025 Q43 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 3 questions) · 1 company
- 2026 Q14 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2026 Q23 questions · challenge rate 67% (2 of 3 questions) · 2 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Cost Pressure7
- Capital Allocation6
- Margin4
- Capex Investment4
- Guidance Reliability3
- Supply Chain3
- Competitive Dynamics3
- Geographic Expansion2
- Regulation Policy2
- Innovation & R&D1
Show all 14 topics
- Trade Tariffs1
- Macroeconomic1
- M&A1
- Revenue Growth1