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Analyst

Dan Politzer

JPMorgan · covers Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters; questions recorded in 6).

Questions
57on tracked calls
Challenge rate
9%5 of 57 questions
Companies
8questioned at least once
Reporting periods
6with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 57 of 57 questions from 8 companies

WYNNWynn Resorts12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 12 challenging
WYNN company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

how do you think about that timing? And why is that the right time?

ChallengingGeographic ExpansionCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Politzer pressed on why September 2027 is the right opening date; management said it aligns with construction completion and operational handover.

how much of that do you attribute to kind of pent-up demand versus an event calendar?

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Politzer asked what drove the post-World Cup Macau uptick; management called it a return to normal cadence, noting World Cup and seasonality are hard to disentangle.

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you talk about what have you been doing differently over the past few months to ensure the project stays on track to the extent that it's within your control?

Geographic ExpansionMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Management emphasized team safety focus, 22K+ workers on site, construction continued throughout conflict. Supply chain showing flexibility with rerouting. Modest delay expected, word 'modest' used intentionally. Will quantify in coming months.

why now? Will this have a gaming element? How do you think about disruption or potential returns on that $900 million to $950 million investment?

Capex InvestmentRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Running at 99% occupancy makes this non-speculative. Conservative $2,500 theo per room night yields ~$400M incremental GGR. No gaming element, minimal F&B since attached to existing Palace. High flow-through: $150-175M EBITDA. Construction disruption limited to east entrance area.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Is there any kind of parameters to which you think about the OpEx growth in Vegas as well as Macau for 2026?

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Julie confirmed Vegas OpEx outlook unchanged at $4.3-4.5M/day ex-events. Q4 came in at $4.6M due to F1, Concour, NYE. Macau OpEx $2.7-2.9M/day range also maintained with Gourmet Pavilion and cost of living increases baked in.

how do you think about the path to growing in Vegas in 2026?

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Management confident in 2026 performance as long as group pace plays out. Gaming volumes healthy. Wynn Las Vegas 'absolutely crushing it' by historical standards. Brian confirmed key business indicators all positive, noting out-of-order rooms as main challenge.

Calendar 2025 Q3

given that it doesn't seem like there's competitors there, where does that maybe put you right now?

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Management noted primary variable between base and upside case is GGR market size and their share. With 100% share early on and sell-side estimates as high as $8B, base case has conservatism. Not ready to revise Investor Day numbers yet.

do you feel like the environment has improved as we've kind of moved out of the summer and you build in that group calendar? And then as you look out to '26, what is your expectation there for grow...

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Management confirmed summer softness was well-publicized, they reacted by prioritizing rate over occupancy. October momentum strong with group compression helping. Brian added team focused on yielding ADR over peaks, resulting in record August.

Calendar 2025 Q2

How much of this outperformance do you attribute to positioning at the high end of the market

Competitive DynamicsDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Management attributed outperformance to combination of luxury positioning, 3+ years of building improvements, gaming share gains (couple hundred bps), and disciplined operations.

What do you attribute that inflection to? Is that -- are you seeing a difference in terms of the actual fundamentals

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Management attributed Macau strength to combination of entertainment, broader market dynamics. July remained strong even after concert events ended. Declined to provide forward guidance beyond what they've seen.

Calendar 2024 Q4

is there a leverage threshold which, you know, to think about the amount of capital you would allocate here.

Capital AllocationCreditTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management said leverage levels are very comfortable, fixed coupons provide incremental comfort, and they will continue supporting stock while conditions persist.

relative to three or six months ago, what what do you feel like has fundamentally changed, if anything?

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management attributed continued strength to investments over past three years in marketing, technology, service delivery, F&B, and entertainment rather than any fundamental market change.

LVSLas Vegas Sands11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
LVS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

do you feel like you’re at a place where you the property maybe reverts back to historical seasonality?

Show response

Management framed the step-up as the suite conversion and service upgrade, with future growth coming from yielding higher-value patrons.

Calendar 2026 Q1

in terms of the market growth that you have to get there, I mean, how -- at what level do you have to see the overall market or mass grow

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Patrick said $700M is achievable with some market growth combined with execution on service and hospitality. Grant noted 14% market growth this quarter with LVS outperforming in every segment.

you had $18 billion of rolling ships in the quarter. I mean I guess, how do you think about what's driving this

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Patrick cautioned that VIP quarters can be highly concentrated and vary. IR2 will provide more product to address the high-end market. Mass win remains the primary profitability driver.

Calendar 2025 Q4

the VIP rolling chip volume acceleration was notable. You saw obviously an acceleration across the board on the gaming side. I mean, where -- what particularly is driving that

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Rob characterized it as more of the same, great product and deep Asian customer base. Patrick noted no OpEx changes needed, just continued service improvement.

On a hold-adjusted basis, EBITDA margin is down quarter-over-quarter. I mean, how much of this is just the OpEx environment

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Grant attributed the decline to three factors: segment mix shift to premium/rolling, higher OpEx from events (NBA) and payroll for expanded table hours, and lower non-rolling hold by 140bps.

Calendar 2025 Q3

is there any impetus or desire or potential to raise the mass hold because that one has been going up, too

Innovation & R&DRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Patrick explained smart tables aren't yet deployed across the full mass floor due to game mix complexity, and mass hold isn't normalized the same way as rolling.

Can you kind of talk about that path back to $2.7 billion, $2.8 billion of EBITDA that you kind of laid out is maybe a soft target last quarter

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Rob said market growth is essential, estimated Macao GGR could reach $33-34B next year. Grant noted the company is outgrowing the market for the first time in mass GGR.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Is there any way to kind of wrap our heads around that sudden acceleration in those gaming volumes

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Patrick attributed acceleration to completed renovation, new customers attracted by improved product, and growing Southeast Asian wealth creation driving business and leisure tourism.

Is there a targeted EBITDA share that we should think about that kind of gets you to where you want to be

Competitive DynamicsRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Rob laid out a detailed property-level EBITDA roadmap totaling $2.7B, acknowledging the current $2.2-2.3B pace is underperforming.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Last couple quarters, it looks like mass volumes have slowed a bit there. Can you maybe talk about a little bit what's going on with that property

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Patrick attributed the slowdown to the 25th anniversary disruption impacting base mass in the second half of Q4, calling it not representative of the forward run rate.

How do you think about I guess the return on this? Is this consistent with some of your other properties in the mid-19s

Capex InvestmentMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Patrick framed Londoner as a 30-year asset with very high return potential, noting the pre-pandemic $1.1B EBITDA run rate and structural advantages that are not replicable.

MGMMGM Resorts11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 11 challenging
MGM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

I wanted to first start with Las Vegas and the health in the underlying market there.

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Hornbuckle gave the month-by-month cadence: April and May strong on events, June more challenged on summer heat, July good. Said they like Q3 but have work to do in Q4.

So how do you think about the current value of your stock here and the attractiveness

Capital AllocationCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Halkyard confirmed the repurchase price and called it a good use of capital, but declined to update the sum-of-the-parts valuation beyond saying the view has not changed.

Calendar 2026 Q1

Can you maybe talk about the first quarter kind of progressed and how you kind of saw that resonate in your customer base?

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Bill said each month got successively better with March the best. Half of Spirit's lost capacity recovered. No slowdown seen despite headwinds. April is fine with successful Baccarat Tournament. May looks good. Short booking cycles make summer uncertain.

is this something just to think about more commonly that this could be impacting results and bearing in mind it does sound onetime in nature?

Show response

Jonathan said historically done annually but decided to do it twice this year. Expects accrual is adequate. Characterized as unusual onetime item. Results would have been much better on operating basis without the charge.

Calendar 2025 Q4

other than the second half comparisons getting easier, I guess, how do you think about the path forward in terms of the first quarter and second quarter in terms of getting back to normalized EBITD...

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Bill cited CON/AGG return, stabilized occupancy, strong high-end luxury gaming (second-highest holiday gift shop ever), and full MGM Grand rooms online. Ayesha added Super Bowl driving excitement among meaningful customer base. Convention authority expecting 1 million more visitors.

were there any other one-offs in particular in the fourth quarter, either in Las Vegas or any of the other segments you would call out just for modeling purposes?

Show response

Jonathan quantified hold benefit at approximately $20 million in Las Vegas. Unusual corporate expenses in Q4 and Q1 of prior year should not recur. Normalized corporate expense run rate around $110-115 million per quarter.

Calendar 2025 Q3

can you just talk about the appetite for a more diversified cash flow stream as you think about the things that you're seeing in your portfolio now?

M&ACapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Bill said diversification key with combined digital businesses doing $3.5B revenue next year. Jonathan noted MGM China, BetMGM, and Digital growing at high rates making company more diversified. High bar for regional M&A - must be market-leading scale and brand-consistent.

Have you seen maybe a widening in the performance between these segments of your portfolio? And if so, kind of what are the adjustments or levers you can make going forward

Show response

Bill confirmed widening gap. Luxury properties maintaining rates and ADRs. Lost 400K airline seats from Spirit bankruptcy affecting value traveler. Southern California drive traffic down, Canadian inbound down. Corey added Bellagio shows no impact while Luxor/Excalibur have biggest challenges occupying midweek.

Calendar 2025 Q2

if I think about the $25 million from MGM Grand disruption and then you're lapping a $37 million impact from insurance

Show response

Jonathan said Q3 will be similar to June trends with value-property and MGM Grand impacts. Intentionally accelerating remodel to position well for Q4 with F1 and holiday season.

is there anything you can kind of pinpoint and what's driving this decline in visitation?

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Bill cited international inbound down 6% (Spirit engines), Southern California quiet, Canadian decline. Luxury still strong but value segment needs attention. Corey noted casino database, Marriott, and business travel as key levers.

Calendar 2024 Q4

you took a lot of slot share in the quarter, but your rate of promotions was up a tad. Are there any changes in your strategy or the promotional environment

ChallengingCompetitive DynamicsPricingTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Jonathan dismissed concerns about promotional strategy changes. Promotional increase was not meaningful.

DKNGDraftKings Inc.6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
DKNG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

how do you think about the competitive environment, the promotional environment as you go forward

ChallengingCompetitive DynamicsMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Robins downplayed the peer's promo step-up as a blip, saying DraftKings stays efficient while growing handle and GGR share.

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you kind of bridge us in how you think about some of those moving pieces for the second quarter

MarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Robins cited strong core momentum (April revenue +22%, 15 straight weeks of net-revenue growth) and rising Predictions investment into the back half.

Calendar 2025 Q4

why are you so much more aggressively leaning into prediction markets now?

Regulation PolicyCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Robins credited a supportive CFTC posture plus strong early numbers, and said much of the needed pricing/marketing infrastructure already exists.

Calendar 2025 Q3

can you talk about the conversations that you've had with regulators and shed light on why you feel comfortable proceeding here when certainly some of your larger peers have not.

Regulation PolicyCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Robins said strong regulator relationships and a focus on non-OSB states, where the predictions opportunity is largest, gave the company comfort.

Calendar 2025 Q2

structural hold accelerated 100 basis points in the quarter. Is there anything specifically you thought that's driving that?

Show response

Robins attributed the acceleration to parlay mix (up 430bps) and noted ~$200M of 2026 tax headwinds partly offset by outperforming drivers.

Calendar 2024 Q4

how do you think about the power of your brand right now for both Sports and iGaming.

Competitive DynamicsDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Robins said the multi-brand model (Golden Nugget) is proven in iGaming but less so in sports, where DraftKings stays the primary focus.

HLTHilton Worldwide6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
HLT company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Can you talk about what underlies that confidence in line of sight over the course of the next 18 months?

ChallengingDemandMacroeconomicGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Nassetta decomposed the quarter into run-rate versus World Cup and comp benefits, landing on a 2% to 2.5% underlying baseline he expects to exceed in 2027.

Calendar 2026 Q1

Can you just remind us what the exposure in terms of EBITDA or fees across your businesses there

MacroeconomicDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Nassetta quantified Middle East as 3% of business, Q2 impact potentially 1.5 points on System-wide RevPAR. Limited knock-on effects seen so far, slight softness in Bangalore and Maldives.

Calendar 2025 Q4

how close are you to maybe announcing some partnerships there, if that's on the horizon

Cloud & AICompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Nassetta confirmed working with OpenAI, Google and other major AI players on distribution connectivity. Described three AI buckets: efficiency, distribution, and customer experience. Natural search-to-booking features expected in own platforms by Q2.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you maybe parse that out as we think about going forward between your expectations for conversions next year versus some of the newer brands that you've launched

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Jacobs attributed NUG acceleration to broad-based post-COVID development cycle recovery; nearly 40% from conversions, new development starts up 20%+, and core brand export to emerging markets. Mid-30s% conversion mix expected for next couple years.

Calendar 2025 Q2

I guess what's driving the reinforced confidence there? Has there been a pivot in the conversations that you've had in the development community

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Nassetta cited strong conversion brands (with 2+ more coming by year-end), construction starts up 16-17%, record pipeline with half under construction, and favorable brand performance from ownership community.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Guys called out the strong occupancy trends particularly in December. Was that mostly in U.S.? Was it international

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Nassetta said Q4 leisure strength was broad-based globally driven by favorable holiday calendar; Q1 Easter shift is a net positive, adding ~50bps to guidance.

MARMarriott International5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
MAR company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

I wanted to touch on the investment spend. I think it ticked up a few hundred million

Capex InvestmentCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Capuano said key money is the competitive weapon of choice but Marriott uses less per deal; Mason said DTT is early with over 2,000 select-service hotels transitioned.

Calendar 2026 Q1

you mentioned that select service really seemed to start to inflect in the first quarter

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Tony cited domestic travel pivot, drive-to destination shift from rising fuel prices, and consumer prioritization of experiences. Jen added tax refund boost and low U.S. supply growth.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Can you maybe talk about why now, why were you able to kind of increase the royalty rate, what drove that, any order of magnitude on that rate?

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Tony cited three factors: contractual modification, preserving Bonvoy financial strength, and preserving 271M member value proposition. Leeny noted efficiency work helped balance all constituency needs.

Calendar 2025 Q3

maybe you can unpack that a bit in terms of what you're seeing across leisure, business transient and group for next year?

Revenue GrowthGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Leeny expects 2026 similar to 2025 globally. U.S. slightly higher helped by World Cup (+30-35bps globally). Group pace up 7% globally and 8% in U.S. Leisure expected to continue outperforming at upper chain scales.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Can you maybe unpack that a little bit in terms of what you're seeing in terms of lead volumes versus some of the deferrals possibly?

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Tony said 2026 group pace ticked up 100bps to 8%. No above-normal cancellations. Q2 group softness was roughly half from attrition and half from weaker in-quarter bookings.

Show 2 more companies
HSTHost Hotels & Resorts4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 4 challenging
HST company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

I think you guys mentioned third quarter would be a little bit softer or maybe the weakest quarter of the year

Show response

Sourav: July RevPAR +10% pulls Q3 close to Q4; August seasonally weak, September group pace improved to positive low single digits; only 3pts of July's 10% was World Cup. Direct.

Calendar 2026 Q1

what's the level of confidence in getting that $120 million for the year

ChallengingDemandGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Sourav clarified the storm impact was portfolio-level, not Maui-specific, and cited rebookings and group pace; direct.

Calendar 2025 Q4

is there some element of conservatism in there as we think about the path getting back to $160 million? And what are the puts and takes to that 2026 outlook

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Ghosh broke down Maui by property: Fairmont Kea Lani reached $49M EBITDA high watermark, Andaz also nearing recovery. Hyatt Regency Ka'anapali growing from $28M to ~$34M. Acknowledged potential upside as group pace builds but comfortable with $120M starting point.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Is there any more detail in terms of like lead volumes, corporate versus association? And then are you seeing actual changes in terms of the spending patterns from these groups

Show response

Ghosh confirmed weakness concentrated in government-funded association groups. Groups that do show up are spending well, banquet and catering contribution per group room night up 7% despite absolute group room night declines. Momentum consistent from Q1.

NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
NCLH company page →

Calendar 2024 Q4

there's obviously been some headlines lately from the current administration on taxation of the cruise industry

Show response

Sommer declined to quantify tax exposure, calling the matter complex, but pivoted to potential Middle East/Ukraine peace tailwinds for 2026.

How would you classify demand there versus Caribbean given seemingly different supply and demand dynamics

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Sommer clarified Europe/Alaska are emphasized due to >50% summer deployment share; Caribbean's small Q3 share means it wasn't highlighted, not that it's weak.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
WYNN Wynn Resorts128%1 of 12 questions
LVS Las Vegas Sands110%none of 11 questions
MGM MGM Resorts119%1 of 11 questions
DKNG DraftKings Inc.617%1 of 6 questions
HLT Hilton Worldwide617%1 of 6 questions
MAR Marriott International50%none of 5 questions
HST Host Hotels & Resorts425%1 of 4 questions
NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • WYNN
    Wynn Resorts · 12 questions
    8%1 of 12 questions
  • LVS
    Las Vegas Sands · 11 questions
    0%none of 11 questions
  • MGM
    MGM Resorts · 11 questions
    9%1 of 11 questions
  • DKNG
    DraftKings Inc. · 6 questions
    17%1 of 6 questions
  • HLT
    Hilton Worldwide · 6 questions
    17%1 of 6 questions
  • MAR
    Marriott International · 5 questions
    0%none of 5 questions
  • HST
    Host Hotels & Resorts · 4 questions
    25%1 of 4 questions
  • NCLH
    Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q4911%1 of 9 questions6
2025 Q1No questions recorded——
2025 Q2100%none of 10 questions7
2025 Q390%none of 9 questions6
2025 Q4100%none of 10 questions7
2026 Q11010%1 of 10 questions7
2026 Q2933%3 of 9 questions7
  1. 2024 Q49 questions · challenge rate 11% (1 of 9 questions) · 6 companies
  2. 2025 Q1No questions recorded
  3. 2025 Q210 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 10 questions) · 7 companies
  4. 2025 Q39 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 6 companies
  5. 2025 Q410 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 10 questions) · 7 companies
  6. 2026 Q110 questions · challenge rate 10% (1 of 10 questions) · 7 companies
  7. 2026 Q29 questions · challenge rate 33% (3 of 9 questions) · 7 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Demand28
  • Revenue Growth22
  • Competitive Dynamics14
  • Macroeconomic7
  • Margin6
  • Capex Investment6
  • Geographic Expansion6
  • Guidance Reliability4
  • Capital Allocation4
  • Regulation Policy3
Show all 16 topics
  • Cost Pressure2
  • Pricing2
  • Cloud & AI1
  • Innovation & R&D1
  • M&A1
  • Credit1