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Analyst
Heather Jones
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q3 (9 quarters).
- Questions
- 52on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 19%10 of 52 questions
- Companies
- 4questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 9with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 52 of 52 questions from 4 companies
TSNTyson Foods16 questions · 8 reporting periods · 3 of 16 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
is there potentially any large-scale M&A that could be on the table given how strong the balance sheet is now?
Show response
Calaway reiterated financial strength as the first priority, noted repurchases and dividends, but did not commit to large M&A, citing organic investment opportunities.
the industry grew volumes like 4.7%, but y’all’s volumes were only up 1%. I’m just trying to reconcile disparity there
Show response
King explained Tyson matches supply to demand and is growing branded and value-added products nearly four times faster than overall chicken sales.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is it fair to think that Tyson is best positioned from a cost perspective?
Show response
King argued Tyson is differentiated from commodity peers and undervalued, valuing genetics at roughly $9-$10 a share, but did not directly confirm best cost position.
Is there a scenario where it would be reasonable to think we could have year-on-year growth in Q4
Show response
King guided to back half as good as or better than first half, trending toward the upper end of raised Chicken guidance; Calaway framed it as a roughly balanced 52/48 split.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I was wondering, would it be an issue if y'all forward bought more of your cattle or forward sold
Show response
Devin could not comment on specific benchmarks but reiterated the Q1 drivers: cattle costs, freight impacts from regional cattle movement, and quarter-to-quarter differences in basis and derivatives; emphasized Tyson uses different metrics to risk manage the business depending on circumstances.
how much of your confidence in the full year is related to either thinking that supply and demand is gonna be more balanced for the full year
Show response
Donnie attributed confidence primarily to execution; cited USDA ERS projection that by 2030 50% of animal protein consumption will come from chicken; emphasized supply-demand fundamentals are good and Tyson's position as number one brand in chicken.
Calendar 2025 Q3
it sounds like based on your comments that you all's guidance assumes more than normal seasonal improvement in pricing
Show response
Donnie confirmed assumptions generally correct; cited chicken as most affordable protein, September supply aberration, physical supply limitations, and potential demand tightness; expressed confidence based on end-to-end execution quality.
given the volatility that we've -- I mean, pretty extreme volatility that we've seen in the cattle futures recently, I was wondering if we should think about the seasonality of Q1 any differently t...
Show response
Donnie noted good retail demand in Q1 FY2026, good regional cattle supply, and performance very much in line with guidance; acknowledged New World screwworm border closure impact is significant, particularly for one plant in the region.
Calendar 2025 Q2
given the tariffs that's been imposed on Brazilian beef and those flows slowed in anticipation of this, I've been a little surprised that we haven't seen more of a reaction in pricing
Show response
Brady explained timing lag between tariff imposition and retail impact; also noted significant fat trim price inflation creating additional dynamics in the beef complex.
I have noticed a pretty sizable step-up in the amount of cattle that you have hedged. Wondering if -- I assume that was because your guidance was better than I was expecting given the backdrop
Show response
Brady described hedging as part of holistic integrated strategy rather than confirming it as a new specific approach or quantifying Q4 coverage; did not directly address the step-up observation.
Calendar 2025 Q1
if I remember correctly, I don't think your initial guidance included an impact from tariffs and it now does. So is it fair to assume that if those are resolved relatively quickly, there's potentia...
Show response
Curt corrected the premise, noting that tariff impacts were already included in guidance ranges from the prior quarter, not newly added. Implicitly pushed back on upside thesis.
given your move to feeder plants and just the inherent advantage that gives you relative to your peers, are you also planning on investing more in the pricing side to protect and gain share
Show response
Donnie addressed dark meat (95% sold domestically), value-added conversion journey, and comfort with $1-1.3B range considering brand investment and uncertainties. Curt framed the math: $680M front half, high-end implies $620M back half, providing concrete reconciliation of the $100M investment impact.
Calendar 2024 Q4
if you could just flush that out of how you're thinking about the net impact on Tyson
Show response
Donnie detailed exposure by protein (pork to Mexico, chicken leg quarters/MSC, small chicken volume to Canada) and confirmed risk is adjusted in raised guidance.
if you could just outline the things that you're wanting investors to most take away from the call today
Show response
Donnie provided five key takeaways covering all segments, leverage improvement, and tariff risk management in raised guidance.
Calendar 2024 Q3
How much of that is, things that [TyChic] [ph] in control as far as cost savings, more productivity, and how much is it you're assuming as far as the overall market dynamics
Show response
Wes quantified $500-700M in structural improvements independent of market conditions, providing clear framework for sustainable earnings.
is there a possibility that retailers start promoting beef more at the expense of chicken in 2025
Show response
Brady addressed cross-protein dynamics with data on cutout trends and retailer strategies. Wes added that Danville plant is sold out and next facility being planned.
BGBunge Global14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I was just trying to reconcile the performance with what we saw in industry margins.
Show response
Neppl pushed back on the premise and offered a plausible cause in Brazilian origination volume inflating the denominator, then took it offline.
I know there's been a lot of headlines around Super El Nino. It seems like the probability of that continues to grow.
Show response
Heckman gave a region-by-region walk covering Australia, Brazil, palm supply risk and Argentina, framing supply shocks as favorable to the platform.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is that on both oil and meal? Because I would think with the RVO visibility that on the oil side, they would be.
Show response
Heckman confirmed both oil and meal customers not engaging forward. Noted US soy curves up vs prior forecast (biggest driver), North America canola up on RVO clarity and ample supply, Europe/Black Sea awaiting new sun crop.
just wondering if you could give us your view of what is primarily driving that?
Show response
Heckman attributed strong meal demand to meat sector profitability and consumer protein preference. Noted soybean meal is competitive as animal feed, beef prices high, and pork/poultry very competitive, suggesting sustainable demand.
Calendar 2025 Q4
did you just take the curves and then make adjustments for what you're seeing as far as basis, etcetera, or just want to clarify that.
Show response
Heckman confirmed consistent methodology using forward curves without RVO assumptions. Added they hope for clarity ahead of March 10 Investor Day.
Do you envision a scenario where crush margins, both soft and soy, could replicate what we saw on the 2022-2023 time frame?
Show response
Heckman outlined constructive biofuel policies globally (Brazil B-15/B-16, Indonesia, Germany RED III, US) and strong protein/meal demand. Neppl added no major global disruption in a while but weather event could change dynamics.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how are you all thinking about what the margin structure would look like relative to what we witnessed in '22, '23?
Show response
Heckman acknowledged 2022-23 was a 'perfect storm' and current levels are near cycle bottom. Provided specific catalysts (biofuel policy, China program, big crops) while noting the machine is built to perform in any environment.
do you have like a really rough breakout of how much was just better execution by the team relative to a year ago? And how much was a better industry backdrop for those operations for what we saw i...
Show response
Neppl acknowledged Viterra underperformed expectations pre-close but noted significant improvement and meaningful contribution in Q3. Did not provide specific breakout between execution and market improvement.
Calendar 2025 Q2
do you think this is going to set up a situation in which refining margins could potentially go to 0 in the U.S.?
Show response
CEO said refining margins will tighten but some value shifts to crush margins from crude demand. CFO noted refined oil going to energy has been insignificant recently; food demand remains solid.
how do you think about the normalized range for soy and soft crush margins given that crude oil demand is going to surge
Show response
CEO expressed encouragement on setup: big crops, good meal demand, constructive RVO, Brazil B15. Deferred specifics but emphasized combined global crush footprint advantage.
Calendar 2025 Q1
the 5.25 billion gallon D4 headline number that's been in media reports, et cetera, that it may not be that high, that it may be more in the mid-4s
Show response
CEO pivoted to industry coalition advocacy rather than specifying volume expectations. Emphasized unused capacity across the supply chain and continued engagement.
how are you thinking about how that impacts Brazilian crush – Brazilian crush margins and could that potentially – if those dynamics don't shift quickly, could that potentially affect
Show response
CEO emphasized BG's balanced global footprint allows flexing between crush and export across regions. CFO noted three activities per origin (storage, export, processing) provide flexibility.
Calendar 2024 Q4
broadly, how are you thinking about that acquisition now versus, you know, maybe a year ago?
Show response
Management acknowledged near-term challenges but emphasized long-term value and global positioning to handle trade flow disruptions.
given the fact that you expect South America to be better this year as far as on take-or-pay and Argentina, just wondering what is the offset
Show response
Management cited more balanced global S&D, lower ocean freight, and potential for farmers and consumers to be more hand-to-mouth in uncertain times.
HRLHormel Foods12 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
wondering if you're able to just broadly quantify the volume impact of that legal entity change
Show response
Paul declined to give specifics but confirmed the SPAM legal-entity change drove the majority of the International tonnage decline.
Calendar 2026 Q2
I first wanted to ask about the Turkey network manufacturing changes you made.
Show response
Kuehneman cited weather, volume throughput, and feed-conversion benefits, but cautioned turkey performance can be cyclical and hard to predict.
Calendar 2026 Q1
If you could give us a sense of how much of the volume decline in retail was related to this snack nuts exit
Show response
John outlined three buckets: (1) private label snack nuts exit, (2) acute softness on businesses including SKIPPY, (3) pricing elasticities across portfolio. Priority brands showing volume growth in several spots (Planters, Gatherings, Applegate, Mexican). Expects modest volume declines for Retail full year from nuts exit and pricing elasticities.
the opportunity to return to the margin levels we saw in the past? Are there any structural changes that are going to limit that ability?
Show response
John pointed to CAGNY framework: pivoting brands into consumer opportunity spaces, modernizing capabilities (data, technology, analytics, e-commerce), driving priority brands with strategic advantage and strong margins. Expressed confidence in outlook to drive profitable growth over time through consumer lens, financial lens, and capability investments.
Calendar 2025 Q4
just if you could give us a sense of how much the consumer environment factored into your outlook?
Show response
Jeff gave Q1 cadence: 2-4 cents below prior year from spillover effects, partial pricing, elevated costs, Turkey supply issues. Growth comes Q2-Q4 with Q4 strongest (lapping 3 cents of one-time incidents). John noted consumer is strained, expecting flat to low growth in foodservice industry. Portfolio positioned for value delivery across channels.
I was just wondering if you could give us a little more detail as far as, like, how you're thinking about the year-on-year decline in raw materials, particularly given how much bellies and trim hav...
Show response
Paul noted pork, shrimp, beef remain Q1 headwind YoY. Some YoY relief in bellies starting. Beef and nut headwinds full year. Improving pork benefits modeled for H2. Jeff added they're refining processes for greater agility in forecasting, coupling external forecasts with internal real-time knowledge.
Calendar 2025 Q2
a couple of your competitors have shuttered facilities. So I was wondering if you all are also seeing any share gains as yet? Or are those anticipated on the come?
Show response
Jim noted biggest competitor facility not yet shut down so full impact TBD; positioned to capitalize as opportunities arise. John added Jennie-O up over 4% in dollar consumption, consistent household penetration gains, with rising demand trends longer-term in nature.
do you believe we're close to a stabilization point and going to grow from here? Or how are you all thinking about that business or just pure volumes?
Show response
John explained 2/3 of volume decline from lower commodity shipments and contract manufacturing (mix favorable, net sales grew). Remaining drag from club channel promotional timing. Net sales flat with increased profitability. Confident in flagship/rising brands consumption momentum going forward.
Calendar 2025 Q1
that's a pretty substantial growth number, you know, for any packaged food company. So just would be curious to hear your thoughts
Show response
Jim cited T&M growth flywheel accelerating plus underlying value-added business growth. Declined to provide specifics, noting consistency with Q4 messaging.
are you assuming any benefit from the more positive commentary that we're hearing on whole bird pricing
Show response
Jacinth confirmed whole bird assumptions unchanged. Pricing actions are specific to the rest of the turkey complex, not whole birds.
Calendar 2024 Q4
it sounds like as part of the T&M initiative there could be further SKU rationalization
Show response
Jim confirmed SKU rationalization is embedded in guidance. Nathan added focus is on removing unprofitable SKUs to create room for profitable innovation.
just was curious as to your thoughts about taking steps on that side to do similarly to what you've done on the pork side
Show response
Jim outlined strategy to create demand-driven turkey business focused on value-added products like Lean Ground Turkey (#1 scanned item) and Foodservice integration.
ADMArcher Daniels Midland10 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
do you think Q2 is a high point for the year or could we have Q3 and Q4 look better than Q2?
Show response
Luciano addressed cadence directly, guiding Ag Services slightly lower in Q3 versus Q2, with Q4 depending on the export program build-out.
I was wondering if you could talk about the refining margin for veg oils backdrop and how
Show response
Patolawala partially answered, attributing Q2 RPO weakness to a negative mark-to-market and pointing to a constructive overall biofuels margin outlook.
Calendar 2026 Q1
it sounds like you raised the amount that you think will -- the 45Z will benefit earnings somewhat for the full year
Show response
Luciano noted multiple factors in 45Z calculation including carbon intensity scores, prevailing wage, sequestration volumes, and industry pricing reaction. Raised from $100M to $150M based on Q1 experience.
what are the things in your business that are giving you pause
Show response
Patolawala cited inverted futures curve, second-half risks including higher tax rate, increased R&D/digitization investment, and external uncertainties. Noted Q1 execution was strong and team is well-geared to capture opportunities.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I've followed you guys for over a decade, and just have been sort of puzzled by ADM's performance during '25. I particularly Q2, Q3, and Q4. Y'all's performance relative to public comps has been th...
Show response
CEO attributed the gap to higher manufacturing costs (energy, labor, contract services) in North America post-COVID rather than commercial or hedging changes. CFO added that the $500-750M cost-out program specifically targets manufacturing cost productivity.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just as we extrapolate forward, I know the hope is that we get a finalized RVO before the end of the year, but I think prudence would say it's probably coming in Q1
Show response
CFO indicated Q1 2026 margins currently booking flattish to Q4 2025, with any improvement dependent on timing of policy finalization.
in the U.S., real basis was pretty strong throughout Q3 and has been stronger than expected in early Q4. And just based on our data and anecdotal reports
Show response
Management explained they were largely booked before the rally, and noted farmers and customers are very reluctant to book long, creating hand-to-mouth dynamics.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I had a 2-part question on crush. And the first part was just a clarification. Wondering when you say if the replacement curve doesn't move up from here
Show response
Management outlined how RVO, Brazil B14-B15 mandates, and German double counting abolition create approximately 6 million tons of incremental feedstock demand.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I know there was a -- I think it was a $34 million year-on-year positive timing benefit. But even adjusted for that, given how weak the environment was
Show response
CFO acknowledged short-term strength but maintained full-year RPO will be significantly lower, citing extra refining capacity and biofuel policy headwinds.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I wanted to ask I -- good morning. Just wanted to first of all clarify that your guidance doesn't include any expected impact from tariffs
Show response
Management acknowledged uncertainty on tariff impact but highlighted ADM's global origination and destination marketing optionality as a differentiator.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| TSN Tyson Foods | 16 | 19%3 of 16 questions |
| BG Bunge Global | 14 | 21%3 of 14 questions |
| HRL Hormel Foods | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| ADM Archer Daniels Midland | 10 | 20%2 of 10 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q1 | 7 | 29%2 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q2 | 7 | 29%2 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 6 | 33%2 of 6 questions | 3 |
| 2025 Q4 | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q1 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | 7 | 29%2 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q3 | 1 | 0%none of 1 question | 1 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q47 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q17 questions · challenge rate 29% (2 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q27 questions · challenge rate 29% (2 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q36 questions · challenge rate 33% (2 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
- 2025 Q47 questions · challenge rate 14% (1 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q18 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q27 questions · challenge rate 29% (2 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q31 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Margin23
- Competitive Dynamics16
- Demand10
- Guidance Reliability9
- Pricing8
- Revenue Growth7
- Regulation Policy7
- Trade Tariffs6
- Cost Pressure5
- Supply Chain4
Show all 14 topics
- M&A3
- Macroeconomic3
- Geographic Expansion2
- Capital Allocation1