Jason Gabelman

Quantified the outage and the trend, with the caveat of no direct insight; concluded recovery takes longer rather than shorter.

Addressed the policy environment broadly and named Jones Act waivers, the RVO and small refinery exemptions, but did not engage on export quotas or bans.

Lane Riggs outlined investment framework: commercial leverage (reduce VGO dependency), reliability, yield improvements (FCC project), and ethanol growth tied to global demand.

Gary Simmons confirmed the back end of the crack curve is undervalued. High freight and backwardation are hindering necessary trade flows. Curve expected to roll up.

Lane attributed most of the sustaining CapEx decline to Benicia closure (one less refinery to maintain) plus some year-over-year timing differences, rather than signaling a step-change in mechanical availability.

Randy acknowledged uncertainty on sustainable levels but noted the factors pushing differentials wider (OPEC, Venezuela, Canada, freight enforcement on shadow fleet vessels) are unlikely to reverse through the year.

Gary noted effective targeting of high-complexity Russian capacity, with Russia ramping lower-complexity units as substitutes, and today's spike being geopolitical hype, not actual disruption.

Lane confirmed continued wholesale supply commitment post-closure, sourcing waterborne barrels from anywhere in the world for optionality rather than locking into pipeline commitments.

Gary noted re-engagement from Middle East crude suppliers after a period of limited U.S. purchases, signaling intent to direct OPEC volumes to the Gulf Coast.

Gary traced the diesel tightness to weak late-2024 margins limiting restocking, cold winter depleting inventory, refinery shutdowns, new capacity struggling, jet fuel prioritization, and lower renewable/biodiesel production.

Greg noted U.S. natural gas volatility has kept Valero on spot purchasing, while Pembroke operations remain unaffected by current European gas levels.

Rich Walsh confirmed Valero has foreign trade zones but said their applicability depends entirely on how tariff programs are structured.

Lane confirmed the $1.5B average baseline means the $1.6B implies above-average turnaround activity in 2025.

Rick explained Mid-Con performed per seasonal expectations in Jan-Feb, widened in March. Now tightest market with low inventories from unplanned maintenance and strong ag demand. West Coast still robust despite pullback.

CEO confirmed intent to renew MPLX contracts, citing inextricable relationship. CFO quantified derivative impact: $500M unrealized losses in Q1, $63M midstream, $340M margin call working capital impact.

CEO attributed overrun to El Paso project start plus minor inflation creep on LAR; 2026 guidance incorporates inflation expectations. No further inflation uptick anticipated.

CEO cited Maria's 25 years of operational excellence, cost competitiveness, and capital deployment experience; board involved in strategic decisions but CEO did not detail departure reasons.

Mike attributed higher spend to growth/reliability opportunities at LAR and GBR; CFO confirmed turnaround costs expected to decline in 2026 and beyond as COVID backlog clears.

Rick noted PNW-California spread dynamics shifted within the quarter; higher distribution costs reflect commercial decisions to go after higher margins. CFO noted per-barrel cost flat YoY.

Rick confirmed continued push east with new third-party pipeline expected early-to-mid Q4; Nashville and Gulf Coast markets being served; East Coast as incremental new market.

CFO explained targets unchanged; ethanol JV sale proceeds arrived post-quarter-end, and cash was back to ~$1B by end of July. No change to $7B gross debt or $1B cash targets.

CFO firmly stated no appetite for increasing debt to fund buybacks; will use revolvers for working capital management but remain committed to $7B long-term debt target.

CEO emphasized size-agnostic approach but strict capital discipline lens requiring mid-teens returns and support for mid-single-digit growth objective.

CFO confirmed $750M from September maturity is available for allocation; CEO said potential MPLX drops would not count against MPLX's mid-single-digit growth target.

CFO explained the change: post-Speedway era of outsized returns justified the disclosure, but as balance sheet normalized, one month's data was less useful.

Don pegged Midstream at roughly $1B/quarter with commodity/volume swings, cited record June Permian volumes, and reaffirmed the $4.5B-by-2027 EBITDA target.

Don attributed Q/Q decline to winter storm volume impact and noted proactive customer renewals at 10-year-plus terms validate the growth trajectory toward $4.5B by 2027 and beyond.

LPG windows mostly committed; Singapore team optimizing delivered time charter market. Mark noted Ferndale and Western Gateway are complementary, Northern vs Southern California, and RODEO renewable diesel asset running well.

Don confirmed H1 2026 fairly flat at ~$1B quarterly run rate incorporating contract renewals and fee escalations. Q4 OpEx step-up attributed to timing and seasonality. Cost efficiencies from refining blending into midstream operations through scale leverage.

Mark noted Ferndale gaining value as California capacity tightens. Bayway-Humber Atlantic Basin integration creates optimization opportunities. Core strategy is Central Corridor but coastal assets still create value.

Brian credited cost cuts, domestic feedstock logistics, Pacific Northwest product placement, new pathways, doubled SAF production, and European credit timing. Q4 margins improving with weaker soybean prices.

Mark confirmed ongoing evaluation of strategic alternatives with industry experts and board engagement. Nothing off the table but must create long-term value.

Mark said chemicals recovery view consistent: firming through 2026-2027 with European/Asian rationalization. Brian confirmed RD running at reduced rates with regulatory headwinds in 2026.

Brian attributed $100M sequential negative impact to Q3 inventory hedging reversal. Underlying volumes remained strong. Q1 expected to follow historical trend.

Mark said ongoing asset evaluation continues but no immediate closure candidates. Focus is on getting better, not bigger, in Refining.

Kim clarified only Western Gateway's cash contribution, not KMI's asset contributions, would count toward the $1B of new project additions.

Confirmed Western Gateway is not in the backlog. Projects only enter backlog after FID. Garthwaite expressed confidence in regulatory path forward based on experience in relevant states.

Dang dismissed the premise of lessons learned, stating they approached it the same as all other projects. No reflection on competitive positioning offered.

Kim said only 12% of shadow backlog is LNG-associated. Most shadow backlog is power-focused. Also noted incremental LNG projects don't require new facilities, existing facilities often seek further-reach competitive supply. Take-or-pay contracts of 20-25 years protect against utilization risk.

Kim cited Texas intrastate market, Eagle Ford and Haynesville gathering, and interstate markets especially in the Northeast. Function of tight pipeline/storage network creating volatility-driven upside from supply/demand dislocations.

Kim declined detail on competitive grounds but confirmed larger projects in the shadow backlog support LNG export and power themes.

Kim said M&A remains opportunistic, targeting fee-based energy infrastructure assets at appropriate risk-return within 3.5-4.5x debt/EBITDA range. Has capital or can find capital for deals. Recent track record includes Outrigger and prior-year acquisition but nothing large-scale.

Sital said Outrigger integration going well with network optimization underway. Highland Express customer discussions making progress but nothing to report this quarter.

Kim said no slowdown in LNG customer discussions. Builders continue announcing new projects and signing new contracts. Favorable US permitting environment and trade balance benefits supporting continued momentum. Tom added US market share is growing due to rule of law, advanced network infrastructure, developer track record, and abundant supply resources.

Bonner said debt recovery completes by early 2027 and JV production is targeted to grow up to 50% by end of 2028. Specific.

Bonner said affiliate distribution guidance raised by over $2B due to TCO at full rates, CPChem contributing, Angola LNG full. TCO now paying dividends monthly. Guidance at $60 Brent with upside.

Wirth explained consideration type is part of negotiation. Equity preferred for large deals to hedge commodity price risk over long close periods. Cash can work for smaller, faster deals. Bonner noted shift to debt-to-cash-flow metric aligning with rating agency standards.

CFO attributed outperformance to TCO. Guidance unchanged for Q4 due to planned TCO pit stop and cash conservation for two 2026 loan repayments. Clear explanation of moving parts.

Wirth noted original step-up guidance was from a different price environment and that 50%+ of deal shares already retired pre-close. Deferred updated guidance to November Investor Day.

Wirth defended through-cycle buyback approach over formulaic methods. CFO added Q2 guide of $2.5-3B projects $11-13B annual rate, still within $10-20B range. Emphasized steadfastness.

CFO confirmed TCO FCF guidance and explained drivers: production ramp, declining affiliate CapEx, and expected OpEx optimization at new 1M boe/d base.

Jen said Q3 will be a headwind versus Q2 as strong marketing benefits moderate and the portfolio stays below fee floors; higher Waha prices mainly benefit producers, supporting future activity.

Meloy described a balanced position: operating leverage on NGL transport once Speedway comes online, balanced frac capacity with Trains 11-13, and significant excess export capacity with LAP 4. Post-2027, downstream spend is ratable fracs only. Multiple medium-term flexible offloads bridge to Speedway.

Kneale noted $1.6B total cost with spending ramping: 2025 < 2026, with 2027 finishing up at roughly similar to 2025 levels. Did not break out costs by year specifically.

Kneale acknowledged perpetual competition but emphasized differentiation through sour gas capacity (2.5+ Bcf/d, 7 AGI wells), wellhead-to-water value proposition, 40+ interconnected plants, and continued commercial success adding to existing dedicated acreage.

Kneale expressed confidence in the Speedway budget, noting pipe was procured well ahead of the public announcement. Contingency is always included, and the team aims to deliver under budget.

Meloy emphasized long-term contract protection (10-15 year terms) and competitive positioning through scale, reliability, and integrated system. Competition has always existed.

Kneale noted volume growth materializing as expected, with potential tailwinds from commodity prices and marketing not baked into guidance. Q4 typically strongest for marketing.