Jeff Adelson

Wenzel tempered expectations on Pay Later's direct loan growth contribution given smaller ticket sizes against $100B+ receivable base. More important as penetration expansion tool and customer acquisition vehicle. Doubles declined to comment on individual partner programs but reiterated satisfaction across all partners. Pay Later included in mid-single-digit growth guide.

Wenzel clarified original actions around student loans and personal loans remain in place as good strategies. Q3-Q4 2025 changes were new strategies expanding credit aperture, not unwinding originals. No incremental broad-based changes assumed for 2026. Probability of default across credit grades still above historical norms, watching normalization across all credit grades, not just non-prime.

Doubles highlighted Pay Later now at Amazon, Lowe's, JCPenney, Bell, Sleep Number. Partners appreciate different financing needs for different purchases. Multi-product strategy resonating strongly in partner conversations and will continue rolling out across partner base.

Wenzel conducted two analyses: tracked revolvers who paid to zero (no material shift) and examined personal loan uptake among heavy revolvers (no payment behavior change pre/post). Application flow actually increasing. Installment lending not disintermediating their business.

Doubles expressed strong conviction: Pay Later now live at Amazon, Lowe's, JCPenney, Bell, Fleet Number. Multiproduct strategy allows offering right product for right customer and purchase type, capability that didn't exist 3-4 years ago. Will be meaningful growth driver going forward.

Wenzel clarified Walmart launch costs split equally Q3/Q4. Q2 had timing items: accelerated inflation bonus for nonexempt employees (moved from Q4) and mark-to-market on comp plans. Full-year other expenses up approximately 3%. Bigger H2 impact likely from reserves as holiday asset builds.

Doubles emphasized transparent partner communication, aligned interests through RSA, and joint decision-making on credit actions. Wenzel added context on second-highest purchase volume ever.

Doubles stated no PPPC changes planned despite positive litigation developments. Would evaluate collaboratively with partners considering behavioral data, competitive landscape, and RSA impact.

Squeri sees no AI displacement impact. Argued technology historically fuels GDP and creates new jobs. AXP's premium base spans diverse occupations beyond white-collar workers.

Squeri opposed the cap, arguing it would reduce cards, line sizes, and hurt small businesses, creating a downward spiral for consumer credit.

Squeri noted delinquencies at 1.3 and write-offs at 1.9 with a huge gap to competitors, no government shutdown impact, and short-term relief programs available.

Squeri cited priority access systems, expansion of existing lounges, satellite locations like Sidecar in Vegas, and close coordination with Delta.

Squeri said no issues, citing 15% US spend growth and 22% international. Le Caillec added average acquisition FICO of 750, though they spend about 20% less than older cohorts.

Squeri confirmed 35-50 refreshes planned but explicitly declined to preview specific products, telling analysts to wait and see.

Le Caillec noted metrics so strong they can only tick up modestly from seasoning of new vintages, but expressed comfort and hope to be proven wrong again.

Rich described Brex as having more connection points to Capital One's business model than any prior acquisition. Treasury management team sees opportunity to build on Brex's tech stack over time (longer-term benefit). Brex brings bottom-of-stack modern business tech platform that enables acceleration for lower-scale Capital One business activities.

Rich noted competitors raising fees while Capital One's Venture X fee unchanged since launch. Views it as both/and, lean into Venture X opportunity while building even greater premium experiences above it. Plans for multiple arrows in the quiver across different premium customer segments. Small business another area of overlapping investment and brand opportunity.

Rich provided clear timeline: pilot began June, majority by Q4 2025, all volume by early 2026. Framed direct merchant relationships as a key strategic benefit beyond interchange economics. Connected to broader Capital One Shopping and direct-to-merchant strategy with 100M+ customer franchise.

CEO said SoFi would step in for capped federal programs with higher-WACC in-school loans; CFO said LPB take-rate reflects excess investor demand.

CEO said awareness is the main growth lever for Invest; CFO said SoFi will be aggressive on crypto as regulation clarifies.