James Hardiman

Josh acknowledged Caribbean capacity pressure but pointed to Q3 yields up nicely and full-year normalized yields up almost 3%, reaffirming long-term commitment.

Josh confirmed a June inflection with July/August acceleration, attributing it to a normalization of headlines and vacations becoming sacrosanct for Americans.

Management deferred specifics on 2027 cost bridge, citing decisions yet to be made, but pointed to PROPEL cost discipline.

Weinstein enthusiastically welcomed competitors leaving Europe, citing P&O (UK #1), AIDA (Germany #1), and Costa as well-positioned with the right sourcing and deployment.

Weinstein attributed the Q1 yield gap to difficult comps, Caribbean capacity growth, and the continued impact of spring 2025 volatility on the booking curve.

Weinstein attributed pricing gains to broad-based execution improvement across brands, investment in advertising, revenue management systems, people, and the AIDA evolution template.

Bernstein clarified the booking comparison periods differed between quarters, with current commentary focused on 2026.

Weinstein said exposure is limited to a couple of Dubai-based ships, with no Red Sea or world cruise exposure through end of 2026.

Weinstein agreed that the team managed the yield curve without panic, continuing to prioritize pricing over volume.

Weinstein targeted mid-teens ROIC driven by commercial improvement, Celebration Key, Relax Away, AIDA evolution, and Alaska investments.

Weinstein reported no concerning signals in cancellations or other forward indicators.

Weinstein deferred specifics, noting they haven't been through wave season yet and will update in March.

Weinstein attributed yield gains to company-specific execution, noting same-ship yields up nearly 10% and citing the price-to-experience ratio gap vs land.

Cocks praised Marvel's start, reorders, and sell-through but declined to rank third-party IPs, noting Final Fantasy is still the biggest set.

Goetter confirmed high-30s/low-40s is structural range. 2025 over-delivered due to mix, leverage, and Q4 supply chain cost pickups. 2026 gives back via higher royalties and game launch prep costs, but foundation remains solid.

Goetter confirmed retail inventory ended down high single digits (right resting spot), no restocking tailwind expected. Growth driven by entertainment slate (4 Disney films). Cadence: Q1 down (licensing comp), Q2 up strong (tariff comp), H2 balanced.

Cocks noted retail inventories down mid-to-high teens entering Q4 but order book accelerating. Expects to cut deficit roughly in half by year-end. Goetter confirmed first quarter seeing actual restocking.

Cocks confirmed KPop includes MAGIC trading cards plus plush, games, electronics, role play. Goetter reiterated Wizards segment targeting high-30s/low-40s margin range over time.

Goetter confirmed DI/DOM shift was Q2-specific that normalizes in Q3/Q4 as Christmas approaches. Cocks added cautious optimism, consumer sentiment bouncing back but pricing still a black box for back half.

Goetter explained Q2 revenue loss viewed as sticky, plus deleverage effects flowing through back half. Retailers pushing holiday sets back further, affecting inventory flow assumptions.

Cocks reiterated 145%/10% base assumption. Noted under-indexed in Europe with market upside opportunities. Also pursuing ODMs in Vietnam/India for low-price-point expansion in emerging markets.

Goetter confirmed worst-case 145%/GFC assumptions in guidance. If scenario improves, guide would be higher, though some accelerated cost savings might be dialed back.

Goetter broke down the margin bridge: volume/mix net positive (~1pt), supply chain roughly flat (productivity offsetting tariffs/inflation), remaining accretion from below-the-line and managed expenses.

Goetter confirmed 2027 EBITDA should be at or above $1.4B range, suggesting the D&A step-up from video game depreciation will be offset.

Probed whether promotions flattered April retail and whether the quarter closed at normalized promo. Starrs said the heavier promotional activity ended in March and the overall quarter was normalized.

Starrs answered on portfolio accessibility and cited a historical 35,000 to 40,000 global Sportster market, but did not address category-level decline risk.

Starrs declined to split organic from new-model growth, saying only that a significant portion comes from the two new bikes.

Root quantified the tariff headwind and named production-below-wholesale deleverage and supply chain costs as the other offsets to volume.

Zeitz asserted confidence in the margin but explicitly declined to explain how the engineering economics were achieved.

Zeitz sized the China piece explicitly and addressed Europe, sourcing mix and anti-American sentiment in turn.

Zeitz volunteered April retail trends, which he normally withholds, and framed the withdrawal as tariff-driven rather than demand collapse.

Root walked the bridge off 6.7%: flat volume, favorable pricing, negative FX and mix, less manufacturing unfavorability, and OpEx favorability.

CEO insisted it is a marketing problem, not a product problem, and that the cost actions do not touch product.

CEO expressed optimism that 2027 improves but declined to promise a full recovery, citing the team build-out and revenue-management refinement still underway.

Kempa pointed to Q4 as the inflection point when full GSC amenities plus waterpark drive turnaround, with about a third of passengers touching the island.

Kempa attributed underperformance to self-inflicted wounds rather than consumer weakness, noting luxury brands continue very strong while Norwegian brand needs commercial realignment.

Sommer confirmed current booking pace and pricing are sufficient to hit guidance without further improvement, though uncertainty about maintaining conditions remains.

Sommer argued FX-adjusted 2025 growth is 29%, making 2026 a lower bar, and reiterated the algorithm of measured growth plus sub-inflationary costs.

Sommer confirmed mild occupancy tailwind expected in 2026 from more Caribbean deployment and fewer exotic itineraries.

Jason confirmed the Carnival-described pattern: a soft patch in May, then strong demand through most of June and July at strong volumes and pricing.

Jason emphatically stated the moderation has already reversed, not just improving. No impact seen on 2027 booking behaviors. Naftali added bookings were never negative, just moderated from a very strong trajectory.

Jason split 2026 yield roughly half new hardware, half like-for-like including Caribbean. Michael Bayley reported Beach Club Paradise Island became number one Nassau experience within four weeks with NPS within 0.8% of Perfect Day. Naftali noted margins growing on both new and existing ships.

Jason attributed the gap to below-the-line items including fuel compliance, global minimum tax, and destination depreciation. Reiterated $17 handle is not $17.01 and that consumer willingness to pay remains strong albeit moderating from double-digit prior years.

Naftali framed CapEx against growing cash generation, noting committed ship financing, Costa Maya acquisition closing Q1-Q2, Nassau Beach Club opening Q4, and modernization restart.

Jason outlined 2 ships in 2027 then 4/year, emphasized 'initial order' signals larger ambitions, noted 180-passenger ships sourced from 35M person database.

Janu pilings starting in weeks. Can't confirm exact pace of every other project but doesn't think UAE build capacity should be underestimated. If incremental rooms slip by a year, it doesn't matter on a 10-20 year investment horizon.

Management acknowledged this is a question they ask internally but don't have a good answer. Could build a bull case but 'now is not the time.' Confirmed they're thinking like management on this.