James Shin

Dave Ricks explained Part D plans did not opt in for 2027, so bridge extends. Expects population-level health improvements by end of 2027 to set up 2028 normalization. Commercial market normalization will follow.

Dave drew three parallels: low and consistent out-of-pocket ($50) is itself expansionary, consistent variance avoids monthly frustration, and it's open to all innovators. Noted seniors use GLP-1s at lower rates than general population, likely income-related, and expects significant uptake with demonstrated cost savings to Medicare within a few years.

Dave strongly endorsed the Cigna move toward transparency, arguing it benefits innovators by making clinical differentiation the basis of competition rather than nontransparent rebates. Expects more valuable medicines to benefit and hopes others rapidly follow.

Lucas reaffirmed mid-to-high single-digit price erosion guidance, noting Q1 was minus 6%, consistent with expectations. CVS dynamics factored into forecasting.

Dan drew parallel to tirzepatide Phase II-to-III transition where slower titration improved tolerability while maintaining efficacy in longer studies.

Dean Li confirmed MK-6837 has been discontinued given sac-TMT's strength, while Rob Davis added that Merck has undisclosed immunology assets beyond TL1A in the 'invisible pipeline' that will enter Phase I.

Dean confirmed detailed Phase II data including secondary endpoints will be presented at ACC in March, with Phase III endpoint selection still under FDA discussion for this orphan indication population.

Dean reiterated MK-2010 commitment is unchanged and dates back to 2018; declined to comment on any Sino Biopharm notification specifics.

Rob said US CapEx will likely grow beyond $21B; Dean said Merck will gate PD-1/VEGF decisions on their own data evolution.

Rob said U.S. played no role in the long-term guide change; Dean emphasized the FDA's high bar for changing GARDASIL dosing.

Chris cited execution strength, talent acquisition, AI/technology continuation, and fresh external perspective as key expectations for new CMO Cristian Massacesi.

Chris declined to prioritize specific policy triggers but emphasized importance of US corporate tax rate competitiveness as often overlooked factor.

Samit noted PFS benefit but OS data still needed plus safety comparison. BMY focused on precision-driven NSCLC portfolio and high-dose ipilimumab/Opdivo combination.

Samit noted both arms difference and baseline-to-readout change are important endpoints. ADAPT will get press release at top line, full data at medical congress.

Pablo confirmed substantial EHA update: ~100 ET patients, ~45 second-line MF monotherapy, 15-16 MF combo patients. Durability, tolerability, and translational disease eradication data key. Bill said Suky will focus on budget efficiency and capital allocation.

Pablo confirmed SVR25, SVR35, TSS50, and anemia data in MF update. Bill framed 989 as building long-duration revenue stream into next decade, not gap-filling. 989 solves problems HU created in ET with targeted approach.

Steven highlighted dramatic drug effect demonstration: 20-30%+ absolute HiSCR improvement in just 6 weeks after crossover, with encouraging activity across both anti-TNF and anti-IL-17 experienced patients.

Confirmed press release plus investor call for HS data disclosure. On X262 (CSU), no update, still evaluating preclinical toxicology findings.

Roopal positioned PD-1 VEGF as combination partner for Temab-A ADC portfolio across CRC, lung, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. On epcoritamab, frontline DLBCL with R-CHOP identified as largest opportunity with potential data this year.

Scott Reents noted favorable Q1 pricing was timing-related from improved co-pay utilization and earlier-than-expected channel mix changes; still expects negative full-year pricing headwind.

Johanna reported 70-80% white bagging through specialty pharmacy versus 20-30% buy-and-bill, consistent with HIV Day 2024 expectations. Mix expected to shift toward buy-and-bill as J-code integrates and practices gain comfort.

Johanna attributed Descovy strength to 16% PrEP market growth, growing unrestricted access, and commercial execution. Confirmed PrEP market setup supports lenacapavir opportunity.