John Mackay

Natalie Gayden explained the shut-in gas is mostly higher-GOR producers choked back on Waha exposure, and sees the volumes returning as a longer-term positive for EPD's integrated system.

Tug confirmed strong physical premiums and believes futures market is underpricing physical reality; expects convergence upward.

Randy confirmed 2027 outlook was based purely on fee-based cash flows from new assets and the Occidental acquisition volumes ramping.

Tyler confirmed resilient demand despite noise. U.S. LPG finding new markets in India and Southeast Asia. Strong interest in long-term export capacity.

Randy saw minimal incremental headwinds for 2026. Octane enhancement margins already normalized from 2024 to 2025; no similar magnitude change expected.

Tug said NRT ethane train full by mid-2026, second train shortly after. Bahia online end November. Frac 14 already in service. 90% contracted on LPG.

Natalie reported Midland well connects in 2026 up 25% to over 600. Delaware growth steepening with record connections. Jay confirmed double-digit crude gathering gains YoY.

Jim and Tug confirmed 85-90% contracted and full. Strategy is to offset margin compression with volume. Justin noted very little NGL pipe recontracting through end of decade.

Randy clarified $1.8-$1.9B is committed to finish FID'd projects; only $600-$700M is unidentified. Even without new FIDs, 2026 CapEx has a floor.

Jim cited recent Southeast Asian contract signings with no behavioral change at docks. Tug noted propane must price to displace naphtha but demand fundamentally intact.

Jim detailed minimal direct China exposure. Highlighted growing Southeast Asian and European ethane contracts. Expected ethane exports to reach 600,000+ barrels/day.

Justin explained mix effects from higher Rockies tariffs versus Permian Y-grade rates. Growth from Permian continues to support reinvestment economics.

John derived the $2B from the gap between 3.75x run-rate leverage and the 4x ceiling; direct.

Zamarin confirmed Atlas enables data center diesel-to-gas conversion. Larsen added CapEx is slightly under $50 million providing lateral interconnection with strong reliability.

Zamarin emphasized full value chain solution, touching every producer and utility. Said Williams is the most focused natural gas infrastructure company providing comprehensive solutions.

Mackay asked about supply-side constraints and whether Williams needs Permian exposure. Zamarin said growth will come from Haynesville, Appalachia, and Permian, with Appalachia constrained. Williams benefits from Permian gas flowing through Transco regardless. Porter added Haynesville growth depends on Western Haynesville development and the Permian will need to fill demand that the big three alone cannot meet.

Mackay asked about converting transmission backlog to FID. Larsen said the key is customer engagement along key corridors with strong demand forecasts. Zamarin highlighted customers across every region of the footprint are desperate for infrastructure, with transmission and storage demand incredibly high.

Zamarin said Wamsutter has very high margins from integrated value chain but needs full delineation before disposition. Only a couple of percentage points of total earnings. Priority is ensuring asset developed to full potential.

Zamarin said team optimized for capital efficiency sweet spot, similar to SSE process. Demand exceeded contracted capacity. Expects additional expansion projects along the corridor.

Larsen said EA vs full EIS speeds permitting. Anticipate partial in-service beginning of 2027 with scope and contracting details still being finalized. Full acceleration of about a quarter for complete in-service.

Zamarin said customers view as permanent with grid connection optionality. Noted 15 years of pipeline capacity backing 10-year PPA. Armstrong added worst case is facility becomes standby generation replacing diesel backup.

Armstrong encouraged by FERC and administration efforts but said permanent fix requires legislative judicial reform to address litigation and obstructive environmentalists. Wilson agreed reform momentum is building.

Zamarin said Wamsutter consolidation aims to optimize upstream development for downstream value. May reposition upstream asset once optimal development program is set. Haynesville asset moving toward disposition.

Armstrong said data center FIDs would drive above 5-7% but emphasized broader utility IRP-driven demand growth on Transco is the more fundamental driver. Noted January 10% peak growth was not weather-driven.

David attributed outperformance to strong CO2 oil production, commodity prices amid the Iran conflict, and higher Texas intrastate margins and capacity sales.

Kim said all $10B are active conversations with customers including cost estimates and return analysis. Not speculative pipeline, these are projects with real commercial discussions underway.

Kim said gas segment nicely beating budget even excluding Outrigger despite mild weather. Terminals also exceeding budget. Products roughly on budget. Weakness concentrated in RNG and slightly in CO2.

Kim said LNG is the biggest demand growth driver with expected doubling, and LNG projects tend to generate follow-on supply diversification work. However, power demand breadth is enormous across Arkansas, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Texas. WoodMac may undercount power demand growth.

David said benefits not material in 2025 but substantial in 2026-2027; KMI not expected to be a material federal income taxpayer in either year. Full expensing provision is the biggest piece. Kim emphasized incremental cash flow does not change return thresholds, good projects have unlimited capital access.

Kim highlighted $400M more projects Board-approved pending contract signatures. Demand drivers remain very strong across LNG, power, AI, and manufacturing. Rich emphasized 70,000 miles of pipe and 40% market share.

Kim detailed FERC filing that could accelerate permits by up to five months. Army Corps reducing timeframes. Positive interactions with parks and fish. Also exploring partial early in-service of project segments.

Sital cited capillary connections to data centers and power plants. Kim noted MSX connects Tennessee Gas Pipeline's three legs for operating flexibility. Trident integrates with Texas Intrastate.

Kim said $2.5B is an average over 3-4 years, can be lumpy ($2B-$3B). Fully self-funded from cash flow. Balance sheet at 3.8x can absorb lumpiness. Number could increase with significant new backlog additions.

Muraro described an oscillating cycle: basis improves when new pipes come online, then tightens as growth fills them. Expects pipes coming online in 2026 to fill faster than people expect. More pipes will be needed beyond those already announced.

Kneale confirmed returns remain consistent with track record. Not taking lower returns to grow. Advantages include largest sour system, largest Permian footprint, and ability to do step-outs economically from existing infrastructure.

Kneale said no broad or big swings in GORs, noting the broad theme of increasing GORs continues to strengthen, benefiting Targa's gas-weighted business.

Meloy noted growth tracking largely in line with expectations, with the Delaware showing a little more strength. Midland plants fill quickly at startup via depressuring. Delaware system starting to look more like that as it builds out.

Meloy indicated the $300M maintenance level is achievable after downstream projects complete (Trains 11, 12, export) into early 2027, if natural gas volumes flatten.

Meloy differentiated Midland (fills quickly due to system communication) vs Delaware (more discrete, more white space). Both expected highly utilized but Delaware may have more ramp time.

Hulse guided growth CapEx moderating to a $2-2.5 billion run rate, implying strong free cash flow.

Pierce outlined 2026 projects (Denver, Shadowfax, Medford Phase 1) with some rolling into early 2027. Beyond that, normalized to ~$600M maintenance + ~$1B routine growth + $400-500M larger projects. No large pipeline-scale projects on horizon; JV dock wrapping up into 2028.

Sheridan clarified focus is on organic Permian growth via RFPs from producers with expiring contracts and new drilling, leveraging cross-basin customer relationships. Inorganic reference was about past platform-building; current priority is connecting existing system to wells.

Sheridan noted crude volume shortfall primarily in low-margin exchange volumes, with core gathering business (wellhead to system) performing as expected.

Sheridan noted 15% volume increase positions for upside when spreads normalize, reminding that 90% of business is volume-times-fee with commodities only 10%.