Katja Jancic

Noah Hanners reaffirmed the 50% year-one utilization path and explained tons can be shifted from other mills to support the ramp; Leon added startup experience context.

Steve Laxton gave a specific industry-level number and said the same band or better should hold for the next couple of years, with interest-rate-sensitive segments already depressed.

Leon confirmed customers are actively exploring domestic sourcing to control costs under new tariff structure. Import levels at 15%, lowest in his career at Nucor.

Nucor has invested in NuScale Power and Helion fusion, hedges 40-50% of natural gas, drills its own wells, and maintains long-term uninterruptible power contracts with utilities across all mill states.

Leon cited C.H.I. overhead doors as an example of steel-centric adjacency M&A. Highlighted data centers, energy infrastructure, and towers/structures as primary M&A focus areas with synergies to Nucor's existing platform.

Leon framed it as: maintain investment-grade credit, return 40%+ of net earnings to shareholders, and use the remaining ~60% for growth. Referenced $7B through-cycle EBITDA from 2022 Investor Day as the denominator.

Steve guided $100-110M per quarter for Q4 and Q1, in line with Q3's $103M, reflecting project ramp progress.

Noah explained the team optimizes between buying slabs and rolling internally vs shipping finished coils from other mills, noting they have leaned into more internal substrate this year.

Leon cited potential Brazilian tariff impact on slabs and backlog pricing lag. Al Behr detailed DRI pellet tariff mitigation already completed and pig iron exposure reduced to 7-8% of mill feed.

Leon confirmed the models are built conservatively for tariffs going into effect, with potential upside if they do not materialize.

Leon and Steve confirmed $3B CapEx excludes tariff speculation, with remaining equipment imports primarily from Italy and Germany.

Leon confirmed Brandenburg at 150,000-160,000 ton pace with expectations to increase throughout the rest of 2025.

Steve attributed the shipment beat to solid underlying demand and favorable holiday timing, not tariff pre-buying.

Steve pivoted to the broader demand outlook rather than providing specific inventory data, expressing optimism about deregulation, tariffs, and reshoring trends.

Attributed the 2028 dip to lower grades and sequencing/timing changes, with operating rates broadly unchanged.

Quirk confirmed changes to tariff codes did not impact refined copper cathodes. Government review of broader copper tariffs expected by mid-year.

Quirk described a mixed sourcing model including smelter-produced acid, a sulfur burner at Safford, and purchased acid. FCX is net long acid across its global portfolio.

Quirk attributed South America cost increases to labor, energy/power costs, and weaker dollar. Forecasting net cash costs in the $2.58 range for 2026, consistent with Q4 2025 run rate.

Quirk explained idle facility costs charged directly to expense during reduced operations, but no long-term cost impact expected. Consolidated average temporarily higher due to lower Indonesia contribution.

Quirk said direct Freeport imports are not significant; bigger impact is supplier pass-throughs from steel/aluminum tariffs. Task force monitoring vendor claims. Efficiency and automation gains expected to more than offset.

Quirk said they are reviewing all project economics including capital and operating costs. Decision expected by year-end, framed as optional with ability to defer.

Quirk explained it requires further legislation with bipartisan support but could not predict U.S. legislative timing. Noted ~$500 million potential benefit.

CFO gave a preliminary 2027 CapEx range of ~$500-600M at maximum with $250-300M sustaining, cautioning that longer-term planning is still underway.

Management said utilization ramped sequentially month-over-month, averaging 50% for the quarter and closer to 60% by June, with a steeper H2 ramp expected.

Mark confirmed 90% exit rate target for 2026, up from previous 75% guidance, driven by team performance and equipment confidence. Theresa noted first half still impacted by ongoing construction and commissioning of downstream facilities but expects improving EBITDA throughout H1. Second half focused on product mix optimization.

Mark highlighted accelerated qualifications as incredible given learning curve stage. Can sheet supplied to principal can makers with flawless initial performance. Theresa confirmed longer-term contract negotiations underway for can sheet and automotive. Expects full optimization in automotive earlier in 2027 than previously expected. 2026 mix will have strong can sheet representation but not yet full automotive optimization.

Theresa declined to share specific Sinton financials starting this year. Confirmed significantly better than Q1 with a step function increase expected in H2.

Theresa said not yet at that pace due to ongoing product development for automotive and API grades. 2026 is the target for through-cycle run rate of around $500 million as value-added mix optimizes.

Mark provided comprehensive overview of tariff impacts across products. Scrap unaffected, P1020 aluminum tariffs absorbed through Midwest premium, pig iron manageable via scrap substitution, Mexico slab impact incremental in ramp year.