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Analyst
Ken Herbert
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 43on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 2%1 of 43 questions
- Companies
- 10questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 43 of 43 questions from 10 companies
TDGTransDigm Group11 questions · 8 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
did that DOJ review have any impact on your desire for incremental defense M&A?
Show response
Mike framed the Stellant DOJ challenge as a one-off (the third failed deal out of 100 in company history), not indicative of future deal ability, and said the M&A team remains busy.
Calendar 2026 Q1
If we are in a situation where crude remains elevated, just how would you expect that to flow through your business?
Show response
Joel gave confidence on Q3 given no April impact and noted less backlog visibility further out, but declined to address 2027 until next year's guidance.
Calendar 2025 Q4
you feel like you're basically through the destock you've seen on the MAX
Show response
Patrick confirmed destocking is done and they're now in lockstep supporting Boeing and Airbus build rates. Positive indicators from both OEMs creating tailwind. Mike added wide brackets on OEM guidance are appropriate given last 2 years of ramp-up challenges.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how do we think about the ability to get the recent acquisitions up to sort of TransDigm margins?
Show response
Mike confirmed underlying base business margin improvement is squarely between the expected 1% to 1.5% range when adjusting for acquisition dilution and OEM mix shift. Simmonds and Servotronics margins came in low but products are great with nothing fundamentally different preventing margin march upward.
Calendar 2025 Q2
can you provide any more color on bookings that you saw?
Show response
Mike said defense bookings were very strong year-to-date, well in excess of shipments. Growth broadly distributed across operating units. DoD outlays slowed from high single digits to low single digits.
Calendar 2025 Q1
are you maybe more open now to doing less traditional acquisitions? Do you feel like you've got a better understanding of opportunities?
Show response
Mike said TDG evaluates all aerospace deals including software if they offer sticky earnings with PE-like return potential. Won't launch down a software-specific path.
did you see any pre-buy activity with any airlines around the world just looking to get ahead of sort of this tariff risk
Show response
Kevin said no meaningful pre-buy detected to get ahead of tariffs. Limited visibility into airline purchasing motivations through distribution channel.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Are you seeing any incremental pressure in -- on pricing across any of the submarkets within the aftermarket
Show response
Joel said no change in pricing dynamics. Approach remains covering inflationary costs plus a little more.
Can you remind us what percent of aftermarket engine represents? And maybe how much over the up nine was the engine
Show response
Joel said engine aftermarket was up significantly more than the 9% total but didn't quantify the exact share or growth rate.
Calendar 2024 Q3
frame up now exiting 2024, the mix of defense between maybe getting even at a high level aftermarket versus OE
Show response
Mike said defense mix is roughly half OEM and half aftermarket, similar to commercial. Both grew at similar rates in FY2024.
where did you really see the upside in defense? Was it sort of up-tempo activity in areas?
Show response
Mike said defense strength was uniform across operating units with Avtech and Armtec slightly stronger. Consistent outlay growth of 8-12% for many quarters aided results.
LDOSLeidos7 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
where do you see the most conservatism maybe across the segments?
Show response
Cage said Health run rate stays at Q2 levels in the back half, Homeland and Defense continue to accelerate, and Intel and Digital is most vulnerable to year-end CR disruption; FAA is potential upside.
Calendar 2026 Q1
if you can give an update on integration there. And I think, Tom, in particular, you called out a $10 billion opportunity pipeline or order pipeline, how do we think about timing on that
Show response
Bell highlighted clean quick close in 2 months, seamless integration, and deployment of AI tools into Entrust while learning Entrust's technology tools for legacy electric services. Customers receptive to increased scale and capacity. Energy business has shorter cycle times than rest of Leidos, so orders liquidate within 1-2 years enabling rapid growth.
Calendar 2025 Q4
the bookings backdrop is gonna accelerate from here based on what you just said. And and I was just hoping you can maybe elaborate on that and and shed some additional color on what the shape of th...
Show response
Bell attributed strong bookings to purposeful multi-year investment in the growth function with new leadership. Cage added the next-12-month pipeline of submittal activity is at its highest point, with three-quarters geared toward new business and takeaway rather than recompetes.
How are you thinking about incremental M&A opportunities this year? Where are your priorities and what does the guidance imply for buybacks this year
Show response
Bell signaled a shift from shareholder-friendly buybacks to growth-oriented investment now that NorthStar 2030 strategy is in hand. Cage confirmed no buybacks baked into FY2026 guidance, with capital priorities being organic investment, M&A, and dividend continuation.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how do we think about M&A in this environment? How are you thinking about it? And where are you focused in terms of specific opportunities
Show response
Bell explained inorganic will now be more part of the playbook with defined NorthStar growth pillars, but balanced with organic investment, buybacks, and dividends. Remains judicious with hurdle rates.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Is it possible to maybe quantify how we should think about that first half, second half cost dynamic
Show response
Cage declined specifics but confirmed substantial savings achieved through austerity in first half, with tens of millions returning to investment in second half for AI adoption, maritime capabilities, and defense products.
Calendar 2025 Q1
have you seen any pronounced change in expected contract terms, or basically within contract structures
Show response
Bell noted no changes yet in contract terms but fully anticipates shifts toward outcome-based contracting, citing recent FAR revision letters from the administration. Leidos is preparing internally.
GDGeneral Dynamics5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
how has that been impacted and is that a potential risk as we think about sort of the next few quarters?
Show response
Danny acknowledged potential small impact if conflict persists, specifically on G280. Q1 was unaffected as aircraft were already in inventory for completion.
Can you give any comments maybe around any onetime advances or other items that could have been supported some of the upside
Show response
Kim emphasized broad-based outperformance across all 10 business units, not one-time advances. Cash will be positive but lower in remaining quarters. Hinted cash conversion could exceed 100% for the year.
Calendar 2025 Q3
How should we think about timing from what would be a protracted shutdown from your view?
Show response
No cash collection impact yet but contracting personnel furloughed, assessing impact on rolling weekly basis, longer duration increases risk especially in supply chain
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you provide any commentary on cadence of deliveries as we think about second quarter and second half of the year from Gulfstream?
Show response
Indicated consistent delivery cadence with normal quarterly mix variations, reaffirmed sticking with January guidance with potential Q2 update
Are you seeing anything else geographically? Maybe any areas of softness or anything else that sticks out
Show response
Confirmed consistent demand patterns with U.S. and Middle East both strong, no systemic changes observed
NOCNorthrop Grumman5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
can you talk about what the guidance implies for international growth in 2026? And specifically, you've called out a number of quarters now. It seems like an accelerating opportunity for IBCS
Show response
Warden expects 2026 particularly strong for international awards. US and Poland expanding IBCS deployment, two or three new country awards expected this year. Munitions also double-digit international growth. Airborne radar awards in 2026 with sales impact more in 2027.
Calendar 2025 Q3
How do you think about that program and the growth into 2026 in particular? But then also we're hearing that that program in particular is very well suited
Show response
Warden said IBCS applicable for homeland protection as demonstrated in Poland live fire. Over a dozen countries expressing interest.
when we could expect other incremental orders internationally in particular as you talk to those 12 countries?
Show response
Warden confirmed international IBCS orders start phasing in 2026. IBCS expected to be a significant double-digit growth driver next year.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Have your thank you. Have your assumptions at all changed on F-35 international sales this year into 2026
Show response
Warden confirmed no change in F-35 expectations; contracted to produce at max rate of 156 aircraft.
With all the strong bookings, are you how should we think about now maybe any upward momentum on international either as a mix in 2025
Show response
Warden highlighted 1.45x international book-to-bill, broad-based demand across IBCS, Argum, Argum ER, E-2D, and Triton with double-digit DS international growth.
GEGE Aerospace4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
the new generation cost of ownership for the engines is much higher than before
Show response
Culp acknowledged the concerns and cited near-zero LEAP AOGs and durability retrofits as the fix.
Calendar 2026 Q1
do you get a sense that there was any prebuying by your customers on the aftermarket ahead of potential disruptions or concerns down the road
Show response
Culp firmly denied pull-forward, citing portfolio breadth and still-rising delinquency as evidence that underlying demand remains genuine and supply-constrained.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I wanted to ask about the 15% higher revenues associated with narrow-body services through 2028
Show response
Rahul broke down the $4B services improvement: 600 incremental CFM56 shop visits from fewer retirements and longer fleet life (lease renewals at 90-95% vs 30-40%), plus LEAP installed base growth. Wide-body similarly improved with 100 additional GE90 shop visits.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you comment if you expected or saw any pre-buys there, specifically in China or elsewhere
Show response
Rahul confirmed no pre-buys, LEAP growing faster with 30%+ shop visit growth expected and external channel rising to 15% of total shop visit revenue.
HWMHowmet Aerospace3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
where do you think you and the industry are in terms of supporting those rates 3 to 4 years from now
Show response
John stressed uncertainty over true multi-year demand and supply-base constraints, declining to commit to specific rate readiness while affirming Howmet will make more.
Calendar 2025 Q2
as you look across sort of your portfolio, are there any areas where you see incremental risk of this if we do see maybe any slower ramp
Show response
Plant noted Howmet powered through aerospace destocking that hit peers with high single-digit declines. Guidance still layers in some Q3 destocking while expecting growth acceleration.
Calendar 2024 Q4
What's the underlying assumption for spares growth in 2025 if you can provide that? And I guess specifically, you know, the last few calls you've talked up in particular demand around the CFM56
Show response
Plant pushed CFM56 peak spares demand to 2027, citing older fleet working harder. Expects healthy increase in both spares and OE builds in 2025.
Show 4 more companies
LMTLockheed Martin3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
I wanted to just verify this was F-35 or if there's anything else to call out on that in the first quarter
Show response
Scott cited ERP billing system transformation as main driver of Q1 cash flow headwind, expected resolution by Q2. Cash flow to be back-end loaded as in prior years. IRS CAMT guidance strengthens confidence in top end of range.
Calendar 2025 Q3
could you talk about confidence in the supply chain to ramp production over the next few years, whether it be solid rocket motors, seekers
Show response
Jim cited three SRM providers now (Aerojet, Northrop, GD JV), top-level supplier commitments on seekers, and daily supply chain monitoring across the portfolio.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Can you provide a little bit more on what's implied in the 2025 guide for working capital improvement?
Show response
Jay explained 2024 reduced working capital days by a couple to mid-30s cash conversion cycle, 2025 targets about one day improvement to keep working capital neutral, with ongoing contract asset opportunities.
RTXRTX Corporation3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
are you seeing any incremental risk on your, I guess, Pratt supply chain from suppliers around the world just as a result of the war in Iran?
Show response
Mitchill confirmed no new supply chain issues from Iran conflict. OE deliveries to ramp ratably with easier Q2 compare due to prior-year strike. Negative engine margin will increase over next several quarters as OE mix shifts.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I wanted to see if you can talk about the up 13% in the Collins aftermarket and specifically the pieces within that
Show response
Calio said both Pratt and Collins have been aggressive on pricing. Collins had double-digit growth in all 3 aftermarket channels. Mitchill highlighted parts & repair up 13% as encouraging.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you provide any disaggregation of provisioning versus repair the parts of the business? And I guess as part of that, is there any incremental risk you're seeing around destocking
Show response
Mitchill broke down Collins: parts & repair up high single-digits, provisioning mid-single-digits, mods & upgrades over 10% (bright spot after flat 2024).
BAThe Boeing Company1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
how do we think about that with the opportunity and the pace of margin improvement in BDS as you seem to be -- have turned the corner
Show response
Ortberg downplayed strike impact at 3,200 vs 30,000 in prior IAM stoppage. New contracts all have cost-plus for development. Active management approach spreading from T-7A to other programs.
LHXL3Harris1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2024 Q4
as you look at your exposure to Ukraine, can you level set us on sort of directly or indirectly, how you see that?
Show response
Kubasik sized Ukraine at tens of millions, manageable. International growing faster than domestic, could increase 1-2pp as percentage of revenue.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| TDG TransDigm Group | 11 | 0%none of 11 questions |
| LDOS Leidos | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| GD General Dynamics | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| GE GE Aerospace | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions |
| LMT Lockheed Martin | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions |
| RTX RTX Corporation | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions |
| BA The Boeing Company | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
| LHX L3Harris | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- TDGTransDigm Group · 11 questions0%none of 11 questions
- LDOSLeidos · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- GDGeneral Dynamics · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- NOCNorthrop Grumman · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- GEGE Aerospace · 4 questions25%1 of 4 questions
- HWMHowmet Aerospace · 3 questions0%none of 3 questions
- LMTLockheed Martin · 3 questions0%none of 3 questions
- RTXRTX Corporation · 3 questions0%none of 3 questions
- BAThe Boeing Company · 1 question—rate withheld: under 3 questions
- LHXL3Harris · 1 question—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q1 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q2 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q3 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 6 |
| 2025 Q4 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 3 |
| 2026 Q1 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 6 |
| 2026 Q2 | 4 | 25%1 of 4 questions | 4 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q18 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q25 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
- 2025 Q44 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies
- 2026 Q17 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
- 2026 Q24 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 4 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand22
- Revenue Growth12
- Supply Chain7
- M&A6
- Capital Allocation5
- Geographic Expansion5
- Margin5
- Competitive Dynamics3
- Cost Pressure2
- Guidance Reliability2
Show all 18 topics
- Macroeconomic2
- Regulation Policy2
- Product Launch2
- Pricing2
- Labor Market1
- Capex Investment1
- Innovation & R&D1
- Trade Tariffs1