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Analyst

Ken Herbert

RBC Capital Markets · covers Industrials, Technology

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).

Questions
43on tracked calls
Challenge rate
2%1 of 43 questions
Companies
10questioned at least once
Reporting periods
8with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 43 of 43 questions from 10 companies

TDGTransDigm Group11 questions · 8 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
TDG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

did that DOJ review have any impact on your desire for incremental defense M&A?

Show response

Mike framed the Stellant DOJ challenge as a one-off (the third failed deal out of 100 in company history), not indicative of future deal ability, and said the M&A team remains busy.

Calendar 2026 Q1

If we are in a situation where crude remains elevated, just how would you expect that to flow through your business?

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Joel gave confidence on Q3 given no April impact and noted less backlog visibility further out, but declined to address 2027 until next year's guidance.

Calendar 2025 Q4

you feel like you're basically through the destock you've seen on the MAX

Supply ChainDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Patrick confirmed destocking is done and they're now in lockstep supporting Boeing and Airbus build rates. Positive indicators from both OEMs creating tailwind. Mike added wide brackets on OEM guidance are appropriate given last 2 years of ramp-up challenges.

Calendar 2025 Q3

how do we think about the ability to get the recent acquisitions up to sort of TransDigm margins?

Show response

Mike confirmed underlying base business margin improvement is squarely between the expected 1% to 1.5% range when adjusting for acquisition dilution and OEM mix shift. Simmonds and Servotronics margins came in low but products are great with nothing fundamentally different preventing margin march upward.

Calendar 2025 Q2

can you provide any more color on bookings that you saw?

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Mike said defense bookings were very strong year-to-date, well in excess of shipments. Growth broadly distributed across operating units. DoD outlays slowed from high single digits to low single digits.

Calendar 2025 Q1

are you maybe more open now to doing less traditional acquisitions? Do you feel like you've got a better understanding of opportunities?

M&AInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Mike said TDG evaluates all aerospace deals including software if they offer sticky earnings with PE-like return potential. Won't launch down a software-specific path.

did you see any pre-buy activity with any airlines around the world just looking to get ahead of sort of this tariff risk

Trade TariffsDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Kevin said no meaningful pre-buy detected to get ahead of tariffs. Limited visibility into airline purchasing motivations through distribution channel.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Are you seeing any incremental pressure in -- on pricing across any of the submarkets within the aftermarket

Show response

Joel said no change in pricing dynamics. Approach remains covering inflationary costs plus a little more.

Can you remind us what percent of aftermarket engine represents? And maybe how much over the up nine was the engine

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Joel said engine aftermarket was up significantly more than the 9% total but didn't quantify the exact share or growth rate.

Calendar 2024 Q3

frame up now exiting 2024, the mix of defense between maybe getting even at a high level aftermarket versus OE

Show response

Mike said defense mix is roughly half OEM and half aftermarket, similar to commercial. Both grew at similar rates in FY2024.

where did you really see the upside in defense? Was it sort of up-tempo activity in areas?

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Mike said defense strength was uniform across operating units with Avtech and Armtec slightly stronger. Consistent outlay growth of 8-12% for many quarters aided results.

LDOSLeidos7 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
LDOS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

where do you see the most conservatism maybe across the segments?

Guidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Cage said Health run rate stays at Q2 levels in the back half, Homeland and Defense continue to accelerate, and Intel and Digital is most vulnerable to year-end CR disruption; FAA is potential upside.

Calendar 2026 Q1

if you can give an update on integration there. And I think, Tom, in particular, you called out a $10 billion opportunity pipeline or order pipeline, how do we think about timing on that

Show response

Bell highlighted clean quick close in 2 months, seamless integration, and deployment of AI tools into Entrust while learning Entrust's technology tools for legacy electric services. Customers receptive to increased scale and capacity. Energy business has shorter cycle times than rest of Leidos, so orders liquidate within 1-2 years enabling rapid growth.

Calendar 2025 Q4

the bookings backdrop is gonna accelerate from here based on what you just said. And and I was just hoping you can maybe elaborate on that and and shed some additional color on what the shape of th...

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Bell attributed strong bookings to purposeful multi-year investment in the growth function with new leadership. Cage added the next-12-month pipeline of submittal activity is at its highest point, with three-quarters geared toward new business and takeaway rather than recompetes.

How are you thinking about incremental M&A opportunities this year? Where are your priorities and what does the guidance imply for buybacks this year

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Bell signaled a shift from shareholder-friendly buybacks to growth-oriented investment now that NorthStar 2030 strategy is in hand. Cage confirmed no buybacks baked into FY2026 guidance, with capital priorities being organic investment, M&A, and dividend continuation.

Calendar 2025 Q3

how do we think about M&A in this environment? How are you thinking about it? And where are you focused in terms of specific opportunities

M&ACapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Bell explained inorganic will now be more part of the playbook with defined NorthStar growth pillars, but balanced with organic investment, buybacks, and dividends. Remains judicious with hurdle rates.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Is it possible to maybe quantify how we should think about that first half, second half cost dynamic

MarginCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Cage declined specifics but confirmed substantial savings achieved through austerity in first half, with tens of millions returning to investment in second half for AI adoption, maritime capabilities, and defense products.

Calendar 2025 Q1

have you seen any pronounced change in expected contract terms, or basically within contract structures

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Bell noted no changes yet in contract terms but fully anticipates shifts toward outcome-based contracting, citing recent FAR revision letters from the administration. Leidos is preparing internally.

GDGeneral Dynamics5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
GD company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

how has that been impacted and is that a potential risk as we think about sort of the next few quarters?

Show response

Danny acknowledged potential small impact if conflict persists, specifically on G280. Q1 was unaffected as aircraft were already in inventory for completion.

Can you give any comments maybe around any onetime advances or other items that could have been supported some of the upside

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Kim emphasized broad-based outperformance across all 10 business units, not one-time advances. Cash will be positive but lower in remaining quarters. Hinted cash conversion could exceed 100% for the year.

Calendar 2025 Q3

How should we think about timing from what would be a protracted shutdown from your view?

Regulation PolicyMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

No cash collection impact yet but contracting personnel furloughed, assessing impact on rolling weekly basis, longer duration increases risk especially in supply chain

Calendar 2025 Q1

can you provide any commentary on cadence of deliveries as we think about second quarter and second half of the year from Gulfstream?

Product LaunchGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Indicated consistent delivery cadence with normal quarterly mix variations, reaffirmed sticking with January guidance with potential Q2 update

Are you seeing anything else geographically? Maybe any areas of softness or anything else that sticks out

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Confirmed consistent demand patterns with U.S. and Middle East both strong, no systemic changes observed

NOCNorthrop Grumman5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
NOC company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

can you talk about what the guidance implies for international growth in 2026? And specifically, you've called out a number of quarters now. It seems like an accelerating opportunity for IBCS

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Warden expects 2026 particularly strong for international awards. US and Poland expanding IBCS deployment, two or three new country awards expected this year. Munitions also double-digit international growth. Airborne radar awards in 2026 with sales impact more in 2027.

Calendar 2025 Q3

How do you think about that program and the growth into 2026 in particular? But then also we're hearing that that program in particular is very well suited

DemandProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Warden said IBCS applicable for homeland protection as demonstrated in Poland live fire. Over a dozen countries expressing interest.

when we could expect other incremental orders internationally in particular as you talk to those 12 countries?

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Warden confirmed international IBCS orders start phasing in 2026. IBCS expected to be a significant double-digit growth driver next year.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Have your thank you. Have your assumptions at all changed on F-35 international sales this year into 2026

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Warden confirmed no change in F-35 expectations; contracted to produce at max rate of 156 aircraft.

With all the strong bookings, are you how should we think about now maybe any upward momentum on international either as a mix in 2025

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Warden highlighted 1.45x international book-to-bill, broad-based demand across IBCS, Argum, Argum ER, E-2D, and Triton with double-digit DS international growth.

GEGE Aerospace4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 4 challenging
GE company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

the new generation cost of ownership for the engines is much higher than before

ChallengingCost PressureCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Culp acknowledged the concerns and cited near-zero LEAP AOGs and durability retrofits as the fix.

Calendar 2026 Q1

do you get a sense that there was any prebuying by your customers on the aftermarket ahead of potential disruptions or concerns down the road

DemandSupply ChainTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Culp firmly denied pull-forward, citing portfolio breadth and still-rising delinquency as evidence that underlying demand remains genuine and supply-constrained.

Calendar 2025 Q2

I wanted to ask about the 15% higher revenues associated with narrow-body services through 2028

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Rahul broke down the $4B services improvement: 600 incremental CFM56 shop visits from fewer retirements and longer fleet life (lease renewals at 90-95% vs 30-40%), plus LEAP installed base growth. Wide-body similarly improved with 100 additional GE90 shop visits.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Can you comment if you expected or saw any pre-buys there, specifically in China or elsewhere

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Rahul confirmed no pre-buys, LEAP growing faster with 30%+ shop visit growth expected and external channel rising to 15% of total shop visit revenue.

HWMHowmet Aerospace3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
HWM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

where do you think you and the industry are in terms of supporting those rates 3 to 4 years from now

DemandCompetitive DynamicsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

John stressed uncertainty over true multi-year demand and supply-base constraints, declining to commit to specific rate readiness while affirming Howmet will make more.

Calendar 2025 Q2

as you look across sort of your portfolio, are there any areas where you see incremental risk of this if we do see maybe any slower ramp

Supply ChainDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Plant noted Howmet powered through aerospace destocking that hit peers with high single-digit declines. Guidance still layers in some Q3 destocking while expecting growth acceleration.

Calendar 2024 Q4

What's the underlying assumption for spares growth in 2025 if you can provide that? And I guess specifically, you know, the last few calls you've talked up in particular demand around the CFM56

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Plant pushed CFM56 peak spares demand to 2027, citing older fleet working harder. Expects healthy increase in both spares and OE builds in 2025.

Show 4 more companies
LMTLockheed Martin3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
LMT company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

I wanted to just verify this was F-35 or if there's anything else to call out on that in the first quarter

Capital AllocationCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Scott cited ERP billing system transformation as main driver of Q1 cash flow headwind, expected resolution by Q2. Cash flow to be back-end loaded as in prior years. IRS CAMT guidance strengthens confidence in top end of range.

Calendar 2025 Q3

could you talk about confidence in the supply chain to ramp production over the next few years, whether it be solid rocket motors, seekers

Supply ChainRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Jim cited three SRM providers now (Aerojet, Northrop, GD JV), top-level supplier commitments on seekers, and daily supply chain monitoring across the portfolio.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Can you provide a little bit more on what's implied in the 2025 guide for working capital improvement?

Capital AllocationMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Jay explained 2024 reduced working capital days by a couple to mid-30s cash conversion cycle, 2025 targets about one day improvement to keep working capital neutral, with ongoing contract asset opportunities.

RTXRTX Corporation3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
RTX company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

are you seeing any incremental risk on your, I guess, Pratt supply chain from suppliers around the world just as a result of the war in Iran?

Supply ChainDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Mitchill confirmed no new supply chain issues from Iran conflict. OE deliveries to ramp ratably with easier Q2 compare due to prior-year strike. Negative engine margin will increase over next several quarters as OE mix shifts.

Calendar 2025 Q3

I wanted to see if you can talk about the up 13% in the Collins aftermarket and specifically the pieces within that

PricingRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Calio said both Pratt and Collins have been aggressive on pricing. Collins had double-digit growth in all 3 aftermarket channels. Mitchill highlighted parts & repair up 13% as encouraging.

Calendar 2024 Q4

can you provide any disaggregation of provisioning versus repair the parts of the business? And I guess as part of that, is there any incremental risk you're seeing around destocking

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Mitchill broke down Collins: parts & repair up high single-digits, provisioning mid-single-digits, mods & upgrades over 10% (bright spot after flat 2024).

BAThe Boeing Company1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
BA company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

how do we think about that with the opportunity and the pace of margin improvement in BDS as you seem to be -- have turned the corner

MarginLabor MarketTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Ortberg downplayed strike impact at 3,200 vs 30,000 in prior IAM stoppage. New contracts all have cost-plus for development. Active management approach spreading from T-7A to other programs.

LHXL3Harris1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
LHX company page →

Calendar 2024 Q4

as you look at your exposure to Ukraine, can you level set us on sort of directly or indirectly, how you see that?

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Kubasik sized Ukraine at tens of millions, manageable. International growing faster than domestic, could increase 1-2pp as percentage of revenue.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
TDG TransDigm Group110%none of 11 questions
LDOS Leidos70%none of 7 questions
GD General Dynamics50%none of 5 questions
NOC Northrop Grumman50%none of 5 questions
GE GE Aerospace425%1 of 4 questions
HWM Howmet Aerospace30%none of 3 questions
LMT Lockheed Martin30%none of 3 questions
RTX RTX Corporation30%none of 3 questions
BA The Boeing Company1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
LHX L3Harris1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • TDG
    TransDigm Group · 11 questions
    0%none of 11 questions
  • LDOS
    Leidos · 7 questions
    0%none of 7 questions
  • GD
    General Dynamics · 5 questions
    0%none of 5 questions
  • NOC
    Northrop Grumman · 5 questions
    0%none of 5 questions
  • GE
    GE Aerospace · 4 questions
    25%1 of 4 questions
  • HWM
    Howmet Aerospace · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • LMT
    Lockheed Martin · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • RTX
    RTX Corporation · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • BA
    The Boeing Company · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • LHX
    L3Harris · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q320%none of 2 questions1
2024 Q460%none of 6 questions5
2025 Q180%none of 8 questions5
2025 Q250%none of 5 questions5
2025 Q370%none of 7 questions6
2025 Q440%none of 4 questions3
2026 Q170%none of 7 questions6
2026 Q2425%1 of 4 questions4
  1. 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  2. 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 5 companies
  3. 2025 Q18 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 5 companies
  4. 2025 Q25 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 5 companies
  5. 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
  6. 2025 Q44 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies
  7. 2026 Q17 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 6 companies
  8. 2026 Q24 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 4 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Demand22
  • Revenue Growth12
  • Supply Chain7
  • M&A6
  • Capital Allocation5
  • Geographic Expansion5
  • Margin5
  • Competitive Dynamics3
  • Cost Pressure2
  • Guidance Reliability2
Show all 18 topics
  • Macroeconomic2
  • Regulation Policy2
  • Product Launch2
  • Pricing2
  • Labor Market1
  • Capex Investment1
  • Innovation & R&D1
  • Trade Tariffs1