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Analyst
Matthew Bouley
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 65on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 11%7 of 65 questions
- Companies
- 6questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 65 of 65 questions from 6 companies
DHID. R. Horton16 questions · 8 reporting periods · 2 of 16 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
would you say that the kind of two-thirds of the business you're at now maybe stabilizes?
Show response
Paul expects the first-time buyer mix to hold near two-thirds, with some room to move upmarket as communities penetrate.
why wouldn't there be kind of an incremental incentive headwind going forward?
Show response
Bill said incentives improved slightly but will stay elevated, supporting a relatively stable margin outlook into Q4.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is there a rule of thumb? Or how would that impact your homebuilding gross margins relative to your financial services margins
Show response
Murray said ARM uptake is not having significant material impact. ARMs at 10%, down from 13% sequentially. People still strongly prefer 30-year fixed rate.
was it kind of a reflection of the 6% mortgage rate environment we had from earlier this year
Show response
Romanowski attributed margin beat to combination of stick and brick savings, moderated lot cost increases, and strong demand allowing incentives to be held slightly better than expected.
Calendar 2025 Q4
does the move lower in rates at at a certain point either support that kind of cost of incentives, for you guys
Show response
Murray said incentive costs increased throughout Q1 from providing buydowns when rates were higher. Lower sustained rates could reduce costs but not yet in guidance.
is is there just any kind of signals you can take from the past couple weekends on on how buyers are responding to that
Show response
Romanowski said rates near 6% spur activity. Too early to call spring trajectory but feels good about inventory position, community count, and early Q2 sales to reaffirm guidance.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is there an outlook to either flattening or eventually improving lot cost? And when may that begin to benefit you guys
Show response
Romanowski said lot cost won't shift much in next 12 months. Some flattening in development costs but not overall land valuations. Hansen highlighted stick and brick cost reductions as the better opportunity in FY2026.
I'm trying to understand if there's any signal there, kind of any conceptual change to that balance between growth and gross margin
Show response
Murray said lot availability is unprecedented but emphasized they cannot run to zero profit margin. Continuing to respond to market on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis at each community.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I think you said it was up 4% sequentially and up 12% year over year. So curious if at this point, if you can give any kind of directional color or quantification on how 2026 may shape out
Show response
Romanowski said community count growth expected to moderate from double-digit to high then mid single-digit going into 2026. Feels good about new market progress.
your peer this morning spoke about maybe towards the end of June when rates came down a little bit. Seemed like there might have been a bit of a positive response from buyers
Show response
Romanowski described demand as choppy based on rate moves and news cycle. Said they've been consistent with rate offerings and pleased with July trends so far.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I think you've got about 37,000 homes in inventory right now. So, that ratio is maybe a little bit higher than what we've historically seen
Show response
Recent sales uptick supports starts acceleration. Compressed build times allow operating with lower inventory. More nimble response to demand.
what are you seeing from homebuyers from a traffic perspective over these past few weeks
Show response
Traffic still decent but requires more incentives to convert. March and April sales pace better than February. First-time buyers less market-sensitive.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I just want to get some color around your confidence in that step-up in closings
Show response
Confident in housing and lot inventory position. Spring selling season needs to deliver. Positioned to achieve 90-92K guide.
is that second quarter margin guide assuming that the margin on homes, I guess, sold and closed during Q2 would be similar to December or lower
Show response
Q2 margin expected perhaps a bit lower than December given 7% rate environment. But spring historically brings better selling season.
Calendar 2024 Q3
that ratio is maybe a little bit higher than it typically is and during a year. So is there kind of an expectation for maybe a bigger ramp in starts
Show response
Management explained both improved cycle times and expected starts ramp into spring will support the delivery target.
what was your home size down in Q4? And kind of what is the expectation for home sizes that you're embedding in 2025
Show response
Square footage down 1% sequentially and YoY. Attached product at roughly 15% of closings. Continued lean toward smaller product for affordability.
MASMasco14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I guess the question is this kind of onetime? Or should we assume that this is kind of all gone by Q3?
Show response
Confirmed one-time and isolated to Q2 2026 but gave no sizing or timeline for the expected return.
So just curious what you're assuming from a raw material perspective going forward and sort of timing of all that.
Show response
Gave the specific assumption: low single-digit inflation in the first half stepping to mid-single digits for both segments.
Calendar 2026 Q1
have you sort of seen any changes either from a consumer perspective
Show response
Jon confirmed no dramatic demand change in Europe to date. Commodity pressure present similar to North America. China remains the challenging market. Europe holding in well with Hansgrohe gaining share.
you would still need a lot more deceleration in either as soon as Q2 or perhaps even a negative comp at some point just to kind of hit that guide
Show response
Jon attributed maintained guidance to geopolitical/macro uncertainty including oil shock impact on economy and consumer. No meaningful demand change observed yet. Rick noted pricing comps get tougher in H2 as mid-2025 price increases anniversary.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Maybe just a quick question there around how you are embedding that into your guidance for plumbing margin expansion in 2026 and maybe the sort of timing of that commodity impact
Show response
Rick confirmed mid-single-digit commodity inflation in Q4 and baked into 2026 guide. Six-month lag from spot to P&L. Copper at ~$6/lb COMEX not fully contemplated but team has demonstrated ability to offset through cost/pricing actions.
can you speak a little bit about what you are expecting to kind of flow through in 2026? Any kind of early reads on your initial January pricing actions
Show response
Rick confirmed mid-single-digit pricing benefit expected for full-year 2026. As mitigation actions were implemented mid-2025, YoY comparisons will moderate through 2026. Jon emphasized strategic revenue management discipline and continued share gains alongside pricing.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I'm wondering if there was maybe a pre-buy there earlier in the year or just kind of more elasticity related to price increases in that category
Show response
Rick attributed builders hardware decline to industry softness plus a planned shipping process change that curtailed Q3 shipments. Not expected to be a significant full-year impact.
was there anything else that was effectively a surprise versus your own expectations? Did any of those incremental tariffs that were coming in the summer end up sneaking into the quarter there as a...
Show response
Rick isolated three Q3 margin drivers: (1) $15M from 145% China tariff window (anticipated), (2) softer industry volumes especially China, (3) higher-than-typical inventory reserves. Incremental new tariffs ($10M) are a Q4 event.
Calendar 2025 Q2
any just kind of high-level thoughts on your early priorities? What might you look to kind of tweak from a strategic perspective
Show response
Jon outlined focus on profitable top-line acceleration via digital (e-commerce, digital marketing, strategic revenue management). Strategy and portfolio unchanged. On listening tour during first 100 days.
any potential framework, dollar framework you can give us and how you would be thinking about mitigating those new tariffs coming
Show response
Rick declined to size potential copper or reciprocal tariff changes, citing uncertainty on HTS codes and final rates. Committed to transparency once impacts are known.
Calendar 2025 Q1
was that mitigating the entire $675 million or just the $400 million of in-year costs
Show response
Rick clarified targeting full $675M annualized mitigation by end of 2026. In 2026, mitigation leans more heavily into sourcing footprint changes vs pricing/cost.
do you view any kind of change to the structural profitability potential of the business or is it just simply the former where there's too much uncertainty
Show response
Keith firmly stated no structural change to profitability potential. Pipeline of cost initiatives very solid. Characterized uncertainty as timing issue, not capability issue.
Calendar 2024 Q4
do you start thinking it's just something more structural around the industry kind of going back to do it for me
Show response
Keith acknowledged some structural shift from baby boomers aging into do-it-for-me, but countered with millennial formations favoring DIY paint as low-cost, high-impact home project.
My question is on the mitigation. If that's mainly sourcing or operational or if there's any assumption of kind of incremental price
Show response
Rick described combination of sourcing shifts, supplier negotiations, and pricing but declined to quantify specific components. Confirmed net tariff impact factored into guidance.
BLDRBuilders FirstSource12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
is there a scenario where you might see more assets come to market and, and how would you be looking to approach that?
Show response
Jackson confirmed an active pipeline and said elevated leverage is cycle-driven rather than debt-driven, so it does not constrain deal appetite.
Maybe you can update us on their pushback versus the sort of vendor price increases that we’re seeing out there.
Show response
Jackson walked category by category, noting petroleum-linked pass-through, flat pricing in most lines, and continued YoY declines in EWP and some millwork.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is there any more room to press on that? And how are you thinking about the balance of hanging on to cost, hanging on to labor
Show response
CEO said primary focus remains variable costs matching people to work. Need to digest current actions before taking another pass. Will continue evaluating as year progresses. Nothing new announced.
My question is really is any 1 of those, the biggest issue? Or maybe you can kind of rank order the drivers of that change?
Show response
CEO rank-ordered: specialty products biggest driver, inflationary fuel impact second, then starts impact/competitive dynamics/mix roughly comparable in magnitude.
Calendar 2025 Q3
it jumps out a little that it's a different number than what you gave at the Investor Day a couple of years ago. I guess, the revenue number would look to be the main difference there.
Show response
CEO explained different starting points, smaller home sizes, content per home, and share dynamics vs Investor Day. Emphasized market recovery doesn't take much to generate meaningfully better numbers.
it seems like you're implying kind of maybe a mid- to high 9% EBITDA margin at the midpoint versus this year, obviously, 10.6% to 11.1%. Is that because you're, I guess, implying exiting this year ...
Show response
CEO attributed to exit margin levels and competitive dynamics, not SAP. Believes approaching bottom on margins. Real question is when turn happens.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I think this is the first quarter where your gross margins were actually higher sequentially, perhaps since 2023, which at least surprised us
Show response
CFO attributed 20bps sequential improvement to better-than-expected multifamily and R&R performance, worth about $8M. Still expects sequential declines through rest of year.
be curious if you can speak a little more where, I guess, specifically or even provide examples of how you are strengthening your competitive position and partnering with your builder customers
Show response
CEO gave detailed answer on OTIF performance, product substitutions, digital twin optimization, vendor partnerships and capacity positioning for eventual recovery.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Your single-family was down 6% even with presumably still being impacted by less dollar content per home. So -- however, you look at it, it is a really notable change in terms of your growth versus...
Show response
CEO confirmed commitment to share growth in any market. Described Q1 as culmination of hard work over the past year at the local market level.
your gross margin guide now does have 29% at the low end for this year. It begs the question of sort of where you are willing to go on the gross margin?
Show response
CFO confirmed margins drifting lower through year. CEO added normalization is mostly done, now hand-to-hand combat in specific markets.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you talked about that kind of mix of higher margin products, maybe it's lower value, but, you know, like EWP, solving challenges for builders
Show response
CFO confirmed value-add mix supports margins and the 30-32% range is reasonable. CEO added they plan to protect share while maintaining healthy margins.
organic revenues, core organic in 2025, I think you're speaking to sort of a very low single-digit decline if I back out the M&A
Show response
Management addressed market stability, affordability battles, and builder pace modulation directly. CFO added detail on home size stabilization and multifamily headwinds.
PHMPulteGroup12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
it seems like you're going to have a bigger step-up in the fourth quarter.
Show response
Management said the Q4 step-up was planned all year, driven by dirt sales built and closed in the fourth quarter.
could we actually suggest that you're now pointing towards the higher end of the margin range
Show response
Management pushed back on the high end, citing homes left to sell and elevated incentives, sticking to the 24.5-25.0% guide.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I am curious if there is actually an opportunity to do more build-for-rent, or is that given what you just said, the business is still too either cyclical or rate-sensitive
Show response
Marshall firmly stated BFR will not be a focus regardless of executive order outcome. Better capital deployment opportunities exist driving higher shareholder returns.
Just curious if you can kind of comment on the trends in both of those and maybe how quickly can the different types of incentives sort of respond
Show response
Ossowski confirmed financing incentives flat for 3-4 quarters; Q4 increase driven by spec price discounts. Hope to pull back on discount lever as spec levels normalize in spring.
Calendar 2025 Q3
what maybe some of those actionable solutions could potentially be
Show response
Marshall declined to elaborate extensively, noting the structural housing shortage is rooted in local politics and will take coordinated federal, state, and local effort to address.
is this more of kind of a market-driven approach just simply saying, look, this is where the demand is better today for quicker move-in homes?
Show response
Marshall clarified 50% spec is mathematical result of fewer BTO sales, not a strategic shift. Actual spec units are down, and the company remains focused on increasing dirt sales.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how do move-up margins compare versus active adult margins? And, I guess, any additional color on how that mix of your product types may affect the gross margins
Show response
Marshall quantified margin differentials: move-up +200bp above first-time, active adult +200bp above move-up. Del Webb returning to 24-25% of closings in 2026.
My question is if there is room for you guys to drive construction costs lower at some point. And, you know, if so, when might we begin to see that?
Show response
Ossowski noted $79/sqft reflects 6-month-old contracts; teams pushing for reductions but increases in some categories offsetting decreases in others.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what does that signal around your growth intentions perhaps into 2026? Would a portion of that land spend be impacting community growth as soon as next year?
Show response
Marshall emphasized land spend reduction is deferral not cancellation, 244K controlled lots sufficient for growth, and $5B may buy as much as $5.5B if land prices ease.
the March quarter incentives came up 80 basis points sequentially, during generally a seasonally stronger time for housing demand
Show response
Ossowski explained that as spec inventory approaches target range, incentive pressure should ease, offsetting the seasonal headwind in summer months.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Would that signal that we have not found an equilibrium so the incentives would need to move higher to move those homes?
Show response
Marshall expressed confidence that Q4 exit-rate incentives combined with spring selling season and healthy economy are sufficient to deliver margin guidance.
just, I guess, to have flat or nearly flat gross margins going forward, I guess everything else needs to be kind of flat or offsetting each other sequentially
Show response
Marshall confirmed ASP increase of approximately 3% is sufficient to offset combined land and construction cost inflation in the margin guide.
FERGFerguson plc9 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Can see your commercial mechanical up 15% on that 20% prior year comp.
Show response
Bill directly addressed backlog and order build across commercial mechanical, industrial and waterworks.
inflation, I guess the deceleration to low-single-digit from mid-single-digits.
Show response
Bill separated finished-goods inflation compression from continued PVC deflation with specifics.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I'm curious if you could kind of give us any color on the November or quarter to date results
Show response
Kevin gave calendar-Q4-to-date growth of ~3% and said early 2026 looks similar, but deferred formal calendar 2026 guidance to February.
you're able to quantify, perhaps what portion of the business, that is for you today
Show response
Bill quantified large capital projects at mid-to-high single digits of revenue with data centers over half, and flagged likely lumpiness given long project gestation.
Calendar 2025 Q3
anything around kind of data center and what the pipeline going forward of these large capital projects
Show response
Kevin confirmed accelerating data-center construction with no pauses or cancellations, stepping up across multiple geographies.
looking ahead, kind of thinking about this mid-single-digit growth for the total calendar year
Show response
Kevin addressed the mid-single-digit calendar guide, flagging softer H2 growth on residential weakness while large capital projects sustain non-res.
Calendar 2025 Q1
So, basically, where are we in the cycle of these growth investments?
Show response
Bill quantified Q2 cost growth at ~5.5%, mostly from 5% volume; FTE headcount roughly flat YoY, ~20bps underlying OpEx step-up; cost actions to slow growth in H2.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Is there a scenario where you would either pull back on that, depending on how the end markets end up shaking out
Show response
Management said investments (trainee class, HVAC rollout) are somewhat front-loaded with returns over time, and they would take cost-reduction actions only if volumes turn negative, which they do not expect.
are you still seeing any kind of sequential declines in commodity, or has it been a little more stable?
Show response
CFO said finished-goods pricing (about 85% of revenue) was flat in Q1 and should reach low-single-digit inflation in the back half; steel pipe and PVC remain under pressure while copper returned to inflation.
LENLennar2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
I'm just curious if you can update us on the cancellations environment a little bit
Show response
Jon confirmed cancellation pace has remained consistent from Q2 to Q3, with no effect yet from late-quarter rate declines. Adjustments continue community-by-community to support affordability-challenged buyers.
do you anticipate kind of maintaining some level of these buydowns as kind of a competitive advantage sort of structurally versus the resale market?
Show response
Stuart explained that lower market rates unlock the existing home ecosystem as a flywheel, enabling move-up activity across the entire housing market, the incentive value extends beyond just the rate buydown cost.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| DHI D. R. Horton | 16 | 13%2 of 16 questions |
| MAS Masco | 14 | 7%1 of 14 questions |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| PHM PulteGroup | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| FERG Ferguson plc | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions |
| LEN Lennar | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- DHID. R. Horton · 16 questions13%2 of 16 questions
- MASMasco · 14 questions7%1 of 14 questions
- BLDRBuilders FirstSource · 12 questions17%2 of 12 questions
- PHMPulteGroup · 12 questions17%2 of 12 questions
- FERGFerguson plc · 9 questions0%none of 9 questions
- LENLennar · 2 questions—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q1 | 9 | 33%3 of 9 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q2 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 12 | 8%1 of 12 questions | 6 |
| 2025 Q4 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q1 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 4 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q410 questions · challenge rate 10% (1 of 10 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q19 questions · challenge rate 33% (3 of 9 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q28 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q312 questions · challenge rate 8% (1 of 12 questions) · 6 companies
- 2025 Q48 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q18 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q28 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 4 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand18
- Pricing18
- Margin17
- Cost Pressure13
- Guidance Reliability12
- Competitive Dynamics11
- Capex Investment6
- Supply Chain5
- Revenue Growth5
- Macroeconomic5
Show all 18 topics
- Trade Tariffs5
- Inventory4
- Credit2
- Regulation Policy2
- Innovation & R&D2
- M&A1
- Capital Allocation1
- Geographic Expansion1