Max Gumport

Foley and Gabriel cited a resiliency focus and an expanded CCI program, which drove much of the 2026 gross margin expansion.

Gabriel cited inventory days and payables as the main drivers of the first-half cash flow of $431 million.

Gabriel pushed back that guidance is full-year only and cited Q3/Q4 brand-marketing phasing rather than a fundamental change.

Marcos said both businesses justified parity multiple of 13.8x given complementary strengths: Unilever Foods brings scale and healthy margins, McCormick brings differentiated volume growth and advantaged category position.

Fernando said no revenue dis-synergies expected. Unilever Foods business already operates as stand-alone with own manufacturing, operations, and logistics. No fundamental dis-synergies identified on either side.

Marcos clarified: FY2025 gross tariff $70M, mitigated $50M, net $20M. FY2026 annualized $70M (coincidentally same), but with $20M already in base, incremental year-over-year impact is $50M. Expects to fully offset the $50M incremental in FY2026.

Marcos confirmed Q1 EPS at mid-to-high end of guidance despite OP being slightly below due to partial McCormick de Mexico inclusion. Different equation between OP and EPS in Q1, then alignment Q2-Q4.

Marcos said working capital usage from raw materials inventory purchases is expected to normalize. Q4 is biggest quarter for both P&L and cash. Expects very strong cash flow performance for full year 2025.

Brendan attributed gap between scanner deceleration and strong Consumer Americas results to acceleration in unmeasured channels: e-commerce, club stores, and strong Canadian business. E-commerce growing as percentage of total net sales quarter by quarter.

Brendan described reformulation acceleration as net incremental to normal innovation activity. Driven by H&W trends across large and small customers. Win rate on these briefs strong but timing of revenue benefit hard to predict.

Brendan confirmed Investor Day FY28 targets still stand. Acknowledged need to modify plans in near term but hasn't changed long-term game plan.

Brendan said snacking weakness combines financial pressure and preference shifts toward protein-based/better-for-you options. McCormick gaining share in multiple snacking sub-segments. Consumer sentiment recently impacted by inflation fears.

Marcos described strategic commodity buying as business as usual, leveraging data-driven procurement analysis to lock in favorable costs and protect supply chain service levels.

Brendan attributed consumer strength to healthy category growth, early execution in 2024, focus on fast-growing segments like heat, and making categories like mustard more relevant to consumers.

Gumport probed for unplanned Q3 merchandising pull-forward into Q2; Kirk confirmed a little over 1 point, offset by an extra Q4 shipping day. Direct.

Kirk cited confection as relatively insulated vs other food categories. About 40 calories per day, 2-3 servings per week for average American. Adoption rates well contemplated in outlook.

Steve said being cautious given price pack architecture still hitting shelves and elasticities can move. Will reassess guidance at midyear mark with better visibility.

Kirk cited confection's historical resilience and emotional consumer connection. US category highly differentiated with strong brands vs European tablet/private label. Salty positioned in growth areas: permissible, better-for-you, portion control.

Kirk differentiated US from Europe: more brand differentiation, variety across portfolio, top players with higher market share. Europe has chocolate tablet bars and private label concentration. US skews mainstream and affordable vs European premium skew.

Steve confirmed double-digit everyday CMG growth in last 4 weeks with no concerns on elasticity. More to play out.

Kirk noted different cadences vs historical lockstep but no concern. Steve added significant portion of HSY pricing was catching up to earlier competitor moves. Category remains rational.

Steve noted pricing doesn't fully compensate for cocoa inflation to date. Other levers needed: smart complexity, increased transformation savings. Relief in tariffs or cocoa could drive above-algorithm.

Steve confirmed big innovation calendar, Olympics, Hershey movie tentpole events fully funded. Will be agile if elasticities differ from expectations.

Michele noted confection categories resilient despite weak consumer. Everyday chocolate pricing up 8%, volume down 4.5% showing strong elasticity.

Steve clarified apparent EBITDA improvement is just rounding, no fundamental change to base business outlook.

Steve identified Brazil and Mexico as most competitive markets. Q4 helped by favorable lap and Black Friday; full-year international up about a point.

Michele noted greater elasticities assumed for international where HSY is not market leader. Smaller impact given segment size.

Smucker credited fridge-friendly, price-pack architecture, new flavors and distribution gains for the reacceleration.

Mark described peanut butter category behavior as mostly rational and softness as weather-driven, not structural.

Mark said the full Uncrustables portfolio transitions to fridge friendly by mid summer; Tucker framed mid single digit growth.

Mark confident in Uncrustables: C-store sales tripled, 3.5M new households added, remained category leader despite store brand entrants. Innovation, merchandising, and marketing continue to drive growth.

Tucker declines to set revised margin target now. Acknowledges profitability below expectations especially in Q3. Q4 should improve. Will provide updated profit trajectory at Q4 earnings.

Tucker confirms: $75M tariff impact is total FY2026 and essentially all coffee-related.

Mark confirms volume decline is lap-driven. Private label and other competition entering category is largely supportive long-term. Household penetration gains and marketing continue to drive growth.

Mark explains portfolio protection: coffee/beverages/pet not impacted areas. Uncrustables consumers are athletes/families/universities. Snacking trends show 70% still snacking twice daily.

Tucker explains: $100M coffee upside from better elasticity = $0.20 benefit, but tariffs above 10% create $0.25 headwind, netting coffee back to original profit plan. Good story but external factors offset.

Tucker clarifies: flat coffee was Q3-specific, not full H2. Q4 will show growth. Second pricing round effects being monitored.

Tucker focuses on Meow Mix strength and promotional restoration post-supply recovery rather than directly addressing competitive dynamics.

Gumport asked whether the reaffirmed outlook embeds conservatism given the Q1 beat; Marberger walked through puts and takes and said it was prudent to hold the year.

Brase returned to balance and the power of the frozen portfolio across the value spectrum, but did not commit to a timeline for stabilizing volumes.

Dave declined to size the absorption headwind specifically but indicated Q3 gross margin similar to Q2, with Q3 operating margin driven lower by A&P exceeding 3% of sales and higher SG&A.

Sean reiterated five margin recovery building blocks: 5% productivity, eventual 2% normalized inflation, chicken plant repatriation, targeted pricing, and Project Catalyst. Expressed confidence in clawing north on gross margin.

Sean differentiated between growth businesses (frozen/snacks, avoid volume declines) and cash businesses (canned, maximize cash). Dave added context on absorption headwinds from chicken plant investments becoming a tailwind in FY2027.

Sean walked through the full inflation cycle mechanics: lag → pricing → profit clawback → volume investment. Listed margin recovery building blocks for FY2027: productivity, inflation relief, chicken repatriation, pricing, new AI business process initiative.

Sean attributed outperformance to protein-centric portfolio (meat snacks, popcorn, seeds) benefiting from consumer shift away from traditional chips. FATTY now fully integrated.

Sean indicated it's both category growth and share gains, particularly in frozen and snacks domains.

Sean differentiated drivers by domain: frozen driven by shallow discounts and display execution, snacks driven by protein/convenience macro trend.

Dana said the stressed consumer is still waiting to buy on sale at a pace similar to last year's back half, which was assumed in this year's guidance.

Harmening framed it as step two of a two-step plan: fix base pricing first, then let innovation and marketing work harder.

McNabb said they assume the pressured consumer and category backdrop continue and are focused on controllables.

Kofi confirmed Q2 outperformance from supply chain favorability, international timing, and ~0.5pt NAR shipment timing will all reverse in Q3.

Dana confirmed 2/3 of portfolio had price investments completed by end of Q2, with almost 90% at or ahead of model; not planning additional pricing now but will monitor.

CEO explained volume will lead dollar share in H1 as pricing laps, then dollar share catches up in H2 as marketing, innovation, and core news layer on top.

CEO declined to quantify Fresh Pet investment but emphasized commitment to spend what's required for trial generation given strong repeat rates.

CEO noted a 5-point drag from pet retailer inventory drawdown in Q3, primarily in dry dog food, but confirmed year-to-date inventory is roughly flat.

John described a strained, value-seeking consumer and positioned Hormel's protein-centric portfolio as well suited, but assumed a choppy backdrop persists.

John reaffirmed the dividend as the priority and signaled openness to strategic M&A given balance-sheet flexibility.

Ettinger said the outperformance was almost all performance-based, with some conservatism in the initial plan and SG&A benefits starting in Q2.

Paul noted FY2026 tariff range $25-35M mainly steel and aluminum. Cashews exempted from reciprocal tariffs recently. Company fairly insulated overall. Comparable to FY2025 1-2 cent range on full-year basis.

Jeff cited Q1 starting in a hole (implied rest of year much higher than 7% midpoint), and retail pricing decisions where not all commodity cost is passed through to protect brand health long-term. Some categories intentionally underpriced vs cost to maintain consumer engagement.

Jim reiterated flywheel concept but deferred specific breakdown of $200M+ target, suggesting Jacinth could walk through offline. Key message was on-track status.

Jacinth confirmed all drivers to high-end intact (volume, mix, Planters, T&M, marketing returns). Turkey is the only variable that could shift positioning within the range.

Jacinth clarified $250M is net of reinvestment and inflation. Jim pointed to T&M acceleration continuing into FY26 with benefits extending beyond. Specifics remained vague.