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Analyst
Myles Walton
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 98on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 15%15 of 98 questions
- Companies
- 11questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 98 of 98 questions from 11 companies
GDGeneral Dynamics14 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 14 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
What does your M&A pipeline look like? What kind of properties would even be attractive to you at this point?
Show response
Phebe declined outright, calling M&A discussion imprudent while confirming it remains under continuous consideration.
Have you seen in Combat, within OTS, much of that coming your way on second-source solid-rocket motors
Show response
Danny clarified GD is a subcontractor supplying actuators, motor cases and guidance systems with mirrored ramp agreements.
Would you say there's any shift in the way you look at it, even if you can't speak to it?
Show response
Phebe said the approach is unchanged, framed around meeting cash obligations first and opportunistic bolt-ons.
Calendar 2026 Q1
where does capacity currently fit for large cabin production at this point on an annual basis
Show response
Danny said demand and backlog support production increases but the limiting factor is supply chain ramp. Capacity is being put in place; timing depends on suppliers.
is it still contemplating $40 million or north thereof after the Supreme Court and 232 and all the other changes that have taken place
Show response
Danny clarified neither Q1 2025 nor Q1 2026 had material tariff impact. The $41 million was Q4 2025. No change in tariff assumptions going forward.
Calendar 2025 Q4
You've previously given medium-term margin expansion sort of color for Aerospace. I was curious if you could maybe update those margin outlook targets
Show response
Novakovic confirmed margin headroom exists at Gulfstream but declined to reaffirm specific mid-to-high teens target, emphasized execution-driven improvement with 'lots of puts and takes' including costs and pricing opportunities
is the Combat growth in '26 absorbing much of any headwind on the Ajax program, if you could size that
Show response
Rejected Ajax headwind characterization, described a fielding pause rather than a headwind, expressed high confidence in the vehicle citing tens of thousands of miles of testing
Calendar 2025 Q3
how much of this do you think is customers seeing that delivery pace is sort of coming together, realizing that they better get in line
Show response
Attributed order strength to multiple factors including economic strength, new models, improving delivery cadence, with demand across the portfolio led by G800
Calendar 2025 Q2
are you feeling more confident in seeing a book-to-bill at or above 1x for 2025 at this point?
Show response
Maintained approximately 1x book-to-bill expectation despite strong first-half demand, confirmed demand carrying into Q3
you mentioned margin pressure in 2028 from the G280
Show response
Acknowledged G400 timing slowed slightly due to workload capacity, clarified not FAA-related, declined to give specific entry-into-service estimate
Calendar 2025 Q1
your confidence that you alluded to in the full year outlook. Is that encompassing your assessment of what you're going to see?
Show response
Characterized defense as largely insulated from tariffs with limited Gulfstream exposure, declined to provide specifics citing high probability of being wrong
Is there anything you're seeing as it relates to your combat business and their view on the role of the Army
Show response
Noted CR underfunded Stryker/Abrams by about a third, but highlighted strong Army interest in accelerating next-generation Abrams modernization
Calendar 2024 Q4
I was expecting a little bit of working capital relief at Aerospace
Show response
Confirmed continued working capital build at Gulfstream due to G800/G400 certification, with unwinding expected by late 2025 or earlier
it seems like those causes are the same as what we talked about in the third quarter
Show response
Identified engine-less induction into completion centers as a key factor not disclosed in Q3, acknowledged decision proved detrimental to cost and schedule
TDGTransDigm Group12 questions · 8 reporting periods · 3 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
could you comment on what you saw actually in the almost full quarter of ownership of growth
Show response
Mike declined to break out Jet Parts/Victor Sierra growth specifically, saying their inclusion does not materially change reported growth and both are growing a bit ahead of the components landscape.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Of the, $210 million EBITDA raise, is about $50 million of that from the PMA acquisitions that have closed?
Show response
Mike declined an exact acquisition breakout but said 70-80% of the raise came from base-business performance, and attributed the 52.4% to 52.6% sequential margin move to normal mix noise.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Just one clarification on the 7.4% overall company organic growth versus the subsectors
Show response
Sarah confirmed market segment growth rates include Simmonds pro forma contribution. Delta between 7.4% organic and segment growth also reflects lower non-aerospace segment dragging the average.
that's been running double digits now for the last several years, every quarter
Show response
Mike explained POS channel overweights engine which drives the double-digit number. In FY2025, distributor inventory changes created 1-2pp headwind on overall commercial aftermarket. Headwind persisted into Q1 but should turn to tailwind as year progresses. Patrick said engine and airframe submarkets solid, biz jet lighter.
Calendar 2025 Q3
CapEx looks like it's set to double over the last couple of years
Show response
Joel said headcount flat is on a pro forma basis including Simmonds. CapEx is a combination of capacity and cost reduction projects. Automation is used to do current work with fewer people, higher yields, and to in-source outside work.
Calendar 2025 Q2
on the aftermarket, was there a sequential decline and it's unusual, I think, for your third quarter to see that
Show response
Mike said aftermarket was about flat sequentially Q2 to Q3. Distributor POS outpaced commercial aftermarket, up in double digits, tracking ahead of the 6% overall rate.
Did you, in any way, adjust that for the age of the aircraft that are obviously older now proportionally and out of warranty more proportionately?
Show response
Mike confirmed the 4-year look-back was a volume-for-volume comparison, not adjusted for fleet age. Fleet is weighted up about 1.5 years in age but they didn't adjust for that.
Calendar 2025 Q1
was it more on the business shed and helicopter bookings? It almost sounded like you were more confident in what you were seeing at Boeing
Show response
Kevin confirmed OEM guide nudged down due to helicopter weakness, not commercial transport. Boeing side showed good progress on bookings.
this is the second quarter you've reiterated, I think the longest stretch without a raise in a while
Show response
Kevin said guidance approach unchanged from prior years. Slight tweaks by submarket netted to a push on overall guidance. Same conservatism as always.
Calendar 2024 Q4
In the first quarter margins were expected to be down sequentially. They were, obviously, they were up sequentially
Show response
Sarah attributed margin beat to significant mix shift from OEM to aftermarket and productivity projects. Contract loss amortization was lumpy Esterline-related timing.
Calendar 2024 Q3
distribution and aftermarket channel had close to 20% growth in the fourth quarter
Show response
Mike called POS data uncorrelated to total aftermarket on quarterly basis. Kevin noted distribution is 20-25% of total aftermarket and likely a leading indicator.
does that mean you've assumed roughly flat Boeing output from you guys year-on-year with some price and then Airbus growth
Show response
Mike would not confirm specific Boeing rate assumptions but emphasized conservative OEM guidance and readiness to step up if demand is stronger.
TXTTextron12 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
First, a clarification, if you could, David, on the tariff relief. Can you just size that?
Show response
CFO gave both gross and net tariff refund figures and located them precisely in the Industrial segment.
Calendar 2026 Q1
can you speak to the market environment for order activity and anything that's changing given the ongoing Middle East conflicts. And then, Lisa, you mentioned repositioning some of your R&D funding...
Show response
Atherton reported best Q1 bookings in 4 years. Aviation backlog at $8B with strong Q2 pipeline. R&D reallocation means maintaining same investment levels but shifting portion toward factory effectiveness, tools and capabilities to improve factory flow and production output.
Calendar 2025 Q4
do you think, your limiting function to getting to higher production rates? And where are you in that recovery of supply chain control
Show response
Atherton identified two constraints: supply chain (engines specifically called out as laggard) and early workforce attrition. Created in-house training program. Rosenberg added that 2025 efficiency gains fell short of expectations, reflected in 2026 guidance but representing upside opportunity.
on the CapEx for '26. Is that spike expected to continue beyond '26
Show response
Rosenberg said elevated CapEx in 2026-2027 then normalizes. This is a two-year pull-forward of investment that would have occurred in 2028-2029, entirely driven by MV-75 acceleration.
Calendar 2025 Q3
on the Aviation side, can you comment on the supply chain and how that's coming along and whether or not that's an impediment to hitting the $6.1 billion rev placeholder within the forecast
Show response
Donnelly said fewer problem part numbers but some critical suppliers still hand-to-mouth. Creates production inefficiency and out-of-station work. Confident in path to $6.1 billion despite challenges.
great bookings. Is this the point of inflection for growth after a long time of relatively flat revenue
Show response
Donnelly confirmed Systems hitting growth inflection point. ATAC winning new programs, Ship-to-Shore executing well, Sentinel growing. Growth in rest of business overcoming RCV/FTUAS program losses.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is there any interest given the attention of the administration and the [ Sec Def ] on the smaller drone market for higher levels of investment at Textron
Show response
Donnelly acknowledged R&D activity in smaller drone classes but declined to provide specifics.
Is there any update you can offer on that certification? It does seem like the FAA maybe is moving along with things
Show response
Donnelly said they believe they're in final stages with documentation going back and forth but certification is an FAA action.
Calendar 2025 Q1
could you give some color as to the larger use of cash and operating cash flow from the other category
Show response
Rosenberg attributed cash use to Aviation inventory build and Bell military payment timing expected to reverse in Q2.
it looks like it declined sequentially about in line with your sales. And so maybe, Scott, back to Rob's question or maybe it was Peter's question on the demand
Show response
Donnelly said no debooks, just lumpy timing of contract definitizations. Ship-to-Shore in CR but not yet in backlog.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How sensitive to this year are the outcomes on those programs for your outlook for systems top line of $1.3 billion
Show response
Donnelly said FTUAS and RCV decisions are more important for FY2026+ growth trajectory than near-term FY2025 revenue.
On R&D, I know you started off the year with a $550 million number for R&D, it came in at $490 million. I'm curious to the underrun
Show response
Donnelly said R&D decline was driven by FLRAA transitioning from development to EMD. FY2025 $500M is a good normalized run rate.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 5 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
I was wondering if you could comment on the reports about the Navy revisiting the carrier design and what, if any, impact that might have
Show response
Kastner not worried about carrier design review; said such reviews happen periodically and typically confirm the platform's capability. CVN 82 long-lead expected this year. Wilkinson added that incorporating new capabilities across ship classes is routine.
Should we expect the workforce size to start to grow in line with the sales growth or at least a trend in line with the sales growth
Show response
Kastner confirmed labor headcount will start trending up. Outsourcing will carry a significant part of the growth but not entirely. Need to account for contractor workforce as well.
Calendar 2025 Q4
you're benefiting by another $20 million runoff in amortization. Which would imply, you know, an 80 basis point step down in EBITDA margins
Show response
Stiehle clarified amortization runoff is ~$10M (not $20M). Rest of improvement from contract performance, potential fee write-ups, and nuclear business equity income scores. EBITDA margin guide of 8.4-8.6% represents incremental improvement from 2025's 8.6%.
You hired 6,600 shipbuilders. I think you got another 500 employees from W International's acquisition. I also think that you finished headcount flat versus the start of the year.
Show response
Kastner confirmed 15-18% attrition improvement YoY. The 44,000 employee count includes support labor and MT. Shipyard headcount ended where expected. Need to continue improving attrition and expanding distributed shipbuilding.
Calendar 2025 Q3
on the cash flow flatness implied in 2026, maybe just give us a little bit of a color there. Obviously, an assumption that earnings will grow, CapEx, I would have thought maybe steps down a tad.
Show response
Stiehle said the 2-year $1.2B FCF guide (~$600M each year) is conservative for 2026. Many moving parts including working capital, CapEx, and receipt timing. Will provide more detail in February. Higher top line and incremental profitability will drive cash flow inflection toward $700-800M in the medium to long term.
the President has recently quoted saying he's going to have an executive order moving aircraft carrier designs back to steam from emails. I'm just curious, what carrier could that cut over into if ...
Show response
Kastner declined to comment directly on potential executive order. Said HII would work with the Navy on any design changes in the most intelligent way possible.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I was wondering if you could touch on your views of AUKUS and its trajectory. It seems like it may be getting a relook
Show response
AUKUS still broadly supported despite Pentagon review. HII has footprint in Australia through Babcock partnership with good wins. HHI Korea partnership exploring defense and commercial opportunities.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you comment on where you are with respect to that and sort of how the performance quality is looking from what you're outsourcing
Show response
Outsourcing on schedule at both yards with good quality. Pilot programs used to verify performance before scaling. Lessons learned from early 2000s Ingalls outsourcing failures.
could you start by talking a little bit about the workforce and how it trended in the first quarter? I think you probably picked up about 500 employees with W International
Show response
Hired 1,000 in Q1, slightly below target. Attrition down in both shipyards but not yet at pre-COVID levels. Strategy shift to experienced hires is working.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how much are you assuming is going to happen in the booking rate versus when those things happen, the margins will progress higher
Show response
Kastner essentially confirmed Q1 at 5.5% reflects current run-rate before improvements. Uplift depends on contract awards, cost reductions, and throughput initiatives.
You're relinquishing some control and quality control in particular. How do you weigh that
Show response
Management acknowledged outsourcing risk but noted they use existing partners, run pilot projects first, and have learned from past outsourcing failures.
NOCNorthrop Grumman9 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Can you describe where Northrop is planning to compete either as a prime or supplier within space based AMTI
Show response
Kathy called space-based AMTI an attractive market where NOC has capability and is eyeing future requirement tranches without committing to bids yet.
size of the positive adjustment on Sentinel in the quarter. That effectively offset by the higher investment in ARGEM
Show response
John validated the framing but declined to break out the Sentinel adjustment, saying it was not material enough to disclose separately.
Calendar 2025 Q4
was there any net effect in the shutdown on the numbers whether in the p and l or the cash statement in the fourth quarter
Show response
Crews confirmed no material shutdown impact on Q4. Warden said company already preparing for accelerated growth: moving with speed, building capacity, preserving cash. Called it most robust demand environment in her career.
Calendar 2025 Q3
In terms of the fourth quarter implied sequential revenue growth, looks like Aero is carrying most of that load. Are there extra working days
Show response
Crews cited three drivers: B-21 inventory liquidations from new awards, TACOMO production ramp, and mature program material delivery timing. One extra working day is minor.
Calendar 2025 Q2
you mentioned the opening remarks, but around space-based interceptors that you were testing currently. Are you actually testing on orbit
Show response
Warden clarified tests are ground-based, not orbital. Competitive restrictions limit detail but Northrop believes capability can be accelerated to administration timeline.
I think the R&D capitalization reversal you said is a couple hundred million dollar benefit. Is that in addition to the absence of the $250 million headwind
Show response
Crews confirmed $200M additional cash tax benefit from reconciliation is the incremental change to the FCF guidance range.
Calendar 2025 Q1
doesn't sound like those orders are under contract yet, and you're looking for another decline year-on-year in the second quarter
Show response
Crews cited three drivers: late-2024 awards (TACOMO, IBCS) ramping, planned backlog growth on Sentinel/weapons/sensors, and expected new space competitive wins.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I don't think I heard F/A-XX. I'm just curious, Kathy or Ken, how are you feeling about the timing and potential for Northrop to be a participant
Show response
Warden confirmed Northrop is in the Navy F/A-XX source selection but couldn't elaborate due to procurement restrictions.
There have -- there has been a $4 billion target for 2028. Does the trajectory still align with that $4 billion 2028 target
Show response
Crews directly confirmed the $4 billion 2028 free cash flow target remains on track with no changes.
HWMHowmet Aerospace8 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
are you, John, starting to see the pull on the wide-body yet? Or is this the commentary more positive at this point?
Show response
John confirmed early demand pull on the 787 toward Rate 9-10 by late 2027, with broad-based fastener demand across commercial, defense and drone platforms.
Can you update us where you are in the cutovers of the LEAP-1A/1B and GTF Advantage?
Show response
John said the LEAP-1A/1B blade cutover will likely fall in early 2027, with legacy blades at full volume through 2026 plus a large aftermarket retrofit opportunity.
Calendar 2026 Q1
could you comment on where you are relative to capacity on the gas side
Show response
Plant acknowledged capacity constrained in H1 2026, growth from yield improvements and flow production. New Japan plant casting furnaces ready July-August, first production Q4. Progressive quarterly increases through 2026 into 2027.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the end market implied growth in your $9 billion, could you share that as well as perhaps you've been running, obviously, well ahead of long-term incrementals
Show response
Plant detailed 2026 outlook: commercial aero up a few percentage points, defense mid-single digits, industrial getting into double digits. 737 in the 40s, A320 early 60s, 787 at 7.5, A350 at 6.5-7.
Calendar 2025 Q2
you can comment on the rationalization of products within structures. How meaningful is that? Is it going to be to the margins
Show response
Plant confirmed most rationalization is done. Revenue growing while margins improved. Expects to maintain 20%+ Structures margins through the second half.
Calendar 2025 Q1
did you get much benefit in the quarter from the PCC fire tightness that’s likely been created? And have you closed on any share gain contracts
Show response
Plant said PCC fire impact minimal in Q1, with $20-30M in orders booked so far. Hundreds of parts still to quote. Total opportunity estimated at roughly $50M, well below $100M.
Calendar 2024 Q4
your implied guidance after the first quarter, it implies margins start to step down and certainly incrementals are half of what you're implying for the first quarter
Show response
Plant acknowledged conservatism driven by Boeing narrow body uncertainty, supply chain challenges, and new facility buildouts. Noted back-end loaded profile adds caution.
What is the headcount growth you're thinking about to match that expansion of capacity?
Show response
Plant gave a specific figure of ~1,000 net additions, lower than 2024, balanced with productivity improvements.
Show 5 more companies
BAThe Boeing Company7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
you mentioned 55% of the flight tests being complete. And I guess on the surface, it seems a little low
Show response
CEO explained the metric is certification credit on pre-run tests and flagged freed-up 737 test resources as the accelerant, while admitting TIA scope is a moving target.
Calendar 2026 Q1
could you speak to the free cash flow profile for the rest of the year, particularly if the second quarter can get close to breakeven
Show response
Malave provided specific Q2 guidance (low hundreds of millions outflow), confirmed back-half positive inflection from KC-46 advances and higher BCA deliveries. No meaningful Middle East deferral requests impacting cash flow outlook.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Could you just clarify the excess advances in customer considerations, the quantum of those, and then the duration by which they normalize
Show response
Malave declined to give individual breakouts but said excess advances and considerations are roughly equal. Advances burn down quicker than considerations. Total bridge items $6-7B aggregate.
Calendar 2025 Q3
what is the negative cash flow in 2026 on the 777X in totality or versus this year
Show response
Malave said 2026 heavy usage, 2027 better, 2028 closer to neutral, 2029 onward positive. Cash profile driven by delivery payments and advances ramping up.
Calendar 2025 Q2
can you lay out for us the $2 billion better performance here on free cash flow in the second quarter? How much of that should we translate
Show response
West confirmed ~$3B full-year FCF usage is reasonable, down from $4-5B prior guidance. Q2 benefited from 13 wide-body deliveries vs normal 6-7, driving $700M incremental cash.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I think in January you were expecting deliveries on the 37 in the low 400s and maybe 80 or so on the 787
Show response
West confirmed both delivery estimates intact. Strong operational start offsets most China pressure. Delivery timing won't disrupt production rate increases.
Calendar 2024 Q4
on the supply chain, and maybe the spirit integration, how key is that to your ability to get to 38 and then get above 38
Show response
Ortberg said Spirit is not a constraint for rate 38 and praised fuselage quality improvements. On 787, seats remain a challenge, especially Lufthansa deliveries with new configurations.
GEGE Aerospace7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
this free cash flow conversion performance, should we expect free cash flow to continue to grow as earnings grow from here
Show response
Ghai confirmed cash growth with earnings but flagged conversion should normalize from elevated levels.
Calendar 2026 Q1
what the strategy is for aeroderivatives and what the upside opportunity could be there for repricing and volume
Show response
Ghai explained current deliveries are burning pre-spin backlog at legacy pricing; post-spin pricing is substantially higher and will phase in over 18-24 months. Business sold out through early 2030s with CFM56 power generation adding another growth leg.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Are we crossing the root count of profit or breakeven in '26 still
Show response
Rahul confirmed LEAP OE profitability in 2026 on track. Larry said visibility has improved further and deeper into supply chain. Confident in satisfying both aftermarket and airframer demand through decade, though not expecting 40% supplier input growth every year.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Where and how do you balance capital deployment, share repurchase in particular at this point vis-a-vis your stock price
Show response
Larry reaffirmed balanced approach: reinvestment first, shareholder returns second, M&A third. Shareholder returns increased 4x since spin to $24B in 2024-2026 period. Highlighted $300M investment in BETA Technologies for hybrid electric turbo generator.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the pricing assumption through 2028, 2024 to 2028 and the low single-digit assumption there. What would that imply for the go-forward period
Show response
Larry explained mid-single-digit gross, low-single-digit net pricing on spare parts. Rahul detailed retirement assumptions based on Airbus/Boeing delivery targets creating 6-7% installed base growth vs low-single-digit departure growth.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is there anything structural going on with respect to the razor/razorblade model and making money maybe on new equipment?
Show response
Rahul confirmed no structural change to razor/razorblade. Equipment margins helped by profitable defense units and widebody OE platforms now in the black.
Calendar 2024 Q4
curious, just as you look at that sequential climb to '25, what in the base profit of '24 didn't translate into '25?
Show response
Rahul reframed the two-year profit improvement as a third above March 2024 expectations and broke down CES drivers, R&D step-up, and GE9X headwinds.
LHXL3Harris7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
you talked about pushing the IPO to mid-2027. Can you just give us some of the puts and takes behind that decision
Show response
Kubasik cited weak IPO market conditions and that most of the cash need hits in 2027-2029, so waiting is prudent.
Calendar 2026 Q1
you mentioned $25 billion of orders pending with the Munitions Acceleration Council
Show response
CEO explained framework agreement process with primes then conversion to contracts by year-end. Emphasized no production line breaks expected during negotiation period.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Is there a much bigger step up happening in the future to give a smaller step up than what I expected
Show response
Bedingfield described 35-40% CapEx increase to $600M while holding $3B FCF. Kubasik noted $500M+ already invested in AR since acquisition. One-time modernization of SRM production.
Calendar 2025 Q3
touch on your outlook for the Golden Dome space-based competitions that you're looking at from HBTSS to space-based Interceptor
Show response
Kubasik detailed HBTSS and SDA T3 award timeline depending on government reopening. Bedingfield confirmed SAS margin performance stabilizing but cautious on declaring victory.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how quickly can you get the HBTSS constellation contract under contract? And does that become revenue in '25?
Show response
Kubasik noted 60-day architecture study underway. Confident in reaching 2026 framework with or without T3 win through portfolio management approach.
Calendar 2025 Q1
some defense executives have had meetings with the president and sort of made direct appeals as it relates to their solutions
Show response
Kubasik confirmed expecting May PBR with mission-level allocation, noted full access to senior government officials.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you've got about $150 million of growth in free cash flow in 2025 and then $350 million at the midpoint, placeholder for growth in 2026
Show response
Bedingfield provided a thorough walkthrough of FCF growth aligned with topline growth, margin expansion, and working capital management.
RTXRTX Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Are you planning to deliver more on-wing engines to Airbus this year than you were at the start of the year?
Show response
Mitchill said Airbus installs are unchanged for the year with a record engine count; Collins OE raise of about $525 million spans narrow- and wide-body rates.
Calendar 2026 Q1
On the effector side, as a surrogate, LHX laid out this almost 20% CAGR through 2030 for the missiles business. Would that be reflective of the kind of growth you're expecting
Show response
Mitchill sized effectors at 40%+ of Raytheon sales and confirmed double-digit growth in both effectors and sensors. Calio highlighted sensors potential has been under-discussed given Golden Dome priorities.
Calendar 2025 Q4
could you pull back the covers on the Raytheon segment in terms of the growth rates of maybe some of the larger SDUs
Show response
Mitchill confirmed Land and Air Defense Systems driving over half of Raytheon growth. 11 consecutive quarters of material receipt growth. 85% of 2026 sales in backlog. Calio described constructive partnership with department on accelerating output.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I just want to make sure that's 30% output for GTF and so a pretty steep 4Q MRO output improvement you're looking for there.
Show response
Calio confirmed 30% target citing record Gate 3 restarts, strong material flow (forgings +16%, castings +29%), and 110-day turnaround times. Raytheon limited by supply chain, not demand.
Calendar 2025 Q2
are you assuming that revert on August 1 back to the liberation day levels or the new levels or just they continue at pace where they are?
Show response
Mitchill confirmed $500M assumes current rates. If rates go up, ~2 months would hit P&L with rest in inventory. EPS range can absorb potential increase.
Calendar 2025 Q1
you mentioned that the tariff side didn't assume changes in customer buying behavior or operational disruption. Could you maybe talk about those as elements of watch items
Show response
Calio detailed supply chain stability entering Q1 and noted China is about 2% of global imports. Emphasized staying locked tight with supply base on tariff mitigations.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Are we still on track for the $800 million to $1 billion step-down in 2026?
Show response
Both Calio and Mitchill confirmed powder metal outlook is on track, with MRO output up 30% and cash profile managed through customer agreements.
LMTLockheed Martin4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 2 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
I think we talked about R&D and CapEx as a percent of sales. And at the time, you didn't see a need for that to rise materially. But, obviously, that's changed here in the release. I think I unders...
Show response
Jim attributed the R&D step-up to DoD's transparent commitment to advanced technology and a rising defense budget creating more prototype activity opportunities. Cited an existing end-to-end process from scientific research through operational prototypes already deployed on ships, Air Force bases, and test ranges.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Curious on the fourth quarter implied margins at Space in the low 8% range Is there anything in particular driving that?
Show response
Evan attributed low Q4 Space margins to fewer risk retirements, not indicative of run rate. Jim described corporate R&D pivot to self-funded operational prototypes including SBI, autonomous Blackhawk, and 6th-gen F-35 insertion.
Calendar 2025 Q2
why should investors feel at all comfortable that you've derisked the problem programs, particularly the Aero classified one?
Show response
Jim explained wider expertise team, deeper-level assumption review, enhanced monitoring with recurring senior management participation. Evan added that Q4 controls provided better insight enabling May cost warning.
Calendar 2024 Q4
on the Aero side, $400 million of charges taken in the quarter, is that $400 million headwind being absorbed mostly in 2025
Show response
Jay indicated the Aero classified charge cash drag spans 2-3 years, not all in 2025. On 2026 pension, pointed to working capital improvements and strong balance sheet optionality.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics | 14 | 7%1 of 14 questions |
| TDG TransDigm Group | 12 | 25%3 of 12 questions |
| TXT Textron | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | 11 | 45%5 of 11 questions |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions |
| BA The Boeing Company | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
| GE GE Aerospace | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| LHX L3Harris | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
| RTX RTX Corporation | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
- GDGeneral Dynamics · 14 questions7%1 of 14 questions
- TDGTransDigm Group · 12 questions25%3 of 12 questions
- TXTTextron · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries · 11 questions45%5 of 11 questions
- NOCNorthrop Grumman · 9 questions11%1 of 9 questions
- HWMHowmet Aerospace · 8 questions0%none of 8 questions
- BAThe Boeing Company · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
- GEGE Aerospace · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- LHXL3Harris · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
- RTXRTX Corporation · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 16 | 13%2 of 16 questions | 11 |
| 2025 Q1 | 14 | 14%2 of 14 questions | 10 |
| 2025 Q2 | 15 | 13%2 of 15 questions | 11 |
| 2025 Q3 | 13 | 15%2 of 13 questions | 11 |
| 2025 Q4 | 14 | 29%4 of 14 questions | 10 |
| 2026 Q1 | 11 | 0%none of 11 questions | 9 |
| 2026 Q2 | 13 | 23%3 of 13 questions | 9 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q416 questions · challenge rate 13% (2 of 16 questions) · 11 companies
- 2025 Q114 questions · challenge rate 14% (2 of 14 questions) · 10 companies
- 2025 Q215 questions · challenge rate 13% (2 of 15 questions) · 11 companies
- 2025 Q313 questions · challenge rate 15% (2 of 13 questions) · 11 companies
- 2025 Q414 questions · challenge rate 29% (4 of 14 questions) · 10 companies
- 2026 Q111 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 11 questions) · 9 companies
- 2026 Q213 questions · challenge rate 23% (3 of 13 questions) · 9 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand32
- Margin19
- Capital Allocation18
- Revenue Growth16
- Supply Chain15
- Product Launch11
- Guidance Reliability11
- Regulation Policy10
- Capex Investment9
- Competitive Dynamics7
Show all 20 topics
- Cost Pressure7
- M&A6
- Trade Tariffs6
- Innovation & R&D5
- Labor Market4
- Pricing3
- Macroeconomic2
- Cloud & AI1
- Inventory1
- Geographic Expansion1