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Analyst

Patrick Baumann

JPMorgan · covers Industrials

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q1 (6 quarters; questions recorded in 5).

Questions
30on tracked calls
Challenge rate
10%3 of 30 questions
Companies
11questioned at least once
Reporting periods
5with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 30 of 30 questions from 11 companies

GWWW. W. Grainger9 questions · 5 reporting periods · 2 of 9 challenging
GWW company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

is all of that decline coming from gross margin sequentially? Could you bridge the drivers between seasonal versus the private label costs, fuel costs, or meeting timing?

MarginCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CFO provided detailed bridge: ~100bps gross margin decline (60bps seasonality, 20bps private label, remainder fuel leakage), plus normal SG&A seasonality from stock comp and merit.

What is embedded now for the guide for the year in terms of market outlook and for price?

Show response

CEO confirmed 0-1% volume growth assumption and price moderating from ~5% in Q1 to ~4% for the full year.

Calendar 2025 Q3

What do you estimate the MRO market volume did in the third quarter

MacroeconomicCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

DG estimated MRO market volume down 2% in Q3. Grainger volume grew 1-2%. Confirmed seeing significant returns on growth investments.

Can you size that? I assume that's incremental to that 80 to 90 basis points

ChallengingPricingTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

DG confirmed tariff costs are tagged for potential unwinding; would see benefit from lower cost inventory flowing through if tariffs reversed.

Calendar 2025 Q2

whether you've seen contract cancellations at all impact your business there and whether you've been able to backfill

Regulation PolicyDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

DG said no contract cancellations; non-military federal struggling, military good, state/local mixed. 70% state/local, 30% federal.

do you think 2026 will be a year of gross margin expansion back to that 39% level just based on all those things

MarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Both Dee and DG indicated 2026 gross margin recovery to ~39% is very likely barring further dramatic changes.

Calendar 2025 Q1

is there a rule of thumb or an average where your private label competes with a branded product? Like what percent discount in price

ChallengingPricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

DG explained economics vary by SKU; modest cost advantage products would be underwater quickly at high tariffs but gross margin gap isn't huge.

Calendar 2024 Q4

is it similar for Grainger where you need a high single-digit top line to get the high teens incrementals that you need to expand your margins

MarginRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

DG said mid-single-digit growth drives margin expansion; lower single digits makes it challenging.

if you could update us on your global sourcing mix by some of the key regions, maybe China, Mexico, Canada

Trade TariffsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

DG disclosed 60-70% of global sourcing from China; moved some to Vietnam and India. Would try to pass on costs maintaining same margins.

JCIJohnson Controls4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
JCI company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you quantify the shape in terms of the percentage you expect to deliver over the next 12 months

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Marc quantified 70% of $20B backlog convertible within 12 months. Remaining challenged by power/electrical infrastructure constraints for data center customers pushing some deliveries beyond 18 months.

wondering if you could give any context on where you think margins in that area can get to in the second half and then longer term, what the vision is

MarginGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Marc noted EMEA margins improving ~100bps for the year. Q3 may see slight pressure before Q4 recovery. Long-term, EMEA operates 300-400bps below regional peers and has room to close that gap.

Calendar 2025 Q3

this amort coming down this year, can you just talk about the drivers? And is that related to this $400 million restructuring charge

Show response

Amort decline from impairments and portfolio actions, not restructuring. Decline is sustainable. Further reduction possible if contemplated divestitures proceed.

what would you expect for the first quarter? Will you be up despite the tough comp?

DemandGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Confirmed orders can grow off the tough Q1 comp. Pipeline health continues improving. Pointing efforts at faster-growing market segments.

FASTFastenal3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
FAST company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

Has enough changed to alter your thinking there?

Show response

Max confirmed high-20s incremental margin guidance from last quarter is unchanged. Cited structural SG&A efficiencies and gross margin mitigation actions. Short and direct confirmation.

Did you observe any noncompliance in the industry that would impact market dynamics in fasteners

Trade TariffsCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Dan gave a brief, definitive no. No competitive distortion observed from Section 232 tariff compliance issues.

Calendar 2025 Q2

how does price/cost look in that relative to the way you're thinking about it?

Show response

Dan said price/cost gets more challenging in H2 as higher-cost inventory flows through COGS. Currently slightly ahead, goal is to stay with it, could end up 5-10bps behind. Fastener expansion initiative is the main gross margin support.

CARRCarrier Global2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
CARR company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

when I run the math on the implication for the price that you're putting through on RLC, assuming it's kind of there, it's like a high single-digit percent increase

PricingTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Patrick confirmed high single-digit RLC pricing math. Dave clarified they raised prices across the entire RLC portfolio rather than selectively, to avoid disproportionate impact on certain products.

It doesn't sound like it's a capacity constraint issue as to why you're not increasing that. So is it just like lead times of when these orders are being booked?

Cloud & AIMarginRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Dave noted execution risk in H2 ramp is the reason for maintaining the $1.5B target despite bookings supporting upside. Confirmed data center margins are accretive to overall CHVAC margins.

DOVDover Corporation2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
DOV company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

generally, looking historically, the first quarter orders convert at a similar level into second quarter sales. So I guess I'm just trying to get a sense on how to think about that $2.5 billion in ...

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Rich cautioned against stuffing Q1 bookings into Q2 revenue expectations; some businesses booking into Q3 now; will get as much out as possible but capacity constrains near-term conversion.

price expectations for the year now, based on what you're seeing from a commodities cost inflation perspective, do you still expect to be a kind of 1.5% to 2%?

PricingCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Rich confirmed 1.5-2% price expectation unchanged; inventory buffers any input cost changes from impacting margins until well into next year.

HUBBHubbell Incorporated2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
HUBB company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

Does it go from like, I don't know, low single-digit organic volume growth in the third quarter to something in the double digits in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

Show response

Double-digit Q4 volumes not reflected in guidance. Volumes ramp through year with easier Q4 comps, while price contributes steadily incrementally.

I'm just backing into a margin guide for the year expansion of 50 basis points. Is that in the ballpark?

Show response

Approximately 50bps full-year margin expansion confirmed. Electrical expansion likely above that rate, Utility below. Both segments impacted by FIFO transition effects.

Show 5 more companies
LIILennox International2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
LII company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

Can you give any context on the 9% in the first quarter, how much came from price versus mix

PricingProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CFO confirmed Q1 price/mix of 9% was majority mix from 454B carryover. Mix tapers in Q2 as prior-year comparisons normalize. Balance of year price/mix is almost entirely price from new increases.

tie the inventory being normal comment with like the growth that we're seeing on the balance sheet year-over-year. I know some of that's acquisitions

InventorySupply ChainTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CEO explained Q1 inventory build of $60M versus $210M prior year represents $150M improvement. Prior year excess of $100-150M largely absorbed. Continued investment in parts, emergency replacement, and fulfillment rates but on track for normalization.

PNRPentair2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
PNR company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

Did I hear you say you are going to do additional share repurchases this year? Is that embedded in guidance, or did I mishear that?

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CFO confirmed $200M Q1 buyback and plans for more in 2026, but additional repurchases NOT in current guidance. Provides upside potential.

What is embedded in your new guide of 1% to 3% for the segment for industry sell-through?

DemandGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

CEO confirmed flat volume plus price for industry sell-through assumption underlying Pool segment guidance of 1-3%.

VRTVertiv Holdings Co2 questions · 1 reporting period · 1 of 2 challenging
VRT company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

from first quarter reported to the second quarter guidance, looks like the incremental margin is kind of in the low [ 20s ]

MarginCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Craig explained Q1-to-Q2 sequential margin dip is from a major capacity ramp in Q2 plus tariff offsets, but full-year incremental margins remain in the 30-35% range.

The tariffs, I think you said to materially offset it, you thought that would be at the end of first quarter. Is that kind of slipped out to second quarter

ChallengingTrade TariffsPricingTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Craig confirmed tariff offsets were substantially achieved by end of Q1, with continued countermeasures underway for evolving 232 changes.

ETNEaton Corporation1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
ETN company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

the commentary you made on March and April being better and then the incremental pricing you put through in April

Show response

Dave confirmed 150 basis points margin improvement expected Q1 to Q2 in Electrical Americas. Full pricing take from April actions comes through in the following quarter. April demonstrated continued momentum.

OTISOtis Worldwide1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
OTIS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

Just wanted to get some more clarity on the margin you expect there in the second quarter and then for the year

MarginTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Cristina (attributed to Judy in transcript): NE margins ~3% for balance of year (stable from Q1). Volume recovery offset by competitive price in backlog (China 2025 pricing) and mix. Tariffs favorable by $10M vs original guide (IPA, Section 122 changes). Commodities small $10M headwind (vs $10M tailwind prior year). Corporate ~$50M/quarter, ~$50M worse full year vs prior.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
GWW W. W. Grainger922%2 of 9 questions
JCI Johnson Controls40%none of 4 questions
FAST Fastenal30%none of 3 questions
CARR Carrier Global2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
DOV Dover Corporation2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
HUBB Hubbell Incorporated2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
LII Lennox International2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
PNR Pentair2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
VRT Vertiv Holdings Co2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
ETN Eaton Corporation1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • GWW
    W. W. Grainger · 9 questions
    22%2 of 9 questions
  • JCI
    Johnson Controls · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • FAST
    Fastenal · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • CARR
    Carrier Global · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • DOV
    Dover Corporation · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • HUBB
    Hubbell Incorporated · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • LII
    Lennox International · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • PNR
    Pentair · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • VRT
    Vertiv Holdings Co · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • ETN
    Eaton Corporation · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
Show all 11 companies
CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
OTIS Otis Worldwide1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • OTIS
    Otis Worldwide · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q420%none of 2 questions1
2025 Q11100%1 of 1 question1
2025 Q250%none of 5 questions3
2025 Q3425%1 of 4 questions2
2025 Q4No questions recorded——
2026 Q1186%1 of 18 questions10
  1. 2024 Q42 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  2. 2025 Q11 question · challenge rate 100% (1 of 1 question) · 1 company
  3. 2025 Q25 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 3 companies
  4. 2025 Q34 questions · challenge rate 25% (1 of 4 questions) · 2 companies
  5. 2025 Q4No questions recorded
  6. 2026 Q118 questions · challenge rate 6% (1 of 18 questions) · 10 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Margin11
  • Pricing9
  • Demand6
  • Trade Tariffs6
  • Revenue Growth5
  • Cost Pressure3
  • Competitive Dynamics3
  • Guidance Reliability3
  • Supply Chain2
  • Geographic Expansion1
Show all 18 topics
  • Cloud & AI1
  • Product Launch1
  • Inventory1
  • Capital Allocation1
  • Capex Investment1
  • M&A1
  • Macroeconomic1
  • Regulation Policy1