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Analyst

Ryan Todd

Piper Sandler · covers Energy

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2025 Q4 (5 quarters).

Questions
29on tracked calls
Challenge rate
0%none of 29 questions
Companies
6questioned at least once
Reporting periods
5with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 29 of 29 questions from 6 companies

VLOValero Energy10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 10 challenging
VLO company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

Any thoughts in terms of what you're hearing on timing or any of the any of the items which are are kinda debated out there

Show response

Rich Walsh cited the outdated DOE SRE process that doesn't account for shale revolution, noted a legislative compromise supported by API, ag interests, and most refiners, but a small number of conglomerate small refiners are holding up resolution.

can you maybe walk us through the timeline of the coming shutdown of Venetia, and how you're thinking about West dynamics for 2026

MarginRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Gary cited weak gasoline-to-diesel ratio hurting Benicia's high gasoline yield, plus a retroactive pipeline tariff. Rich Walsh confirmed process units being idled due to mandatory inspection requirements, with fuel production continuing through inventory drawdown.

Calendar 2025 Q3

U.S. refining utilization has been quite strong versus historical norms over the last 6 months

Competitive DynamicsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Lane attributed improvement to industry-wide reliability investments over 15 years plus AI/predictive capabilities, while Greg noted mild summer weather also helped.

number of things that were, I would say, like modest headwinds on margin capture

Show response

Greg noted butane blending will help capture seasonally, and differentials are favorable, but weak naphtha and propylene remain headwinds.

Calendar 2025 Q2

there are reports that the California government envisions themselves kind of like brokering a sale of the Benicia Refinery

Show response

Rich Walsh declined to comment on media speculation, confirmed ongoing CEC discussions but no solutions have materialized from California's side.

Can you maybe talk about what you've seen so far, either operationally, what you've seen in terms of what's maybe surprised or been as expected in te

Product LaunchCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Eric highlighted operational upside surprise in SAF quality and blendability, while airline demand interest was a downside surprise; EU may increase buying in H2 for 2% compliance.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Can you maybe walk through where you think we are on the path to normalization

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Eric detailed catalyst change impacts on Q1 volumes, PTC capture improving from ~50% to 100% on eligible stocks, and identified RIN increases and LCFS modifications as potential back-half tailwinds.

Can you walk through the decision to close the Peninsula refinery? Why now? What's changed?

Regulation PolicyCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Lane cited California's 20-year policy trajectory away from fossil fuels, Benicia's higher regulatory burden and significantly higher maintenance costs versus Wilmington.

Calendar 2024 Q4

provide a little bit of an update in terms of your SAF operations at this point, maybe some idea of level of production

Product LaunchMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Eric confirmed flawless startup with first sales in November and wide operability range, but declined to give specific production level guidance.

Is there a risk that economics kind of fall off the table in the first quarter as this stuff gets sorted

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Eric detailed 45Z credit values by feedstock showing DGD's waste oil advantage, but acknowledged overall lower incentives for the entire renewable fuel industry.

CVXChevron Corporation5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
CVX company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

you've made a lot of progress in the Eastern Mediterranean over the last six months. Can you walk through kind of the drivers of the progress in the region, keys to Aphrodite development

Geographic ExpansionCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Wirth outlined Tamar adding 500 mmcf/d capacity, Leviathan 200 mmcf/d near-term plus expansion FID to 2.1 BCF/d by decade-end. Aphrodite entered FEED with Cyprus. At least one exploration well planned offshore Egypt. 25% production growth and 2x earnings/cash flow by 2030.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you maybe talk a little bit about what were some of the drivers of the strong performance?

Show response

CFO cited production growth and synergy delivery. Wirth added Yellowtail startup, Hammerhead FID, and high praise for quality of Hess people joining Chevron.

Calendar 2025 Q2

what has worked well of late as you look across the operational portfolio? And how do you continue to build on that momentum going forward?

Competitive DynamicsInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Nelson cited turnaround excellence (14/16 top quartile), Pasadena ramp to nameplate, and 1-2% portfolio production efficiency improvement YTD as key drivers.

Calendar 2025 Q1

can you talk about what drove the difference, whether in terms of well mix, development strategy, completions, et cetera?

Innovation & R&DRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Wirth highlighted Second Bone Spring outperformance in New Mexico, Texas Wolfcamp improvements. 2025 type curves expected similar to 2024 with 85% Delaware focus. Oil cut stable at 43-45%.

Calendar 2024 Q4

what have you seen in terms of reservoir performance so far? What have you learned in terms from these developments

Innovation & R&DGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Wirth confirmed Anchor wells performing at or above expectations in new pressure/temperature regime. Two wells online, third expected Q2, fourth/fifth by early 2026.

PSXPhillips 665 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
PSX company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you talk about maybe some of the headwinds in the third quarter and how those might be trending or improving into the fourth quarter?

Show response

Rich gave regional breakdown: Atlantic Basin 97%/99% utilization, Gulf Coast 86%/100%, Central Corridor 101%/103%, West Coast 69% (L.A. drag). Brian noted jet now above diesel across all PADDs as tailwind.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Can you talk about what you see as the primary drivers in your view? How do you see the outlook over the remainder of the year?

Show response

Brian expects strong distillate margins through year-end with planting season, hurricanes, fall turnarounds, and winter demand. Potential relief from OPEC crude, Canadian production, and Mid East imports.

Can you talk about how you view your progress in that regard? And particularly in a quarter like this one

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Brian cited ~2 dozen originators hired globally across Houston, Calgary, UK, Singapore, China. Focus on moving barrels to highest netback markets along integrated value chain.

Calendar 2025 Q1

can you talk about maybe some of the challenges that you had, optimizing things from a feedstock point of view in the first quarter

Regulation PolicyCost PressureTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Brian admitted suboptimal early decisions on feedstock given evolving PTC rules. Expects more clarity in June-July from tax bill, RVO in late May, and LCFS by end of June.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Any comments on how you would see in the early part of this year the outlook, any moving pieces that might drive capture rate higher or lower

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Rich noted Q1 seasonal butane blending benefit continues; turnarounds and low-80s utilization will impact results. Directed to regional indicators on IR website.

COPConocoPhillips4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
COP company page →

Calendar 2025 Q4

what would you need to see to step up activity levels? And grow a little faster in the lower 48

MacroeconomicPricingTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Ryan Lance described 2026 scope as set, expecting commodity softness near-term. Constructive longer-term with LNG and Willow coming on when the world needs the oil. Lower 48 can ramp if warranted but no urgency given current portfolio strength.

Calendar 2025 Q2

You increased your expectation for the incremental resource adds from 2 billion to 2.5 billion barrels with a doubling of resource

M&AInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Nick Olds detailed Permian upside from primary and secondary intervals across Wolfcamp A/C, Bone Springs, Woodford formations plus acreage trades for longer laterals.

Calendar 2025 Q1

maybe can you talk about how that integration is going? What you're seeing on the operational front

Show response

Andy O'Brien highlighted capital synergies over $500M from day one, record Eagle Ford drilling, and new commercial synergies in crude lending and midstream contracts.

Calendar 2024 Q4

You've announced $600 million of asset sales relative to a target of $2 billion. You maybe talk about that program ongoing going forward

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Andy O'Brien confirmed confidence in $2B target, noted Port Arthur equity sell-down is a consideration but not urgent given project derisking without capital.

MPCMarathon Petroleum3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
MPC company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you talk about some of the macro opportunity set that has you leaning in a little more here in the near term into some of the project spend

Capex InvestmentMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CEO detailed growth pipeline: Northwind sour gas reaching run rate by end 2026, BANGL 100% ownership, Secretariat plant, fracs in 2028-29, all driven by NGL demand growth and LNG export demand.

What sort of impact could this have on your access to or approach to feedstock at Martinez if you continue to see penalties there?

Regulation PolicySupply ChainTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

CEO said potential 50% foreign feedstock limit is less impactful for MPC given Neste partnership and diverse sourcing; CFO confirmed 45Z largely in run rate after April restructuring.

Calendar 2025 Q2

what do you think we need to see for the market to tighten up and margins to move higher?

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

CEO framed RD as a small portion of throughput (~50K bpd vs 3M total), emphasized having one of the most competitive assets, but acknowledged margins require regulatory support.

XOMExxonMobil2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 2 challenging
XOM company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you talk about opportunities on the horizon over the next twelve to twenty-four months

Geographic ExpansionInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Woods framed exploration as one of three levers for addressing depletion alongside squeezing more from existing fields and growing advantages for inorganic opportunities. Very focused on narrowing exploration to opportunities that are material commercially attractive and compete in portfolio. Put a lot of effort into seismic interpretation and technology to bring into exploration. Feel pretty good about opportunity set but still must demonstrate and translate into finding success. Exploration always been part of equation for upstream challenges.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Can you talk about what has worked well, including the contribution that you're seeing from the China Chemical Complex

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Woods said really good demand but a lot of supply chasing it creating challenging margins expected to persist longer than anyone would like. Capacity slowly coming off and demand needs to grow. ExxonMobil not basing business on calling the market. Results driven by kit design, feed flexibility to optimize feedstock daily, structural location advantages, purposeful growth in high-value products, and massive structural cost reductions. Chemical team achieved hat trick of upgrading feedstock, upgrading to high-value products, and doing it at lower cost. China Complex still in early startup days but coming on well. Full utilization expected by end of year into next year.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
VLO Valero Energy100%none of 10 questions
CVX Chevron Corporation50%none of 5 questions
PSX Phillips 6650%none of 5 questions
COP ConocoPhillips40%none of 4 questions
MPC Marathon Petroleum30%none of 3 questions
XOM ExxonMobil2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • VLO
    Valero Energy · 10 questions
    0%none of 10 questions
  • CVX
    Chevron Corporation · 5 questions
    0%none of 5 questions
  • PSX
    Phillips 66 · 5 questions
    0%none of 5 questions
  • COP
    ConocoPhillips · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • MPC
    Marathon Petroleum · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • XOM
    ExxonMobil · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q450%none of 5 questions4
2025 Q150%none of 5 questions4
2025 Q280%none of 8 questions6
2025 Q370%none of 7 questions5
2025 Q440%none of 4 questions3
  1. 2024 Q45 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
  2. 2025 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
  3. 2025 Q28 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 6 companies
  4. 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 5 companies
  5. 2025 Q44 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Regulation Policy9
  • Margin9
  • Competitive Dynamics6
  • Innovation & R&D5
  • M&A4
  • Pricing3
  • Geographic Expansion3
  • Revenue Growth3
  • Macroeconomic2
  • Capex Investment2
Show all 15 topics
  • Supply Chain2
  • Product Launch2
  • Cost Pressure2
  • Capital Allocation2
  • Demand1