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Analyst
Ryan Todd
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2025 Q4 (5 quarters).
- Questions
- 29on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 0%none of 29 questions
- Companies
- 6questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 5with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 29 of 29 questions from 6 companies
VLOValero Energy10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
Any thoughts in terms of what you're hearing on timing or any of the any of the items which are are kinda debated out there
Show response
Rich Walsh cited the outdated DOE SRE process that doesn't account for shale revolution, noted a legislative compromise supported by API, ag interests, and most refiners, but a small number of conglomerate small refiners are holding up resolution.
can you maybe walk us through the timeline of the coming shutdown of Venetia, and how you're thinking about West dynamics for 2026
Show response
Gary cited weak gasoline-to-diesel ratio hurting Benicia's high gasoline yield, plus a retroactive pipeline tariff. Rich Walsh confirmed process units being idled due to mandatory inspection requirements, with fuel production continuing through inventory drawdown.
Calendar 2025 Q3
U.S. refining utilization has been quite strong versus historical norms over the last 6 months
Show response
Lane attributed improvement to industry-wide reliability investments over 15 years plus AI/predictive capabilities, while Greg noted mild summer weather also helped.
number of things that were, I would say, like modest headwinds on margin capture
Show response
Greg noted butane blending will help capture seasonally, and differentials are favorable, but weak naphtha and propylene remain headwinds.
Calendar 2025 Q2
there are reports that the California government envisions themselves kind of like brokering a sale of the Benicia Refinery
Show response
Rich Walsh declined to comment on media speculation, confirmed ongoing CEC discussions but no solutions have materialized from California's side.
Can you maybe talk about what you've seen so far, either operationally, what you've seen in terms of what's maybe surprised or been as expected in te
Show response
Eric highlighted operational upside surprise in SAF quality and blendability, while airline demand interest was a downside surprise; EU may increase buying in H2 for 2% compliance.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you maybe walk through where you think we are on the path to normalization
Show response
Eric detailed catalyst change impacts on Q1 volumes, PTC capture improving from ~50% to 100% on eligible stocks, and identified RIN increases and LCFS modifications as potential back-half tailwinds.
Can you walk through the decision to close the Peninsula refinery? Why now? What's changed?
Show response
Lane cited California's 20-year policy trajectory away from fossil fuels, Benicia's higher regulatory burden and significantly higher maintenance costs versus Wilmington.
Calendar 2024 Q4
provide a little bit of an update in terms of your SAF operations at this point, maybe some idea of level of production
Show response
Eric confirmed flawless startup with first sales in November and wide operability range, but declined to give specific production level guidance.
Is there a risk that economics kind of fall off the table in the first quarter as this stuff gets sorted
Show response
Eric detailed 45Z credit values by feedstock showing DGD's waste oil advantage, but acknowledged overall lower incentives for the entire renewable fuel industry.
CVXChevron Corporation5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
you've made a lot of progress in the Eastern Mediterranean over the last six months. Can you walk through kind of the drivers of the progress in the region, keys to Aphrodite development
Show response
Wirth outlined Tamar adding 500 mmcf/d capacity, Leviathan 200 mmcf/d near-term plus expansion FID to 2.1 BCF/d by decade-end. Aphrodite entered FEED with Cyprus. At least one exploration well planned offshore Egypt. 25% production growth and 2x earnings/cash flow by 2030.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you maybe talk a little bit about what were some of the drivers of the strong performance?
Show response
CFO cited production growth and synergy delivery. Wirth added Yellowtail startup, Hammerhead FID, and high praise for quality of Hess people joining Chevron.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what has worked well of late as you look across the operational portfolio? And how do you continue to build on that momentum going forward?
Show response
Nelson cited turnaround excellence (14/16 top quartile), Pasadena ramp to nameplate, and 1-2% portfolio production efficiency improvement YTD as key drivers.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you talk about what drove the difference, whether in terms of well mix, development strategy, completions, et cetera?
Show response
Wirth highlighted Second Bone Spring outperformance in New Mexico, Texas Wolfcamp improvements. 2025 type curves expected similar to 2024 with 85% Delaware focus. Oil cut stable at 43-45%.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what have you seen in terms of reservoir performance so far? What have you learned in terms from these developments
Show response
Wirth confirmed Anchor wells performing at or above expectations in new pressure/temperature regime. Two wells online, third expected Q2, fourth/fifth by early 2026.
PSXPhillips 665 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you talk about maybe some of the headwinds in the third quarter and how those might be trending or improving into the fourth quarter?
Show response
Rich gave regional breakdown: Atlantic Basin 97%/99% utilization, Gulf Coast 86%/100%, Central Corridor 101%/103%, West Coast 69% (L.A. drag). Brian noted jet now above diesel across all PADDs as tailwind.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Can you talk about what you see as the primary drivers in your view? How do you see the outlook over the remainder of the year?
Show response
Brian expects strong distillate margins through year-end with planting season, hurricanes, fall turnarounds, and winter demand. Potential relief from OPEC crude, Canadian production, and Mid East imports.
Can you talk about how you view your progress in that regard? And particularly in a quarter like this one
Show response
Brian cited ~2 dozen originators hired globally across Houston, Calgary, UK, Singapore, China. Focus on moving barrels to highest netback markets along integrated value chain.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you talk about maybe some of the challenges that you had, optimizing things from a feedstock point of view in the first quarter
Show response
Brian admitted suboptimal early decisions on feedstock given evolving PTC rules. Expects more clarity in June-July from tax bill, RVO in late May, and LCFS by end of June.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Any comments on how you would see in the early part of this year the outlook, any moving pieces that might drive capture rate higher or lower
Show response
Rich noted Q1 seasonal butane blending benefit continues; turnarounds and low-80s utilization will impact results. Directed to regional indicators on IR website.
COPConocoPhillips4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
what would you need to see to step up activity levels? And grow a little faster in the lower 48
Show response
Ryan Lance described 2026 scope as set, expecting commodity softness near-term. Constructive longer-term with LNG and Willow coming on when the world needs the oil. Lower 48 can ramp if warranted but no urgency given current portfolio strength.
Calendar 2025 Q2
You increased your expectation for the incremental resource adds from 2 billion to 2.5 billion barrels with a doubling of resource
Show response
Nick Olds detailed Permian upside from primary and secondary intervals across Wolfcamp A/C, Bone Springs, Woodford formations plus acreage trades for longer laterals.
Calendar 2025 Q1
maybe can you talk about how that integration is going? What you're seeing on the operational front
Show response
Andy O'Brien highlighted capital synergies over $500M from day one, record Eagle Ford drilling, and new commercial synergies in crude lending and midstream contracts.
Calendar 2024 Q4
You've announced $600 million of asset sales relative to a target of $2 billion. You maybe talk about that program ongoing going forward
Show response
Andy O'Brien confirmed confidence in $2B target, noted Port Arthur equity sell-down is a consideration but not urgent given project derisking without capital.
MPCMarathon Petroleum3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you talk about some of the macro opportunity set that has you leaning in a little more here in the near term into some of the project spend
Show response
CEO detailed growth pipeline: Northwind sour gas reaching run rate by end 2026, BANGL 100% ownership, Secretariat plant, fracs in 2028-29, all driven by NGL demand growth and LNG export demand.
What sort of impact could this have on your access to or approach to feedstock at Martinez if you continue to see penalties there?
Show response
CEO said potential 50% foreign feedstock limit is less impactful for MPC given Neste partnership and diverse sourcing; CFO confirmed 45Z largely in run rate after April restructuring.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what do you think we need to see for the market to tighten up and margins to move higher?
Show response
CEO framed RD as a small portion of throughput (~50K bpd vs 3M total), emphasized having one of the most competitive assets, but acknowledged margins require regulatory support.
XOMExxonMobil2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you talk about opportunities on the horizon over the next twelve to twenty-four months
Show response
Woods framed exploration as one of three levers for addressing depletion alongside squeezing more from existing fields and growing advantages for inorganic opportunities. Very focused on narrowing exploration to opportunities that are material commercially attractive and compete in portfolio. Put a lot of effort into seismic interpretation and technology to bring into exploration. Feel pretty good about opportunity set but still must demonstrate and translate into finding success. Exploration always been part of equation for upstream challenges.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Can you talk about what has worked well, including the contribution that you're seeing from the China Chemical Complex
Show response
Woods said really good demand but a lot of supply chasing it creating challenging margins expected to persist longer than anyone would like. Capacity slowly coming off and demand needs to grow. ExxonMobil not basing business on calling the market. Results driven by kit design, feed flexibility to optimize feedstock daily, structural location advantages, purposeful growth in high-value products, and massive structural cost reductions. Chemical team achieved hat trick of upgrading feedstock, upgrading to high-value products, and doing it at lower cost. China Complex still in early startup days but coming on well. Full utilization expected by end of year into next year.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| VLO Valero Energy | 10 | 0%none of 10 questions |
| CVX Chevron Corporation | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions |
| XOM ExxonMobil | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- VLOValero Energy · 10 questions0%none of 10 questions
- CVXChevron Corporation · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- PSXPhillips 66 · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- COPConocoPhillips · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- MPCMarathon Petroleum · 3 questions0%none of 3 questions
- XOMExxonMobil · 2 questions—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q1 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q2 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 6 |
| 2025 Q3 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q4 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 3 |
- 2024 Q45 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q15 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q28 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 6 companies
- 2025 Q37 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q44 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Regulation Policy9
- Margin9
- Competitive Dynamics6
- Innovation & R&D5
- M&A4
- Pricing3
- Geographic Expansion3
- Revenue Growth3
- Macroeconomic2
- Capex Investment2
Show all 15 topics
- Supply Chain2
- Product Launch2
- Cost Pressure2
- Capital Allocation2
- Demand1