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Analyst
Sheila Kahyaoglu
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 123on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 13%16 of 123 questions
- Companies
- 15questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 123 of 123 questions from 15 companies
GDGeneral Dynamics12 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
How do we think about the margin baseline from here, whether it's model mix?
Show response
Danny gave a clear quarterly shape and said margins hold in that neighborhood with slight mix-driven variability.
can you provide an update on where the workforce supply chain is from here on Marine? Any risks?
Show response
Danny said hiring and retention are hitting plan with Navy help, and framed margin progress as a steady continuing trend.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Should we expect any cadence changes to deliveries for the rest of the year for these jets?
Show response
Danny confirmed Q2 delivery cadence similar to Q1, with Q3 and Q4 higher. Supply chain keeping up for GD despite peer concerns.
Is it fair to say that the 2% EPS raise is primarily related to aerospace and the 15% margins versus the 14% guide
Show response
Danny broadened attribution beyond just aerospace, marine and technology also contributed. Will have more segment fidelity on Q2 call.
Calendar 2025 Q4
How do we think about GD Combat what's going on there? There's been a lot of press about capacity and missions and ammo. You know? How are you thinking about capacity coming online for combat
Show response
Confirmed half of 2026 CapEx goes to Electric Boat, ongoing Combat Systems investment across portfolio, munitions capacity at 36 rounds/month for twelve months with load pack assembly at 550,000 rounds/month and increased propellant capacity
the order momentum has been secured. Can you talk a little bit about what's driving that? Maybe by geography, was it bonus depreciation? Or is it the new model
Show response
Novakovic cited multiple demand drivers: new products (G800 leading, then G700, G600), bonus depreciation, economic strength, confirmed active and growing pipeline
Calendar 2025 Q3
how are you thinking about the G800 learning curve, the 700 as well?
Show response
Noted G800 introduction benefited from stabilized supply chain versus G700 experience, both aircraft seeing learning curve progression with gross margin improvement
Calendar 2025 Q2
maybe if you could talk about just the capacity of volume Gulfstream could produce. Is it growing off this 150 base annually?
Show response
Disclosed Gulfstream has infrastructure and workforce capacity for 200 aircraft annually, will increase production according to market demand
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you just update us on how we think about the last 650 being delivered in this quarter as the G800 grams
Show response
Confirmed G700 margins improving but not yet at normal cadence, G650 will deliver at high margins, G800 will enter at higher margins than G700
what's really changed, whether it was the higher in cadence, the investment required from GD or is the government customer working closer with you
Show response
Highlighted increased civilian government engagement on productivity, anticipated next wave of investment in resiliency and automation at shipyards
Calendar 2024 Q4
Any sort of quantification you could provide on just the floor, just given the supply chain has consistently lagged
Show response
Declined to quantify a margin floor, cited ongoing productivity improvements and cost-cutting efforts without providing specific targets
all your segments hit on it with Marine and DOGE within technology and even tariffs within aerospace
Show response
Gave general response about maintaining agility, embraced DOGE efficiency concept, cited threat-driven spending but avoided segment-specific impact details
HONHoneywell International Inc.12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
can you talk about the solid Q1 margins. How much of an impact was supply chain? Was it negative? And any positive onetime items in there?
Show response
Jim explained favorable Electrical vs Mechanical mix produced a tailwind in Q1 despite lower volume leverage, expected to normalize as mechanical output recovers.
Jim, any way you could delve into that a little bit more, talking about your Middle East commercial aftermarket exposure?
Show response
Jim noted growth is supply-limited, watching fuel prices closely. Business aviation flight activity is growing strongly even with higher fuel prices.
Calendar 2025 Q4
tell us the rank order of how you're thinking about 2026 end markets and any changes around the medium-term growth
Show response
2026 Aero rank: Defense & Space leads (high single/low double digit), then OE (high single digit), then aftermarket (mid-to-high single digit, normalizing). Blends to high single digit total.
How are you thinking about incremental investments surrounding your portfolio within aerospace and R&D focus areas?
Show response
2026 CapEx up ~$250M with Aero as largest share (~$150M). Funded through working capital improvement. Supply chain investments over $1B delivered 14 consecutive quarters of double-digit volume growth.
Calendar 2025 Q3
What kind of surprised to the upside in the quarter on the commercial aftermarket?
Show response
Aftermarket upside came from supply chain unlock enabling higher output, not just demand. Demand stable across the industry. Normalized Q4 growth rate high single digits.
How are you thinking about the biggest opportunities and the implications for margins
Show response
Three 2025 margin headwinds all reversing: OE mix normalizing, tariff repricing catching up, CAES turning from drag to tailwind. Q2 was margin trough at ~25%; trajectory toward 26%+ in 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q2
aftermarket, the 7% growth decelerating from 15% in Q1 and lagging some of the early reports from peers
Show response
Aftermarket normalizing as supply catches up with demand. Q2 level is the expected run rate going forward. Flight hours stable for both Air Transport and Business Aviation.
Why the destocking now? And it seems like deliveries are actually increasing. Was it related to one specific platform
Show response
Destocking concentrated in North America platforms. OEMs reducing safety stock as supply visibility improves. Electromechanicals still catching up while electronics normalized.
Calendar 2025 Q1
if commercial at least still set to outperform aftermarket for the year and any color on commercial OE production rates
Show response
OE to normalize in H2. Factory output was double-digit. About $1 billion of the $2B past-due backlog is OE. Mix within mix affecting near-term OE revenue recognition.
aftermarket 15% commercial aftermarket growth. Versus the guidance of mid to high single digits. How was price a contributor
Show response
Aftermarket outperformance driven by $2B+ past-due backlog conversion as shop capacity frees up. Price in line with initial guidance. Results will remain lumpy near-term.
Calendar 2024 Q4
if you could provide some end market color, particularly on the aftermarket mid-teens aftermarket growth in 2024
Show response
Acknowledged aftermarket decelerating as flight hours stabilize and supply chain catches up. OE expected to outgrow aftermarket due to stronger positive backlog.
Lots of questions around Bombardier and the payment there was $385 million in Q4. So how do we think about that the return
Show response
Framed as path-breaking win for avionics and engines but did not quantify specific return metrics. Revenue impact 4-5 years out; R&D and M&A investment to continue.
TDGTransDigm Group11 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Can you talk about commercial aftermarket in the quarter, up 17% versus the 14% in Q2.
Show response
Patrick attributed the growth to broad-based demand, with particular strength in engine and passenger submarkets and good interiors strength, though Q3 interiors were a little lighter.
Calendar 2026 Q1
what underlying assumptions you've built with that regard in place in terms of the macro environment
Show response
Joel described a bottoms-up operating-unit forecast process rather than top-down macro assumptions, citing engine confidence and a recovered passenger submarket.
Calendar 2025 Q3
commercial aftermarket, 11% in the quarter. Accelerated from the 6% in Q3
Show response
Mike outlined FY2026 submarket expectations: freight steady growth with available cargo tons up 3-4%. Interiors saw refurbs kick in on US regionals, expected to continue. Engines had two solid years, teams optimistic but conservative. Passenger expected to rebound after weaker FY2025. Biz jet more of the same.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I think you mentioned freight and interiors are ahead on the aftermarket side. Can you give a little bit of color there?
Show response
Mike said freight was up in double digits, ahead of CTK growth. Interiors were up in excess of freight, well into double digits, as airlines take on more interior refurb work.
the destocking, was it across both narrow-bodies and wide-bodies?
Show response
Mike confirmed destocking affected both narrow-body and wide-body programs. Guidance implies Q4 returns to positive OEM growth. Should be transitory.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how do we think about the puts and takes within the four submarkets as we head into the second half of the year?
Show response
Mike said all four submarkets up nicely with engine as strong outperformer. Expects continued growth across all four in the back half.
54% margins in Q2, just pretty strong, implies that the second half is around 52%, so 200 basis points down in the second half
Show response
Mike confirmed margin step-down is mainly conservatism plus OEM mix shift in second half. No tariff headwind contributing.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Interiors, I think that's the only sub-segment below 2019 levels. How can we think about what's driving that when you expect that to improve?
Show response
Joel said multiple refurb programs are being discussed but timing depends on airlines announcing simultaneous programs. Doesn't expect recovery within next quarter or two.
just how do we think about profitability overall, just the flattening out? Is it OE coming back up from down four to mid-single digits?
Show response
Kevin said the new Boeing contract terms are already embedded in the FY2025 forecast with no incremental profitability impact expected.
Calendar 2024 Q3
folks are picking on the commercial aftermarket number. When we think about 8% organic growth in the quarter is pretty good
Show response
Mike explained the bottoms-up forecasting approach and expressed confidence in high single-digit to low double-digit commercial aftermarket guidance for FY2025.
is there any way you could tell us what passenger was in 2024 and how do you think about it in 2025?
Show response
Mike quantified passenger submarket growth at roughly 17-20% for FY2024 and noted it would decelerate but remain nicely positive in FY2025.
TXTTextron11 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
if you guys could talk more about Bell and the funding situation for fiscal '26 regarding MV-75?
Show response
CEO walked through the ATR process, gave a September timing expectation, and confirmed the booking rate hit Bell margins this quarter.
Calendar 2026 Q1
the industrial separation has been a long time coming. Can you maybe provide a little bit more on what led to the decision? Why now
Show response
Atherton said both A&D and Industrial are now strong enough to stand alone. A decade of work positioning businesses, winning MV-75, upgrading Aviation portfolio, scaling Systems programs, divesting PowerSports, makes now the right time. Aligns with natural shareholder bases.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Maybe if you could talk about your top priorities for the company now that you're CEO
Show response
Atherton outlined three priorities: execution discipline with accountability, portfolio focus on capital allocation across A&D assets, and building resilience in manufacturing, supply chain, and talent.
You're guiding to aviation revenues up 9%, but orders were down 3% over the last twelve months. Can you maybe just discuss how the buildup to aviation guidance and the cadence for aviation througho...
Show response
Rosenberg said guide implies higher deliveries plus ~6% aftermarket growth. Margin cadence similar to 2025: ~100-150bps below guide midpoint at start, 100-150bps above by year end.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you provide additional color on like where -- what's the update on the program? You've completed 215 flight hours. I think you're scheduled to deliver 6 test articles over the next 1.5 years. W...
Show response
Donnelly explained program is mostly cost-plus development with fixed-price LUT and LRIP elements. Current scope covers 6 EMD aircraft plus 2 LUT. LRIP acceleration brings production forward with low risk since first LRIP would be serial #10. Booking rate adjusts as options are exercised.
Calendar 2025 Q2
They fell below 8% in the quarter. You called out R&D cost. How should we expect that to progress through the remainder of the year
Show response
Donnelly expects Bell margins up slightly from Q2 but toward lower end of guided range due to higher-than-planned EMD revenue being dilutive.
Are you seeing any changes given the tariffs on competitors and yourselves, how are you thinking about tariffs
Show response
Donnelly said no tariff impact yet. North American manufacturing base well-positioned. Warranty reserve trued up on multi-year shop issue running higher than expected.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how the Arctic Cat and certain product line sales impact revenues and profitability for the remainder of the year
Show response
Donnelly said revenue impact de minimis since they originally assumed aftermarket-only post-Q1. Industrial margin may trend to upper end of guide.
You think about the puts and takes on maybe the FLARA revenue contribution and profitability from here
Show response
Donnelly expects FLRAA revenue up ~20% YoY with margins in line with guide. Commercial OEM deliveries dilutive to margin rate.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you talk about that bridge as we think about the 7.8% exit rate for Q4 for Aviation, how we think about that progressing
Show response
Donnelly called Q4 margin an anomaly from strike-driven low volumes. Expects to start ~100-200bps below guide and finish 100-200bps above.
Can we talk about the 2025 deliveries? I think it's implied around 190 deliveries versus 151 in 2024
Show response
Donnelly confirmed deliveries will ramp through the year, driven by parts flow improvement and workforce stability post-strike.
NOCNorthrop Grumman10 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
on PAC 3 and more broadly on the Sentinel framework, how you are thinking about the timing
Show response
Kathy said PAC-3 qualification completed this quarter and NOC is already building ahead of definitized contracts expected later this year.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Can you size B-21 and Sentinel? How do we think about these four growth drivers from both the revenue and earnings perspective
Show response
Warden sized all four: Sentinel 6-7% of revenue growing to 10%, B-21 nearing 10% and expected to exceed it, weapons at 10% and fastest growing. All margins expected to improve as programs move to production.
Calendar 2025 Q4
the fiscal twenty seven budget provides a lot of money out there to be contracted and you know, as you think about your '26 plan and thinking about the longer term trajectory of growth, where do yo...
Show response
Warden confirmed B-21 acceleration and FAXX (F/A-XX) are not in 2026 guidance. Guidance incorporates only clear funding and accumulated backlog or high-probability awards.
as we think about '26 growth in the mid single digit range, does it accelerate from there in '27 as we think about international coupled on to that
Show response
Warden confirmed growth expected to accelerate into 2027 driven by FY27 US budget signals and continued international demand acceleration with book-to-bill well above 1x.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the aero outlook for 2025. It seems down slightly but B-21 award timing seems unchanged. So what was the shift there
Show response
Crews clarified it's timing of production, not lost sales. B-21 top-line headwinds from percentage-of-completion method after the Q1 EAC adjustment.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Do we still think about the Defense Systems as a 10% margin business on a go-forward basis then?
Show response
Warden deferred 2026 guidance but noted DS margin drivers (international mix, performance) are fundamental, not one-time. Guidance increase to mid-10%.
you called out solid rocket motors increasing to 25,000 by 2029 versus 13,000 today. Can you just talk about how Defense Systems' revenue growth profile changes
Show response
Warden said DS likely highest growth segment for several years. Motor production from 13K to 25K across small/medium/large, plus IBCS and hypersonic growth.
Calendar 2025 Q1
How do we think about the tariff impact on the overall Northrop Grumman Corporation portfolio and just international relationships
Show response
Warden said 5% of spend is international, mostly Europe, with long-term agreements and government contract coverage for most tariff costs.
twelve point nine percent in the quarter. They lag the midpoint of your guidance of mid-fourteens. How do we think about the drivers of that
Show response
Crews explained Q1 investment drag was anticipated in guidance. Margin improvement driven by ramp on mature high-margin programs and efficiency initiatives in H2.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I think you called out in your script $900 million of headwind from MTI and classified when it comes to space, implies rest of the business is growing 2%
Show response
Crews clarified the $900M headwind is concentrated in H1, with space returning to growth by end of 2025 driven by strategic comps and propulsion.
DALDelta Air Lines8 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
How do you think about higher fuel and how it changes the competitive landscape, but specifically focusing on international, how do you think about market share opportunities where you're investing...
Show response
Joe noted Delta has maintained and increased share across all entities over the past year. Fare recapture strategies differ for domestic and international but both must meet return targets. The intent is consistent: recapture the cost of fuel.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how do we think about Atlantic capacity next year? Glen, you mentioned more evenly dispersed I guess, how are you thinking about that? And maybe secondly, given your competitor just announced some ...
Show response
Glen said Delta will not fly narrow-bodies in the Transatlantic for product/brand reasons. Expects low single-digit overall growth with very low growth in peak July-August and slightly higher shoulder, which is becoming more peaky. Too early for firm competitor capacity outlook.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how do you think about US non-U.S. point of sale exposure to the curve? What's going on in Europe, and are some of the best-performing areas or countries versus lower performers?
Show response
Glen noted European outbound volume down but euro appreciation of 10%+ offsets on yield. The peak-to-shoulder seasonal shift is a multi-year structural trend driven by crowding, heat, and hotel costs, not a one-year phenomenon.
How do we think about that turning positive? What were the biggest areas of weakness do we think about the improvement in Q3 and Q4?
Show response
Glen said main cabin weakness concentrated in off-peak days (Tuesdays/Wednesdays) and times (pre-6AM, post-9PM). Industry removing those trips. Expected main cabin could turn neutral-to-positive by Q3 or Q4.
Calendar 2025 Q1
what do you need to see your flat capacity in the second half? What do you need to see to actually have reduced your fleet
Show response
Dan confirmed less than 10 net fleet additions (<1% growth in 1,300 fleet), retirements at 30+ targeting money-losing routes and high-cost flying.
how much risk there is given or just getting back to pre-pandemic levels in the corporate? And why corporate flowed
Show response
Glen noted auto sector disproportionately hit while banking and tech held up. Ed added corporate flat is a 10-point velocity change but not yet negative.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How do we think about it for 2025? As it works towards normalized levels
Show response
Dan expects maintenance to improve year over year but full normalization takes multiple years. Q1 will see more investment before stepping down.
How do you think about the number of A350 deliveries this year and how that signals to the strong Atlantic demand that you're seeing
Show response
Dan expects ~30 retirements in 2025 (up from 20+ in 2024) and about 12-13 wide-body deliveries (mix of A330s and A350s) out of ~40 total.
Show 9 more companies
UALUnited Airlines Holdings8 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
How do you think about monetizing the addition of Starlink and the advantage versus your peers?
Show response
Kirby emphasized customer feedback and share-gain potential but did not detail direct monetization economics.
Calendar 2026 Q1
How do you think about what range fuel would need to settle in for United to return to that mid-single-digit capacity growth in the second half?
Show response
Andrew said managing to financial targets and margins. If demand supports more capacity with targets intact, will bring it back. Planning for demand reduction from 20% fare increase though not yet observed.
Calendar 2025 Q4
How are you thinking about the guardrails to capacity growth this year?
Show response
Andrew declined to give specific capacity guidance. Mike noted Boeing/Airbus could deliver a few more than planned; additional narrowbodies welcome for faster up-gauging with robust profitability.
can you dissect what you guys are doing right, what the opportunities are for efficiencies going forward and how that plays into 2026 growth?
Show response
Mike cited strong operation, global procurement overhaul ($150M savings), technology-driven automation. Scott praised COO Toby for identifying additional $250M in efficiencies. Gauge tailwind still ahead.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can we talk about the sequential unit revenue trajectory for Q4, the moving pieces of domestic versus international
Show response
Andrew detailed Newark ~1pt Q3 headwind dissipating, Atlantic expected positive in Q4 even with elevated capacity, Pacific likely positive. All 3 international entities showing strong sequential improvement.
You mentioned the 100 bps of margin improvement per year. How do you think about that
Show response
Scott cited brand loyal customer share gains in each hub, loyalty program EBITDA doubling thesis, and fact that stripping out macro/Newark headwinds, 2025 delivered more than a full margin point improvement.
Calendar 2025 Q1
there were comments around international non-US origin volumes down Europe down six, Canada down nine. Offset by the increase in US originated international traffic
Show response
Andrew noted modest non-US origin decline easily offset by US origin demand. Pacific leading, Japan phenomenally strong, South Pacific very good.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How are you thinking about your deployment priorities towards your leverage targets with the voluntary prepayments as well versus share repurchases
Show response
Mike confirmed balancing deleveraging and buybacks, with $1.4B authorization remaining and path to sub-2x leverage in 2025.
BAThe Boeing Company7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Maybe how do we think about profitability from here? And if you could just update us on the fixed-price programs
Show response
CFO gave a full-year BDS margin figure without a multi-year forecast; CEO ranked KC-46 as low risk and named Starliner as the open item pending NASA replanning.
Calendar 2026 Q1
I wanted to ask your thoughts on the conflict in the Middle East and potential impacts to deliveries, your commercial services and weapons businesses
Show response
Ortberg provided clear quantification of exposure (14% of backlog, 2/3 beyond 2030) and practical mitigation (12-18 month resequencing). Noted no customer delivery changes requested and airline customers willing to pull forward.
Calendar 2025 Q4
do we think about 737 and 787 cash margins in the near term? How much they're depressed longer term as well
Show response
Malave confirmed margins depressed but expected to improve from backlog pricing, Spirit productivity and synergies over time. Spirit not expected to materially impact long-term cash flow targets.
Calendar 2025 Q3
albeit a modest Q4 free cash flow exit rate, just a modest number, how do we think about 2026
Show response
Malave bridged Q3 to Q4: BDS tanker seasonality >$1B positive, offset by lower 777 deliveries, higher interest payments, and potential $700M DOJ payment. Too early for 2026 framework.
Calendar 2025 Q2
How do you think about the 0 for 0 with EU? How do you think that the order momentum builds from here
Show response
Ortberg highlighted Japan zero-for-zero would help most on input costs. Trade-driven demand boosting orders. Pricing managed to reflect constrained supply environment. Still watching China and USMCA.
Calendar 2025 Q1
How are we thinking about production ramps outside 2025 with the 37 and the 87 rates and how you're watching the biggest risks
Show response
Ortberg confirmed rate plan: 38 to 42 to 47 to 52 on MAX with minimum six months between breaks. 787 targeting double-digit rates with $1B Charleston investment. No demand pullback seen.
Calendar 2024 Q4
it seems like the timing to stabilize those keeps getting pushed to the right. How are you actively managing those programs
Show response
Ortberg acknowledged disappointment but pointed to MOAs with Air Force. Could not claim victory, acknowledged more work ahead. West confirmed charges flow through over 3 years.
GEGE Aerospace7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
what degree of uncertainty you've maintained in the guidance, because it seems like the service orders have been very good, up 22% in Q2
Show response
Culp explained the dynamic environment and conservatism; Ghai walked through H1-to-H2 services bridge and tougher comps.
Calendar 2026 Q1
services up 39% in Q1—great quarter both on shop visits and spare parts—and Q2 expected to be up high teens, implying only mid- to high-single digits in the second half
Show response
Ghai explained H2 conservatism is precautionary, not driven by observable demand weakness. Retirement rates in Q1 were sub-1% vs 2% assumed, and no increase in parked aircraft.
Calendar 2025 Q4
CES profit guidance for '26, if you could walk through margins at the midpoint, it implies margins are flat
Show response
Rahul confirmed margins expected flattish in 2026 despite ending 2025 about 70 basis points better than October guidance. Key offset is $3.5B services revenue growth dropping through at healthy rate despite LEAP becoming bigger share. 9X shipments, lower spare ratio, and R&D are headwinds.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how much of that is pure volume unlock through FLIGHT DECK in the supply chain versus tariff price surcharges or any other factors
Show response
Rahul attributed outperformance to improved material availability driving higher volumes, increasing work scopes, and strong demand environment. Q4 step-down is seasonal, driven by spare parts. Full-year services outlook raised by more than $1 billion.
Calendar 2025 Q2
LEAP aftermarket profitability, it's been a major contributor to CES performance year-to-date. Can you talk about
Show response
Rahul outlined four LEAP service margin drivers: fixed cost leverage from growing shop visits, mid-single-digit pricing discipline, external aftermarket channel growing to 30% by 2030, and repair revenue expansion.
Calendar 2025 Q1
How do we think about the margin cadence in Q2 and the second half as we think about those tariffs coming in?
Show response
Rahul guided Q2 profit flat-to-sequentially up from Q1, services momentum continuing, with conservatism embedded in 2H for China and departures.
Calendar 2024 Q4
services, you raised the guidance here from just one month ago to low to mid-teens. Can you talk about the moving pieces
Show response
Rahul detailed favorable spare parts mix, shop visit revenue expectations of mid-teens growth, and explained the CES profit cadence through 2025.
LDOSLeidos7 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
As we think about the removal of the incentive fees in Q2 and for the remaining part of the year.
Show response
Bell pointed to the Q4 run rate as the 2027 baseline and stressed quality and veteran experience still matter to the VA; the managed health market is projected to grow from $13 billion to $15 billion by 2030.
Calendar 2026 Q1
if you could just talk about profitability and the impact within Defense contracting 150 bps, how much of it was from the fixed price program
Show response
Cage attributed Defense margin decline to Wide Field of View Tranche 1 fixed-price development program. Highlighted IFPC, PoNS, and AVAD programs ramping with superior economic profiles that will trend profitability positively through the year as production volumes increase.
Calendar 2025 Q3
How do you think about the growth within that segment and just moving past DOGE and potential like issues with civil customers
Show response
Bell highlighted 10 franchise programs across air defense, counter-UAS, hypersonics, Black Arrow cruise missile, and maritime autonomy. Cage added federal services portfolio proving resilient with mid-single-digit DigiMod growth despite DOGE.
Calendar 2025 Q2
How do we think about just health growth going forward, whether it's the rural health program
Show response
Bell reported record health exam volumes at 5,000 cases/day in June with over 25% market share. Cage confirmed DHMSM extension secured for another year and RFI for VA/DoD EHR consolidation emerging as future opportunity.
Calendar 2025 Q1
the skinny budget included funding accelerating for the VA EHR modernization work where Leidos is a sub to Oracle
Show response
Bell positioned managed health services as a NorthStar growth pillar with growing VBA volumes. Cage noted long successful Oracle partnership and potential to expand into VA EHR rollout over time.
are the margins in Q1 reflective of the full year performance, is that how we should think about it?
Show response
Cage confirmed strong Q1 margins are sustainable, citing well-funded managed health business and ongoing VA dialogue to sustain and increase activity levels.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you talk about VBA since you've tackled those head on. The VBA recompete was awarded earlier this year
Show response
Bell confirmed confidence in VBA profitability for 2025-2026 despite a new entrant. Pivoted to emphasize North Star 2030 growth pillars broaden growth beyond medical exams. Cage noted ongoing innovation to drive efficiencies.
LHXL3Harris7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
How do we think about growth for the Missile Solutions segment from here as the frameworks are being pulled together
Show response
Sharp guided high-teens missile growth for the foreseeable future, with acceleration as ~60 factories come online in 2027-2029.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Can we talk about the ISR portfolio, how that did? Was it -- how is it growing? How is South Korea coming in?
Show response
CEO disclosed $40B international ISR pipeline. Highlighted South Korea win leading to NATO follow-on order months later, describing momentum as unheard of in his career.
Calendar 2025 Q4
How robust has that growth been in '25 and expectations over the next few years?
Show response
Kubasik confirmed international SDR deliveries growing into 2026. Domestically, Army running experimentation and demos. Software-defined radios remain a competitive advantage.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I could start off on ISR, Chris, because I think that's the segment that's been improving the most
Show response
Kubasik credited leadership changes and execution focus. ISR backlog doubled in 12 months with strong classified growth. International Armed Overwatch, Canada tanker, Joby Aviation all cited.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Any way you could quantify maybe just specifically TDL and Aerojet hitting their stride
Show response
TDL revenue growing upper single digits with margins approaching CS segment level. AR targeting $5B revenue by end of decade with diverse portfolio of missile solutions.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can we talk about the airborne side of the business? What do you see as prospects there?
Show response
Kubasik confirmed 2025 is F-35 revenue low point before TR3 production ramp in 2026. LHX has content on virtually every aircraft platform.
Calendar 2024 Q4
You raised it by $200 million and 40% drops through to the bottom line, it's about an extra 30 bps on top of your peer high margin
Show response
Kubasik detailed supply chain, facility rationalization, and digital transformation as key cost savings buckets, with $2B total removed in six years.
RTXRTX Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
tease out the puts and takes in Pratt sales growth for the quarter, aftermarket up 25%, military up 23%, OE down 8%
Show response
Calio said Pratt OE dollar decline was mix-driven despite large engine deliveries up 15%, prioritizing MRO material flow to keep cutting GTF AOGs.
Calendar 2026 Q1
How would we think about 2026 guidance which suggests the rest of the year margins are flat to down slightly versus Q1, which would sort of buck the seasonal trend?
Show response
Mitchill noted Collins margins steady rest of year due to wide-body OE mix headwind. V2500 retirements expected at 1-2% rate. Q1 shop visits on track for full-year run rate of ~800. PW2000/4000 planned structured decline not changing outlook.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Collins embed 70 basis points of margin expansion. 40 basis points of that is the divestiture benefit. So only 30 bps organically.
Show response
Mitchill noted tariffs were 90bps drag on Collins FY2025 margins. Expects $75M lower tariff headwind YoY in 2026 but extra quarter of expense in Q1. FY2026 will see 80bps margin expansion at midpoint. Digitization and footprint streamlining driving structural cost reduction.
Calendar 2025 Q3
you raised commercial OE revenue guidance by [ $150 million ] at Pratt pointing to mix. How do we think about
Show response
Mitchill clarified $1.1B Pratt revenue increase: $150M OE (mix, not GTFA), $100M defense (Lot 18 F135), rest in aftermarket. Negative engine margin still $150-200M for year.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the guidance is now double-digit aftermarket growth for Pratt after 24% in H1 implies a steep deceleration.
Show response
Calio said V2500 program strength extending beyond prior expectations. Mitchill detailed $800M of Pratt's top-line increase with aftermarket now up mid-teens, OE up $300M.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how do we think about that across the rest of the Q2 to Q4 and across the segments? Is there any timing mismatch where it hits Collins first and Pratt in '26?
Show response
Mitchill broke down $850M: Raytheon ~$0.01/share, remainder split evenly Collins/Pratt at ~$400M each. Back-half loaded on earnings, cash impact ~15-20% higher due to drawback timing.
Calendar 2024 Q4
2024, if we look at the OE growth, it was about 21%. GTF deliveries were up 14%. So, is that seven-point delta all price on spares on GTF?
Show response
Mitchill explained mix shift toward installs in 2025 with ~$500M aftermarket profit drop-through, offset by $150-200M negative engine margin headwind.
HWMHowmet Aerospace6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
What are you seeing in the competitive dynamics at play in the IGT market
Show response
John cited Howmet's >50% global IGT turbine-blade share and ongoing capacity investment in Japan, Europe and Virginia plus new applications as the basis for supporting customer ramps.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Maybe if you could just give us greater depth in terms of the market that opens up, the product offering
Show response
Plant explained CAM expands into fittings and couplings adjacent to fasteners. Bruner provides capability in longer-length, wider-diameter bolts for aerospace and industrial. Both are in high-margin, high-return segments.
Calendar 2025 Q3
where do you see Howmet's end state just given where the balance sheet is, leverage is at record lows, margins in each segment are terrific
Show response
Plant emphasized growth as the bigger value driver over next 5 years. Highlighted AI and machine learning in manufacturing, digital thread traceability, and next-gen yield improvements. Investor Day planned for March 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q2
If you could update us on the timing of maybe the revenue contributions from the various engine expansions you've announced across aero and IGT
Show response
Plant detailed four facilities: Michigan aero plant producing Q4 2025, Tennessee extension underway, Japan IGT plant and European extension both targeting 2H 2026, full bore in 2027.
Calendar 2025 Q1
the margins are implied to step down 100 bps. So from 28.5% [ph] to 27.5% [ph], but the net tariff impact is only about 15 bps of that.
Show response
Plant attributed margin step-down to commercial truck volume decline, tariff drag, new facility buildout costs, and hiring ~1,000 more employees. Still targeting north of 28% for balance of year.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you talk about the step down in engines margins in Q4? They were down about 450 bps quarter over quarter. A surprise given the continued volume growth there
Show response
Plant dismissed Q4 engine margin dip as noise from LEAP-1A changeover costs. Confirmed changeover is behind them and costs won't recur in 2025.
LUVSouthwest Airlines6 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Maybe can you just parse out the tailwinds and headwinds, if possible, on the sequential deceleration
Show response
Bob insists the sequential change is solely the higher comp base from 2025 initiatives, with no deceleration in demand, fares, or product performance.
Calendar 2026 Q1
at what fuel price do you make further changes to capacity
Show response
Bob declined to specify a fuel threshold, noting 8-10% daily swings make it hypothetical. Southwest will be aggressive in redeploying capacity but already started with a disciplined plan. Tom noted the large unencumbered fleet provides flexibility to adjust retirements and retentions as needed.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I'd love to hear what feedback you're getting on the product segmentation. Are customers even aware? How has that changed your promotional activity
Show response
Bob emphasized people and service as the enduring differentiator, unchanged from Monday to Tuesday. Andrew detailed Chicago Midway advantages: strong network, lower costs enabling great deals, superior reliability vs O'Hare, and hospitality reflected in NPS scores.
Calendar 2025 Q3
just if you could fill in the details on the corporate growth, how you're thinking about that filtering into your sales numbers
Show response
Andrew reported corporate sales ex-government inflected to +5% YoY in Q3. Domestic managed business share in mid-teens, below overall capacity share. Extra legroom and assigned seating expected to provide corporate share tailwinds in Q1.
Calendar 2025 Q1
How realistic is it that Southwest and its initiatives buck that normal relationship that you trade off one for the other?
Show response
Andrew explained yield and load factor improvements target different flight segments: yield optimization on full peak flights, load factor improvement via connectivity and basic economy on off-peak flights. Not a traditional trade-off since each addresses distinct inventory.
could you talk about Bob or Andrew, whoever would like the expansion into mediums like Google Flights and Expedia and how the yields you're experiencing there relative to volumes
Show response
Andrew noted Expedia ramped faster than Google Flights, representing 4-5% of recent bookings with a majority of new-to-Southwest customers. Particularly helpful in cities where Southwest is underweight like Boston and New York. Cost-effective customer acquisition.
LMTLockheed Martin4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
How do we think about just the CapEx efficiencies that you're seeing and how we think about 27
Show response
Jim attributed the CapEx reduction to timing and efficiency partnerships while reaffirming the $8-9 billion munitions investment commitment.
Calendar 2025 Q4
In the past, Jim, maybe you've talked about a target framework with low single-digit revenue growth in the single digits and 10 to 20 basis points of margin expansion. In light of what we've seen r...
Show response
Jim confirmed upside to prior growth model on revenue and operating profit once ramp-up margin compression passes. Evan ranked segments: MFC fastest growth, Space second (strategic missile defense + classified), with margin dilution from prior loss programs working down over next couple years creating out-year margin opportunity.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can we talk about just the moving pieces of that bridge inclusive of pension and CapEx?
Show response
Evan clarified no weakness in 2025 FCF vs prior estimates, just intent to pre-fund 2026 pension. 2026 assumes $1B pension with partial offset from cash earnings. No change to prior 2026 guidance.
Calendar 2025 Q2
if we could touch upon the $4.6 billion tax liability commentary. What's that related to?
Show response
Evan explained IRS dispute over ASC 606 accounting method. For 2026 FCF: Aero classified ~$400M drag, MFC classified $200-250M, ~$1B pension contribution, offset by tax legislation benefits. Jim likened IRS claim to a value-added tax approach.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| HON Honeywell International Inc. | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions |
| TDG TransDigm Group | 11 | 18%2 of 11 questions |
| TXT Textron | 11 | 18%2 of 11 questions |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions |
| DAL Delta Air Lines | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions |
| BA The Boeing Company | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions |
| GE GE Aerospace | 7 | 43%3 of 7 questions |
| LDOS Leidos | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
- GDGeneral Dynamics · 12 questions0%none of 12 questions
- HONHoneywell International Inc. · 12 questions17%2 of 12 questions
- TDGTransDigm Group · 11 questions18%2 of 11 questions
- TXTTextron · 11 questions18%2 of 11 questions
- NOCNorthrop Grumman · 10 questions10%1 of 10 questions
- DALDelta Air Lines · 8 questions0%none of 8 questions
- UALUnited Airlines Holdings · 8 questions0%none of 8 questions
- BAThe Boeing Company · 7 questions14%1 of 7 questions
- GEGE Aerospace · 7 questions43%3 of 7 questions
- LDOSLeidos · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 18 | 6%1 of 18 questions | 13 |
| 2025 Q1 | 22 | 18%4 of 22 questions | 14 |
| 2025 Q2 | 18 | 22%4 of 18 questions | 13 |
| 2025 Q3 | 17 | 0%none of 17 questions | 15 |
| 2025 Q4 | 17 | 18%3 of 17 questions | 12 |
| 2026 Q1 | 15 | 20%3 of 15 questions | 13 |
| 2026 Q2 | 14 | 7%1 of 14 questions | 13 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q418 questions · challenge rate 6% (1 of 18 questions) · 13 companies
- 2025 Q122 questions · challenge rate 18% (4 of 22 questions) · 14 companies
- 2025 Q218 questions · challenge rate 22% (4 of 18 questions) · 13 companies
- 2025 Q317 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 17 questions) · 15 companies
- 2025 Q417 questions · challenge rate 18% (3 of 17 questions) · 12 companies
- 2026 Q115 questions · challenge rate 20% (3 of 15 questions) · 13 companies
- 2026 Q214 questions · challenge rate 7% (1 of 14 questions) · 13 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand45
- Margin44
- Revenue Growth35
- Competitive Dynamics17
- Capex Investment15
- Supply Chain12
- Product Launch11
- Geographic Expansion8
- Capital Allocation8
- Cost Pressure8
Show all 18 topics
- Regulation Policy7
- Pricing7
- Trade Tariffs7
- Guidance Reliability6
- Innovation & R&D4
- Macroeconomic4
- M&A3
- Labor Market1