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Analyst

Stephen Grambling

Morgan Stanley · covers Consumer Cyclical

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).

Questions
59on tracked calls
Challenge rate
7%4 of 59 questions
Companies
7questioned at least once
Reporting periods
7with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 59 of 59 questions from 7 companies

MGMMGM Resorts12 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
MGM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

how do you think about whether BetMGM U. S. Is being maximizing its current form as a JV?

M&ACapital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Hornbuckle said the JV is in good shape and nothing is contemplated, but did not address the specific question about a ROFR or other legal constraints on restructuring.

Calendar 2026 Q1

Is there something structurally changing there as we think about either the player type or the bet types or even the technology being implemented

Geographic ExpansionRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Bill noted increasing adoption of side bets with higher house advantage. Kenny said side bets only got popular post-pandemic. Rolling out more this week following ICG approval. Too early to adjust theoretical mass hold given short history and premium mass volatility.

does that make you reconsider monetizing other assets as a way to surface value?

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Jonathan said dispositions are strategically guided, not valuation-driven. Mirage, Gold Strike, and Northfield all sold for strategic reasons. Valuations just highlight disconnect with enterprise value. Not triggering further sales.

Calendar 2025 Q4

how should investors think about the right level of potentially parent-level buyback versus MGM China maybe buying back there where I think you mentioned you saw value?

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Jonathan said share buybacks always in capital allocation mix given free cash flow from operations, China distributions, and BetMGM. Bill clarified MGM China has about 22% float requirement that exchange is pushing to increase, so parent-level buyback is preferred path to capture China discount.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Are there any organizational changes or bylaws to consider that need to be thought through as we think about the timing or path?

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Bill confirmed no organizational changes or bylaws needed to pursue BetMGM unlock. Great relationship with Entain partner.

what do you view as the primary levers or path that you could pursue to unlock value from here? And I know you referenced diversification, but is there also a path of simplification to consider?

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Bill identified BetMGM unlock as primary near-term value creation lever, constantly discussing with Entain. Enjoys Macau position with 56.7% ownership. Jonathan added dividend streams from China and BetMGM plus better cost structure in Vegas as additional unlocks.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Anything that you're seeing at this point, looking out to Formula 1 relative to last year?

Show response

Bill feels much better about F1 2025. Repriced with 65%+ tickets sold. Two race events this year plus special Fountain programming. $1M Fountain Club sale just yesterday.

I saw in the deck that the overall CapEx moved a little bit lower for the year, which was maybe surprising in the context of some of the benefits from the Big Beautiful Bill

Show response

Jonathan said normal refinement, no projects stopped. Aria room renovation to begin late Q2/early Q3 2026. Bill noted OPERA Cloud migration delayed 2 months for caution but now progressing.

Calendar 2025 Q1

are there other opportunities to create value either by monetizing assets or simplifying the story that you're thinking about

Capital AllocationM&ATranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Jonathan highlighted arbitrage between past asset sales (11-15x) and current buyback at implied 3.3x. Bill noted Northfield Park and Springfield dispositions are ongoing discussions.

is there any way to think about the contribution from an omnichannel standpoint, the benefits that you're getting outside of just that MGM individually

Innovation & R&DDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Bill described rewards ecosystem driving cross-channel engagement in Detroit and capital area. Jonathan confirmed trips and spend up significantly from omnichannel customers.

Calendar 2024 Q4

I just wondering if there's any color you could provide on Chinese New Year, how we started the year, just given all the noise from a tariff and otherwise

Geographic ExpansionDemandTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Kenny Feng confirmed strong CNY with traffic up 18% YoY, higher gaming volume, maintained mid-teens market share, and notably longer tail of activity.

is there any color you could provide on how to think about the run rate wages and any other puts and takes on the expenses for Vegas in particular?

Cost PressureLabor MarketTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Bill explained culinary agreement step-ups declining from ~12% to ~6% to now 4% range. FTEs flat while maintaining service levels.

WYNNWynn Resorts12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 12 challenging
WYNN company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Curious how you think about the net impact from the World Cup perhaps?

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Grambling asked about the World Cup net impact and Encore renovation drag; management cited solid July drop and RevPAR growth and pegged the drag at $2 million to $4 million per quarter into 1H next year.

is this driving incremental customers? Or is it just increased play from existing customers?

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Grambling asked whether the Chairman's Club drives new customers or more existing play; management said it is designed to do both and to increase dwell time.

Calendar 2026 Q1

would love to hear any kind of response and impact that you're starting to see from some of the recent CapEx projects there, particularly the Chairman's Club.

Capex InvestmentDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Two initiatives: Gourmet Pavilion driving incremental foot traffic and retention; Chairman's Club showing early signs of keeping customers around longer with positive hold implications. Enclave will push new customers through both existing facilities.

Can you just remind us of the cadence there and if anything has changed in terms of the timing?

Show response

Timing unchanged. Commencing shortly, done in pockets over remainder of 2026 and into very early 2027, working around peak occupancy points.

Calendar 2025 Q3

What are you seeing in terms of the competitive dynamics, particularly as the quarter progressed, given there's some chatter from some of your peers that there might be a little bit more promotions...

Competitive DynamicsMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Management hasn't seen material notable uptick in promotional activity. Has clear view of how much GGR share needed to justify reinvestment. Views margin as outcome of driving revenues, reinvesting profitably, managing costs, not a target.

would love to hear any additional color you could give on how to think about the disruption impact in Las Vegas and also how to think about perhaps the return on some of these projects as we look b...

Capex InvestmentMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Management has not quantified Encore remodel impact; will attempt to offset with rate. Some CapEx is maintenance (Encore rooms), but F&B changes are absolutely ROI-driven with incremental covers and check average growth.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Is it skewed to specific submarkets within China versus Hong Kong? Is it new customers versus returning younger

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Management noted large influx of new customers post-reopening, lots of high-quality premium mass play. Mix has been consistent since reopening with no sea change in who's showing up.

Curious if there was any timing of costs in there or other puts and takes to think about?

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Julie confirmed not timing-related; it's ongoing diligent management with flexible staffing. Corporate expense had some 20th anniversary event timing. Craig firmly noted this is real operational excellence.

Calendar 2025 Q1

how do you think about synergies from operating as one business across multiple properties globally

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Management firmly defended conglomerate structure citing cross-property play, global marketing efficiencies, capital structure advantages, and development redeployment capability.

what's your latest thoughts and maybe any timing thoughts on New York as a development opportunity?

Geographic ExpansionCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Management noted RFAs to be submitted by end of June with licenses awarded end of 2025/early 2026. Raised concerns about online gaming impact, tariffs on build costs, and complicated local politics.

Calendar 2024 Q4

if you don't get the response that you you want and the stock kinda stays in place, are there other options you have

ChallengingCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management firmly rejected asset-light/OpCo-PropCo structures, framing them as financing transactions rather than value creation, and reiterated buyback commitment until Al Marjan value crystallizes.

what are some of the mitigation factors that did put in place to offset some of the the wage inflation we've been seeing.

Cost PressureLabor MarketTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Management described hundreds of small cost efficiencies that don't impact guest experience, noting 2025 has much more modest union cost increases. Tariff impact limited to F&B procurement.

LVSLas Vegas Sands11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 11 challenging
LVS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

your promo was down sequentially still up year over year. Is it down sequentially predominantly because of the World Cup

PricingCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Management clarified reinvestment was flat sequentially after adjusting for hold and mix, with no change in competitive dynamics.

Calendar 2026 Q1

Can you just remind us of some of the timing of some of the renovations and work that you're doing

Show response

Grant outlined Venetian renovation: standard suites returning Q3 2026, high-end suites and villas by end of 2027/early 2028. Lodoner Grand results validate the investment thesis.

is the comment about having being able to attract the highest end customer, meaning that you're hitting some kind of threshold where you just don't have enough space

DemandCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Patrick confirmed capacity constraints at the high end, went from 132 to 770 suites but need more. IR2 will add suites, entertainment, ballrooms, and culinary to multiply the offering.

Calendar 2025 Q4

how does this influence any strategy around renovations or reinvestment into other properties

Capex InvestmentCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Patrick described plans to add better room product, amenities, and service across the portfolio as part of an ongoing Macao investment cycle.

Does this eventually shift back to dividends as we get through this reinvestment cycle

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Patrick said SCL dividend increases are the goal as cash flows grow. At the LVS level, aggressive buybacks will continue alongside the dividend given cash flow flexibility.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Would love any further color you could provide on kind of characterizing the strength that we've seen in VIP

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Grant attributed VIP growth to concentration of super high-end players, increased market liquidity, and LVS entering the junket market this quarter.

just maybe a willingness to buyback some of the shares in Hong Kong as well. So I wonder if you any thoughts that you have there

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Patrick confirmed SCL ownership is near the 75% ceiling so further purchases are limited. Dividend increases at SCL and continued LVS buybacks are the capital return focus.

Calendar 2025 Q2

What does that mean for capital allocation in that market? You used to have a pretty healthy dividend payout in that market

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Patrick confirmed intention to grow SCL dividend as Londoner CapEx rolls off, with payout levels based on forward cash flow expectations.

remind us of how you're thinking about turning the tide from a competitive standpoint and what KPIs or timing investors should maybe be thinking about

Competitive DynamicsRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Grant described the reinvestment pivot starting late April with encouraging early results. Patrick added they are not where they want to be and have work to do.

Calendar 2025 Q1

I'm curious if there's any thought process on some of the ones that maybe have lagged in terms of how you will reinvigorate growth there

Competitive DynamicsRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Grant outlined a 6-12 month ramp plan for Londoner while maintaining growth at Venetian, Parisian, Four Seasons, and Sands across all segments.

does the initial read in what you're seeing there change the way you think about CapEx and allocating capital across the different properties

Show response

Patrick expressed strong long-term conviction in Macao investment. Grant noted major structural work on Londoner is complete, with regular renovations continuing.

MARMarriott International8 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
MAR company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Just wondering if if there’s anything that investors should be thinking about in terms of how that will ramp over time.

Revenue GrowthCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Capuano quantified the co-brand ramp: $30M incremental in 2026, building to $100-125M by full-year 2028 at the current 26% royalty rate.

Calendar 2026 Q1

it looks like the investment spend ticked up a bit versus the prior guide

Capex InvestmentCloud & AITranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Tony clarified the increase was almost entirely Lefay wellness brand acquisition. Jen indicated 2027 investment categories should remain similar in size and scope.

Calendar 2025 Q4

what these partnerships entail. Are these more about testing distribution channels, and are you providing access to inventory and data?

Cloud & AIInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Tony described Google partnership for AI-mode property search with natural language and comparison. OpenAI is early ad pilot. Emphasized collaborating with biggest AI companies to shape evolving distribution landscape.

Calendar 2025 Q3

it looks like you had a sequential improvement in the under construction in particular, also grew pretty substantially year-over-year

Geographic ExpansionCreditTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Leeny cited conversions as key driver. Marriott has 29% of U.S. new-build signings and 28% under construction. Saw pickup in Q3 construction starts but still meaningfully below 2019. Need more financing improvement for dramatic pickup.

Calendar 2025 Q2

where are we in the technology transformation project as it relates to timing and spend, and what are some of the major changes both owners and travelers can expect

Innovation & R&DCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Tony outlined CRS/PMS rollout starting in H2 2025 at select service. AI incubator working on concierge, customer engagement centers, and Homes & Villas. Leeny noted heaviest tech spend in 2024-2026, ~$100M above normal.

Calendar 2025 Q1

I'm curious if you saw anything in the spend on the co-brand credit card that may suggest any kind of stocking up, more focus on goods or retail

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Leeny noted continued strong travel prioritization in card spend. Lower-tier leisure showing some weaker demand but nothing super obvious in credit card data.

I'd love to hear just how you think about the fee per room kind of trajectory that's embedded within the pipeline and any capital support

Revenue GrowthCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Tony noted average key money per deal declined in 2024 despite growing system. Leeny highlighted fees per key growing from RevPAR growth, international mix, and non-RevPAR fees.

Calendar 2024 Q4

if you could zoom out to compare kind of the 2025 outlook versus then what perhaps surprised to the upside? What's been a bit more of a challenge?

Guidance ReliabilityRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Leeny confirmed the Investor Day framework remains intact with midpoint guidance of 7.5-8% rooms+RevPAR growth. Tax rate updated to ~26% from earlier estimate.

DKNGDraftKings Inc.7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 7 challenging
DKNG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Why do you think you're able to capture a different customer and why will that be the same in prediction markets?

ChallengingCompetitive DynamicsDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Robins said non-OSB states draw similar customers, while OSB-state predictions volume is largely professional syndicates, so predictions is incremental.

Calendar 2026 Q1

It looks like in the quarter that the promotional effectiveness improved on the core OSB side

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Robins credited a stable competitive environment, data-driven optimization, rising hold rates and parlay mix for promo efficiency gains.

Calendar 2025 Q4

give a little bit more detail on perhaps what you're seeing in terms of NGR spend in some of the older states

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Robins said both penetration and monetization matter; parlay mix (up 300bps in January) and AI-optimized promo are multi-year levers.

Calendar 2025 Q3

whether parlays also increase the overall volatility of hold. So what do you think are the biggest opportunities to dampen the volatility over time?

Show response

Robins said concentrated events (NFL weekends, Super Bowl) drive swings, but risk management keeps negative outcomes near 5% of revenue.

Calendar 2025 Q2

can you just help us think about what opportunities exist within state access fees, data rights fees and/or payments or otherwise?

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Robins flagged renegotiating older partner rates, optimizing payments and AI/AWS efficiency as multi-year COGS-stack upside.

Calendar 2025 Q1

How should we be thinking about where promotions as a percentage of handle should shake out in the year

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Robins said promo as a percent of GGR keeps declining as new-user mix shrinks, though it could flatten as a percent of hold.

Calendar 2024 Q4

what are some of the major puts and takes that will influence the promotional reinvestment here

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Robins deferred the detailed modeling to IR but confirmed a meaningful decline in promotional intensity is expected.

HLTHilton Worldwide6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 6 challenging
HLT company page →

Calendar 2026 Q1

Can you elaborate on how this compares to a typical brand agreement? And what are some of the guardrails

Competitive DynamicsRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Nassetta confirmed Select brand fees are consistent with standard franchise economics on a per-room basis. Emphasized high turndown ratio and quality-first filter for brand admissions.

Calendar 2025 Q4

love to get your latest thoughts on how overall development environment is changing both in terms of competition and then also the use of key money

Capital AllocationCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Nassetta said key money at 9% of deals, 85-90% in upper upscale and above. Conversions expected 30-40% range going forward, permanently above historical mid-to-upper 20s. Jacobs added financing environment improving, supporting both conversions and ground-up.

Calendar 2025 Q3

how do you think about potentially partnering with some of these companies as another source of distribution

Cloud & AICompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Nassetta outlined three AI buckets: process efficiency, go-to-market/distribution, and customer experience. Emphasized 41 active use cases, cloud-based tech stack (90% in cloud), and fulfillment control as strategic advantage in AI-driven distribution landscape.

Calendar 2025 Q2

What development trends are you seeing there? And if we continue to see weakness in that market or other factors may be impacting development

ChallengingGeographic ExpansionMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Nassetta attributed China RevPAR softness to government austerity campaign; expects short-lived. Development metrics all up YoY in China, signings, starts, openings, driven by hotel undersupply and real estate reformatting.

Calendar 2025 Q1

if the market or economy does take a turn lower, where would you generally expect to see that deterioration first in this environment

MacroeconomicMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Nassetta emphasized model resilience: 70%+ EBITDA margin, low leverage, no near-term maturities, and battle-tested team that gained 1000+ bps of margin through COVID.

Calendar 2024 Q4

coming out of ALICE, it seemed like there was a lot of skepticism around the development backdrop just given where returns are versus interest rates

ChallengingCapex InvestmentCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Nassetta acknowledged development friction but noted improving optimism on M&A and new builds as costs stabilize, rates expected to decline, and capital availability improves.

Show 1 more company
HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
HOG company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

You’re talking about inventory levels adjusting accordingly for the Back to the Bricks.

Show response

Pressed for the magnitude of the inventory adjustment implied by Back to the Bricks. Starrs declined to quantify, saying he was not forecasting a material change from current levels.

Calendar 2025 Q3

you had talked about market responsive customer-facing promotions. I was wondering if you could just elaborate

Show response

Root gave concrete mechanics, lower APR and extended terms, plus price-point experimentation carrying into the 2026 model year.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Why was the 4.9% equity sale the right level sold? Are there any tax ramifications to think through

Capital AllocationRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Root explained the FDIC constraint via Eaglemark Savings Bank and confirmed the $1.25 billion is pre-tax, but could not answer the exchange rate part.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
MGM MGM Resorts120%none of 12 questions
WYNN Wynn Resorts128%1 of 12 questions
LVS Las Vegas Sands110%none of 11 questions
MAR Marriott International80%none of 8 questions
DKNG DraftKings Inc.714%1 of 7 questions
HLT Hilton Worldwide633%2 of 6 questions
HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc.30%none of 3 questions
  • MGM
    MGM Resorts · 12 questions
    0%none of 12 questions
  • WYNN
    Wynn Resorts · 12 questions
    8%1 of 12 questions
  • LVS
    Las Vegas Sands · 11 questions
    0%none of 11 questions
  • MAR
    Marriott International · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • DKNG
    DraftKings Inc. · 7 questions
    14%1 of 7 questions
  • HLT
    Hilton Worldwide · 6 questions
    33%2 of 6 questions
  • HOG
    Harley-Davidson, Inc. · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q4729%2 of 7 questions5
2025 Q1100%none of 10 questions6
2025 Q21010%1 of 10 questions7
2025 Q3100%none of 10 questions7
2025 Q460%none of 6 questions5
2026 Q190%none of 9 questions6
2026 Q2714%1 of 7 questions6
  1. 2024 Q47 questions · challenge rate 29% (2 of 7 questions) · 5 companies
  2. 2025 Q110 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 10 questions) · 6 companies
  3. 2025 Q210 questions · challenge rate 10% (1 of 10 questions) · 7 companies
  4. 2025 Q310 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 10 questions) · 7 companies
  5. 2025 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 5 companies
  6. 2026 Q19 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 6 companies
  7. 2026 Q27 questions · challenge rate 14% (1 of 7 questions) · 6 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Competitive Dynamics16
  • Capital Allocation15
  • Demand14
  • Capex Investment12
  • Revenue Growth9
  • Margin9
  • Geographic Expansion5
  • M&A4
  • Cost Pressure4
  • Pricing3
Show all 18 topics
  • Cloud & AI3
  • Innovation & R&D3
  • Macroeconomic3
  • Labor Market2
  • Inventory1
  • Credit1
  • Regulation Policy1
  • Guidance Reliability1