Steve Scala

Massacesi gave a general risk-mitigation framework and separated the two delays, but did not state where the prior study conduct remediation now stands.

Lenkowsky reaffirmed the prior step-down expectation and noted U.S. sales carry forward, offset by the European patent expiry in mid-Q4.

Adam attributed 2026 growth to CPI penalty elimination from WAC reduction. Step down in 2027 driven by EU LOE with expected rapid generic erosion. Strategic reserve contribution not material.

Adam noted negotiations officially conclude tomorrow. Pomalyst will have lost exclusivity by the time MSP takes effect January 2027, so minimal impact expected. Price to be public by November 30.

Samit confirmed no regulatory discussions yet. Still reviewing data including patient distribution across cohorts. Will share findings at future conferences.

Samit confirmed PsA submissions made globally. SLE trials enrolling well based on Phase II learnings. Careful real-time data cleaning. Sjogren's also enrolling.

Samit declined to speculate on regulatory path, noting additional endpoints still need review before engaging regulators on next steps.

Samit confirmed AF enrollment complete but event rate low. ACS/SSP readout still expected 2026, AF in 2027. Will communicate if timelines change.

Samit confirmed backup TYK2 studies completed but not advancing currently. All resources focused on SOTYKTU franchise maximization.

Samit confirmed both trials tracking well with good enrollment but readouts firmly expected at back end of 2026, not 2025.

Chris confirmed the Tilrekimig study will be a head-to-head Phase III against Dupixent powered for superiority; a direct answer.

Boshoff confirmed stable placebo arm with full data at ADA; Bourla reiterated Vyndaqel patent loss assumed in 2028 with no further comment on settlement strategy.

Bourla defended extensive due diligence and pricing; characterized Novo offer as repeat effort to catch and kill emerging competitor by gaining de facto control without regulatory scrutiny.

Bourla cited confidentiality of individual company agreements with administration; confirmed some deal elements are public while others are confidential.

Denton declined to quantify MFN assumptions; on COVID, confirmed no change in expectations but derisking Q3/Q4 delivery in guidance given seasonal uncertainty.

Bourla declined to share specifics but confirmed ample US capacity especially for injectables, with ability to transfer production without building new facilities.

Bourla noted MFN absent from president's executive order; priorities are pill penalty, 340B, PBM reform, and lowering patient costs.

Chris Boshoff confirmed Q1 data timeline but did not directly address range of outcomes or whether dropping the compound is possible, deferring to data readout.

Boshoff pivoted to structural changes rather than naming specific problems; Bourla praised speed of changes but acknowledged past portfolio selection weakness.

Jeff distinguished current cycle from Great Recession dynamics, attributing aesthetics headwinds to prolonged inflationary pressure not seen in 40 years rather than typical recessionary compression.

Rob directly confirmed expecting both assets to exceed sell-side peak consensus of $33B Skyrizi and $16B Rinvoq, with significant runway beyond current modeling horizon.

Jeff Stewart outlined competitive strategy: head-to-head data vs Entyvio (leading non-IL-23 in UC) as key catalyst, plus Skyrizi subcu induction data closing gap by early 2027. Robert Michael confirmed government agreement provides tariff and pricing mandate exemptions including demonstration projects during the three-year term.

Rob Michael clarified Vraylar/Linzess IRA prices take effect 2027, no impact on 2026. Roopal Thakkar explained HS Phase III week 16 data still expected end of next year; timeline update on ct.gov reflects open-label extension duration changes, not primary endpoint delay.

Jeff Stewart acknowledged this downturn is more chronic than past recessionary periods, compounded by shifting consumer sentiment toward natural look in fillers. Roopal Thakkar detailed Aliada-based next-gen anti-amyloid antibody with blood-brain barrier shuttle technology and long half-life for subcutaneous delivery; patient dosing expected next year. Rob Michael reinforced aesthetics market share stability despite market growth challenges.

Roopal Thakkar outlined stepwise approach: MAD study this year for higher doses, then Phase 2 if successful. Rob Michael addressed manufacturing footprint, noting Skyrizi is made in the US.

Scott Reents explained the 3% to 4% increase was driven by business mix change as immunology and oncology momentum increased Part D channel exposure. Jeff Stewart confirmed no IRA spillover to commercial.

Scott Reents confirmed the updated long-term aesthetics guidance translates to north of $7B by 2029, reflecting reduced market growth assumptions from low double-digits to high single-digits.

Lucas highlighted that 2026 price erosion will be low-to-mid teens vs high single digits in 2025, which investors need to factor. Confirmed early oral GLP-1 competitor data from first four weeks shows mainly market expansion, consistent with Lilly expectations and guidance assumptions.

Anne declined to comment on interim status. Confirmed enrollment complete with event-based readout projected for 2027 but could be earlier. Reframed remternetug as innovation opportunity with subcu dosing and monthly administration, not a signal about donanemab.

Ilya quantified CVS impact as a couple hundred thousand TRx, framing it against 1.7M TRx added in Q2. July TRx returned to ~May average levels. Impact is on growth rate, not absolute growth.

Dave challenged the premise, recalling Taltz strategy was to go from 1-of-1 to 2-of-2 as a follower. Noted obesity has only 2 players with meaningful differentiation, making exclusive formularies less common.

Dave gave a forceful defense of the market opportunity, acknowledging turbulence in H2 2024 projections but expressing zero doubt about continued CapEx need.

Dean Li expressed continued confidence in a second-half 2026 approval timeline, noting the CNPV rolling submission is progressing well with active FDA discussions on labeling and dosing instructions.

Rob pointed to the $70B commercial opportunity, 2025 ex-LOE growth of roughly 5-8%, and ongoing early-stage pipeline plus BD as drivers of long-term sustainable growth.

Caroline attributed the ex-China slowdown to the Japan catch-up cohort ending March 31; reaffirmed $11B target was withdrawn last quarter.