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Analyst

Timm Schulze-Melander

Redburn Atlantic · covers Technology

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).

Questions
21on tracked calls
Challenge rate
10%2 of 21 questions
Companies
5questioned at least once
Reporting periods
7with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 21 of 21 questions from 5 companies

ARMArm Holdings10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 10 challenging
ARM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

what are the things that dictate the timing of R&D cost in the P&L?

Cost PressureInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2027 Q1 →
Show response

Jason answered directly that the shortfall was tool utilization such as emulation and cloud spend, not headcount, and guided OpEx to grow mid-single-digit percentage quarter-on-quarter.

is there a concern or is it possible or probable that you get into a kind of golden screw type situation

ChallengingSupply ChainProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2027 Q1 →
Show response

Rene answered directly that there is no single point of failure and expressed confidence in partner capabilities and upside capacity.

Calendar 2026 Q1

I just want to check that I heard you right that you anticipate 100% attach rate of Arm CPU with those accelerators you mentioned?

Competitive DynamicsCloud & AITranscript · FY2026 Q4 →
Show response

Rene clarified he expects the vast majority, not necessarily 100%, of accelerator-paired CPUs to be Arm. Cited Google's 80% performance improvement from switching to Arm host processors.

could you just give us some help in terms of the shape of how you expect royalty revenues to kind of flow through the year?

Revenue GrowthMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q4 →
Show response

Jason guided to roughly 20% royalty growth for FY2027, with licensing 60/40 back-end weighted. OpEx will grow sequentially each quarter, with incremental margin improvement by year-end.

Calendar 2025 Q4

how should we think about SRAM SRAM at the edge, some of these different memory and what they could mean for your business

Innovation & R&DCloud & AITranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Rene said Arm is highly involved in research on SRAM and alternative memory technologies to address increasing AI compute demands under constrained power and battery budgets. Power efficiency is a continuous focus given expanding AI workloads on battery-powered devices.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you maybe just talk about the shape of what that revenue opportunity looks like on a sort of 1-, 3- and 5-year view

Cloud & AIRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Rene declined specific forecasts but said compute demand is greater now than at the January Stargate announcement. Power infrastructure is the primary constraint on realizing the opportunity.

I think you also said that you already have royalty revenues associated with that

Innovation & R&DRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Jason explained the early royalty was from an existing CSS customer upgrading to gen-2. Close partnership on gen-1 allowed gen-2 adoption within months of technology delivery, faster than expected.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Just maybe a bit more color on the royalty progression through calendar '25, if you could, please

Show response

Jason outlined sequential shape: Q1 strong, flattish into Q2 (seasonally lower), then 10-15% sequential growth in each of the last two quarters.

Calendar 2024 Q4

is there anything that's sort of structurally changing in terms of the complexity of your client agreements

Show response

Jason said no structural change. Larger deals naturally take longer due to board approvals, but the dynamics are the same as prior year.

Can you maybe just talk a little bit more specifically about FY '26 and kind of what momentum

Revenue GrowthInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Jason deferred FY26 guidance to next quarter but reiterated mid-20% royalty growth target. Emphasized CSS is an even larger growth driver than v9 alone.

ASMLASML Holding4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 1 of 4 challenging
ASML company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

about installed base management. If I look at the 3Q guide, the full year guide, looks like there's about a EUR 400 million decline sequentially in the fourth quarter.

ChallengingMarginRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Roger said the sequential shape is mostly upgrade-business tapering from the 1H peak, offset by continued EUV service growth as more tools come out of warranty, and the step isn't as draconian as the rounded 20% figure implies.

could you share what are the milestones that are still needed for your customers to cross before we can be more confident about when volume manufacturing begins

Product LaunchInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Christophe said High NA imaging and overlay performance are validated; the remaining gating factor is tool maturity, can the system run without major interruptions so customers can trust repeatable HVM performance. Work continues heavily through this year and next.

Calendar 2025 Q1

in terms of the order backlog, could you give us some color what proportion is priced ex works? And maybe what proportion of the backlog is ASML responsible for custom fees, delivery duty paid, etc.?

Trade TariffsMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Roger said ASML is typically the importer but that contractual terms drive actual tariff pass-through, and ASML believes cost should be allocated fairly across the value chain rather than sit with ASML.

will we expect any of those tools to rev rec this year or is the High NA rev rec entirely 5000s?

Revenue GrowthProduct LaunchTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Roger confirmed 5200 tools are part of the five High NA revenue recognitions planned for 2025, alongside remaining 5000-series rev recs.

AMATApplied Materials3 questions · 3 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
AMAT company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

why we have kind of a reasonable shot here in China and maybe why that doesn't exist in logic/foundry leading edge

DemandMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Brice clarified the China forecast is more intuition-based (digestion after elevated spending) than hard visibility. On leading-edge, noted the multi-year visibility built since COVID has degraded as customers delay commits in the uncertain environment.

Calendar 2025 Q2

what is Applied's appetite for risk for maybe trying new things, new technologies to serve that market

Innovation & R&DCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Gary emphasized Applied's deep customer visibility reduces technology risk, with co-innovation engagements even with customers' customers. Revenue grew 4 times in packaging over 5 years with continued strong growth expected.

Calendar 2025 Q1

you mentioned advanced packaging and you referenced volume orders from multiple leading-edge customers

Innovation & R&DCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Gary noted packaging revenue spans all architectures including HBM. Brice explained the $674M tax asset revaluation was due to renewed Singapore incentive rates making the deferred asset less valuable.

KLACKLA Corporation3 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 3 challenging
KLAC company page →

Calendar 2025 Q3

could you just paint some color around to what extent that already bakes in high NA engagements or whether that would be an upside to your outlook for '26?

Innovation & R&DCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Bren clarified the 2026 outlook is driven by continuing the N2 ramp across the customer base, with high NA not a material factor in that time frame, leaving it as potential upside.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Could you just help us maybe with a bit of the gross profit bridge, pretty flat revenues but a really decent impact on gross margin?

Show response

Bren explained the sequential margin improvement was driven by higher-value product mix within systems, not volume leverage.

you talked about the service business basically being the sort of source potential tariff impact to margins

Trade TariffsMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Bren explained service tariff exposure stems from KLA being the importer of parts under contract obligations, with potential mitigation through pricing strategy and shifting to ex-works transactions.

LRCXLam Research1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
LRCX company page →

Calendar 2025 Q1

Maybe you could just give us a little bit of color on the spares just kind of how that was tracking sequentially

Revenue GrowthDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Doug said spares are doing well with utilization trending favorably, while the NAND upgrade vs new equipment split will become more balanced over time.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
ARM Arm Holdings1010%1 of 10 questions
ASML ASML Holding425%1 of 4 questions
AMAT Applied Materials30%none of 3 questions
KLAC KLA Corporation30%none of 3 questions
LRCX Lam Research1—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • ARM
    Arm Holdings · 10 questions
    10%1 of 10 questions
  • ASML
    ASML Holding · 4 questions
    25%1 of 4 questions
  • AMAT
    Applied Materials · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • KLAC
    KLA Corporation · 3 questions
    0%none of 3 questions
  • LRCX
    Lam Research · 1 question
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q420%none of 2 questions1
2025 Q170%none of 7 questions5
2025 Q2333%1 of 3 questions2
2025 Q340%none of 4 questions3
2025 Q410%none of 1 question1
2026 Q120%none of 2 questions1
2026 Q2250%1 of 2 questions1
  1. 2024 Q42 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  2. 2025 Q17 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 5 companies
  3. 2025 Q23 questions · challenge rate 33% (1 of 3 questions) · 2 companies
  4. 2025 Q34 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 3 companies
  5. 2025 Q41 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
  6. 2026 Q12 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  7. 2026 Q22 questions · challenge rate 50% (1 of 2 questions) · 1 company

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Revenue Growth9
  • Innovation & R&D8
  • Margin5
  • Product Launch3
  • Cloud & AI3
  • Competitive Dynamics2
  • Demand2
  • Trade Tariffs2
  • Cost Pressure1
  • Supply Chain1
Show all 13 topics
  • Capex Investment1
  • Macroeconomic1
  • Capital Allocation1