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Analyst

Trevor Allinson

Wolfe Research · covers Industrials, Consumer Cyclical

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3 (8 quarters).

Questions
37on tracked calls
Challenge rate
5%2 of 37 questions
Companies
5questioned at least once
Reporting periods
8with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 37 of 37 questions from 5 companies

DHID. R. Horton13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 13 challenging
DHI company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

have you made any adjustments to those programs? If so, can you talk about what rate you are buying down to

Show response

Jessica said the average buydown eased to 1.6% from 1.7%, with backlog mortgage rates at 4.9% versus a roughly 6.5% market rate.

Calendar 2026 Q1

Is it your expectation that lot count kind of still continues to move lower sequentially here as maybe fewer deals just meet your underwriting standards

InventoryCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Murray said lot position is as good as ever in company history. Being disciplined on underwriting and passing on deals that don't work in current incentive environment.

Have you seen the industry overall also start to make some progress on working down inventory

InventoryCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Romanowski said industry inventory levels have reduced with more rational starts control. DHI managing starts in line with demand week-to-week. Feels very good about own inventory position.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Is there still excess inventory relative to demand? Or has the slowdown in starts we've seen across the industry here in the fourth quarter brought that more into equilibrium

Show response

Romanowski said pockets of elevated inventory remain market to market and within submarkets of larger MSAs, but continuing to right-size across the footprint.

how do you guys think about your preference to do more volume versus the 86,000, 88,000 closings target you have currently versus recapturing some margin

Show response

Murray said they'll evaluate community by community. Where margin expansion makes sense they'll take it; where pace drives better returns they'll push volume. Balanced approach unchanged.

Calendar 2025 Q3

We've heard a couple of builders call out Texas as being among the weaker markets here, but your South Central orders were up 11% year-over-year

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Romanowski said Texas is choppy market to market. Leaned into incentives to drive absorptions in Q4. Bright spots exist but elevated inventory in some areas needs to be worked through.

Do you think that the reduced starts pace here recently has brought inventory more in alignment with current demand conditions

InventoryCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Murray said reduced starts have helped balance inventory and created opportunity to reprice stick and brick costs. Hansen added the industry is being more rational to avoid oversupply.

Calendar 2025 Q2

We've heard a lot of builders talk about resale inventory not being very competitive to new homes. At the same time, we've seen a pretty notable rise in resale inventory since really the middle las...

Competitive DynamicsDemandTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Murray said resale is not a significant competitive pushback. Older housing stock and less compelling rate incentives from resale owners favor new construction, especially for first-time buyers.

You've made some really good progress over the last couple of quarters working those down. We're also entering the slower time of year just can you talk about how you feel about your completed inve...

InventorySupply ChainTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Romanowski said they feel very good about spec reduction progress and expect it to continue trending down. Improved cycle times mean they need fewer specs to generate target closings.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Should we expect that those impacts to be primarily reflected in fewer closings and orders right now than you currently expect

Guidance ReliabilityMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Already pulled back on absorption and starts expectations. Would adjust based on market conditions. Anticipating consistent sales activity in guide.

share repo expectations have gone up. Perhaps could imply that maybe you're pulling it back a little bit on land and development spend

Capex InvestmentCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Land spend already lower than recent trend. Extending development timing and lot takedown schedules. Still committed to lot position but may need lots less quickly.

Calendar 2024 Q4

Can you just give us some color on some potential impacts that you think could be possible if we were to see a major change on immigration

Trade TariffsLabor MarketTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Too early to assess impact. Noted housing affordability is a stated goal of the administration. Past experience with both tariffs and immigration changes.

Southeast and South Central were two weaker regions for you guys on a year-over-year basis. So perhaps any demand commentary in Texas and Florida would be helpful

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Florida and some Texas markets saw inventory buildup impacting sales. Generally pleased with early spring traffic across footprint.

MASMasco12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 12 challenging
MAS company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

a peer of your words yesterday was talking about pain inflation maybe exiting the year closer to high single digits

ChallengingCost PressureMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Cited a peer's higher inflation view; management held to mid-single digits as the exit run rate while flagging oil volatility.

is there also a price cost headwind that is more timing related with your largest customer

Show response

Declined to discuss customer pricing but confirmed a price-cost-neutral agreement with the biggest channel partner and named commodity headwinds.

Calendar 2026 Q1

can you size for us what sort of benefit you're getting from the restructuring actions here in 2016? And then how much larger does that become

MarginCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Rick declined to quantify savings, noting they fund both growth initiatives and margin expansion. $8M charged in Q1, $50M total for year on track. Full year benefit more apparent in 2027-2028 as actions complete. Contributing to 2026 margin expansion.

you've been more focused on growth than you have been in the past. Can you talk about that change

Competitive DynamicsRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Jon confirmed rebalancing incentives toward top-line growth while maintaining profit as largest component. Building centers of excellence in digital marketing, e-commerce, commercial excellence. Executive committee brings external procurement expertise. Goal: consistent above-market growth.

Calendar 2025 Q4

Margins came in a little weaker than what you were expecting in the quarter. Was that primarily volume-related or what drove the weaker margins

MarginTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Rick attributed Q4 DeckArc margin weakness to volume (inventory timing, customer transition, market softness) plus Liberty's severe tariff/antidumping impact. Recast quarterly data provided in appendix for segment comparison. No unusual factors flagged for 2026.

can you remind us roughly the size of that business as you exit 2025

Revenue GrowthCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Jon declined to break out BU-level financials. Cited 5-6% hot tub and 1% sauna household penetration, market leadership position. Exiting 2025 with momentum. Expected to at least match plumbing segment growth in 2026, potentially faster given secular tailwinds.

Calendar 2025 Q3

Can you put some numbers around what inflation rates you're seeing in your plumbing business in the third quarter and what you're expecting for the fourth quarter

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Rick quantified copper-driven commodity inflation as low single digits in Q3, similar expected for full year. Copper at or near COMEX record highs continues as a headwind.

Can you talk about where you think we are in terms of pull forward versus deferral? And do you think DIY Paint is a category that can get back to growth in fiscal '26

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Jon linked DIY recovery to existing home sales, interest rates, and consumer confidence without predicting 2026 timing. Highlighted PRO approaching 50% of Behr business as an offsetting growth driver.

Calendar 2025 Q2

Is that purely just inflation? Or are you also holding -- intentionally holding some more inventory

Capital AllocationTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Rick attributed working capital elevation to tariff-driven inflation on inventory and receivables plus shorter payment terms on tariff invoices. Small intentional inventory build for resourcing transitions.

How significantly do you expect to reduce it from here moving forward as you look out over the next 12 to 18 months

Supply ChainTrade TariffsTranscript · FY2025 Q2 →
Show response

Rick noted all-in China rate still ~55% making diversification economically justified. Focus on resilient, flexible multi-country footprint rather than specific end-state targets.

Calendar 2024 Q4

you look out 12 months from now, do you expect to continue driving your China supply chain exposure even lower

Trade TariffsSupply ChainTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Keith confirmed continued China reduction while protecting quality and delivery, working with long-term supplier partners. Also pursuing value engineering and cost sharing.

On plumbing, presumably, volumes are also weaker than you likely expected when initially laying out that 2026 guidance, but you're still retaining margin expectations there

ChallengingMarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Keith cited operational momentum, mechanical productivity system with visible pipeline, and improving incremental profit on volume. Used the word 'momentum' to summarize confidence.

PHMPulteGroup8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
PHM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

Do you think there's room for incremental concessions from your trades here to help you lower your overall vertical cost

Cost PressureSupply ChainTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Management credited procurement discipline for the 5% cost reduction to $75 per foot while wanting trade partners healthy.

How should we think about a build to order as a percentage of your orders in the second half of the year?

Show response

Management reiterated no change to the timeline, expecting to reach the 60% BTO target sometime next year.

Calendar 2026 Q1

I want to gauge your appetite for accelerating share repo here, maybe ahead of your cash generation

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Marshall rejected levered buyback approach, emphasized capital allocation discipline: business investment first, then dividends, then excess cash via buybacks. Debt-to-cap is outcome not target.

Are you starting to see any change in relative performance in the Midwest

DemandGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2026 Q1 →
Show response

Marshall confirmed Midwest still performing well overall with a couple of markets slightly slower due to unusually harsh winter (Boston had snow 4-5 times). Move-up and active adult buyer strength supports region.

Calendar 2025 Q4

where does your do you finish spec for community fit today? And with that in mind, what is your expectation for starts moving forward relative to sales

Show response

Marshall confirmed 2,000 finished specs (~2 per community), above ideal but manageable. Starts matched to sales for last 4-5 months, total specs down 1,500 YoY.

should we think of the roughly 2.3 absorption rate that you did in 2025 as representing a floor for you guys here

DemandRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Marshall declined to call 2.3 a floor but confirmed minimum absorption target of ~2 homes per month per community. Current pace sufficient to deliver full-year guide.

Calendar 2024 Q4

have you already started to pull back on your specs? Are you waiting to see how demand shakes out in the spring selling season

Show response

Marshall confirmed starts pullback already underway since Q4, will continue calibrating to sales environment. Comfortable with inventory levels given spring selling season expectations.

How did those trends sequentially -- you previously talked to being under 100 days here early in 2025. Is that the expectation still?

Show response

Ossowski confirmed Q4 at 111 working days with most divisions at pre-COVID levels, expects sub-100 in H1 2025. Multifamily builds skew the average higher.

BLDRBuilders FirstSource2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
BLDR company page →

Calendar 2026 Q2

The public seem to be willing to trade some volume here to protect their gross margins.

PricingDemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Jackson said larger builders negotiate harder but the difference is not meaningful, and stressed there is a price threshold BFS will not cross.

you brought down the high end of your range, but you left the bottom end unchanged.

MarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Jackson explained the low end is a downside scenario management does not expect to reach, retained deliberately to bound the range.

LENLennar2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
LEN company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

You guys have made a lot of investment in various technological initiatives

Cost PressureInnovation & R&DTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Stuart said some costs are already being reduced in real time but the benefit will show slowly, with normalization through 2027.

I want to ask about your comments around labor availability. Your cycle times continue to make really good progress

Labor MarketCost PressureTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Stuart framed labor as geography-specific and evolving; David added roughly 20% of divisions see greater pressure, but no markets were named.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
DHI D. R. Horton130%none of 13 questions
MAS Masco1217%2 of 12 questions
PHM PulteGroup80%none of 8 questions
BLDR Builders FirstSource2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
LEN Lennar2—Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions
  • DHI
    D. R. Horton · 13 questions
    0%none of 13 questions
  • MAS
    Masco · 12 questions
    17%2 of 12 questions
  • PHM
    PulteGroup · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • BLDR
    Builders FirstSource · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions
  • LEN
    Lennar · 2 questions
    —rate withheld: under 3 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q4617%1 of 6 questions3
2025 Q120%none of 2 questions1
2025 Q240%none of 4 questions2
2025 Q340%none of 4 questions2
2025 Q460%none of 6 questions3
2026 Q160%none of 6 questions3
2026 Q2714%1 of 7 questions4
2026 Q320%none of 2 questions1
  1. 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 17% (1 of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  2. 2025 Q12 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  3. 2025 Q24 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
  4. 2025 Q34 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
  5. 2025 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  6. 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 3 companies
  7. 2026 Q27 questions · challenge rate 14% (1 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
  8. 2026 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Demand11
  • Margin8
  • Inventory8
  • Cost Pressure7
  • Competitive Dynamics6
  • Supply Chain5
  • Trade Tariffs5
  • Revenue Growth4
  • Pricing3
  • Guidance Reliability3
Show all 17 topics
  • Capital Allocation3
  • Geographic Expansion3
  • Labor Market2
  • Credit1
  • Innovation & R&D1
  • Macroeconomic1
  • Capex Investment1