Vikram Malhotra

Marc detailed $1.6B of debt paydown mainly through unsecured bonds, with commercial paper (near $2 billion today) expected to be essentially paid off by year-end using disposition proceeds; CP under ~$350M at year-end.

Marc said occupancy is around 87% today and expected to end the year near there, with 1.4M sq ft returning in March. The $100M is base rent; some property taxes and insurance would hit the P&L when buildings come back.

Marc identified capitalized interest, disposition execution, and unpredictable tenant wind-downs as key risk factors. The $1.45 midpoint is the best current estimate.

Marc said G&A management continues carefully with comp restructuring. On AI, Joel and Jenna emphasized no material space demand changes, biology too complex for autonomous discovery. AI remains neutral to potentially positive for space as it may increase experimental throughput.

Marc confirmed Q4 2026 remains the low point, with things evening out in H2 2026. Provided detailed Q1 2026 color on the components driving the steep initial decline.

Peter said TIs are stable on renewals but shell buildouts remain elevated. Free rent continues to increase as the primary competitive tool. Rental rates stable and in some cases growing. Strategy is to preserve rate levels and let free rent burn off to grow income.

Joel credited the FDA Commissioner's direction but questioned whether DOGE firings and departures practically impede the agency. Hallie emphasized the need for IPO window reopening and new company cohorts to drive earlier-stage R&D demand.

Joel defended the disposition strategy, noting the balance sheet is in great shape despite a small leverage tick-up, and that they can achieve the 10-15% non-income-producing target through sales by end of 2026/early 2027 without a common equity raise.

Joel acknowledged the frustration with the 3-4 week gap before Investor Day and indicated Marc may release a preliminary FFO range shortly, citing the complexity of the regulated industry environment.

Joel tied recovery to three factors: rate cuts, regulatory stabilization, and capital markets reopening. Marc referred to the occupancy bridge discussion with Tony.

Joel and Peter emphasized preference for owning more of mega campuses, not less. Peter noted they have equity backstop in mega campuses if needed but prefer selling non-core first.

Joel preferred a measured approach to dispositions, focused on land, workhorse noncore assets, and owner-user sales, with buyback decisions quarter-by-quarter.

Marc described proactive monitoring with quarterly financials from private tenants, citing a successful 100K sqft backfill in SF after getting ahead of a tenant's trouble.

Joel explicitly deferred leasing pipeline details to the Q1 call, asking analysts to be patient, but hinted at pretty good news coming.

Joel characterized Mission Bay as strong (biotech + AI), San Diego as broadly good and affordable, Boston as steady in core submarkets, and South San Francisco as the only sore spot.

Probst laid out the arithmetic behind the reaffirmed guide, and Hutchens noted the guide was already raised last quarter.

Cafaro reframed around SHOP growth and noted dispositions target non-SHOP assets, without committing on outpatient medical or Canada monetization.

Justin confirmed no structural issues, newer deliveries still in lease-up. Active resort-like communities with health/wellness focus have momentum.

Debbie confirmed existing investment management business with open-end fund and noted they are well positioned to expand footprint through additional vehicles.

Hutchens said $200M dispositions assumed, including some underperforming senior housing. Canada shrunk from 30% to 16% of SHOP as US grew. Other markets have mid-market IL with refresh and operator actions driving growth.

Hutchens said 270bps guidance includes normal seasonality, less move-in activity in winter, key selling season May-September for outsized growth. Weather expense impact baked into Q1.

Cafaro said they actively evaluate portfolio actions but main focus is aggressively growing private pay SHOP business, which increased 2,000bps of enterprise NOI over last couple years.

Hutchens said clinical move-outs were uncorrelated to any specific trend including flu. Move-in activity remains strong and consistent with prior year's record pace.

Hutchens noted leap-year adjusted RevPOR around 5%, good internal rent increases at 7%, improving street rates. Quebec regulatory easing helping Canadian pricing.

Cafaro gave a general positive framing of the fund as an additional tool for Ventas and investors but offered limited specifics on growth plans or asset focus.

Hutchens said 25% of portfolio below 80% occupied, US at 84%. Communities above 99% see RevPAR growth 30-40% higher; pricing power increases with occupancy.

Probst confirmed historical seasonality is assumed but noted counter-seasonal results in 2024 could indicate a new normal; heavy reliance on key selling season.

Malhotra challenged management to reconcile their positive lab outlook with peers still seeing occupancy declines. Brinker attributed the difference to disciplined capital allocation during the boom, geographic concentration in 5 submarkets, dominant local market positions, and multiple price point offerings.

Brinker said ~200bps of signed-not-commenced leases starting in 2027 should offset most nonrenewals. Guidance based on both macro outlook and specific pipeline conversion visibility.

Moses quantified Q1 2026 at ~$0.43 vs Q4 $0.47. Q4 benefited from security deposits, free rent burn-off, and escalation from leases that start providing Q1 benefit.

Brinker said M&A outcomes are roughly half-and-half between space expansion and contraction. Credit upgrade either way. M&A year-to-date approximately 3x 2024.

Moses provided Q4 specifics: 300K expirations, 186K into redev offset by new commencements. Additional reduction possible from early terminations or downsizing.

Moses confirmed 85% renewal. Pipeline skews more toward new deals. Bohn added LOI pipeline favors new deals over renewals.

Brinker said outpatient and CCRC continue to outperform while lab has both downside risk and upside opportunity. Guidance range captures both scenarios.

Kelvin said watch list composition hasn't changed materially. Robust tenant credit monitoring platform in place.

Brinker declined to guide on occupancy but acknowledged it could come down. Offset by signed but not yet occupied leases and strong LOI pipeline.

Brinker stressed focus on core submarket assets attractive for long-term ownership. Pete Scott noted up to $1B capacity.

Brinker pointed to strong track record even in difficult environment, expecting stronger growth when macro turns favorable. No specific targets given.

Caton confirmed sequential; Arndt attributed the average-occupancy pattern to lease roll timing and elevated COVID-era lease expirations.

Caton gave 220 million square feet of absorption, 195 million of completions and 70 basis points of US rent growth in the quarter.

Chris named leading rent growth geographies but deflected on specific numbers. Tim explained cash same-store decel from less favorable occupancy comps as 2025 occupancy built through the year.

Arndt said past few years of absorption has been the outlier with very low annual absorption. Even Chris forecast of approaching 200 million still not fully normal or robust. Guide for about 25 basis points increase in average occupancy finishing year at 95.8% and building over course of year. On FFO growth headwinds: interest rate march up still present as anti-accretive with long average remaining life moderating impact. 2024 lightest development starts year since merger so stabilization contributions nearly absent in 2026. Deployment drag more present but reinvesting into logistics and data center.

Arndt said reasonably confident occupancy will sustain around this level consistent with market commentary. Looking for opportunities to build from there going into 2026. Caton on market landscape said vacancy seven and a half percent today going to hang around this level for a couple quarters and improve through 2026. Development starts 75% below peak and 25% below pre-COVID levels. Demand ran 47 million square feet with potential to improve but perhaps not quite back to normal given broader macro. Letter added priorities into 2026 include build-to-suit pipeline with 21 deals signed and spec started in 18 markets with potential to open up further.

Moghadam said 7.4% pretty close to peak with maybe 2-3 more quarters bouncing 10 basis points. Rate of 7.4% is almost median since 2000 with 44% of time exceeded in last 25 years. Pricing power returns at 5% historically which is equilibrium rate. Normal economy growth of 1.5-2% should take year or two to reach 5%. Normal absorption around 250 million feet per year. When pricing power returns will be above inflation because pipeline has not started and construction costs going up.

Arndt said GFC stress test applied market occupancy decline of 170 basis points on top of planned decline sustained through year-end. Market rents dropped 18% applied immediately upfront instead of playing out over months. Bad debt at 75 basis points annualized above GFC experience of 56 basis points. Caton on Q1 conditions said absorption 21 million square feet with global rents declining 1.5% almost all from Southern California. Ex-SoCal rents dipped only about 50 basis points with many markets flat or rising.

Caton said rents declined roughly 2% in Q4 with differential between coastal and non-coastal narrowing. Most markets stable but expect modest further decline in handful of soft submarkets. Later in 2025 expects inflection to positive growth. Calling inflection within single 12-month window is difficult and does not want to offer false precision. Letter added 90% of leases roll beyond next 12 months so short-term rent fluctuations do not impact long-term earnings. Replacement cost rents 15% higher than market and 50% higher than in-place rents as ultimate driver of future rent growth.

Mitra first redirected to per-share cash flow as the goal, then answered on operator culture and alignment without quantifying the consolidation.

Mitra explained CapEx improving due to occupancy scaling (per-unit basis) and 200-person in-house team implementing lifecycle cost approach rather than piecemeal annual repairs. Advocated thinking about CapEx per available room, not occupied room.

Mitra expects supply to chase demand for a long period given demographic tailwinds. Cited operator availability as the biggest constraint on new supply, with 25-30 exclusive or near-exclusive operator partnerships providing a governor on quality supply in their markets.

Shankh declined specific numbers but outlined growth algorithm: mix shift (SHOP now 70% vs 35% four years ago), pricing power above 90% occupancy, free cash flow reinvestment, and unlevered balance sheet optionality.

Shankh framed Welltower 3.0 as removing agency problems across the ecosystem and elongating the growth curve through duration, citing Netflix DVD-to-streaming analogy for self-disruption.

Shankh described the business system philosophy at length but provided no specific margin numbers, instead framing it as a long-term adaptive system.

Management provided granular RevPAR data by occupancy band and confirmed $2B pipeline is low 80s occupancy, newer vintage assets.

Power highlighted Q1 was up 40% year-over-year; McLean cited strong channel contribution, new logos, and emerging AI use cases at 20%+ of bookings.

Power confirmed record pipeline across both product segments with hundreds of megawatts in Northern Virginia, Charlotte, Atlanta, and globalizing demand.

Power noted DLR is taking share from the long tail of competitors while growing in a large addressable market, with full product spectrum strategy paying dividends.

McLean confirmed no change in enterprise buying cycle timelines; hyperscale demand continues to cement around large contiguous capacity blocks.

Management sees continued stair-stepping improvement in 0-1MW with pricing holding at ~$200/kw for large capacity blocks amid robust demand backdrop.