Fiscal year ends DecLast earnings: May 5, 2026Est. next earnings: Aug 5, 2026
Latest Score
6.0/ 10
+1.0vs prior
4-Period Change
±0.0
vs Q1 '25
Challenge RatePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions.
4%
All quarters
6.0out of 10Mixed
Sentiment · FY2026 Q1
Q4 '24Q1 '26
Top Analysts & Firms
Most Active Analysts
Analyst
Firm
Questions
ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions.
Base6Base 6GAAP revenue YoY +5.18% → base 6. The base score is anchored to the GAAP revenue YoY band before transcript, EPS, and guidance adjustments.+Transcript0
Transcript 0Energy sector. GAAP revenue grew 5.18% — reflects organic production growth partially offset by realized hedging losses. Management did not state an adjusted revenue figure (went straight to Q&A). No Tier 2 applied per rule requiring transcript-cited adjusted figure.
+
EPS0EPS 0GAAP EPS YoY -98.34% (from $4.83 to $0.08), spread vs rev: -103.52 percentage points. operating income YoY -93.07%, operating income spread: -98.25 percentage points. Both outside +/-5 percentage points same direction. However, Energy sector — the OI/EPS collapse is driven by unrealized derivative losses from oil price surge ($100+ due to Middle East conflict vs ~$75-80 in Q1 2025). Management confirms record free cash flow per share and reinvestment rate dropping from 44% to 34%, proving GAAP income is non-representative. This is the same commodity-driven structural distortion the Energy Sector Rules Table addresses. Commodity-related non-cash derivative losses, not operational margin compression. EPS adjustment = 0.
+
Guidance0Guidance 0No financial metric guidance changed. Production growth target (>520k boe/d oil) is a volume target — per Energy sector rule, production/volume targets are NOT guidance. CapEx moved to top end of existing range (spend commitment, no growth-metric linkage). Dividend increased (capital return action, not forward guidance). No revenue, EPS, or FCF guidance raised/lowered. -> 0.
=
Final6
How this score was built
Base6Base 6GAAP revenue YoY +5.18% → base 6. The base score is anchored to the GAAP revenue YoY band before transcript, EPS, and guidance adjustments.+Transcript0Transcript 0Energy sector. GAAP revenue grew 5.18% — reflects organic production growth partially offset by realized hedging losses. Management did not state an adjusted revenue figure (went straight to Q&A). No Tier 2 applied per rule requiring transcript-cited adjusted figure.+EPS0EPS 0GAAP EPS YoY -98.34% (from $4.83 to $0.08), spread vs rev: -103.52 percentage points. operating income YoY -93.07%, operating income spread: -98.25 percentage points. Both outside +/-5 percentage points same direction. However, Energy sector — the OI/EPS collapse is driven by unrealized derivative losses from oil price surge ($100+ due to Middle East conflict vs ~$75-80 in Q1 2025). Management confirms record free cash flow per share and reinvestment rate dropping from 44% to 34%, proving GAAP income is non-representative. This is the same commodity-driven structural distortion the Energy Sector Rules Table addresses. Commodity-related non-cash derivative losses, not operational margin compression. EPS adjustment = 0.+Guidance0Guidance 0No financial metric guidance changed. Production growth target (>520k boe/d oil) is a volume target — per Energy sector rule, production/volume targets are NOT guidance. CapEx moved to top end of existing range (spend commitment, no growth-metric linkage). Dividend increased (capital return action, not forward guidance). No revenue, EPS, or FCF guidance raised/lowered. -> 0.=Final6
Macro Signals
↑Oil Energy→Supply Chain↑CAPEX
Diamondback reported Q1 production of 502.3 MBOE/d, within the full-year guided range, with revenue up 5.3% and EPS rising 4.1% year-over-year as improved volumes partially offset commodity headwinds. Capital efficiency reached a new record with well costs down to $530 per lateral foot, while the Barnett zone continued to outperform with 16 completions during the quarter. Full-year 2026 guidance was maintained at 490-510 MBOE/d, resulting in a base score of 6 and final score of 6.
Key Themes7
positive📊 company
Green Light Framework Activation For Production Growth
Diamondback moved from yellow light to green light, adding 2 to 3 rigs and a fifth completion crew in response to Middle East supply disruption and $100+ oil. Production guided to 520,000+ barrels per day oil.
Capex InvestmentDemand
positive📊 company
Record Operational Efficiency And Production Beat
Well performance year-to-date up relative to last year. Drilling costs hit $300 a foot target (down from $360). Machine learning and automation reducing downtime. Reinvestment rate fell from 44% to 34%.
Innovation & R&DMargin
positive📊 company
Fortress Balance Sheet Via Accelerated Deleveraging
Net debt reduced to $12.7 billion. $10 billion target now expected months away vs prior 12-18 month timeline. Planning to call $750 million of 2026 maturities and pursue broader liability management in 2027.
Capital Allocation
negative🏢 sector
Deeply Negative Waha Gas Pricing Pressures Economics
Waha gas pricing deeply negative. Negative $3 Waha cuts out NGL value; worse than that eats into oil value. Company shut in 2,000 to 3,000 barrels per day. Protected with financial and physical hedges.
Cost PressureSupply Chain
positive📊 company
Barnett Shale Development Acceleration With JV
2 incremental rigs focused on accelerating Barnett JV area obligations. Well already drilled under $400 a foot vs $800 target to make Barnett competitive with base program. Position continuing to grow via trades.
Major private operators (Endeavor, Crown Rock, Double Eagle) now consolidated into public companies. Private rig growth potential estimated at 20-30 rigs vs 100 in 2022 cycle. Structural advantage for remaining incumbents.
Competitive Dynamics
mixed📊 company
Surfactant Technology For Enhanced Oil Recovery
Tested 5 wells with surfactant; average 100-barrel per day uplift but ranged from 0 to 400-500 barrels per day. Refining process and deploying next tests. Could extend basin life by a decade or 2.
what an upper bound of oil production growth would be for Diamondback. Again, assuming you have the green light on the macro. Is it fair to assume that it's 5%
is it inconceivable that when we look out with no variable dividend taken out of the capital return structure, but your net debt balance sheet could basically go to 0
how you'd characterize the ability to privates in the Permian to respond to what we're now seeing as far as higher oil prices versus a couple of years ago
Coterra posted Q4 revenue of $1,959 million, up 40% YoY on a GAAP basis, with income from operations surging as Delaware Basin acquisition volumes and natural gas price recovery drove strong top-line growth despite oil prices declining to $58