Adam Kramer

Kleiman reaffirmed stable, citing 1.4% blended rates and occupancy above 95% in Southern California.

Kleiman gave monthly Seattle detail, 1.4% in March rising to 2.8% in June before moderating.

Drilled into renewal growth deceleration under the new methodology asking whether it reflects strategic or operational changes. Also asked about the buyback pivot and how management stack-ranks capital allocation today.

Drilled into renewal growth deceleration under the new methodology asking whether it reflects strategic or operational changes. Also asked about the buyback pivot and how management stack-ranks capital allocation today.

Asked for puts and takes on Q2 blended coming in line with guidance -- how much worse was LA versus how much better were other markets. Also asked about stack-ranking capital allocation priorities between acquisitions, development, and mezz.

Asked for puts and takes on Q2 blended coming in line with guidance -- how much worse was LA versus how much better were other markets. Also asked about stack-ranking capital allocation priorities between acquisitions, development, and mezz.

Angela emphasized looking at full-year 3% midpoint rather than quarterly deltas, noting last year's larger Q1-Q2 spread reflected a lower Q1 base of 2.2%.

Angela said tariff-driven cost impacts to OpEx are the key uncertainty. BLS data reliability has fallen (30% vs 60% pre-COVID participation). Needs a few more months to set a number they can count on.

Angela explained fire victims are waiting for insurance clarity before housing decisions, and impact was mostly single-family homes needing larger units.

Barb detailed insurance down 2%, real estate taxes up modestly with Seattle a wildcard, utilities still elevated. Non-controllable up ~4.5%, controllable under 3%.

Hill ranked development first and noted disposition proceeds roughly match buyback spend; Holder covered the September maturity and term loan capacity.

Tim clarified: same-store concessions only 0.6% of net potential rent, so burn-off contributes roughly 10bps to renewals. More impactful in lease-ups where renewals are 8-10% with concession burn-off component. Concession market: 60-65% of competitors offering concessions at 4-5 weeks (consistent with Q4). April showing slight decline in both percentage of competitors offering and average concession level, early positive signal as absorption reduces lease-up units. Direct with useful disaggregation.

Tim declined to provide monthly specifics but offered directional color: expecting normal seasonality or slightly less. Renewals holding well. Blended could be slightly better than prior year. New lease trending maybe slightly better than prior year. Evasive on specifics but provided useful directional context.

Tim said leasing velocity slower than originally underwritten but stable relative to recent quarters (not worsening). Rents broadly in line with expectations. One stabilization date pushed back. Expects velocity improvement in spring/summer 2026. Direct.

Tim noted 25% YoY drop expected in MAA markets. First half was down approximately 10-15%, so decline expected to accelerate in second half. Direct with specific numbers.

Tim confirmed absorption largely in line with expectations. Some pockets of slower leasing velocity in areas with high supply, but broadly strong and expected to strengthen further. Direct.

Brad: At 4x leverage, incremental dollar best sourced from debt. Could add $1-1.5B debt and stay within credit metrics. Plus disposition proceeds for external growth funding. Direct.

Tim: Concessions broadly 0.5-1 month, relatively consistent last few quarters. Down slightly vs prior year. Lease-ups at 1.5-2 months. Direct.

Tim: ~600K new jobs in MAA markets (consistent with 2024). In-migration, household formation, population growth all above national levels. Continued low turnover and low move-outs to buy. Macro consistent with 2024 but better supply dynamic. Direct.

Mark noted overall less geographic mobility is a U.S. trend but EQR's demographic (Gen Z, higher-wage, 24-35 age) remains more mobile. Cited SF migration data showing active inflow. Less mobility overall negative for country but neutral to positive for EQR's younger, higher-earning renter demographic.

Mark said concessions declining is the leading indicator, seeing it in Atlanta. Expansion markets more sensitive to jobs than coastal given higher supply. Setup is decent but needs job growth catalyst. Recovery with Atlanta in pole position, Austin at rear. Maybe a year before discussing meaningful second derivative inflection.

Bret described three same-store sets: quarterly (~75K units), sequential (~80K units), year-to-date (~74-75K units). About 4,000-5,000 units entering annual same-store from expansion markets. Mark noted most are suburban assets that should look better than existing urban same-store assets in those markets.

Mark emphasized that absorption includes not just deliveries but slow lease-ups of completed properties and first renewal cycles where landlords struggle to remove concessions. Coastal markets will have higher SS rev growth by a fair margin. Expansion market opportunity is more about stabilizing occupancy and reducing concessions. Higher cash flow more likely late 2026 into 2027.

Mark said acquisitions still preferred if priced correctly for balanced portfolio goal. Open to asset-sale-funded buybacks but must avoid descaling. Looking at some development deals in good dynamic locations. Development overhead under $4M/year. Alec added portfolio investment through renovations and CA ADU program.

Mark acknowledged early innings of determining AI impact. Seeing benefits already in SF from AI hiring and large model development. Too early to tell if AI will affect entry-level professional employment. Possible new job classes around AI governance. Good to be levered to tech hubs.

Mark acknowledged limited visibility into RTO cycle progress. Only a handful of coast-to-coast transfers noted. D.C. streets feeling more activated but hard to quantify.

Mark cited Moody's Analytics, on-the-ground observations, and December government data showing improvement in professional services and information sector hiring.

Lacy quantified the sequential improvement in Sun Belt new lease growth but flagged it as too early to tell whether it sustains through the season.

Dave emphasized the public-private valuation gap as rare and likely fleeting opportunity. Playbook: sell assets at 100 cents on Main Street, buy back stock at 75-80 cents on Wall Street. Will continue as long as stock remains attractively valued. More assets on market.

Mike detailed: portfolio now 1.5 weeks (vs 0.7-1 week 3 months ago). Below 1 week: Baltimore, Boston, Nashville, Orange County, San Francisco. More pressure: Texas, Florida, D.C., L.A., parts of Seattle.

Mike differentiated: Tampa recovering fastest with positive blends. Austin improving 400-500 bps but still negative due to supply. Dallas better than Austin. Orlando lagging Tampa. Too early for full 2026 outlook.

Mike noted historical blends would be 3.5-4% but targeting ~2% for back half. Q3 may be slightly above 2%, Q4 seasonally lower. Different from historical norms.

Mike detailed D.C.: 4.9% revenue growth, 97.7% occupancy, blends 3.5% in Q1 rising to 4% in April. Concessions at 1-1.5 weeks.

Ben Schall explained rental demand driven by both employment and wage growth. NABE job forecasts are down but wage growth remains supportive of demand.

Matt noted Denver lease-ups progressing. Sean provided additional color on development asset performance relative to original underwriting.

Sean described residents asking about lease termination options and speculating on downside scenarios, pushing out commitments. More sentiment-driven than concrete job loss.

Ben Schall reiterated that outlook not dependent on job growth inflection; supply tailwinds and softer comps drive second-half acceleration. Asking rents up ~5% YTD.

Sean Breslin noted displaced residents largely seeking single-family rentals in same school districts. AVB communities not meaningfully damaged. Some short-term lease demand in Westside properties.

Jessett said no market was an outlier versus expectations; Austin, Denver and Phoenix lag on supply but are improving, with Austin signed new leases going from down 11% in March to down 3% in July and Denver effective new leases from negative 7.7% to negative 4.3%.

Campo noted 10bp Q2-to-Q3 deceleration was lowest in sector, signaling Sunbelt footing. Q4 blend expected down about 1%. Slower leasing hit one month earlier than typical but Q4 shaping up like traditional seasonality.

Campo endorsed Wheaton's track record but wouldn't pound the table. Cited deliveries down 50% by 2026 vs peak. Drew San Francisco parallel: markets that went down furthest are now growing fastest. 2026 should be inflection point.

Jessett confirmed full-year blend of 1-2% with new leases slightly negative, renewals high 3%. Positive new leases expected by Q3. No changes from prior quarter.

Campo noted DC cap rates in mid-to-high 4s. Oden downplayed federal workforce risk, noting only 20-25K signed up for buyout. Return-to-office could boost DC proper demand.