Austin Wurschmidt

Kleiman quantified loss to lease by region: NorCal near 6%, Southern California in the 2s, Seattle 70 basis points.

Kleiman declined to quantify the 2027 earn-in but gave building blocks: lower supply, affordability, preferred equity headwind past.

Asked about NorCal affordability runway and capacity to continue pushing blended lease rate growth. Followed up on SoCal/LA latest trends and whether conditions are stabilizing or still challenging.

Asked about NorCal affordability runway and capacity to continue pushing blended lease rate growth. Followed up on SoCal/LA latest trends and whether conditions are stabilizing or still challenging.

Asked whether LA occupancy improvement reflects broader market stabilization or just Essex's strategic approach to build occupancy. Followed up on the negative 2.4% Q4 new lease rate growth which was worse than recent history outside COVID.

Asked whether LA occupancy improvement reflects broader market stabilization or just Essex's strategic approach to build occupancy. Followed up on the negative 2.4% Q4 new lease rate growth which was worse than recent history outside COVID.

Probed whether Seattle or SoCal drove Q3 blended softness versus prior guidance and whether Seattle weakness is temporary or could persist into 2026. Also asked if NorCal can sustain 4% blended growth in 2026 or if RTO benefits are one-time.

Probed whether Seattle or SoCal drove Q3 blended softness versus prior guidance and whether Seattle weakness is temporary or could persist into 2026. Also asked if NorCal can sustain 4% blended growth in 2026 or if RTO benefits are one-time.

Dug into the delta between all-lease and like-for-like blended metrics asking how much of the benefit is seasonal and what was originally expected. Also asked about renewal sustainability at mid-4% levels going forward.

Dug into the delta between all-lease and like-for-like blended metrics asking how much of the benefit is seasonal and what was originally expected. Also asked about renewal sustainability at mid-4% levels going forward.

Angela confirmed renewals in the mid-to-high 3% range are a fair indicator of market rent tracking, slightly better than planned.

Angela noted NorCal leaders slightly toward high end of range, SoCal/LA toward low end, averaging to roughly on-plan.

Angela confirmed normal seasonal curve expectations for 2025, with LA/Alameda delinquency noise now behind them.

Barb identified two drivers: higher OpEx timing and higher interest expense from line balance and refinancing assumptions.

Kelvin gave no specific forward occupancy guide but said back-half commencements exceed expirations, supporting modest total occupancy improvement into 2027.

Wurschmidt asked Moses to walk through the 100bps lab occupancy target components (commencements vs move-outs) and 2027 visibility. Moses detailed 400K sqft of 2026 expirations offset by 500K+ sqft of commencements, plus ~50K sqft of midyear vacates from 2 tenants.

Bohn said pipeline ranges from Series A to established public biopharma. Mix of new tenants, renewals, and expansions.

Moses broke down $0.12: base rent loss, absorbed OpEx from triple-net, releasing capital, Salt Lake City option ($0.01), higher refinancing costs, and loss of $150M 10% loan income.

Brinker said outpatient development yields of 7%+ and opportunistic lab investments expected to generate returns far in excess of sale cap rates. Meaningful accretion expected.

Moses confirmed 30K sqft sweet spot. Brinker added ecosystem benefits of scale investments, with deeper market relationships driving additional leasing wins.

Bohn confirmed renewals were mostly near-term expirations. Some early renewals done for tenants looking to expand. Brinker noted 2026-2028 lab maturities all came down from proactive management.

Brinker noted failed tenants averaged 15 years old with significant VC backing. Technology was purchased out of bankruptcy in many cases, indicating capital market failure not science failure.

Brinker declined to provide specifics on potential distressed deals, saying it's too early in the reassessment process.

Brinker noted improvement in collections year-over-year but acknowledged several tenants actively trying to raise capital with uncertain outcomes.

Brinker attributed deceleration to non-recurring internalization benefits in 2024 and CCRC guidance of 4-8% vs 20.8% actual.

Scott Bohn explained higher TIs were driven by one large SF tenant shifting from office-heavy to lab-heavy space, a 10-year renewal with 27% mark-to-market.

Lacy walked market by market through Dallas, Florida and Nashville with occupancy and blend figures, naming specific employer relocations driving demand.

Mike views as temporary, more specific to Florida and Nashville than Texas. Market rents haven't moved up as expected in last 30-45 days, requiring more renewal negotiation. Still expects summer improvement as supply works through. Sunbelt inflection still embedded in full-year guidance.

Mike confirmed coastal blends 2-2.5%, Sunbelt flat to +50 bps. More Sunbelt acceleration expected in second half vs first. Other income growth: Sunbelt high-single to low-double digits, coast 5-7%. Sunbelt other income outperformance driving peer market wins.

Mike provided D.C. granularity: suburbs (Manassas, Woodbridge, Alexandria, Reston) at 4.5-6% growth vs central D.C. at 2-3%. Concessions ticking up, traffic down last 60 days. 70-80 residents in active furlough communication. Boston supply-impacted in North Shore, South Shore stronger.

Mike explained Q2 renewals were pushed $100+ over market rent due to strong retention trends. Scaling back for Q3-Q4 as market rents flattened in July. Still expects to achieve what's sent out.

Mike noted easier comps in back half (market rents trailed 2-3x normal last year). Occupancy 96.3% Q3 last year vs high-96s expected this year. Retention running 300-350 bps better, expects to maintain.

Mike described pricing July-August renewals at 4.5-5%, will let occupancy drift down in high-demand months to push rates.

Mike noted Sunbelt accelerated 500 bps (Austin), D.C. hit 4%, Seattle at 4.5% blends vs 2-2.5% in Q1.

Mike explained West Coast deceleration is driven by $2-3M Monterey Peninsula rent control drag; without it growth would be 50 bps higher.

Tom Toomey declined to speculate, noting it's a high-functioning stabilizing group and Washington has many other priorities.

Argo answered both parts, attributing Q3 strength to renewals plus improving new lease pre-leasing, and gave the July occupancy figure directly.

Tim contrasted 2026 vs 2025: last year saw quick acceleration through April then stalled at Liberation Day; this year seeing steadier acceleration. February weather briefly stalled improvement, March/April recovered. Expects May to outperform prior year. Key metrics supporting: exposure, lead volume, occupancy, and pre-leasing all favorable. Brad added market occupancies firming and absorption exceeding deliveries. Direct with good year-over-year comparison.

Tim confirmed Austin's characterization: YoY improvement gap expected to widen gradually through 2026 as supply moderates. Q1 blended expected better than prior year, accelerating from there. So far tracking as expected. Direct.

Tim confirmed expectation for normal seasonal curve but steeper improvement trajectory. 2025 was the most seasonal year in recent memory. Sunbelt region materially stronger than rest of country on all demand variables. Expects new lease rate acceleration and renewals to hold steady. Supply deliveries significantly down in 2026. Direct.

Tim attributed Dallas and Atlanta improvement specifically to urban/in-town submarkets (Uptown Dallas, Midtown/Downtown/Buckhead Atlanta) working through supply and reducing concessions. Atlanta is one of the highest absorption markets over last 4 quarters. General performance improvement beyond just comps. Carolinas continue strong. No other markets bucking seasonal trend as notably. Direct with good submarket detail.

Tim explained total lease-over-lease guidance revised down approximately 100bps (from ~1.5% to ~0.5%). Q2 results were the biggest driver of the adjustment. Direct.

Tim confirmed both renewals (4.5% range with higher acceptance rates) and new leases are contributing. July new lease rate is the best lease-over-lease of the year. Direct with specific context.

Tim confirmed potential for less seasonal deceleration in late 2025 due to moderating supply and steady demand. Net effective rent growth expected to turn positive by mid-Q3. Direct.

Justin attributed the guidance raise primarily to the strong Q1 start, noting the key May-September selling season hasn't started yet.

Justin explained communities above 90% with flat occupancy deliver 70% incremental margins. Goal is to move more communities into that high-occupancy category over time.

Hutchens said quality of care and trust with families means value proposition is recognized. No unusual financially driven move-outs from higher rent increases.

Probst said $0.08 noncash in both years, no unusual changes expected going forward.

Probst cited strong move-in demand, favorable RevPOR trends (both in-place and street), and encouraging labor/non-labor expense trends as drivers.

Hutchens attributed RevPOR acceleration to OI platform price-volume optimization, improving street rates stronger than recent years, plus 7% internal rent increases.

Hutchens acknowledged heavy reliance on key selling season but noted if winter and summer both outperform there could be upside, much year still to play out.

Probst said Brookdale assets stay triple-net for most of 2025 with transition starting late in the year, making it more of a 2026 story for SHOP contribution.

Mitra reframed around fixed cost leverage and said savings would be shared with residents and operators rather than fully flowing to margin.

Mitra explained RevPOR growth is driven by street rate increases rather than maximizing in-place customer increases. Cited a fundamental negative mark-to-market between departing and incoming residents, plus ancillary income like community fees.

Shankh explained 90+ Holiday assets entering same-store pool created 30bp drag on Q4 RevPOR; initial FY2026 FFO guidance of 16-17% growth reflects all dynamics including pool changes.

Tim McHugh confirmed 20% of SHO NOI under RIDEA 6.0 founding-class operators; Shankh noted structure open to additional partners as regional density strategy evolves.

Shankh reframed supply discussion from absolute supply to excess supply, arguing rapidly rising demand means the next decade is fundamentally different.

Pointed to GFC precedent where senior housing held up even as housing collapsed 50%, citing needs-based private-pay nature and strong balance sheet positioning.

Shankh pointed to post-2026 summer as the inflection for better RevPAR but cautioned that new acquisitions at lower occupancy affect reported metrics.