Bret Jordan

Jackson confirmed most of the $100 million+ IEEPA refund landed in Q4 on already-sold inventory, with the remainder trickling out over FY2027. Direct.

Jackson guided Q1 same-SKU inflation near 5%, moderating toward a ~4% average for FY2027, and flagged a volatile environment with oil-driven pressure.

Philip said inflation expected to moderate to ~4% in Q4 as tariff ramp laps; lubricant constraints not expected to be material.

Management sees opportunity in both national accounts and up-and-down-the-street segments; both grew double digits with slight margin spread between them.

Management expects same-SKU inflation to persist through Q3, slightly tailing in Q4 as lapping begins. Most tariff impact from 232 tariffs, not IEPA. Not all tariff costs have flowed through the system yet.

Management expects cold winter to drive undercar, chassis, and suspension demand into spring/summer. Tax refunds expected to be slightly larger, positive for early spring and summer.

Management confirmed 4-5 year maturity with ~2pp of SG&A growth related to new stores and commercial acceleration. Expects this to persist until peaking at 500 stores annually in FY28, then operating margins normalize.

Management reported growth across all four commercial segments: national accounts, up-and-down-the-street, verticals, and associations.

Management noted discretionary categories appear to have bottomed after two years of decline, showing early green shoots but lower-end consumer still under pressure.

Management confirmed 3% is a floor, expects inflation to increase. Industry remains disciplined and rational in pricing.

Management expects tariff-driven inflation would help return to the 3% long-term average ticket growth target.

Management confirmed China is largest import source but reduced significantly since 2016. Also sources from Far East, Eastern Europe, and Mexico.

Management attributed SG&A deleverage to IT investments enabling Commercial and DIY growth, improving speed, productivity, and customer experience.

Management expressed satisfaction with Mexico profitability and growth, investing in DC capability for future leverage.

Management explained first four weeks were weakest due to hurricane disruption in Southeast, then normalized.

Management acknowledged near-term discount pressure but sees long-term share gain opportunity as competitor exits.

Will attributed national-account strength to both share gains and category outperformance, citing org changes and new leadership; direct.

Will expressed confidence in European share gains in the U.K. and Germany from infrastructure investment but did not quantify versus market; partial.

Bert outlined differentiated capital allocation: automotive focused on shareholder returns and CapEx, industrial indexed more toward M&A. Both maintaining investment-grade ratings. Dividend increased 3.2% for 2026 GPC. More details coming at Investor Days.

Will highlighted Germany as performing well relative to competition and Iberia platform accelerating NAPA brand in market. All geographies sequentially improved from Q4. Cautiously optimistic about building momentum through 2026.

Bert noted Motion is inherently capital light and well-positioned for bolt-on M&A. Global Automotive investment may tilt more towards CapEx versus M&A given supply chain transformation opportunities. $3.0 billion of capital invested over last five years. Auto will be a $16B revenue business with $1.3B EBITDA.

Will identified UK, France, and Germany as particularly weak with Benelux also sequentially softening. Bright spot in Spain and Portugal where NAPA brand essentially doubled the business and EBITDA rate. Bert confirmed Q4 European performance in line with region; full year in line or better than market.

Bert confirmed Q4 independent purchasing assumed flat with Q3. Interest rate relief identified as biggest potential catalyst for independent owner acceleration. Owners managing cash flows tightly and making replenishment decisions through working capital prism.

Bert confirmed First Brands impact isolated, programs functioning normally across other suppliers. Five banking platforms, utilization down on lower inventory replenishment but nothing unusual. First Brands suspended from GPC programs globally.

Will confirmed independent owner inventory improving with purchases-to-sales correlation tightest in two years. Sales out from independents aligns with company-owned stores being up low single digits.

Bert confirmed pricing pass-through balanced with cost increases, not yet a net gross margin benefit. Will emphasized complexity of managing tariffs across millions of SKU combinations and multiple vendor categories.

Bert confirmed pricing cadence accelerates from immaterial in H1, weighted more to Q3 as tariff costs flow through, then leveling to more normalized levels in Q4.

Will noted NAPA branded product is about 15% of European revenue with big runway, acting as margin positive differentiator.

Will confirmed top-line inflation under 1% while SG&A inflation around 2% in salaries, wages, and rent. Sequential improvement noted.

Will attributed DC improvement to centralized operations processes and standardized metrics across the network, not recovery from a low base.

Will clarified it's a reimagined assortment strategy for an existing category representing about 8% of NAPA business, targeting professional repair technicians with a simplified two-tier brand strategy.

Adair said Copart competes on liquidity/returns rather than cutting price, and is not concerned about pricing.

Jeff attributed unit growth differential partly to differential carrier growth rates. Emphasized shift from price competition to delivered economic outcomes. Empirical before-and-after data from account wins validates Copart's value proposition.

Leah confirmed CDS up 5% in unit volume. Growing the user base continuously, not just same-store growth.

Jeff declined to comment on individual accounts. Emphasized insurance industry is historically dynamic and Copart's focus remains on delivering excellent returns. Deferred Progressive-specific questions to Progressive.

Leah confirmed CDS remains the larger unit business. Jeff added the TAM for both is huge relative to salvage, with the broader dealer and institutional volumes far exceeding current penetration.

Jeff described underinsurance as cyclical not secular, citing historical patterns. Noting insurance companies now showing more aggressive competitive behavior as combined ratios have improved.

Jeff noted Waymo activity is constrained to geo-fenced areas, not insured by large national insurers, and currently de minimis impact on auction activity.

Jeff said the real bottleneck is institutional inertia, habits, and regulatory culture in Germany rather than the contract structure itself. Consignment aligns interests but isn't the sole enabler.

Leah noted CDS has been more volatile with months ahead and behind prior year. Team focused on adding accounts to build a strong base.

Jeff confirmed Title Express helps retrieve original titles faster, yielding competitive advantage in Florida and elsewhere.

Leah said they will be disciplined and opportunistic with hires. The sales team has doubled since Purple Wave acquisition and they're likely to digest that for a period.

Jeff attributed the 3-of-4 stat to market presence, processing speed, and Florida being efficient at issuing salvage titles. Acknowledged competitive advantage in cat response speed.

Nick could not isolate car count versus pricing, pointing instead to rising repair complexity per vehicle and poor OEM repairability as the underlying growth driver.

Pinchuk said green shoots were primarily associated with tool storage turning positive and overall sales momentum. Recent franchisee conversations were notably positive with no complaints about selling difficulty. Cautioned that one quarter is not definitive.

Pinchuk attributed heavy-duty strength to deeper understanding of the work rather than macro cyclical recovery, citing more effective customized solutions driving share gains. Did not rule out macro contribution but emphasized Snap-on-specific execution.

Pinchuk said no notable intra-quarter trend discernible due to SFC timing distortions and franchisee vacation patterns. Techs remain uncertain. Described them as subprime credit with reliable incomes, any macro concern worries them disproportionately.

Pricing contributed about 1% in the quarter. Pinchuk said future pricing impact hard to predict given tariff uncertainty. Company already priced ahead of competitors, adjusts on product-by-product basis rather than broad increases.

Pinchuk expects robust SFC attendance for the 105th anniversary in Orlando, planning for slightly bigger than last year. Cautioned that SFC orders are directional, not definitive for actual sales.

Pinchuk attributed collision weakness to large multi-store operators pulling back on investment, possibly consolidating gains after an incandescent period. Not framed as structural ADAS impact.

Pinchuk pushed back on the competition framing, attributing U.S. weakness to macro uncertainty rather than competitive pressure. International strength partly reflects snap-back from prior weakness in those markets.

Pinchuk emphasized Snap-on's domestic manufacturing advantage (make in markets where they sell) providing insulation, while acknowledging some tariff costs already being absorbed. Not concerned about retaliatory tariffs either.

Brent said no stated penetration target, they let customers choose between proprietary and national brands. Brad added no material disparity between mature and new markets in private label adoption.

Brent acknowledged pricing pressure from Far East oil sourcing and Iran conflict duration risk, but expressed confidence in teams' ability to navigate through supplier relationships.

Brent noted that with many countries facing similar 25% rates (Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico), the key differentiator is multi-country sourcing flexibility rather than China exposure alone. Brad added they feel good about pricing versus all competitors.

Jeremy clarified the inventory growth is strategic availability investment, not pre-buying. LIFO reporting limits the P&L impact of price inflation on inventory. Brent added Q3 included stocking up the new Stafford DC, contributing to the per-store increase.

Brad dismissed concerns about nontraditional retail competition, pointing to strength in maintenance categories like oil and filters as a bellwether. Brent added that O'Reilly competes on service and availability versus price alone.

Brad noted no major regional standouts in Q4 performance. Cautioned against expecting a windfall from competitor closures, noting those markets are competitive with many independents and the available business may not all be quality.