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Analyst
David Strauss
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q3 – 2026 Q2 (8 quarters; questions recorded in 6).
- Questions
- 61on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 11%7 of 61 questions
- Companies
- 12questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 6with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 61 of 61 questions from 12 companies
GDGeneral Dynamics9 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
could you talk, maybe in terms of years of production, how far out that extends
Show response
Phebe declined on competitive grounds, noting they stopped giving model and years-out detail, and promised clarity next year.
is there a reason to believe that Marine growth meaningfully decelerates kind of from the levels that we've seen?
Show response
Danny attributed the softer second half to material receipt timing and confirmed continued growth, if not at the same pace.
Calendar 2026 Q1
What was driving the -- what's driving the growth there? And maybe touch on the growth outlook from here
Show response
Danny attributed growth to successful pivot from legacy to differentiated systems aligned with administration priorities: strategic deterrent, unmanned, space, encryption, precision munitions.
your updated thoughts on your ability to kind of recover that through working capital over the near term?
Show response
Kim acknowledged CapEx impact on cash flow but said they are working to offset it through working capital reduction. Limited specifics provided.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the portfolio as a whole, I think, used to run 12 -- in the range of 12% to 13% margins more recently running in the low 10s
Show response
Acknowledged margin gap versus historical levels, pointed to Marine as the most obvious improvement opportunity, Deep cited program-level learning curves as key focus
Calendar 2025 Q1
has there been a change in kind of the order activity or customer interest, any noticeable change that you've seen at Gulfstream
Show response
Acknowledged customer caution around tariff impacts but confirmed pipeline remains strong across all product models
can you give an update on getting the money, the significant funding that was in the CR under contract
Show response
Confirmed productive conversations on CR supplemental but noted Block 6 and second Columbia build need prerequisite building blocks before proceeding this year
Calendar 2024 Q4
if you could just clarify the comment on the 650 versus the 800. I wasn't exactly clear what you were seeing there
Show response
Clarified combined G800 and remaining G650 deliveries will roughly equal prior G650 volume, with G650 production ending by midyear
What is the book-to-bill assumption for embedded within your comments around working capital for the year?
Show response
Confirmed 1:1 book-to-bill assumption underpins working capital and growth expectations for 2025
TXTTextron9 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
So is the sale of all of Industrial, the more likely path from here as compared to spinning it out?
Show response
CEO confirmed a dual-track process and cited significant inbound interest but would not commit to a path or structure.
what about timing on getting the LRIP contract? Any change to expectations on the size of the charge
Show response
CFO reaffirmed the prior charge range and timing assumption without revision.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I wanted to ask you about the potential acceleration on MV-75. What that could look like, what that could mean for your numbers
Show response
Donnelly said EMD acceleration underway with LRIP pulled forward ~18 months to eliminate gap between EMD and production. FY27 budget to include production dollars.
what's the outlook for King Air? I mean the volumes have come down a fair amount there. Where could that settle out for the year
Show response
Donnelly said King Air was the last line to recover from strike disruption but has now stabilized. Expects considerably higher Q3/Q4 deliveries.
could you touch on maybe what some of the offsets were to the higher tax rate to hold the guidance
Show response
Rosenberg said accelerated share repurchases lowered average share count enough to offset 200-300bp tax rate increase.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how do you think about the demand environment for Kautex given what's going on with tariffs
Show response
Donnelly said Kautex risk is macro auto demand, not tariffs. Q1 volumes in line with expectations and follows IHS forecasts.
Are there any proceeds from the Power Sports divestiture? And are you holding on to that aftermarket piece
Show response
Rosenberg confirmed aftermarket sold with the business and proceeds were immaterial, to appear in Q2 results.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how do you feel about the Aviation supply chain in terms of the ramp you're looking at in terms of deliveries for 2025
Show response
Donnelly said supply chain is in better shape than 2024, workforce retention improved post-contract, and takt times are operating as expected.
aviation revenues in the fourth quarter, they came in a little bit light, I assume, looks like maybe you missed relative to what you're thinking 10 to 15 jet deliveries
Show response
Donnelly clarified the miss was from losing a third of the quarter to the strike, not supply chain. Factory didn't restart until November.
TDGTransDigm Group8 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Could you just talk on the margin performance year-to-date and what you're expecting in Q4?
Show response
Sarah explained the Q3 margin of 52.8% implies a Q4 drop with conservatism baked in, given the first full quarter of the newly acquired Jet Parts and Victor Sierra units.
Calendar 2026 Q1
How do you see that gap closing going forward, you know, timeframe-wise?
Show response
Mike said the engine portion of the gap is narrowing with strong engine growth and the inventory/channel noise is largely behind, but gave no specific timeline.
Calendar 2025 Q2
would you expect to kind of recouple on the aftermarket relative to your peers?
Show response
Mike declined to forecast relative peer performance but expects continued commercial aftermarket growth. Said they don't have that level of forecasting accuracy and precision.
did you see maybe a dropoff in the last couple of weeks of the quarter that you weren't anticipating?
Show response
Mike said aftermarket growth is in line with expectations. TDG weighs less toward engine than peers, which explains the growth gap. Over the last 4 years, TDG is about where it should be given takeoffs and landings growth of 3-4%.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Can you give us any idea by the different submarkets where you think volumes are relative to 2019?
Show response
Kevin said all submarkets above pre-pandemic except interiors which lags due to refurb market not recovering to 2018-2019 levels. Biz jet well above pre-pandemic.
Q1 would be the weakest aftermarket quarter, did the aftermarket end up coming in a little bit better than you would have thought
Show response
Kevin confirmed aftermarket came in a little stronger than expected. Aftermarket is largely book-and-ship making it difficult to forecast.
Calendar 2024 Q3
you typically target around 100 to 150bps a year of margin improvement
Show response
Kevin explained FY2025 margin guidance accounts for a full year of acquisition dilution impact, roughly four percentage points, which absorbs the underlying margin expansion.
What are you assuming just commercial airline revenue passenger miles or ASMs, flight hours however you want to cut it?
Show response
Mike explained TDG uses bottoms-up customer-by-customer forecasting rather than top-down RPM assumptions, which he said produces more accurate 12-month outlooks.
BAThe Boeing Company6 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I wanted to follow up on the 777X. If you could just update us on change incorp, kind of how you're thinking about that.
Show response
CEO said change incorp was inside the last EAC and refused to discuss customer terms publicly; CFO answered the working capital half directly, calling it a source of cash.
Calendar 2026 Q1
I think, Jay, you've talked about $1 billion kind of cash drag from Spirit this year. How do you see that progressing into '27
Show response
Malave confirmed $1B Spirit cash drag in 2026 from operations and CapEx, similar level in 2027, then improving beyond 2027 from performance, productivity, and synergy capture.
in terms of that change incorp, is it structural software? Kind of any color on kind of the big things that need to be done
Show response
Ortberg explained roughly 30 777s need change incorporation varying by build date, older planes require more structural work. All aircraft brought to common configuration. Already in EAC and operating plan, not a new cost item.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I wanted to ask about MAX delivery guidance for this year and 787 as well. I think previously, Brian, you talked about 400 deliveries
Show response
West confirmed 787 at high end of 70-80 range. MAX delivered 209 first half including 37 from inventory; tracking to beat 400 for full year.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Could you maybe dig in a little bit more on the status of the six KPIs specifically the progress you're seeing there
Show response
787 KPI previously below threshold now green. 737 still has one rework KPI trending down per plan. Fastener fire from SPS being managed without expected aircraft program delays.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I wanted to ask how you viewed the restart on MAX, how that's gone
Show response
Ortberg gave a thorough answer on production restart, KPIs with FAA, and Spirit fuselage improvements. West provided delivery framework for 2025.
HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries6 questions · 3 reporting periods · 3 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
it doesn't look like you're forecasting much in the way of kind of sequential second half versus first half shipbuilding revenue growth
Show response
Stiehle said revenue growth will be fairly linear through the year. Newport News growth is 2/3 labor and 1/3 material; Ingalls is the reverse. Expects consistent steady incremental ramp. Guide at 6% may prove conservative.
The Ingalls margin performance, I think this is the lowest we've seen in quite some time there.
Show response
Kastner described it as a pacing quarter with a minor LHA 8 EAC adjustment. DDGs showing improvement with milestones holding. LPD 30 making good progress. High confidence in Ingalls team.
Calendar 2025 Q1
obviously, the shipbuilding margins in total came through better than what you had guided to. Newport News got a fair amount better. Ingalls kind of continue to step back
Show response
Stiehle noted net zero EAC adjustments ($80M up, $80M down). Q2 guide is conservative given remaining risk to burn down and cost reduction progress still playing out.
it looks like it's a cost -- some form of cost contract. How is that -- I thought we were operating under fixed price on Virginia-class
Show response
Stiehle explained the CTIF structure as a hybrid covering both parties' concerns with parameters around cost boundaries. Management happy with the balanced approach reflecting current business environment.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Could you maybe talk about the opportunity to buy additional shipyard capacity? I think you've made some comments recently in the press around that.
Show response
Kastner clarified no plans to buy additional shipyards; W International acquisition was opportunistic to retain 500 trained shipbuilders. Prefers developing outsource partners over vertical integration.
Would you expect the free cash flow progression, given the CapEx and working capital investments you've had to make here, would you expect that free cash flow progression back to normal to maybe be...
Show response
Stiehle expects cash flow to ramp up tracking margin improvement as pre-COVID contracts roll off. No share buyback guidance for 2025; dividend approach unchanged.
GEGE Aerospace5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Are you effectively pulling forward work today that you might see now in the future with these durability upgrades
Show response
Culp said retrofits are a multi-year effort on the normal shop-visit schedule, not a pull-forward.
Calendar 2026 Q1
it sounds like you ultimately do expect an impact on services growth from your lower departures growth forecast, but maybe it sounds like you are thinking more so in 2027
Show response
Culp acknowledged lag effect from departures softness but expressed strong confidence in delivering high end of 2026 guide given backlog visibility. Ghai added fleet is young with low retirement rates.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the production rate assumptions that are underlying your loss forecast on the 9X, if you can give us some detail there
Show response
Rahul detailed 9X cost curve: 30% reduction by unit 50, another 30% by unit 250, peak losses one year post-EIS (expected 2026), profitable in 2030s. Larry confirmed LEAP target of 2,500 deliveries in 2028, up from current ramp of 15-20% in 2025.
Calendar 2025 Q1
just wanted to dig in a little bit on that second half of the year assumption on departures
Show response
Larry noted departures holding well globally, took conservative 2H view. Highlighted 2-4 quarter lag before slowdown impacts, with spare parts backlog providing buffer.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Maybe if you could go into -- it looks like you're assuming neutral-ish overall working capital, maybe a slight tailwind
Show response
Rahul detailed that earnings drive FCF growth, inventory build expected to be less than 2024's $1.5B, with higher cash taxes and CapEx as offsets.
Show 6 more companies
NOCNorthrop Grumman5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 1 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
is it possible that revenue growth could be in the high single digit range next year
Show response
Kathy would not put a number on 2027 growth but cited book-to-bill of 1.25, double-digit international growth, and mix-driven margin tailwinds.
Calendar 2025 Q2
could you give a rundown on F-35, the status there, how you're going across your different efforts there
Show response
Warden confirmed strong F-35 production support and progress on APG-85 modernization but deferred details due to classification.
if you were to agree with the Air Force on increased production, you wouldn't anticipate a further charge on the program
Show response
Warden acknowledged further company investment likely needed but said discussions focus on accompanying improved returns to justify the investment.
Calendar 2025 Q1
NGAD F-47, could you talk about what role, if any, you have on the Boeing aircraft?
Show response
Warden couldn't discuss NGAD specifics due to classification but noted merchant supplier role for mission systems. No update on F/A-XX timing.
this process change, that you've put in place to allow for accelerated production or higher clients, whatever it may be. Isn't this something the Air Force should pay for
Show response
Warden framed the investment as jointly beneficial for national security and long-term program profitability without directly addressing government cost-sharing.
HWMHowmet Aerospace4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
could you kind of break that out what's baked into that for aero, defense and IGT and I guess, transportation wheels
Show response
Plant broke down: commercial aero ~20%, defense ~10%, gas turbines 25-30%, commercial transport cautious below 5%. Declined to project 2027 growth rate citing macro uncertainty but confirmed positive outlook.
Calendar 2025 Q2
if you wouldn't mind running through your assumptions on your other key programs, 787, 350 and so on
Show response
MAX raised to 33/month average (rate 38 2H). 787 at rate 6 moving to 7 in Q3. A350 at 6. Tariff net impact below $15M, Q2 drag significantly below $5M.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I wanted to ask you progress on yield on the upgraded 1A blades and how things are going on GTFA and when you expect timing of the OneBlade [ph] upgrade certification? Thanks.
Show response
Plant confirmed yield on track with typical learner curves, ahead of engine manufacturing needs. GTFA certified, LEAP-1B heading toward certification by calendar year-end.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what is assumed in the cash guide for working capital? It looks like usage similar to 2024. And you know, maybe somewhere between $100 and $200 million.
Show response
Giacobbe gave specific $180M working capital burn figure with clear reasoning. Plant confirmed benefits of cash flow will be largely repatriated to shareholders.
RTXRTX Corporation4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
Maybe could you specifically address the state of negotiations with Airbus and what they're desiring to get in terms of engines from you?
Show response
Calio confirmed record GTF deliveries planned with share above 40% program share. Airbus relationship described as constructive and ongoing. Mitchill noted Collins interiors up low teens in Q1 with solid full-year growth outlook.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Any sort of quantification of what that might look like in terms of how much we should expect AOGs to come down in the second half of the year?
Show response
Calio declined specific AOG targets but expects meaningful H2 decline backed by continued 30%+ MRO output ramp. Mitchill noted airline bankruptcy charge at Pratt and Collins restructuring.
Calendar 2025 Q1
V2500, the shop visit assumption there this year, if that's held and how you think V2500 shop visits would hold up in a, let's say, flattish kind of flight hour environment
Show response
Mitchill noted V2500 shop visits would hold solidly even in flat environment due to young fleet and low retirements (11 in Q1). Calio said MRO capacity is sufficient, focus is on Gate 2 material flow.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Could you just be a little bit more precise where exactly you're booking GTF aftermarket today
Show response
Mitchill disclosed GTF aftermarket margins near double-digits, trending positively. Collins incrementals at ~40% for 2025 with path to pre-COVID margins long term.
LHXL3Harris2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
could you kind of rank by segment where you would expect to see the most growth kind of highest to lowest
Show response
Bedingfield ranked AR fastest, then SAS, CS, IMS. Margin improvement driven by LHX NeXt integration and program performance. Commercial business model cited as margin differentiator.
Calendar 2024 Q4
On CAS, and that divestiture, I think you mentioned it, Ken, but what – exactly how much revenue is assumed there?
Show response
Bedingfield confirmed CAS revenue north of $500M, positive EACs of ~$40M for full year 2024, and flat EAC assumption for 2025 guidance.
LMTLockheed Martin2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
what your growth rate would have been ex the work week comparison if you had the same number of work weeks this quarter
Show response
Scott quantified work week impact at a few hundred million of revenue, to be recovered in Q4. Classified program cash burn guided at $500-700 million per year for 2026-2027 with sizable drawdown expected after. Half of $1B CapEx increase tied to munitions agreements with cash flow protection.
Calendar 2025 Q1
have you received a debrief from the Air Force and gotten some feedback there? And how are you thinking about the way forward in terms of potentially protesting the award?
Show response
Jim stated decisively no protest, pivoting NGAD tech investments to F-35/F-22 fifth-gen-plus upgrades targeting 80% of sixth-gen capability at 50% of cost.
RKLBRocket Lab USA, Inc.1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
when do you plan to incorporate the reusability for Neutron? And then how will that kind of impact cadence
Show response
Beck said Flight 1 attempts a soft ocean splashdown to test reentry, with a barge landing attempted on Flight 2 if results are good.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| GD General Dynamics | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions |
| TXT Textron | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions |
| TDG TransDigm Group | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions |
| BA The Boeing Company | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| HII Huntington Ingalls Industries | 6 | 50%3 of 6 questions |
| GE GE Aerospace | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions |
| NOC Northrop Grumman | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions |
| HWM Howmet Aerospace | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| RTX RTX Corporation | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| LHX L3Harris | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- GDGeneral Dynamics · 9 questions11%1 of 9 questions
- TXTTextron · 9 questions11%1 of 9 questions
- TDGTransDigm Group · 8 questions13%1 of 8 questions
- BAThe Boeing Company · 6 questions0%none of 6 questions
- HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries · 6 questions50%3 of 6 questions
- GEGE Aerospace · 5 questions0%none of 5 questions
- NOCNorthrop Grumman · 5 questions20%1 of 5 questions
- HWMHowmet Aerospace · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- RTXRTX Corporation · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- LHXL3Harris · 2 questions—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Show all 12 companies
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2024 Q4 | 13 | 8%1 of 13 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q1 | 13 | 15%2 of 13 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q2 | 13 | 15%2 of 13 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q3 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2025 Q4 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2026 Q1 | 12 | 17%2 of 12 questions | 9 |
| 2026 Q2 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 6 |
- 2024 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2024 Q413 questions · challenge rate 8% (1 of 13 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q113 questions · challenge rate 15% (2 of 13 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q213 questions · challenge rate 15% (2 of 13 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q3No questions recorded
- 2025 Q4No questions recorded
- 2026 Q112 questions · challenge rate 17% (2 of 12 questions) · 9 companies
- 2026 Q28 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 6 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand19
- Revenue Growth17
- Margin13
- Product Launch10
- Competitive Dynamics9
- Capital Allocation9
- Supply Chain9
- Guidance Reliability5
- Capex Investment5
- M&A4
Show all 16 topics
- Cost Pressure3
- Trade Tariffs3
- Innovation & R&D2
- Pricing2
- Macroeconomic1
- Regulation Policy1