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Analyst
David Vernon
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3 (8 quarters).
- Questions
- 60on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 15%9 of 60 questions
- Companies
- 9questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 8with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 60 of 60 questions from 9 companies
DALDelta Air Lines13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
does that all stay in Main Cabin, or does the portion of that go into premium?
Show response
Joe confirmed all main cabin merchandising tiers are recognized as main cabin revenue.
I am just trying to see if you have seen any evidence that the premium for premium is having an impact on buy up.
Show response
Joe said premium loads rose almost 2 points on 6% to 7% capacity growth without fare discounting.
Calendar 2026 Q2
Can you just talk about what that means kind of for 4Q, maybe beginning of next year, ASM growth
Show response
Edward gave a direct fourth-quarter capacity framework and outlined upgauging plus international as the growth areas, while declining to guide 2027 specifics.
Calendar 2025 Q4
is you like, what last year, we're talking about how, you know, competitive capacity is a little more subdued in your core hubs
Show response
Joe confirmed competitive capacity in Delta's hubs is in a very good position entering 2026. Low-end industry rationalization continues through internal or external restructuring.
it sounds like Delta revenue is accelerating, but the main cabin isn't. And I'm just wondering if that more plainly just means that this is about, you know, Delta and the strategies you guys put in...
Show response
Glen argued 2025 was proof that Delta has charted a fundamentally different path via revenue diversification and premium focus. Low-cost competitors are trying to pivot (Southwest building clubs, going international) but rationalization of commoditized flying remains the key industry catalyst.
Calendar 2025 Q3
is there any reason to think that we shouldn't be at the upper end of the framework you guys have laid out
Show response
Ed noted significant 2025 headwinds (aircraft incidents, trade uncertainty, consumer confidence plunge) that should not repeat. Has not yet completed 2026 planning but indicated if the current environment continues, 2026 could be very strong.
I'm wondering if you're seeing any kind of difference in domestic revenue trends in your hubs versus some of the point-to-point leisure markets?
Show response
Glen reported improvement across all three categories: coastal gateways (biggest uptick from corporate and share gains), core hubs (performing very well), and focus cities (as expected). Called it a broad-brush improvement from 90 days ago.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Have you given any updated thoughts on tariffs are going to impact the order book? And what are the discussions that you're having right now around with industry or with the government around tryin...
Show response
Ed reiterated Delta will not pay aircraft tariffs. Cited the UK-US trade agreement honoring the 1979 Aviation Act as an encouraging template. Argued aviation generates the largest US trade surplus.
how much of the guide for 2H is based on what you think you can control in your network versus what you're expecting peers to do on the capacity front
Show response
Glen acknowledged reliance on both Delta's own levers and industry capacity discipline. Noted further adjustments likely needed in October-December beyond what's currently loaded.
Calendar 2025 Q1
are the buy ups actually getting a little bit wider right now? Or are you seeing them just kind of stay at the same absolute level
Show response
Glen confirmed premium-to-main cabin spreads are widening, not converging, and expects this trend to continue into Q2.
how should we be thinking about the impact of tariffs on new deliveries and what that might kind of do in terms of your appetite to maybe defer
Show response
Ed was emphatic Delta will not pay tariffs on aircraft, noting a 20% cost increase makes the math unworkable. Working closely with Airbus as a partner.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Can you help us understand kind of the balance between international and domestic as we progress through the year
Show response
Glen outlined international slightly higher than domestic, Pacific high initially then stepping down, Atlantic slightly above system, Latin lowest growth.
the 10% growth, is there a way that you can help us understand kind of how much of that is sort of volume, how much of that is yield
Show response
Glen noted corporate share at or near record highs. Growth was primarily traffic-driven early in the year, shifting to both volume and yield by Q4.
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation9 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
any sort of broadening of industrial demand outside of anything related to sort of data center construction
Show response
Rocker cited a slight uptick in car orders across the board and record industrial average revenue per car.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how you guys are thinking about this -- tackling this issue of proving that this merger enhances competition
Show response
Jennifer highlighted committed gateway pricing extends merger benefits to otherwise unaffected customers. Kenny cited 520 customers, 700 commercial partners, and 2,000 total supporters.
Calendar 2025 Q4
about the switching, sort of regulation moving away from maybe the mid tech paper precedent, how does that change your perspective on the business
Show response
Jim expressed strong support for competition and customer optionality, arguing it would advantage UP given their service levels, but cautioned the devil is in the details to avoid degrading customer experience through added complexity and touch points.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I was wondering if you could maybe just talk a little bit about how those changes are being made and how that level of integration is
Show response
Kenny clarified alliances exist with all rail partners including CN and CSX, not just NS, and emphasized nothing is being done pre-merger. He stated UMAX is a strong viable product that is not going away, ensuring customer optionality.
Calendar 2025 Q2
are you seeing any positives as freight roads are kind of being redirected or tariffs are incentivizing additional production inside of the U.S.
Show response
Kenny reported early green shoots of production shifts from Asia to Mexico and increased interest in industrial development on UNP's network.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you help us sort of understand kind of how much it has improved kind of either sequentially or relative to where we were sort of last year
Show response
Kenny attributed pricing strength to service product, network investments, and disciplined mindset, while Jennifer noted truck market recovery could provide additional tailwind.
Do you guys seen any sort of change in cross-border Mexico volumes? Either Loreto or Eagle Pass as we've been dealing with some of these tariff
Show response
Kenny reported UNP gained a few market share points in Mexico so far this year, citing seven-day service, best route advantages, and thirty-year customer relationships.
Calendar 2024 Q4
can you give us a sense for where utilization is in the box pool fleet for you guys right now
Show response
Kenny noted the railroad's own fleet was well deployed in H2 but IMC/private asset fleet still has upside, without giving a specific utilization number.
whether this recent uptick in natural gas prices that we're seeing may have some benefit for you on the pricing side
Show response
Kenny confirmed coal pricing would benefit from higher natural gas prices but declined to forecast gas price movements.
CSXCSX Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
how much of the $54 million of efficiency gains is really kind of volume-driven versus more cost takeout driven?
Show response
Kevin argued ex-fuel incremental margins were very strong given overall expenses down 2% on volume growth, and said the model is built to generate powerful incremental margins on profitable volume.
Calendar 2026 Q1
I'm just wondering if you're also getting a little bit more optimistic or less optimistic on the volume side
Show response
Kevin confirmed revenue guide raise mostly fuel-driven with small volume embed. Mike said comfortable with current headcount, may see minor T&E uptick in Q2-Q3.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Should we expect in kind of year over year across the board? Or is it going to be a little bit more back or front-end weighted
Show response
Kevin said Q1 should show above-average year-over-year improvement due to easy comps from 2025 storms. Provided a framework: $150M non-recurring items, 3-3.5% inflation, and investors can back into the implied productivity number.
Calendar 2025 Q3
How do you view that And do you think it is possible to recreate those economics through partnership arrangements
Show response
Steve said focus is on standalone performance plus near-term partnership opportunities. Acknowledged a rigorous STB approval process makes the outcome uncertain but committed to pursuing the best path to shareholder value.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what percentage of your revenue today originates west of the Mississippi -- West of St. Louis
Show response
Kevin declined to provide specific geographic revenue breakdown, offering only that over half of CSX business touches another railroad. Effectively deflected the merger-related freight flow question.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is this a resource issue? Is it just a scheduling issue and a lack of weather issue
Show response
Mike acknowledged recovery will be gradual through the quarter, not overnight. Latest flooding in Nashville-Cincinnati corridor set back progress. Goal is to reset fully by Q3 summer seasonality.
Calendar 2024 Q4
is there any way you can help us understand the $300 million, how much of that is volume, how much of that is price
Show response
Kevin clarified $300M is entirely price-related (met coal and fuel surcharge), not volume. Sean added no volume disruption expected from Howard Street Tunnel with costs added to preserve service.
LUVSouthwest Airlines7 questions · 5 reporting periods · 3 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
any sort of geographic commentary or level of card spending activity within the co brand would be helpful
Show response
Justin says card growth is broad-based across regions; Andrew says Starlink installs are paced by antenna supply with no firm fleet-wide deadline.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is there any color you can give us around how the card program is performing as far as total spend or sign-ups for the card
Show response
Andrew reported card remuneration up approximately 8% YoY, just shy of peers, without yet having a high-fee credit card, a major source of industry card revenue growth. Expects acceleration once a premium card offering is available.
Calendar 2025 Q4
you're going to be taking share, raising fares by something in the double digits. Like normally, you would think there'd be some sort of demand elasticity problem
Show response
Bob reframed the RASM growth as customer choice and buy-up opportunity rather than fare increases. Offering basic through premium with ancillary seat selection, customers choose to buy or not. What they're seeing is customers choosing to buy the new options.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I'd love to kind of narrow in on that comment around the knife edge improvement in yields with bookings for the assigned seating in January
Show response
Andrew declined to quantify the knife-edge yield improvement given it's early in the booking curve, but confirmed it represents a clear change in customer reaction, disproportionate buy-up for assigned seats and fare products. Confident in revenue-positive customer response throughout the curve.
can you tell us kind of what quarter we hit peak initiatives, is it Q1, Q2, Q3? Like where in the way you guys have done the math around the initiatives
Show response
Tom said initiatives should continue to build each quarter with no terminal peak. Bob estimated peak assigned-seating contribution around early Q3 2026 based on booking curve maturation. Chase co-brand card benefits will continue ramping all year as customer engagement grows.
Calendar 2025 Q1
does that not sort of advocate for the position of maybe cutting capacity a little bit more than you're estimating in the second half of the year?
Show response
Andrew explained the off-peak problem requires connectivity solutions and basic economy stimulation rather than blunt capacity cuts, which would sacrifice peak yield benefits. Structural connectivity launching in August plus network redeployment starting in April address off-peak weakness.
it looks like you guys are lower from a demand destruction standpoint relative to peers on a year-over-year basis. How do you think about explaining that sort of gap?
Show response
Andrew detailed that the demand discontinuity required careful pricing discipline to avoid discounting close-in. Yields remained robust with strong close-in performance. April year-over-year load factor improved at least two points as further-out discounting began to take effect.
FDXFedEx6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 2 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
are we seeing an actual acceleration in the underlying results of the business?
Show response
Russ affirmed underlying momentum and a balanced capital approach but declined to give a detailed post-CY26 playbook for deploying the cash balance.
Calendar 2026 Q1
If you look at the priority and deferred, that 6% and 9% sort of ADV growth, I'm assuming that's where the health
Show response
Carere confirmed healthcare is primarily in domestic priority with some in deferred. Deferred growth also driven by SMB momentum (B2B and B2C). Amazon volume is in home delivery, still ramping, not material, will be accretive, and Amazon will not be top customer.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I'm trying to sort of reconcile that with the idea that margins are just gonna be up a little
Show response
Subramaniam confirmed 24% now, 65% by next peak, targeting 30% footprint reduction by end of FY27 with $2B savings. Dietrich noted Network 2.0 elements are included in FY26 transformation targets with more detail at Investor Day.
Calendar 2025 Q3
if we've got $1 billion worth of costs taking out that would offset the headwind and then we got 5% of revenue growth, like why isn't there more falling
Show response
Dietrich cited revenue opportunity cost from trade disruption and mix shift to lower-yielding (but profitable) services. Did not fully bridge the gap between cost savings, revenue growth, and flat earnings.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you help us kind of think about what the productivity benefits you're getting out of that sample size
Show response
Subramaniam confirmed 10% pickup and delivery cost reduction target being achieved at integrated facilities while maintaining service levels. 12% of volume through Network 2.0 by FY25 end, 40% by FY26 end.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what percentage of volume you might have touched with the Network 2.0 integration to date?
Show response
Raj confirmed 250 stations by end of FY25, with FY26 as the big lift year for Network 2.0 major metro integrations. Did not quantify percentage of volume touched.
UALUnited Airlines Holdings6 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
can you give us some color around you know, what exactly that is giving to you in terms of buy ups or better utilization
Show response
Nocella said buy-up rates exceeded expectations but declined to quantify; framed as early-innings segmentation.
Calendar 2025 Q4
how you're thinking about some of the changes that are being discussed around the credit card ecosystem and what that might mean for United
Show response
Andrew said United portfolio would be less impacted than peers due to higher FICO, lower revolve, low loss rates. Letting banks sort interest rate issues; United focused on benefits. New MileagePlus head Jarad Fisher to announce growth levers within 10 weeks.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Can you kind of frame kind of what the levers are in there that you're thinking might actually do better than what we're seeing right now?
Show response
Andrew cited published capacity cuts, positive yield inflection, and strong business demand recovery as drivers of Q4 RASM step-up, calling setup very similar to 2024.
Can you kind of walk us through kind of where we're settling in or what's changed from stability to where we are now?
Show response
Mike explained philosophy of conservative guidance with contingency buffer. The prior $11.50-$13.50 had no contingency left. Believes $9-$11 will prove conservative if bookings trajectory holds.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Are you thinking about using that margin to take share right now, or are you thinking about trying to protect that margin
Show response
Scott argued no tradeoff exists, brand loyalty leadership delivers both share gains and margin leadership simultaneously.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how much of the trend improvement you are seeing in 1Q and how that extends kind of into the full year guide
Show response
Mike Leskinen expressed confidence in guidance with upside potential in the back half, maintaining 'no-excuses' philosophy.
Show 3 more companies
UPSUnited Parcel Service6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I wanted to ask you about the competition issues around Amazon, we continue to hear both for investors
Show response
Tome denied any known volume loss and reframed on differentiation: cold chain, reverse logistics, RFID visibility and executive relationships.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is something getting worse in the business that we can't see
Show response
Carol said it is too early to raise given Middle East war and potential demand impact from high gasoline prices. April results exceeding plan. Nothing concerning in underlying trends. Brian confirmed health of the business is strong.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Can you kind of give us a sense for what the second half or the exit rate margin should be? And then as far as kind of what's embedded in the domestic cost outlook, is there any sort of numbers you...
Show response
Brian detailed Q4 had $50M incremental MD-11 replacement lease cost, ~$100M in 2026 with 90% first-half weighted. 767 deliveries: 5 in H1, 10 in H2, 3 in 2027. First half domestic margin faces ~100 basis points of pressure from Amazon cost-out timing, Groundsaver transition, and MD-11 costs that releases in second half.
Calendar 2025 Q3
can you talk a little bit about the exit rate on cost per piece coming out of the third quarter?
Show response
Brian noted best production metrics in 12 years (inside) and 20 years (preload). Driver voluntary severance: 90% exited Aug 31, savings materialize in Q4. Carol detailed driver buyout: $175M total cost, $179M annual payback (<1 year). USPS preliminary agreement reached on volume and rates for Ground Saver and Mail Innovations.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you just give us an annualized number of what that would look like for 2026? And then my question is really around the domestic side
Show response
Brian confirmed 2026 cost savings similar magnitude to $3.5B. Ground Saver decline of 8.5% is mostly intentional from pricing discipline, not competitive loss.
Calendar 2024 Q4
is there any way to think about what that number would look like if you had sort of adjusted the network at the start of the year
Show response
Brian explained cost takeout is commensurate with volume drawdown through 2025-2026. Carol added SMB growth will take share in a low-single-digit-growth market ex-Amazon.
NSCNorfolk Southern Railway5 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
whether we're starting to see some broadening of industrial activity outside of AI and data center build-outs.
Show response
Ed Elkins described accelerating industrial development beyond data centers; Mark George confirmed share loss was about 3 points of intermodal headwind.
Calendar 2026 Q1
what the range of possible outcomes is there from a volume and also from a yield perspective
Show response
Ed confirmed export thermal would be additive to ARPU mix. Q1 was hurt by weather but expects rebound, particularly if Middle East conflict continues opening markets for U.S. coal.
Calendar 2025 Q4
with the coal outlook, I wonder if you can help understand kinda what's happening on the pricing side right now
Show response
CMO noted slight January benchmark uptick but forwards still declining through first half. Global met coal market is thinly traded with geographic decoupling as Australia increasingly supplies China. Warrior Met Coal's new Blue Creek facility positions NSC well for eventual recovery.
Calendar 2025 Q3
can you put a finer number on kind of what the quarterly run rate should be down, assuming nothing else changed in the business
Show response
CMO declined to quantify specific run rate but noted Q3 impact was only a partial quarter. CEO clarified merger impact was not the majority of Q3 intermodal challenge but will build through Q4 and Q1, expecting recovery over a couple of bid cycles.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how we should be modeling sort of the average RPU in coal kind of moving forward here sequentially
Show response
CMO expects continued near-to-medium term coal RPU pressure from seaborne prices. CFO expressed confidence in 150bps annual OR improvement despite ~200bps headwind from inflation, fuel, and depreciation.
JBHTJ.B. Hunt1 question · 1 reporting period · 0 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
could you maybe put some numbers around what kind of wage increases are you seeing out in the marketplace?
Show response
Nick declined specific wage numbers but confirmed rising sign-on bonuses and a longer-term, structurally tight driver supply picture.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| DAL Delta Air Lines | 13 | 15%2 of 13 questions |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions |
| CSX CSX Corporation | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions |
| LUV Southwest Airlines | 7 | 43%3 of 7 questions |
| FDX FedEx | 6 | 33%2 of 6 questions |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| UPS United Parcel Service | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions |
| NSC Norfolk Southern Railway | 5 | 20%1 of 5 questions |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
- DALDelta Air Lines · 13 questions15%2 of 13 questions
- UNPUnion Pacific Corporation · 9 questions0%none of 9 questions
- CSXCSX Corporation · 7 questions0%none of 7 questions
- LUVSouthwest Airlines · 7 questions43%3 of 7 questions
- FDXFedEx · 6 questions33%2 of 6 questions
- UALUnited Airlines Holdings · 6 questions0%none of 6 questions
- UPSUnited Parcel Service · 6 questions17%1 of 6 questions
- NSCNorfolk Southern Railway · 5 questions20%1 of 5 questions
- JBHTJ.B. Hunt · 1 question—rate withheld: under 3 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions | 7 |
| 2025 Q1 | 10 | 20%2 of 10 questions | 7 |
| 2025 Q2 | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 9 | 22%2 of 9 questions | 7 |
| 2025 Q4 | 9 | 33%3 of 9 questions | 8 |
| 2026 Q1 | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions | 6 |
| 2026 Q2 | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions | 9 |
| 2026 Q3 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
- 2024 Q49 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 7 companies
- 2025 Q110 questions · challenge rate 20% (2 of 10 questions) · 7 companies
- 2025 Q26 questions · challenge rate 17% (1 of 6 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q39 questions · challenge rate 22% (2 of 9 questions) · 7 companies
- 2025 Q49 questions · challenge rate 33% (3 of 9 questions) · 8 companies
- 2026 Q16 questions · challenge rate 17% (1 of 6 questions) · 6 companies
- 2026 Q29 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 9 questions) · 9 companies
- 2026 Q32 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand18
- Pricing17
- Competitive Dynamics17
- Revenue Growth11
- Margin10
- Cost Pressure9
- Capex Investment6
- Trade Tariffs5
- Macroeconomic4
- M&A4
Show all 19 topics
- Guidance Reliability4
- Innovation & R&D3
- Labor Market2
- Regulation Policy2
- Supply Chain2
- Geographic Expansion2
- Capital Allocation1
- Subscriber Growth1
- Product Launch1