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Analyst
Detlef Winckelmann
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters; questions recorded in 6).
- Questions
- 10on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 10%1 of 10 questions
- Companies
- 2questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 6with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 10 of 10 questions from 2 companies
SWSmurfit WestRock9 questions · 5 reporting periods · 0 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
export volumes probably shrink and you use more of that capacity internally domestically to supply your own box plants
Show response
Tony said yes, that's 100% true, while stressing continued commitment to export customers at the correct price.
How should we be thinking about supply-demand, what’s driving prices in that other, call it, 2, 2.5 million tonnes
Show response
Tony confirmed export and sack/bag grades are also moving up and gave a timeframe of roughly six months for those tonnes to reprice.
Calendar 2026 Q1
my sense is that you probably recovered more than cost inflation in Europe and maybe matched it in the U.S., so far. Is that a fair statement
Show response
Ken noted European paper price increases are still working through the integrated system. Q2 headwinds: energy slightly higher, recovered fiber ~$20M, freight ~$10M. Big positive: downtime ~$40M lower Q-on-Q. Tony added context: SW did not follow industry price increases announced in October or February in Europe (conditions not viable), but now with stronger demand and order books, the time is right. Competitors deeply underwater.
Calendar 2025 Q2
that implies that we're going to go backwards at some point in Q3, Q4? Does that make sense
Show response
Ken explained synergies come in at different times depending on type (purchasing contracts, volume consolidation, etc.). Not a constant quarterly run rate but focused on exiting 2025 with full $400M.
my understanding was that the linerboard price increases we saw in the U.S. as well as in Europe wouldn't have been fully implemented by Q2. Can you just touch on that
Show response
Ken noted price and volume upside is possible but not baked in, maintaining conservatism. The $100M bridge from Q2 to Q3 is deliberately built on cost relief only.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I just want to kind of get a sense of how that plays into the four year number. Are you assuming that that tonnage stays down in Q2, Q3, Q4
Show response
Tony confirmed the $100M economic downtime is Q2-only. In Q3/Q4, closed mill volumes will be absorbed by remaining mills, providing the cost benefit. Maintenance downtime and normal operational issues will continue but the planned economic downtime is a one-time Q2 event.
Calendar 2024 Q4
in absolute terms in terms of maintenance is Q1 normally quite a high maintenance quarter? I mean imagine Q1, Q4 quite high, Q2, Q3 not as high
Show response
Tony corrected the assumption, Q2 and Q3 are the heaviest maintenance quarters, not Q1 and Q4, due to weather constraints in colder climates.
Can you remind us or give us some kind of guidance as to where your hedging is at the moment specifically in Europe on energy side
Show response
Tony disclosed 25% hedged for Q1 with declining coverage through the year. Noted dollar strength, tariffs, and energy as three key risk buckets.
Should I be reading that as $30 million of the $100 million a quarter is already in Q1 or just making sure I got that right
Show response
Ken clarified that $30M is the net number (synergies minus cost to achieve) for Q1, not a portion of the $100M gross quarterly run rate.
IPInternational Paper1 question · 1 reporting period · 1 of 1 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q4
regarding your commercial improvements year on year that you've guided for now, it looks like about $100,000,000 in North America. If I go back to third quarter, it was sitting at about 300
Show response
NA commercial of $100M is net of export business exit trade-offs. 2027 target of $5B EBITDA splits approximately $3.5B NA and $1.5B EMEA.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| SW Smurfit WestRock | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions |
| IP International Paper | 1 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 3 | 0%none of 3 questions | 1 |
| 2025 Q1 | 1 | 0%none of 1 question | 1 |
| 2025 Q2 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2025 Q3 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2025 Q4 | 1 | 100%1 of 1 question | 1 |
| 2026 Q1 | 1 | 0%none of 1 question | 1 |
| 2026 Q2 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
- 2024 Q43 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 3 questions) · 1 company
- 2025 Q11 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
- 2025 Q22 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2025 Q3No questions recorded
- 2025 Q41 question · challenge rate 100% (1 of 1 question) · 1 company
- 2026 Q11 question · challenge rate 0% (none of 1 question) · 1 company
- 2026 Q22 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Cost Pressure6
- Pricing3
- Guidance Reliability3
- Geographic Expansion2
- M&A2
- Revenue Growth1
- Margin1