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Sentiment · FY2026 Q1
| Analyst | Firm | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Hajde | Wells Fargo | 12 | 0% |
| Philip Ng | Jefferies | 12 | 0% |
| Mark Weintraub | Seaport Research Partners | 11 | 0% |
| Tony Pettinari | Citigroup | 9 | 0% |
| Mike Roxland | Truist Securities | 8 | 0% |
| George Staphos | Bank of America | 7 | 0% |
| Charlie Muir-Sands | BNP Paribas | 7 | 0% |
| Detlef Winckelmann | JPMorgan | 7 | 0% |
| Lars Kjellberg | Stifel | 6 | 0% |
| Lewis Roxburgh | Goodbody | 6 | 0% |
| Firm | Analysts | Questions | ChallengePercentage of questions scored as challenging — where the analyst pushed back, pressed for specifics, or questioned management's assumptions. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of America | 3 | 12 | 0% |
| Jefferies | 1 | 12 | 0% |
| Wells Fargo | 1 | 12 | 0% |
| Seaport Research Partners |
| 1 |
| 11 |
| 0% |
| Citigroup | 1 | 9 | 0% |
| Truist Securities | 2 | 9 | 0% |
| BNP Paribas | 1 | 7 | 0% |
| JPMorgan | 1 | 7 | 0% |
Adjusted EBITDA declined to $1.076 billion on 14% margin as severe weather and unplanned downtime impacted Q1 performance, with energy costs revised sharply higher and North American corrugated volumes still declining year-over-year. Despite the weak start, full-year EBITDA guidance was reaffirmed at $5.0-$5.3 billion as demand inflected positively in April with a sold-out position across key grades. Price increases were announced across multiple paper grades and the European business outperformed with portfolio optimization advancing.
Competitive Dynamics | Cost Pressure | Demand | Pricing | Capital Allocation | Margin | Guidance Reliability | M&A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2025Q1 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| 2025Q2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2025Q3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2025Q4 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2026Q1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| '24Q4 | '25Q1 | '25Q2 | '25Q3 | '25Q4 | '26Q1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Competitive Dynamics | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Cost Pressure | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Demand | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Pricing | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Capital Allocation | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Margin | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Guidance Reliability | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| M&A | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Company | Score | Trend | Rev YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
SW Smurfit WestRock | 3 | -12.5% | |
| AMCR Amcor | 6 | +77.4% | |
| BALL Ball Corporation | 7 | +16.1% | |
| IP International Paper | 4 | +1.2% | |
| PKG Packaging Corporation of America | 6 | +10.6% |