Mark Weintraub

Devin cited solar/renewables demand, marketing data center sites on WY land at large premiums to timber value, and pushing mass timber into data center construction.

Devin attributed cost performance to continued OpEx vigilance and return to normalized operating rates after H2 2025 curtailments. No reason this can't continue. Controllable cost discipline particularly tight in challenging environment.

Devin reported strong momentum: 1 operating, 1 about to operate, 3 under construction, could reach 4-6 under construction by year-end. Wave of new solar and wind options signed recently.

Devin assessed lumber and OSB as not far from balance after significant mill closures. EWP different, no meaningful curtailments yet. Silver lining: when housing demand picks up, stretched supply typically creates strong pricing run.

Devin noted no material pickup in R&R activity yet, partly due to recent Southern weather event. Customers expecting low single-digit year-over-year growth, an improvement over the last couple of years.

Devin saw no meaningful competitive impact from the combined entity. WY competed with them individually and will continue to do so collectively.

Devin confirmed both mix effects and genuine like-for-like price appreciation are contributing to higher HBU prices per acre.

Dave Wold confirmed several billion dollars of unplaced capital pursuing timberland assets. Deferred specifics on bridging NAV gap to December Investor Day. Devin noted both buy and sell transactions reflect WY's high-quality portfolio assembled over 100 years.

Devin confirmed European lumber is tariff-exempt during 232 investigation. Noted administration focus on domestic manufacturing could imply some chance of additional tariffs but no specific intelligence on timing or scope.

Devin speculated competitors are waiting for duty clarity before making curtailment decisions. If pricing expected to rise after duties take effect, logical to wait rather than make big operating moves.

Devin confirmed WY views itself as a low-cost producer. Implied that if WY is at $11M EBITDA, most others are likely at or below breakeven.

Devin quantified impact as less than $10M with operating rates expected in low-to-mid 90s, consistent with Q1.

Dave Wold confirmed full year tax rate driven by TRS earnings mix. Given lumber price strength and potential duty increases, solid Wood Products year is achievable if employment holds.

Devin confirmed facility largely back to normal. Small Q2 impact remaining with most lost volume expected to be recovered over second half of 2025.

Devin confirmed increase driven by both Alabama acquisitions and volume rollover from weather-impacted 2024, all within sustainable harvest range.

Devin clarified limited OSB upside since running at high 90s utilization. TimberStrand and Parallam produced in Canada would be subject to tariffs but products are well received.

Lance answered cleanly: Pine Hill sits outside the guide, with recovery of the majority expected in the second half.

Andy declined to update the 2027 aspiration, citing Middle East uncertainty and spin-related limits on forward-looking statements, deferring detail to Q4.

NORPAC fits strategic shift: closed underperforming mills (Savannah, Red River) and redirected capital to high-performing assets. Mansfield turnaround described as remarkable with new capabilities, team members and investments. NORPAC addresses West Coast paper shortfall, adds lightweight recycled containerboard capacity. Expected high teens or better ROIC on full year basis in 2027.

At least $100M of quasi-onetime transformation costs impacting 2026 including: contract costs on underperforming assets, asset holding/maintenance costs during extended shutdown timelines, and specialty business reliability issues. These provide high-confidence carryover benefit into 2027.

Core large assets showing measurable productivity gains driven by reliability. 7-8% overall improvement since fall 2024. Misses are in ancillary/transformation costs: network distribution, asset holding costs, underperforming contracts (one ending in April costing $20M more than expected), and specialty business underperformance. These are solvable but worse than expectations.

Primarily an accounting exercise, not operational untangling like the prior Sylvamo spin. No large legal entity issues. Precedents suggest 12-15 months but intent is to move as fast as possible.

Vast majority of H2 benefit from already-actioned items, closure tail costs falling off, supply chain/procurement improvements, lighthouse model rollout in mills. Cost counted at penny-level granularity for impacted facilities and people. Acknowledged many moving parts but executing well.

EMEA has excess box capacity rather than mill capacity. Complexity sits in above-country structure rather than corporate center. Proportional cost opportunity as large or larger than NA but in different buckets. Commercial challenges in EMEA are more about refocusing resources on key customers rather than repricing contracts.

Bridge to 2027 is roughly 50-50 net between cost and commercial, more cost on gross basis due to inflation. One more price revision expected in NA to reach mid-cycle. Modest European price improvement expected. The $3.6B bridge to 2026 does NOT include market growth, pricing, or future unexecuted actions.

Confirmed goal to close GCF divestiture by year-end. Said they are well into the process with no reason to believe timeline won't hold, though acknowledged tough financing markets.

Silvernail acknowledged issues stem from years of underinvestment, not new problems. Redeploying capital from Red River and non-strategic assets into mills with competitive advantage. Described it as foundational work requiring consistent investment.

Silvernail is confident first European price increase will flow through but cautious on second due to weak demand. European market has longer lag from paper price to box price.

Silvernail explained H2 ramp is from cost actions already taken (Red River, matrix org) flowing through, not new initiatives. Q2 is same EBITDA level as Q1 but higher quality earnings.

Silvernail broke it into ~$175-200M of mill reliability issues and the balance in productivity. Root causes are a decade of underinvestment in maintenance and workforce experience changeover.

Silvernail confirmed volume recovery timeline on track, expects gap to close in back half of 2025. Noted box plant service improvements showing up in NPS and quoting opportunities.

Kent laid out realization: roughly 70 to 75% of the first increase in Q3, with the second increase weighted to Q4.

Kent forecast conservative ~$0.10 sequential improvement Q1-to-Q2 from mix, productivity, and some price. Expect accretion in Q2 and further improvement in Q3 with stronger seasonality. Tom noted initial mill difficulties are behind them and performance significantly better.

Mark confirmed the big pricing benefit comes into Q3. Some benefit late in Q2 but majority in Q3. Both Mark and Tom agreed this is the correct way to model it.

Tom described much improved conditions, tariff uncertainty cleared, GDP up 4%+ with 5%+ forecast, wages ahead of inflation for first time in 4+ years. Year-ago had new administration uncertainty, potential tariffs, many question marks.

Kent quantified Q4-to-Q1 cost step-up at $0.45-$0.50 per share, with a little under half recovered in Q2 excluding Wallula. Wallula cost improvements kick in more in Q2, providing additional benefit.

Mark confirmed tens of millions CapEx still good estimate. Similar to International Falls playbook over 14 years. Sheet feeders and box plants well capitalized. Kent confirmed bonus depreciation on PP&E allocation significantly reduced Q3 cash taxes.

Tom confirmed continued business wins through existing account growth. Not getting lift from economy due to tariff uncertainty and starts/stops throughout the year. Beef and building products are the drags, not competitive losses.

Tom said industry right-sizing to demand. PCA also rationalizing poor assets on corrugated side. Two box plant closures in Q4, facilities where capitalization isn't the answer, customers will be served from larger/better-equipped nearby plants. Mark noted PCA has closed 20+ plants over last 16 years while making 25 acquisitions.

Tom said Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024 expected roughly flat on shipments. Risks skewed to upside once tariff uncertainty clears. Pent-up demand from lean customer inventories.

Tom confirmed Greif EBITDA estimates already above $212M from price increases. Dallas synergies built in conservatively with tremendous expansion upside.

Tom said it's both macro seasonality and customer pipeline from new facilities. Second half historically heavier for PCA's mix. Glendale ramping up with lined-up customers.

Non-contract is ~30%. Beat came from faster non-contract implementation and outside liner/medium sales. Contract side rolling through on normal 90-day cycle.

Tom said they took a conservative approach on RISI-tied contracts in Q1. Non-contractual price increases being implemented. Confirmed upside exists if RISI recognizes increase.

Tony pointed to prior-cycle margins above 18% as achievable but explicitly would not commit to timing, saying whether Q1 or Q2 next year he did not know.

Tony split the answer cleanly by grade and confirmed under follow-up that no kraftliner increase has been announced yet.

Tony wouldn't commit to specific 5% number (depends on market) but very happy with trajectory. Not all plants perfect yet, still need investments, people changes. Bringing every NA manager through operating model course. Standout performers emerging. Aspiration remains 8-12% corrugated margins, question is timing not whether.

Tony described SBS sold-out position as relatively new phenomenon (not expected even in February). Selectively announced some SBS price increases. Timing of broader moves depends on market conditions. Not comfortable with profitability in current position, keeping a weather eye on the situation. Acknowledged it's not just up to SW, market must support it.

Ken described proactive downtime management philosophy, better to manage inventory than build unnecessary stocks. Q1 always heavy for maintenance downtime. Beyond that, will wait to see how demand develops. Tony highlighted stock reduction as a big opportunity, grade optimization reducing widths (LatAm went from 18 to 3, NA starting from ~200 targeting 40).

Ken quantified 2026 discrete items: remaining synergies $40-50M, energy headwind $60-70M, fiber tailwind ~$50M. Cost takeout programs designed to offset wage/labor inflation, treated as one bucket. Second half expected to be progressively better than first half. Range of $5.0-5.3B designed for flexibility given early February visibility.

Tony expects volume inflection from Q3 2026 as unprofitable contracts expire in Q1/Q2 2026. Described colossal pipeline of new quality business already being landed but requiring qualification time.

Tony described export market as weak with high customer inventories in South America. Expects a sharp price recovery at some point. Domestic outside sales continue with important long-term customers, no real change from legacy approach.

Tony confirmed switching is straightforward with minor machine adjustments. Customers report SBS runs better than CRB on their machines due to cleaner sheet, though CRB producers would likely disagree.

Tony cited demand uncertainty as key holdback: no US volume pickup yet, Germany weak, transition period of replacing lost business. Several cost items improved but volume visibility insufficient to raise guidance.

Ken disclosed only $8M net FX impact on EBITDA as European and LatAm moves offset. Sensitivity: every $0.01 euro/dollar move = ~$12M EBITDA impact, ~$30M on debt side.

Ken confirmed slightly negative FX impact, particularly in Latin America, but not material. Offered to provide modeling sensitivities for euro/dollar.

Ken detailed cost headwinds: energy ~$350M YoY, labor/inflation ~$200M, other raw materials ~$100M, downtime ~$150M YoY. Offsets: NA box pricing up ~8% YoY, NA OCC relief of $100-150M. Tony explained European OCC spike was triggered by panic bidding at Italian auction by new capacity entrant.