Gabe Hajde

Tony committed to a specific timeframe and named the driver, easier e-commerce comparisons plus new business wins, though he did not break out markets.

Ken explained the paperboard/SBS decline offsets corrugated gains this quarter, with recovery weighted to Q3 and Q4. Direct and specific on the mechanics.

Tony confirmed second $50/ton not fully embedded in guidance but will partly offset material cost increases (freight, energy, supplier costs). Security of supply question returning to customer conversations for first time in a while. Ken updated cost bridge: energy now $270-290M headwind (up from $80M in Feb), freight ~$50M headwind, fiber ~$50M tailwind, labor less of a headwind (~$50M vs $100M expected).

Tony described dramatic shift in global containerboard market. European paper that was available at any price 3 months ago now unavailable until September. US paper exports to LatAm down ~30%. World containerboard market (~100M tons) growing 1-2% annually with significant capacity removed, shortage emerging as demand strengthens. Expects this to be beneficial as year progresses.

Ken confirmed $220M full-year downtime, declined corrugated/consumer split for disclosure reasons. Q4 was $85M. European utilization target mid-90s, easily achieved given integration. NA target mid-90s, Laurent working actively toward it. Tony said half of 1.2B sq meters lost will be implemented by Q1/early Q2, another half of pipeline expected to convert in 2026 with rest flowing into early 2027.

Tony attributed ~3-4% of their ~10% volume decline to market weakness, rest to deliberate strategy. Believes US economy is strong and will return to growth. Expects more promotions from branded goods companies to drive box demand. Ken provided helpful rule of thumb: 1% volume growth ≈ ~$60M group EBITDA. Tony endorsed third-party 1.5% NA market growth forecast as doable.

Ken explained $2.4-2.5B is what the business needs to grow and improve, not a trade-off between cash flow and EBITDA. Portfolio approach avoids concentration. Tony emphasized remaining agile and never overinvesting.

Tony described Germany still lagging with occasional false dawns. Eastern Europe and Iberia growing. Ken noted Q3 European box prices ticked up another 0.5%. Future pricing depends on demand, with any changes being a Q2-Q3 2026 event.

Tony sees strong cross-selling opportunity especially in Europe where they're more advanced. Consumer team gaining selling tools from corrugated innovation. SBS long position strategic update expected late 2025 or early 2026.

Ken broke down Q3 bridge: $50M lower downtime + $50M recovered fiber relief. Flat volume assumption, no price baked in. Full year: energy headwind improved from $350M to $250M, recovered fiber from $155M to $105-110M, labor slightly better. Tony expects flat H2 vs H1 volumes.

Ken explained paper-to-box price lag of 3-6 months, meaning H2 paper price increases won't hit box prices until Q4/early next year. Now closer to 60-40 index/non-index vs prior 50-50. Tony noted new competitor machines not yet in market, expected in 3-4 months.

Ken confirmed $50-60M aggregate EBITDA benefit from both mill closures plus $100M CapEx avoided over five years. The $400M+ operational improvement is the second bucket beyond synergies. Tony added asset values underneath the mills will recover at least 50% of cash cost.

Tony explained they're partially decoupling by addressing individual mispricing but still using RISI as benchmark since no better alternative exists. Ken detailed shift from blended to individual mill/box plant margins.

Ken indicated broadly similar quarterly phasing with upside potential from paper price recovery in H2. Tony noted typical seasonal pattern of busier spring/summer/fall months.

Hassfurther summarized the supply/demand environment in one word: tight.

Mark confirmed PCA deliberately accelerated corrective action leveraging their technology engineering group, learning from Boise acquisition experience. Kent said Greif expected to be slightly accretive in Q1 and improving through the year with seasonality.

Mark's goal is to bring CapEx below $800M. Gas turbines keep it higher near-term. Box plant projects finishing. Wants organizational discipline to pause and optimize recent investments. Historical precedent: lowered to $600M in 2022-2023 before ramping again.

Tom acknowledged more positive vibe across entire customer base. 2025 was unusual with start-stop ordering driven by tariff/import uncertainty. That has largely cleared. February also remains very strong. Could not definitively separate PCA-specific vs market-wide improvement.

Mark highlighted electricity as biggest cost factor. Kent added labor, chemicals, supplies, insurance, rent. Mark doesn't see electricity costs abating due to data center demand. Planning 3 gas turbine projects to take mills off-grid within 2.5 years with 1.5-year payback.

Tom declined to discuss forward pricing. Highlighted PCA proprietary lightweighting technology as competitive advantage, solutions taken to customers to fight inflation. Mills expected to meet stringent specifications enabling these capabilities.

Tom said business as usual on bidding. Noted industry supply now very much in line with demand given recent mill/plant closures.

Kent confirmed asset acquisition structure provides depreciation shield. Bonus depreciation at higher level under Big Beautiful Bill. Modeled ~5.5% interest on new debt.

Mark confirmed CapEx tracking to guide. Bob said 3 rail increases in Q1 with 3 more in Q2. Ohio plant broke ground in February.

Bob explained the math is closer to mid-$50s per ton when accounting for inventory, export/domestic mix, and the prior $20/ton decline in late 2023.

Mark confirmed mill optimization projects are ongoing plus four big box plant projects. About $250M of CapEx going to the four big projects this year.

Andy reaffirmed the spin as the priority but left the door open to an appropriate approach on fiduciary grounds.

Andy quantified carryover of $350 million to $400 million in NA and $200 million to $250 million in Europe, and said demand is 4% to 5% below original expectations.

Silvernail confirmed no January price increase impacts are included in the Q1 outlook, as they were not yet reflected in published indexes.

Silvernail estimates 3 years to close the CapEx underinvestment gap, constrained by organization's ability to effectively spend rather than dollar availability.

Steve confirmed mid-single-digit EBITDA growth is implied over the transition and 18-month period, driven by synergies plus modest volume growth, landing within the analyst's $3.8-4.0 billion range, and framed CapEx at a steady ~5% of sales to support organic growth, not materially above historic levels.

PK clarified healthcare was the one weaker focus category. US winter storms impacted production and customer pull-through. Weaker cold/flu season also a factor. Multiple positive wins including pharma contracts, GLP-1, generics sustainability partnership, new Malaysia coating facility. Non-focus nutrition weakness in discretionary categories like confectionery.

PK described regional divergence: strong NA medical growth offset by weaker European pharma, averaging to flat overall. Pharma recovery lagging medical. Expects continued improvement into calendar 2026 and H2 FY2026. Healthcare remains a strategic priority.

Hajde asked if reducing alcohol mix remains a goal; Lewis redirected to can share gains, noting beer is neither Ball's only nor biggest category.

Lewis confirmed Florida Can contributed a small but not immaterial portion of 4.8% growth. No Q4 pull-forward observed, January can market continues growing. Cross-border tariff costs too prohibitive to tap Mexico latent capacity.

Lewis confirmed flat NA operating earnings framing is directionally right for 2026. Oregon is a one-line plant, expecting aspirationally ~1 billion cans in 2027. Start-up costs in 2026, earnings contribution in 2027.