Philip Ng

Andy described the box network as in optimization mode and committed to sustained investment for another two to three years.

Andy conceded prior pricing has been fully consumed by input inflation and declined to predict how much of the new increase reaches the bottom line.

IP modestly short on paper and buying in the market. Export markets tight and acting as leading indicator. Silvernail stated the paper market in the US is very tight. No additional NA price increase announced for June but declined to comment on future pricing. Tight market conditions consistent with competitor commentary.

Silvernail acknowledged not enough macro cushion in guidance, admitted disappointment in missing quarterly numbers. Committed to not backing down on strategy despite macro headwinds. Cited massive transformation work: 20% NA paper capacity removed, 10-15% box footprint rationalized, corporate restructuring, IT infrastructure changes, massive EMEA restructuring. Holds himself accountable first. Trying to build more cushion going forward.

January started strong. Winter storm estimated at $20-25M impact for Q1. No price in guidance provides meaningful upside. Silvernail sees more upside than downside given pricing optionality. Main risk remains global economy.

Incremental $200M of cost actions in 2026 not yet announced or actioned in 2025. EMEA expects to outperform market by 50bps on top of expected 1.7% growth. Market share wins running ahead of schedule.

Cannot provide specifics due to European consultation process requirements. Working hand-in-hand with works councils and regulators. Committed to moving aggressively on rightsizing but within legal and regulatory frameworks.

Targeting approximately 2% above-market performance in 2026 in North America based on known wins and losses. Market assumption of 1-1.5% growth plus 2% outperformance would deliver meaningful volume growth.

Europe as a whole is cash-negative due to restructuring costs. Pockets of mill and box system losing money on a cash basis. Evaluating the non-internally consumed paper business strategically. Declined to share specific split between integrated/unintegrated margins for competitive reasons.

Asset quality described as mixed bag as expected. Three pieces to paper supply: ~50% manufactured and consumed internally, remainder sold externally or bought on open market. Strategy is to drive integration like in US. Integrated players winning, commoditized paper producers losing.

Market 2-3 points weaker than expected year-to-date. Mill operations could have been upside but were not. Within range outlined at March Investor Day. Europe on lower end of expectations due to market softness.

Silvernail said mid-single-digit topline risk for GCF from Asian trade disruption but noted limited replacement alternatives. Broader tariff impact is second-order through demand and inflation.

Silvernail confirmed current demand levels support $3.5-4B range toward mid-to-lower end. Noted 3-3.5 point swing in North America box demand from January expectations.

Silvernail would invest more if organization could effectively execute. Targeting $1.2B but expects aggressive investment over next few years to close decade-long underinvestment gap.

Silvernail described sequential earnings ramp with cost actions ramping through 2025 and commercial wins from current pipeline. No major contract wins baked into outlook.

Tony answered the analogy directly and quantified it under follow-up, putting loss-making plants at 10 out of 100 versus about 80 at the start.

Tony framed the profit-centre model and Ken addressed the capacity question head-on, citing higher build costs and a two to three year ramp.

Ken detailed gas hedging: Q2 ~50%, Q3 and Q4 ~33% each. Active hedging policy avoids overhedging. Tony explained box price increases: sheet-feeding/commodity side going through now, converted products to noncontractual customers underway, full implementation expected Q3-Q4 as contracts (3-6 months) roll. Minor Q2 uptick, full benefit in H2.

Tony explained Birmingham mill was highest-cost, wrong width, needed investment that wasn't justified. Supply arrangements organized both internally and externally before announcement. Delayed from February to ensure supply continuity was secured. Philosophy: only invest in mills with long-term future and low-cost position.

Laurent described strong customer engagement in experience centers (Dallas, Richmond, Mexico City). Customers sharing pain points and aspirations. Ken noted value-selling journey is just beginning in US, Head of Innovation hired only 9 months ago. Third experience center opening in Chicago. Customers visiting Dallas center described as 'blown away' by cost-saving opportunities.

Tony said most bad business has been exited with a couple of contracts remaining. Laurent described pipeline in layers: some very close to happening, some less warm, some prospects. Sales force reorganized closer to operating units for more direct customer contact. Tony emphasized having capacity to sell, couple of hundred salespeople across the US now with machine capacity available.

Ken noted working capital at ~16% of sales vs SK's 8-9%, target somewhere in between. Rationalizing board grades and flute sizes to optimize. Tony deferred SBS mill conversion question to February strategic plan, noting very good assets under evaluation.

Tony estimated market down 3-4% with ~5% of SW's volume loss from deliberate strategy. Ken quantified Q4 incremental downtime at $60-70M EBITDA impact, predominantly North American. Europe running mid-90s, no material incremental downtime expected there or in LatAm.

Tony expects nearly all unprofitable contracts exited within a year. Hired new innovation person from a major brewery company 4-5 months ago. Global innovation conference in September to pool knowledge across legacy businesses. Not envisaging significant downtime in H2 beyond normal maintenance.

Ken detailed European Q2 headwinds: recovered fiber $28M, labor $17M, energy higher than expected. Box prices up 3% but offset by lower volume and cost headwinds. H2 outlook better on recovered fiber, energy, and labor.

Tony described March/early April weakness followed by stabilization. Not banking on a strong second-half recovery. Consumer business had reasonable Q1 but market getting choppier. Ken noted 75% of consumer business is food and beverage, providing resilience.

Ken quantified $50-60M EBITDA benefit and $100M CapEx avoidance over five years. Tony confirmed they continue to review the system across all grades and geographies, noting SBS strategy still being developed.

Tony provided clear detail on timeline and early results of value-over-volume, noting volume degradation expected in H1 2025 but value should offset. Mentioned Brazil customer already returning.

Tony explained the paper-to-box pricing seesaw model, noting EUR 30-80 price increases being implemented in February across European containerboard grades.

Kowlzan tied margin durability to roughly $6 billion of recapitalization but stressed pricing discipline is essential.

Mark said Jackson and Counce outages executed well and ahead of schedule. Massillon and Riverville running 97%+ uptime. Tom explained Greif inventory reduction is about converting to PCA-grade mix for better customer performance and cost optimization, not just volume management. Acknowledged the tension with tight linerboard but grade optimization takes priority. Counce outage pulled forward to Q1 to support linerboard going forward.

Tom said implementation on normal timeline for both non-contract and contract business. Consumer has been resilient. Tax refunds expected to boost second half. Customer base feels very good about their business going forward. Disappointed by initial published price downturn but dealing with it.

Kent confirmed Q2 cost run rate is best proxy for rest of year. Will manage through freight optimization and operational efficiency. Market conditions dictate input costs.

Tom said inventory restocking is some factor but not majority. Customers preparing for more demand. February remains very strong following January. Previously lagging segments showing new life. Mortgage rates under 6% described as catalyst for housing.

Tom declined to pin a specific number but said PCA is positioned for normal growth plus a little. Focused on maximizing returns on capital already invested. Demand expected to be up for the year.

Mark confirmed $240M EBITDA and synergy targets on track. Will have more to discuss on synergy opportunities in next couple of calls now that they can run at full capacity.

Mark said no major outages needed, future mill improvements will be done through 24-hour monthly outages and annual 5-6 day shutdowns, not extended outages. Massillon comprehensive work already completed. Inventory drawdown will happen over next couple quarters. No Jackson-scale conversion situation.

Tom declined to size segments but confirmed they are relatively large. Beef is long-term issue (2-3 year rebuild from 70-year low herds). Building products improving slightly as rates come down and remodeling turns. Other segments steady and growing. Customers already at very low inventory levels, operating cautiously.

Mark acknowledged the opportunity but did not commit to increased buybacks.

Tom said mill production will match demand. Pulling forward outage to Q2 so they can run full out in 2H. Export may also increase in 2H.

Glendale plant starts this spring, consolidating 3 locations into one. Will be immediately accretive. NY and PA projects finish this year with near-term disruption.

Tom credited core customer relationships, reliability, quality and financial flexibility to expand rapidly. Sees solid runway for growth opportunities.

Lewis confirmed South America on algorithm with 4-6% volume growth and 2x operating leverage expected again in 2026. Excited about World Cup impact on can volumes.

Lewis described standardized shift handover and operations meetings across all 67 global plants. Has met top leadership of 75%+ of volume. Investments (Florida Can, Millersburg, Benepack) all committed to returns above EVA hurdle.

Rabbitt confirmed start-up costs concentrated in H2 2026, with operating leverage improvement materializing in 2027. Mexico ends domestication occurring more in H1, while Millersburg is the bigger H2 headwind.

Fisher confirmed both pricing and efficiency levers. Tight market supports elongated pricing improvement. Ball Business System changes and early AI deployment in commercial and plant operations provide additional margin runway without burdening customers.

Rabbitt indicated 2026 buybacks will moderate from 2025's $3B+ pace to historical averages. Fisher teased M&A as 'yes and' alongside buybacks, suggesting European opportunities. Conservative balance sheet maintained.

Fisher indicated 2026 mix headwinds will be smaller but not fully resolved. Oregon facility start-up costs and tariff-related inefficiencies will be transient in 2026. Expects clean 2027 with improved profitability.

Fisher noted Northwest facility coming online, Florida Can helping. If 5% growth persists, may need incremental line additions. Tariffs on Mexico imports creating tighter Southwest/Texas capacity.

Fisher explained large customer concentration in Brazil; historically, customer catches up to market growth over 12-month periods. Argentina/Chile recovery offsetting Brazil softness.

Fisher preferred volume growth on existing European margins over pricing, with efficiency gains driving expansion. North America tight but focused on growth within existing footprint.

Fisher clarified minimal pre-buy, positive trends continuing. Expects more aggressive beer pricing in peak season. Non-alcoholic ahead of expectations. Industry in 1-3% range.

Fisher acknowledged innovator/acquirer dynamic but emphasized large customer health as the primary volume driver, maintaining balanced portfolio approach.

Fisher explained favorable comp setup and incremental volume pickups. Described contract pricing as stable with some structural benefits from investment alignment.

Jackson said the consolidated trend is toward stabilization, with episodic volatility in specific categories and markets, and stressed walk-away discipline.

Jackson described a modest deal market, pushed back on sellers using five-year averages, and said all capital deployment numbers are simply smaller this cycle.

CEO differentiated public vs private builders. Public doing decent with some at best-ever levels. Private (40-45% of starts) more tepid, war/stock volatility causing wait-and-see. Before war, there was optimism around mortgage rates.

CEO firmly defended core focus. Very little in insulation/roofing. Not intimidated by any competitor. Strategic advantages in core market will continue to win. Admired competitor's storytelling but asserted BLDR is biggest and best.

CEO described political climate, affordability challenges, elevated incentives, new home inventory concerns. Sees 2026 growth realistic but too early to be definitive. Consumer uncertainty a major headwind.

CEO emphasized local market capacity management over national averages. Filled holes from prior cycle with rifle-shot investments. Expects less capacity spending going forward until growth clarity emerges.

CEO cited price discovery difficulty. Focused on core strike zone of servicing builders and R&R pros. Tremendous track record of value creation. Won't stop looking but won't force it.

CEO acknowledged inventory has run away from builders. Not catastrophic. Couples with potential rate cuts to set up reasonable 2026 outlook but too early to say.

CFO confirmed intent to pass through tariff costs. CEO added China is the big player, BFS imports virtually nothing from China directly. Acknowledged uncertainty on timing and actual fall-through.

CFO confirmed no assumed ramp, just normal seasonal patterns with disproportionate benefit in spring/summer in northern geographies. CEO added mostly M&A and comps driving percentage improvement.

CEO confirmed active pipeline with mix of smaller tuck-ins and occasional larger targets. M&A remains a priority for shareholder value creation.

CEO described builder behavior as consistent with rate buydowns. Starts pullback over last 4-6 months is a bigger part of the conversation.

Kevin confirmed broadening into power generation, chemical, food and beverage, manufacturing and water.

Bill expects modest inflation ahead and candidly flagged a temporary gross-margin benefit from supplier price-increase timing that should normalize.

Kevin described broad-based, building backlogs across commercial/mechanical, fire, Waterworks and industrial, though project gestation timing varies.

Brundage said ~2/3 of branded suppliers announced mid-single-digit increases and expects pricing to move to mild inflation in Q4; 90% of revenue is branded and largely domestic.

Murphy said bidding and open orders keep growing, led by data centers and large capital projects, while the traditional nonres market stays challenged.

Bill attributed the 70bps GM decline to compressed volumes, a sixth quarter of commodity deflation (the majority of the decline) and HVAC/Waterworks mix pressure; tariffs may stabilize deflation.

CFO reaffirmed the 9%-9.5% full-year adjusted operating margin, expecting improvement as volume growth continues, deflation eases, and finished-goods pricing inflects positive in the back half.

CEO said large capital projects continue to offset weak traditional non-res; data center demand is robust and unlikely to slow under the new administration, while EV/battery remains spotty.