George Staphos

Lovins reframed the math to roughly 2.5% for the first half rather than confirming 6-6.5%, and noted second-half pricing largely offsets the reversal.

Lovins confirmed the $0.30 first-half figure and said roughly $0.25 reverses in Q3 with the remainder hanging over into Q4.

Stander argued item-level tagging generates the data AI parses, creating a flywheel for further IL adoption, plus internal productivity gains.

CFO expects low-to-mid single-digit price increases in Q2 to offset high-single-digit sequential inflation. CEO said pricing/inflation gap improved from historic quarter lag to near-real-time. HVC Materials softness from tough comps, distributor timing, and auto end market.

CEO outlined expanded scenario planning: additional productivity in low-volume scenarios, accelerated innovation-to-market, and commercial share gains. CFO noted prebuy scale much lower than 2021-2022 cycle, about one month of inventory build vs three-to-four quarters previously.

CEO said existing go-to-market teams are underutilized; no incremental cost expected. On paper supply, multiple sources secured post-2023 disruption with strategic procurement approach.

CFO detailed multiple factors: soft base volumes, prior-year one-time benefits, and extra calendar days with below-average shipping. Sequential Q3-to-Q4 decline in line with historical 60bp seasonality.

CEO framed Walmart as both strategic catalyst for food IL adoption and material revenue driver, sizing it at high single to low double-digit IL growth over two years.

CFO detailed paper-driven deflation in Europe/Asia. CEO explained IL apparel outperformance vs base driven by new rollouts including Inditex loss detection.

CEO indicated Materials exit rates flat. Embelex growth expected in Q4. Detailed IL apparel innovation in loss detection, read rate improvements, and self-checkout.

CEO confirmed some Vietnam-bound sourcing shifts within Q2 but overall muted. Current apparel orders roughly flat to prior year entering Q3.

CEO confirmed ample capacity for apparel sourcing shifts and emphasized IL underlying programs are on track absent tariff impacts.

CEO estimated ~10% of China apparel volume might move; CFO described scenario playbook including belt-tightening and restructuring acceleration.

CEO provided detailed growth expectations for each high-value platform including Embelex, Vestcom, and the World Cup 2026 tailwind.

Management directly addressed logistics volume assumptions, confirmed slight decline built into guidance and disclosed aligned volumes with customer.

CFO quantified the Q2 lumber hit at ~$20 million, roughly half transportation-related, and guided to improving costs and volumes in Q3.

Devin provided specific math: softwood lumber duties plus 232 10% tariff total currently ~45%, could drop to ~35% with AR7 preliminary results around August, possibly pushed to fall.

Devin noted AR7 could bring all-in duties from 45% to 35% effective around August. SYP pullback after Q1 run-up is normalizing. Dave Wold quantified tariff impact on CapEx costs for steel and aluminum.

Devin noted four consecutive down years in housing starts pressuring EWP unlike lumber/OSB which have seen curtailments. WY's realizations holding better than competitors. New products planned for Builders Show.

Devin attributed mix benefits to scale and customer diversity. Q1 expected slightly lower due to more thinning activity (pulpwood mix). India export timing affects quarter-to-quarter volumes depending on shipping schedule.

Devin attributed the wider loss to the extremely tough pricing environment. Emphasized continued focus on OpEx, efficiency, and reliability. Expects positive EBITDA with even slight pricing improvement.

Devin confirmed a path to breakeven exists through mill-level first-quartile roadmaps and innovation. Noted post-pandemic inflation has made it harder to reach pre-pandemic black-at-the-bottom levels. More detail at Investor Day.

Dave Wold quantified the portfolio optimization benefit at approximately $50M annual EBITDA increase since 2020. Current acquisitions at 21x EBITDA multiple vs 45x for divestitures.

Devin confirmed harvest levels remain stable at 35.5M tons regardless of short-term demand fluctuations, set to sustainable harvest levels.

Devin noted tariffs not yet meaningfully impacting lumber pricing today. Saw brief run-up around April 2 announcement that reversed when wood products were exempted.

Devin declined to share deal-specific economics to protect commercial negotiations. CCS expected to start showing in P&L around 2029 with first injection.

Devin confirmed strong internal R&D resources and experienced leadership transferring from existing facility. CapEx will ramp in 2026 and taper in 2027.

Devin cited cold weather impact and market skepticism that tariffs will actually go into effect as reasons for muted lumber pricing.

Dave Wold expressed confidence in continued dividend growth supported by timberland acquisitions, NCS growth, and OpEx improvements. $1B debt maturities in 2026 expected to refinance at comparable mid-5% rates.

Staphos questioned missing operating leverage; Lewis and Rabbitt cited tight capacity, startup costs and strong demand straining the network.

Lewis confirmed no direct Middle East business or supply chain exposure. Aluminum cost impact managed through immediate pass-through contracts. Can is winning in every region including EMEA, with volumes accelerating entering Q2.

Lewis identified two EMEA one-offs: Benepack closing February vs planned January, and UAC Saudi Arabia divestiture creating prior-year comp headwind. Core EMEA in line with 3-5% algorithm. No concerning contract renewals. Operating earnings per can is the new key profitability metric.

Lewis acknowledged the doubling down on profitable growth is a rallying cry to achieve 2x operating leverage, which was missed in NA in 2025. Rabbitt confirmed $35M headwinds mean NA EBIT expectations should be tempered, validating Staphos's flat-to-down framing.

Lewis noted Q4 was strongest leverage quarter at nearly 2x, missed only by tariff-related ends import costs. For 2026, highlighted America's 250th birthday celebrations and World Cup as demand catalysts alongside ongoing can substrate shift.

Fisher cited direct conversations with top strategic partners confirming can growth commitment. No returnable glass shift in South America yet despite inflation. Brazil 2026 protected by election and World Cup. CSD players pushing 7.5-oz format as value proposition.

Fisher quantified tariff pass-through at 25-30% price increase to customers, negligible per can. Noted ICE enforcement impacts specific customer segments but cans offsetting through at-home channel gains. Tariff reversal would help customer COGS.

Fisher said top-end 3% already embedded. If tariff-affected customer recovers, they can serve from Monterrey. If energy growth persists at 15-20%, will be living hand to mouth in peak season.

Fisher quantified hedge rolloff at about a quarter per 12-pack. Cans still cheaper than PET and glass. May shift buying patterns toward larger multipacks rather than substrate switch.

Fisher cited direct conversations and public brewer statements about concentrated peak-season marketing efforts. Expects combination of public marketing and volume-oriented pricing.

Fisher explained Ball Business System rollout is about 2/3 complete, driving safety, quality, and production records. On pre-buy, estimated $100-200M possible but minimal YoY delta.

Fisher directly addressed both China aluminum tariffs (mitigated to minimal impact) and Mexico tariffs (volume risk depends on magnitude). Transparent on scenarios.

Fisher confirmed investments are additive to existing goals, not required to meet them. Brief but clear answer after multi-part question.

Hassfurther gave specific legacy billings up 1.5% so far and about 2% expected for Q3, against a tough comp.

Tom confirmed legacy bookings and billings up 4.5% in April. No prebuy seen. Some business being moved from legacy to Greif plants for system optimization. Customers continue to operate with very lean inventories. Tom described price increase environment as muddy waters.

Mark said storm caused ~$0.05 impact with Riverville hardest hit. Kent added higher recycled fiber and freight costs plus lower mix in January/February. Tom noted unexpected seasonality, Q1 is Greif corrugated's weakest quarter. February mill productivity was about 10% higher than pre-acquisition. Expected to be accretive starting Q2 with ~$0.10 sequential improvement.

Kent quantified: stock comp $6M higher than Q2 2025, freight/fiber/chemicals ~$0.15 higher Q1-to-Q2, DD&A ~$0.03 higher, outages $0.22 higher. Tax rate stepping up from ~23% to ~26% (Q1 had equity vesting benefit). Stock comp $17M higher for full year 2026 due to timing change.

Kent quantified Q4-to-Q1 mill cost increase at about $15 million or $10/ton, ex freight and with partial Wallula benefit. Mark said normal January inflationary items plus winter weather impacts. Storm assessment ongoing, multiple plants down from Texas to Mid-Atlantic.

Mark said 200 PCA personnel spent 3.5 months rebuilding Massillon from bearings to gas turbines. 15% improvement in operational efficiency at both mills, now very close to PCA standards. Kent said inventory was ~10K tons above forecast from purchase commitment absorption and slightly lower shipments. Tom confirmed Greif had trade commitments that PCA is discontinuing.

Mark said CorrChoice converting side well capitalized. Mills need operational improvements, 100+ PCA personnel deployed to each mill from Day 1. Kent confirmed $240M historical EBITDA run rate with $60M synergy target on run-rate basis after year 2, tracking to ~$20M by Q2 2026. Riverville already running at 97.2% in September, up dramatically. Culture highly compatible.

Tom said Q4 bookings/billings up slightly over 1% against very tough comps. Beef (cattle herds at 70-year low) and building materials are the two large segments dragging volumes. All other segments performing very well.

Tom corrected to Q3 2024 comp. Bookings up 2% vs tough Q3 2024 comp and up 10% vs end of Q2. Mark cited 99% uptime and efficient operations during demand curtailment.

Mark not worried about near-term supply. Multiple levers available including export pullback, mill productivity improvements, and potential acquisitions.

Tom confirmed bookings up 4.1% entering Q2. Mark characterized customer base as cautious. Bob noted Q1 beat included some pricing pull-forward expected in Q2.

Tom confirmed bookings/billings up 8% in January. Mark acknowledged some cost inefficiencies from capital projects but said it's the growth engine.

Mark cited energy, chemicals, labor/medical, transportation, rail increases, and service costs. Said capital spending helps but can't fully offset inflation without pricing.

Lance named the Riverdale ramp, June price publication flow-through and cost-out maturation, and said diesel is simply set to the strip.

Andy said the big structural moves in the US footprint are done and Europe is still in the throes of facility rationalization.

$450M of $650M highly reliable: $300M price/volume/mix/seasonality plus $150M planned maintenance timing. $100M Riverdale non-repeat also high confidence with ramp-up as only risk. The $150M cost-out is where risk concentrates, footprint rationalization execution, mill capacity utilization improvement, supply chain/procurement cube utilization. $20M of cost-out benefit already realized in Q1. Pricing bridge on Slide 13 reflects net $50/ton flowing through contract by contract.

$700M cost taken out to date, targeting more than $1B total. US has $200-300M latent cost opportunity at normal operating rates (ancillary costs, mill productivity). IT outsourcing flowing through mostly in H1. EMEA has 31 facility closures delivering $200M run rate savings with another ~$100M to go. Savannah closure was ~$300M cost savings offset by EBITDA loss but a ROIC home run.

Maintaining dividend through 2026. Will review policy in conjunction with shareholders through the spin process. Substantial restructuring and one-time costs creating temporary FCF shortfall vs dividend. Price increase out to customers with $90M EBITDA per $10/ton not in guidance.

FCF swing driven primarily by $500M+ profit shortfall from market volume and price versus Investor Day expectations. Incremental $50-100M in transformation costs from accelerated timing. Silvernail committed to not pulling back on CapEx despite market softness.

Wins coming from medium-to-large customers through focused resource deployment on strategic accounts. Protein and fruits/vegetables segments highlighted as strengths. Added 22% more salespeople year-over-year. Silvernail described industry dynamic of chasing volume sugar highs and explained IP's discipline to avoid that trap.

Confirmed EMEA EBITDA guidance range from Investor Day is being held despite softer demand. Clarified the $3.8B run rate reference was for the total company ex-GCF, not Europe alone.

Silvernail expressed more confidence in NA due to longer engagement, strong commercial progress under Tom Hamic, and converting side moving from underperformance to winning back share. Europe earlier in 80/20 journey with sequential improvement driven by commercial recovery.

Silvernail corrected that the apparent decline is a bridge presentation issue, Q2 shows only the incremental one month vs Q1's two months of DS Smith, not a decline.

Silvernail clarified IP focuses on 80 customers across all sizes. Wins are in local bigger customers where IP had previously fallen down on service. No major customer defections visible in pipeline.

Steve explained the -1% price/mix (excluding raw material pass-through) is consistent with the prior year and reflects normal competitive re-earning of business without a real economic impact, and pointed to the comparable (lower-left) segment view as the best like-for-like read on margins.

PK explained: 30% non-contracted (quick general price increases), 70% contracted with some extraordinary clauses but mostly collaborative negotiations. Not one-off but ongoing dialogue as inflation evolves. Steve noted inventory buffer helps mitigate timing of cost increases and supports fair, consistent customer pricing.

PK noted focus categories 50-100bps better than core. Pet care high single-digit growth, meat protein low single-digit growth. Healthcare down slightly (weak flu season). Steve explained Flexibles EBIT: only $10M of $50M EBIT synergies in Flex, core Flex business actually roughly flat ex synergies. Rigid got $30M of synergies driving the 15% growth.

PK described LatAm combination rationale as broader complementary product suite. Beauty & Wellness win in LatAm combined Amcor rigid container with Berry closure (systems sell), plus multi-site contingency. Emphasized pipeline momentum at 180 days exceeding expectations.

PK noted North America was the sole source of weakness, with emerging markets growing and Europe slightly soft. Both legacy businesses saw similar trends. Berry slightly softer due to higher NA exposure and unconverted film end markets. Value-based pricing opportunity confirmed for Berry portfolio.

PK described consumer value-seeking driving weaker demand and customer forecast volatility. On synergies, pipelines suggest more opportunities than expected but won't change targets given volatile environment.

PK confirmed H1 volumes within guidance range, no reason to expect differently in H2. Michael noted profit performance in line, FX and incentive impact not material. Cost focus continues but lapping tougher comps.

PK described strong positioning in sustainable packaging solutions. AmPrima has meaningful scale, fiber growing off smaller base. Both developed to comply with packaging waste regulation.

PK clarified innovation capabilities are already strong based on customer feedback. Focus is on leveraging existing successful products across global markets. On Rigids, earnings growth returned since beginning of calendar year despite weak volumes.