Start 30 days free, no card. Full Pro access for a month, then decide. Start free
Analyst
Doug Leggate
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 141on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 28%40 of 141 questions
- Companies
- 14questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 141 of 141 questions from 14 companies
APAAPA Corporation13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
this is the first time that you have had a call since you acquired Savant
Show response
John gave detailed color on the Alaska position, Savant infrastructure, and the two 2027 wells; development plans still early.
Can you characterize what the expiration optionality is in Uruguay, and what happens beyond the first well?
Show response
John outlined the ENI partnership and deeper Cretaceous objectives, deferring the geology detail to Tracey Henderson.
Calendar 2026 Q1
what that informs for your views on the existing discoveries and what your running room is for the upcoming drilling program
Show response
Christmann said reprocessed seismic shows Sockeye was not drilled in the thickest location. Returning this winter with two-well program: one exploration well and one appraisal well. APA assuming operations from partners. Team and partners thrilled with the pause decision.
what tools do you have to maybe protect some of that
Show response
Rodgers broke down $1.1B: bulk is pipeline transport through summer (wide basis differentials), ~$300M from LNG. Basis expected to compress H2 as GCX expansion, Blackcomb, GCX Hidalgo come online. Still $400M+ expected in 2027 from LNG and residual basis. Monitoring hedge opportunities for 2027.
Calendar 2025 Q4
you've also put new exploration numbers in the budget for this year, presumably Alaska and Suriname. I wonder if you could offer any color on what the program looks like
Show response
Christmann broke down $70M: $20M Alaska ice road prep, $50M for Suriname exploration well (Block 58, late Q4). In Egypt, EGPC announcing smaller discoveries but key wells being drilled on new acreage. Henderson said robust diverse Alaska prospect inventory with focus on Sockeye analogs for next drilling season.
can you offer any color on the impact of this $100 million? What's the nature of that spend
Show response
Rodgers said $100M investment yields $40-50M annual LOE savings with 1-2 year payback. Covers compression, facilities consolidation, artificial lift. Benefits start H2 2026. Riney added three purposes: cost reduction, production uptime/reliability improvement, and moving high-breakeven inventory left on the skyline plot.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how big a delta that could be on cash flow in 2026 as those legacy costs roll over
Show response
Rodgers broke it down: $45M/quarter gross impact, but only 70% lost (30% picked up on profit oil side), so ~$20M/quarter net to APA's 2/3 interest. $60M impact for 3 quarters in 2026. Multiple offsets: capital efficiency, gas growth, oil program improvements.
what's the nature of the flexibility you have? Because I think a few years ago, when oil prices collapsed, you allowed your Permian production to decline
Show response
Christmann outlined 2026 plan: maintain 120K Permian oil, grow Egypt BOEs via gas, fund Suriname/exploration/decom, development capex down 10% mainly in US Permian. Could drop rigs in Permian or Egypt if prices soften further.
Calendar 2025 Q2
there's still no visibility on inventory in the Permian. So you haven't commented on that in quite some time
Show response
Christmann said core inventory now extends well into the 2030s, up from 'through 2029' previously. Riney gave very detailed walkthrough of how capital efficiency is increasing density, lowering breakevens to high 30s Midland/low 50s Delaware. Christmann confirmed 6 rigs at ~120K bpd for 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q1
can you offer any insight as to what you're thinking in terms of resource size? And if I can add a Part B
Show response
Christmann called it a material discovery with reservoir quality exceeding expectations. Permeability of 100-125 mD is significantly better than analogs. Suriname cash flows will come well before meaningful Alaska capex. Henderson added permeabilities are 2-4x better than western analog fields.
the $800,000 per well that you talked about, I mean, were those in your original 350 numbers, or is this a moving target
Show response
Christmann confirmed the capital savings were already in the $350M target but are materializing faster. LOE was already embedded with aggressive targets. Believes there's more to capture.
Calendar 2024 Q4
there's a crisis of confidence in the guidance that is persistently getting missed
Show response
Christmann pushed back on guidance miss narrative, cited recent 7-8 quarter track record, and emphasized the $350M cost savings target with early progress ($35M already captured).
Why are you continuing to prioritize share buybacks when you can easily confirm transfer value from debt to equity by paying down your debt
Show response
Christmann acknowledged both buybacks and debt paydown but did not directly address the capital structure concern. Riney noted the $40 price target implies buybacks are accretive.
EXEExpand Energy13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 0 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
at some point, should we expect the improved capital efficiency, if you like, to translate to a lower CapEx number?
Show response
Josh Viets held maintenance CapEx near $2.8B with modest 2027 improvement; Marcel quantified breakeven and synergy impacts.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Is now the right time to back your stock? Or is now the right time to put cash on the balance sheet
Show response
Marcel noted hedging program means realized prices well above spot. Described buyback approach as opportunistic relative to value. Capital allocation is a balancing act between balance sheet strength and shareholder returns.
I wonder if you could maybe just share with us why did you take this position? What do you think you bring to the table?
Show response
Marcel detailed nearly three decades of energy experience including 25 years at Shell in integrated gas. Believes capturing marketing margin will improve breakeven further. On balance sheet, emphasized investment-grade through cycle. Given Q1 debt progress exceeding full-year target, can now rebalance toward shareholder returns via buybacks.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I am wondering to the extent you can share your vision for how Expand gets that breakeven down given the proportion of dry gas you have
Show response
Mike framed breakeven improvement through the full toolkit: debt reduction, G&A synergies, and marketing margin improvement as the next leg. On M&A, actively looked at many transactions in 2025 but passed due to nonnegotiables on balance sheet and accretion. Liquids-oriented deals acknowledged as a possible path.
you have called the 2029 bonds a big nut, obviously. I am wondering if this is defining a different priority for the use of cash
Show response
Mike confirmed balance sheet priority first, with buybacks approached opportunistically. Wants to be less prescriptive on timing of buybacks. Acknowledged doing both debt reduction and shareholder returns in 2025.
Calendar 2025 Q3
are you under $3 now in your breakeven?
Show response
Josh confirmed breakeven well below $3, with over $0.15 improvement from pre-merger 2024 levels to 2026 setup. Merger was key catalyst but operational improvements continue to drive breakeven lower.
where do you see your breakeven today? Where do you see it trending?
Show response
Nick highlighted 2026 setup of 7.5 Bcf per day at similar CapEx to 2025 ($2.8-$2.9B), demonstrating sustaining cost improvements. On marketing, described it as pre-game warm-ups, newly emerging part of business with talented team now given mandate and tools of scale plus investment-grade credit. Lake Charles Methanol is first example.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what's your appetite to continue doing that, reducing net debt; or put differently, putting cash on the balance sheet to the obvious benefit of your equity volatility?
Show response
Nick articulated a counter-cyclical framework: strengthen balance sheet during strong markets, deploy it to buy stock when markets soften. Currently seeing strong conditions enabling accelerated balance sheet improvement beyond original models.
70% deferred cash tax is the guidance for 2026, I believe. My question is, what's the duration of that?
Show response
Mohit explained tax savings are a function of capital spend cadence, enhanced by the Big Bill legislation restoring domestic capital investment incentives. Duration described as fairly long assuming sustained investment levels.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I'm curious if you're ready to offer any kind of insight as to what impact that can have on realized prices for you guys
Show response
Dan Turco confirmed active LNG discussions but declined specifics. Noted value in either selling into projects or going further downstream to expand the value chain.
Where is that today? Where do you think it can get to during this period? And obviously, there's a lot goes into that, the synergies
Show response
Nick confirmed breakevens moved below $3 and will continue to decline through remaining merger synergies and further business efficiencies.
Calendar 2024 Q4
you put a kind of a 2-year time line on building a marketing business, and you obviously made a very high profile higher here recently
Show response
Doug pressed for quantification of marketing value. Nick acknowledged meaningful opportunity but declined to give a specific number, saying plans are still being built out.
commingling Bossier, Haynesville Upper, Lower Marcellus, what's extending the inventory? What is the relative economics look like
Show response
Nick confirmed inventory count includes all zones and noted the combined company will run fewer rigs, extending development life. Continued derisking adds more locations.
MPCMarathon Petroleum13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 5 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
are you benefiting from that butane blending uplift in your capture in the second quarter
Show response
Management confirmed the butane benefit but framed it as a minor contributor to the quarter's capture.
do you have any hesitancy about allocating your full cash distributions in the current environment?
Show response
CEO pushed back that priorities are unchanged; cash build was timing-driven, buyback remains the priority.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Do you believe you can sustain your 100% target in this extraordinary environment?
Show response
CEO explained capture exceeded 100% ex-secondaries and derivative timing ($500M unrealized losses). Derivative unwind expected in Q2. Sustainable improvements from digital, planning, commercial organization.
do you see this as a windfall as we secure currently. In which case, how does that inform the pacing
Show response
CEO acknowledged balance sheet discipline and watching volatility but did not directly address windfall characterization or buyback pacing acceleration question.
Calendar 2025 Q4
is the cap to stay below that MPLX distribution threshold or should we expect CapEx to drop off
Show response
CEO confirmed 2026 refining CapEx down 20% from 2025, with further declines in 2027 and 2028; MPLX distributions cover MPC CapEx + dividend, leaving remaining cash for buybacks.
what should we consider that anytime we see blowout margins Marathon is gonna treat the knobs to basically run significantly better into that environment
Show response
CEO confirmed the ability to rapidly adjust operations to capture margin opportunities is a core capability being built each quarter, driven by yield conversion complexity and system optimization.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Can you address the CapEx specifically for refining relative to the guidance you gave at the beginning of the year? It seems you're running a little hot
Show response
CFO attributed higher CapEx to strong margin-enhancing opportunities; CEO confirmed no debt-funded buybacks but noted 2026 CapEx will be below 2025 and trend will continue declining.
Calendar 2025 Q2
It seems to us that we're starting to see some benefit maybe of the One Big Beautiful Bill on some of the investments you made in the West Coast
Show response
CFO confirmed cash tax benefit from permanent full expensing and 21% federal rate but declined to quantify the impact, directing to future quarterly disclosures.
what is the new capture rate? What is the new sustainable capture rate that you would expect out of your system?
Show response
CEO acknowledged structural improvements in decision-making tools and global commercial capabilities but declined to quantify a new capture target, citing uncontrollable market variables.
Calendar 2025 Q1
should we be thinking that your capture rate has shifted up as a matter of course? Or I'm just curious how you would respond to that comment?
Show response
Rick confirmed structural sustainability of capture improvement, highlighting specialty products, asphalt, and product margins across all three regions as key drivers.
What is the net debt level at the MPC level again, the net debt MPC level that you're comfortable with, as opposed to the cash level
Show response
CFO specified MPC standalone at ~$7B gross debt and $1B minimum cash; MPLX at 3.3x leverage with comfort up to 4.0x, providing significant balance sheet capacity.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I wanted to pick on one of your comments at the end of your prepared remarks. We will optimize our portfolio. I wonder if you could care to elaborate
Show response
CEO gave a high-level answer about ensuring all assets deliver expected cash flow, without specifying any particular portfolio moves or divestitures.
how does your plant adapt to a different diet of crude if you had to? Frame it for us in whatever way you like
Show response
Rick Hessling detailed scenario planning for every facility; Mid-Con could pivot to Bakken, Rockies, Utica, Marcellus crudes via logistics infrastructure.
VLOValero Energy13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 4 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Why is a rebalancing of dividends and buybacks not an appropriate thing to consider
Show response
Met the challenge head on: ruled out opportunistic growth and M&A, defended buybacks on returns, and committed only to prudent dividend growth.
I wonder if you could just walk through what your intelligence is telling us on those two dynamics
Show response
Direct on both, with the caveat that Valero has limited visibility into China; diesel strength tied to Russian disruption and restocking.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how is the physical set of the crude market impacting the capture rate
Show response
Management explained backwardation headwind peaking at 11-14% now in $6 range. Venezuelan purchases provide economics better than alternative heavy sour. Homer defended buyback returns at 20%.
Calendar 2025 Q4
about your coker utilization and the volume of your heavy runs, where that can get to
Show response
Lane explained heavy crude strategy is to fill cokers first with heavy diet then optimize incremental crude rates, but declined to provide specific coker utilization numbers as they haven't been public with that data.
What what do you think the mid-cycle earnings capacity of DGD is or maybe free cash flow, whichever one you prefer to lean on
Show response
Eric explained the PTC creates a fundamentally different framework from the prior blender's tax credit, with D4 RINs likely to increase given the 5.2-5.6B gallon RVO range exceeding domestic production capability, and low CI waste oil operators will have an advantage.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I'm wondering if there's a change going on in how you're running your business, things like planned turnarounds, just in time
Show response
Greg noted Valero has been on this journey for a decade, with quality operational data collected over 10-15 years providing a foundation for AI applications in predictive maintenance.
a big beat on earnings didn't show up in cash flow
Show response
Homer attributed the gap primarily to PTC timing (booked in earnings but cash received later), with no substantial deferred tax issues.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Do you see DGD net to Valero as free cash flow positive on a sustainable basis
Show response
Eric affirmed long-term positive cash flow outlook, contingent on EPA RIN clarity, citing DGD's best-in-class market access, low CI advantage, and European preference for waste oil feedstocks.
your distillate yields versus your light sweet crude throughput. I'm wondering if you could help us reconcile what's going on there
Show response
Greg explained downstream unit optimization to maximize distillate molecules even with lighter crude, contributing to strong capture when diesel cracks are elevated.
Calendar 2025 Q1
you did mention that the you also had Impaired Wilmington
Show response
Homer disclosed the impairment breakdown ($901M Benicia, $230M Wilmington), and Greg noted Benicia had higher OpEx, lower EBITDA, higher CapEx, and lower cash flow than Wilmington.
presumably, these are free cash flow negative. Otherwise, you wouldn't be taking the impairment
Show response
Greg provided relative performance context between Benicia and Wilmington but stopped short of disclosing absolute refinery-level financials.
Calendar 2024 Q4
if you need to find a substitute for that much heavy oil, you’re going to have run cuts, you’re going to have utilization yield issues
Show response
Greg quantified potential 10% throughput impact, while Gary noted commercial teams have been developing response scenarios for months.
how do you see the likelihood that the industry, the U.S. industry specifically can continue to run at those kind of levels
Show response
Gary cited U.S. cost advantages as supporting continued high utilization but didn't directly address reliability sustainability question.
PSXPhillips 6612 questions · 7 reporting periods · 4 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
it seems to us that you've got an opportunity to reset that net debt target or that debt target substantially lower.
Show response
Kevin agreed there is room below the $17B target, naming roughly $13.5B net debt as the next informal target while declining to reset a formal absolute debt level.
Calendar 2026 Q1
we've got extraordinary margins, you pointed out multiple times, that it's steeply backward dated
Show response
Brian sees margins lasting through year-end into early next year, framing it as demand constriction rather than demand destruction, with a 'race to the top' on refinery margins to incentivize production.
permanently shift this windfall to your equity value comes from debt reduction versus buying back your shares
Show response
Kevin acknowledged debt reduction creates equity value and noted $17B is a floor not ceiling, they may go below. But maintained balanced approach of 50% shareholder returns with excess to accelerate debt paydown.
Calendar 2025 Q4
when we think about your run rate going forward, what would you have us think about the range of utilization?
Show response
Rich announced 25K bpd capacity increase across four refineries (Billings, Ponca City, Bayway, Sweeny) from demonstrated performance and completed projects. Utilization could report even higher against new baselines. Machine learning reducing turnaround durations.
Are these what's the actual dynamic that's going on in the Gulf Coast from Phillips' perspective? Are you seeing physical barrels beyond the sequestered cargoes
Show response
Rich confirmed 250K bpd Venezuelan crude capacity with no incremental capex needed, more heavily weighted than peers. Brian added WCS $3.50 weaker in 2026 curve vs 2025 actuals. Widening driven by both physical barrels arriving and market expectations.
Calendar 2025 Q3
why is net debt reduction not part of the cash return formula? Raise the formula, include net debt. Why not?
Show response
Kevin agreed debt reduction creates equity value. Currently breaks it out separately from dividend+buyback return but acknowledged it's ultimately semantics of communication.
should we think about your go-forward capacity utilization, your ability to manage that if you like, as averaging higher over time
Show response
Rich attributed sustainability to world-class reliability program, condition-based inspection, and focus on filling downstream units behind crude. Cultural shift over 2-3 years supports long-term performance.
Calendar 2025 Q2
are you still comfortable with the forward strategy of the integrated company? Or do you envisage any incremental changes
Show response
Mark cited positive shareholder engagement and vote results. Board continues evaluating all strategic alternatives. No sacred cows except shareholder value creation.
if you had to try and normalize for today's environment, what would the $15 billion be
Show response
Kevin bridged: $11 indicator → $3.5B annualized refining EBITDA; at $14 mid-cycle indicator, ~$5B. Committed to $17B debt target via operating cash flow plus dispositions.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I wonder if you could share the extent of which you did look at some of these ideas that they're putting forward, for example, separating the Midstream
Show response
Mark gave exhaustive defense of integrated strategy, citing board expertise in separations (DowDuPont, United Technologies, AbbVie), third-party analysis, and physical integration at Sweeny.
Calendar 2024 Q4
I don't think I actually heard of a new disposal target. So I realize you hit a lot of your targets early for 2025
Show response
Mark explained no new firm target but continuous portfolio optimization; Austria/Germany retail still in active discussions, ~$300M EBITDA.
do you ever see a situation where Midstream is somehow separated or as a standalone business?
Show response
Management believes integration creates more value; Kevin noted they wouldn't say never to a public vehicle but it's not the near-term plan.
DVNDevon Energy11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 3 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
what you do with the proceeds of any asset sales. Does that go into a formulaic buyback return of cash?
Show response
Shane said proceeds first cover taxes, then potential leverage-target adjustment, then situational buybacks; Clay added that with the debt goal met he expects a differential lean toward buybacks. Leggate signaled he might not agree.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Have you been able to get under the hood on the combined company and Cotera's portfolio and assets, given the merger has not closed yet?
Show response
Clay detailed sign-to-close in 3 months for $70B combined company; strict clean-room protocols limited data exchange; full access starting at close; not raising $1B target or accelerating timeline yet but highly confident.
Do you agree or disagree that having a skewed mix toward gas has risks in terms of confusing investors?
Show response
Clay declined to address specific assets but emphasized thorough evaluation of all options; thinking long-term about what investors will value in 6-24+ months, not just solving today's concerns.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Can you confirm the Kuwait interest, Clay?
Show response
Clay avoided confirming any specific deal but acknowledged Devon is exploring many international opportunities to understand above-ground risks.
what is the role of exploration in Devon? And if I may ask you to opine just on a broader issue, what does this say about the maturity of U.S. shale
Show response
Clay confirmed exploring international opportunities including resource plays; long-dated investments requiring relationship builds from position of strength.
Calendar 2025 Q3
I just want to make sure I'm not misinterpreting or overstating this. But if I look back to the legacy commitment from when you were still COO
Show response
Clay confirmed debt reduction now included in shareholder return framework illustration; preparing for potentially choppy 2026.
You have some of the legacy midstream contracts rolling off. But my understanding is it's beyond the time line of the $1 billion target
Show response
Clay confirmed upside beyond $1B from year 3-5 contract renewals; current $1B focuses on 2025-2026 wins, mostly Delaware gas/NGL contracts.
Calendar 2025 Q2
What does it look like beyond the next 2 or 3 years? And I guess my part B would be, clearly, this is kind of a windfall
Show response
Jeff projected tax rate stays at 5-10% for 2026-2027, not returning to high teens until 6-7 years out; cash accrues to balance sheet for debt paydown.
they said that they chose their acreage because they had problems with the Wilcox and the stability of the Wilcox sand in the eastern part of the play
Show response
Clay acknowledged Northeast Eagle Ford is more challenging drilling but $2.7M savings still makes wells competitive even with extra casing string.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how do you stack the importance of the dividend, the buyback, and the balance sheet when you think about free cash flow
Show response
Jeff reiterated all-of-the-above approach with 30% of FCF to balance sheet first, maintaining investment-grade.
gas markets are obviously changing in the US. It's, you know, it's been a year. We've held for some time
Show response
Clay said their modeling still favors oil returns even with strong gas prices; gas remains optionality.
Show 8 more companies
OXYOccidental Petroleum11 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 11 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
buybacks will take a secondary place to the preferred redemption
Show response
Sunil confirmed net-debt reduction is the priority ahead of the 2029 preferred redemption; buybacks remain opportunistic.
a big part of your free cash flow inflection aside from the pref is the decline in sustaining capital
Show response
Ken Dillon detailed waterflood and EOR projects lowering decline rates across the Gulf of America and Permian.
Calendar 2026 Q1
the next line item on Slide 20 says ongoing net debt reduction. I really want to understand what that means
Show response
Sunil outlined three options post $10B principal debt: build cash for August 2029 preferred redemption, reduce debt beyond $10B, or opportunistic buybacks. Provided helpful context on $1.2B annual cash flow improvement from preferred dividend and interest savings by 2029.
if anything, how do you see things for Occidental Petroleum Corporation strategically?
Show response
Richard laid out clear near-term priorities: execution of 2026-2027 program, free cash flow improvement through cost efficiency and lower decline, and people development. Articulated a value framework of growing FCF while reducing sustaining capital.
Calendar 2025 Q4
sustaining capital updated guidance of $4.1 billion, that's obviously at $40 oil. Obviously, we're away from that. What would that number look like
Show response
Mathew walked through: $5.7B midpoint minus $300M LCV/exploration = $5.4B, minus $200M mid-cycle = $5.2B, minus ~20% deflation at $40 = $4.1B. 2025 sustaining was $4.5B ($4.2B ex-OxyChem) supporting 1.42M BOE/day; 2026 sustaining $4.1B supporting additional 35K BOE/day. Jackson noted STRATOS rolls off ~$100M more into 2027, with partnership model for future LCV capital.
Calendar 2025 Q3
are we in the ballpark to think that spending next year should be down about $700 million on your -- based on your remarks, Sunil
Show response
Mathew confirmed $7.2B midpoint minus $900M OxyChem = $6.3B base, plus potential $400M US onshore flex, with larger proportion of flexible US onshore CapEx.
Where does this leave your drilling inventory? And what would you say is the sustaining capital breakeven at this point for the portfolio
Show response
Jackson explained 2.5B BOE Permian add from subsurface characterization, secondary benches, Barnett expansion, and unconventional EOR. Annual programs all less than $40 breakeven. Midland Basin well costs down 38% since 2023.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I wonder if you could take a kind of 5-year forward look or however long you would like to put on it and say, well, we actually have another X billion dollars
Show response
Hollub acknowledged scattered acreage from prior acquisitions being compiled for sale but characterized remaining divestitures as smaller-dollar cleanup, not large-scale asset sales.
The press has you spending committing $30 billion over through 2050. And I recall that there are significant cost recovery benefits
Show response
Dillon couldn't disclose specifics but framed the $30B as capital plus expense, less than 50% equity, spread to 2050. Block 53 has 640M barrels produced with multiple stacked pays beyond original steam flood focus.
Calendar 2025 Q1
would you anticipate replacing that capital with other projects, such as Mehsana for example? Or do you envisage the absolute level of spending moving to a lower
Show response
Hollub confirmed 2026 capital will be lower as Battleground and STRATOS wind down. Would not replace completed project CapEx with new projects.
you said we're going to accelerate deleveraging and look at all the options, including potential disposals
Show response
Hollub confirmed confidence in 2026 maturity payoff, possibly accelerated. Declined to specify disposal targets. No plans to grow cash on balance sheet near-term.
EOGEOG Resources10 questions · 5 reporting periods · 3 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q1
are you prepared to let your balance sheet go back to net debt zero
Show response
Ezra said net debt zero not a target but achievable in next couple years. Regular dividend $4.80 annualized with 9% CAGR over three years. Buybacks preferred over special dividends for ongoing dividend growth support.
Have you physically reallocated equipment, or was this—forgive me—a classic EOG beat-and-raise
Show response
Jeff acknowledged Q1 beat, then detailed modest adjustments: Dorado dropping to just under a frac fleet, one rig moving to San Antonio, 5 net completions added in Delaware, 10 in Utica. All within existing CapEx.
Calendar 2025 Q4
did you say that on a sustaining basis, do you think you can hold your free cash flow flat for 10 years or sustainable for 10 years
Show response
Ezra clarified 10-year comment was specific to Delaware Basin. Three-year scenario shows 6%+ FCF CAGR with low single-digit oil growth and mid single-digit total production growth. 12B BOE inventory delivers >55% returns at $45/$2.50 and >100% at $55/$3.
what do you think that level is for the post Encino portfolio and what do you believe the duration of that is post the three years
Show response
Jeff updated maintenance capital to $4.8-5.4B (midpoint $5.1B) to hold production flat for 3 years at current well costs. Changes driven by Encino addition, base business production growth, portfolio improvements. Base decline now below 30% for oil and below 20% for BOE.
Calendar 2025 Q3
are you running the business to optimize production at basin levels? Or are you running the business to sustain portfolio free cash flow
Show response
Ezra said multi-basin operations give flexibility, diversity of rock types and product mix. 12B BOE high-return inventory with low cost structure provides significant FCF runway. Generated free cash flow 10 years in a row. Economics quite similar across all 3 foundational basins.
our understanding is that EOG may be starting to build a position in Alaska
Show response
Ezra declined to confirm or deny Alaska position, citing longstanding policy of not discussing individual exploration plays. Redirected to near-term focus on Utica integration, breakeven reduction, Dorado growth, and UAE/Bahrain investment.
Calendar 2025 Q2
what is your objective for the Utica? And what are the constraints around that?
Show response
Ezra confirmed Utica is a growth asset with no major midstream bottlenecks. $150M first-year synergies have significant upside. Pace of investment will balance macro (spare capacity) against long-term growth opportunity.
how should we think about translating that free cash flow from Encino and from the portfolio generally towards your priorities for free cash
Show response
Ezra emphasized growing regular dividend as top priority backed by pristine balance sheet (1x debt/EBITDA at $45 even post-Encino). Believes current valuation doesn't reflect inventory quality, gas business emergence, or Utica transformation.
Calendar 2025 Q1
If EOG is not growing oil production and they’re spending $6 billion, how does that jive with the $4.5 billion, $4.7 billion sustaining capital number?
Show response
Ezra detailed the difference: continued gas growth investments, emerging play development (Utica, Dorado), international expansion, and exploration. Activity reduced in legacy Delaware and Eagle Ford where flexibility is greatest.
is this how we should think about it that you’re ultimately flexing your capital to protect that $12 billion to $22 billion target
Show response
Ezra confirmed directional accuracy of the three-year scenario while noting it was never formal guidance. Capital flexibility protects FCF generation across multiple price environments.
EQTEQT Corporation10 questions · 6 reporting periods · 1 of 10 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
why would you grow at all? Why would not you reallocate existing volumes and get a premium price
Show response
Rice said EQT's first focus is capturing demand connections; only a portion would be met with organic growth, not the full demand amount.
Calendar 2026 Q1
what can you do to improve your realizations? And more specifically, can you accelerate your access to LNG on international markets given your current plan is post 2030
Show response
Toby acknowledged the gap between U.S. and international pricing; accelerating LNG exposure means paying current strip spreads so limited short-term opportunity, but long-term positioning is validated.
given your inventory depth, why are buybacks the right answer for opportunistic cash flow versus offering EQT as a competitive dividend stock
Show response
Jeremy emphasized base dividend will continue growing annually, but buybacks plus top-line growth from midstream/upstream create more value long-term on an after-tax basis than a high-dividend strategy.
Calendar 2025 Q4
the trend in your portfolio breakeven and sustaining capital. Can you give us an idea where you think that sits on a levered basis for 2026
Show response
Jeremy pegged levered breakeven at ~$2.20 and falling rapidly toward unlevered as debt is repaid; Toby confirmed deleveraging plus growth infrastructure are the priorities with opportunistic buybacks approaching.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Where is the priority on the net debt balance sheet sit versus the priority for getting back to buybacks
Show response
Jeremy reiterated $5B max debt target, noting the stock has traded between $45-60 this year presenting great buyback opportunities once capacity allows; low leverage enables conviction during pullbacks.
my first question is on marketing because obviously you guys had a phenomenal quarter in terms of marketing optimization. I'm trying to understand is this kind of a new normal for you guys
Show response
Jeremy said the 45-person trading team is in early innings with performance correlated to volatility; Toby added EQT's scale (800+ MMcf/d LNG capacity) makes them relevant to international buyers.
Calendar 2025 Q2
What would it take for you to actually grow production? I'll leave it there
Show response
Toby walked through the math: 1 Bcf/d growth at $4 Henry Hub = $720M FCF, at 8% yield = $9B value or ~$15/share (25% upside), but will remain disciplined.
what's the CapEx cadence to get to that $250 million of free cash flow growth by 2029
Show response
Toby explained the $1B midstream CapEx is back-weighted to 2027-2028, with 2 Bcf/d of existing volumes available for reallocation providing flexibility to be thoughtful on upstream growth.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I'm curious what it does to your levered break even to the extent you can offer any color on post-deal sustaining capital
Show response
Jeremy confirmed Olympus is modestly deleveraging with levered breakeven at about $2.35 for 2025, with unlevered cost structure comparable to EQT's.
when you were comparing it to QP, would that also apply to the inventory depth? You guys have got 20 years, you've talked about
Show response
Toby confirmed they only underwrote Marcellus inventory for Olympus with Utica as pure upside, positioned adjacent to existing Utica activity.
FANGDiamondback Energy9 questions · 6 reporting periods · 7 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
where are you prepared to take that to in terms of building cash on the balance sheet
Show response
Pressed on procyclical buybacks vs balance-sheet cash; Kaes laid out addressing 2026/2027 maturities and reassured no big cash deals.
Calendar 2026 Q1
is it inconceivable that when we look out with no variable dividend taken out of the capital return structure, but your net debt balance sheet could basically go to 0
Show response
CEO confirmed aspiration to zero debt and one share outstanding as competing long-term goals. Flexibility is key, pouncing on opportunities when cycle turns. Transferring debt NAV to equity NAV.
what you're seeing from your nonoperated positions. And I guess this is particularly, it might be a Viper question
Show response
Diamondback carries little non-op; Viper sees half the basin's wells. Private rigs getting picked up. Permian rig count forecast up 25-30 by year-end.
Calendar 2025 Q4
the type curve you've shown for the Barnett is presumably a parent well versus a development type curve for the cube development elsewhere
Show response
Kaes acknowledged some variability but wide spacing and large frac jobs should support consistent performance. A few Barnett wells are the highest 6-month cums in FANG history.
Is that a kind of consistent weighted average well quality? Is it maintaining production mix? Or more importantly, is it maintaining free cash flow
Show response
Kaes said best stuff is drilled first, productivity per foot will eventually degrade, but zone additions (Upper Spraberry, Wolfcamp D, now Barnett) have kept 2025 results above 2024. Goal is sustaining FCF the longest.
Calendar 2025 Q3
$500 million a year is pretty meaningful for you for every $1 change in gas price, and you're kind of giving it away right now
Show response
Kaes acknowledged legacy dedications limit near-term options but Endeavor brought free molecules; hedges protect through next 12 months while Blackcomb and other pipes come online.
when you talk about core, you're generally talking about your best inventory, but in the co-development, you're obviously bringing in lower than Tier 1 locations
Show response
Kaes said 5,000-5,500 core locations at sub-$40 breakeven; Barnett and Woodford could add Tier 1 zones. Al described DSU optimization to avoid leaving degraded child wells.
Calendar 2025 Q2
it sounds like there is a case where growth would make sense. Is that a change of stance under case versus under Travis
Show response
Kaes said it's not a stance change but they're closer to discussing organic growth, which will come cautiously with high capital efficiency when the oil market calls for it.
Calendar 2025 Q1
it seems to me that you get higher free cash flow in the current plan than you would if you added $400 million back to get 5 million barrels. So how do you think about sustaining capital
Show response
Travis explained the gap between full-year average and quarterly run rates, the cuts create a mid-year production trough before stabilizing.
COPConocoPhillips7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
get to that huge free cash flow inflection is that spending comes down when Willow comes up
Show response
O'Brien corrected the premise (Willow peak CapEx is behind) and confirmed CapEx and reinvestment rate structurally decline, defending the FCF inflection.
Calendar 2026 Q1
why not flex down in the payout? Why not think more about the longer-term dividend, the breakeven, the balance sheet?
Show response
Ryan provided thorough defense of the 45% framework, explained through-cycle thinking, and acknowledged they ratchet share repurchases up and down to manage procyclicality.
Calendar 2025 Q4
I'm trying to understand a little bit about what the moving parts are. Where is it today and what is the assumption in where CapEx is from the $12 billion this year in 2030 that gets you to that nu...
Show response
Ryan Lance walked through breakeven starting at mid-40s pre-dividend, declining ~$6 from preproductive capital rolling off, plus FCF doubling by Willow startup. Low 30s pre-dividend by end of decade. Share buybacks reducing dividend burden over time.
Calendar 2025 Q3
how damaging is the increase in will of spending to the cash cadence of the cash flow coming back
Show response
Andy O'Brien showed breakeven declining $2-3 from 2025 to 2026, on trajectory to low 30s by decade end. Dividend sustainable with fifth year of top quartile S&P 500 growth.
Calendar 2025 Q2
What is the sustainable deferred tax visibility that you have for the Lower 48 at this point, if you're able to offer any color beyond 2025
Show response
Andy O'Brien detailed effective tax rate reduction to mid-30s from geographic mix, $0.5B One Big Beautiful Bill impact from bonus depreciation, and continued NOL benefits.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Is this coming out of growth capital in terms of doing things more efficiently? Or is it coming out of, I guess, what you would call base capital
Show response
Andy O'Brien described the reduction as a mix of deferrals and deflation capture, with breakeven trending from mid-40s toward low 30s as major projects come online.
Calendar 2024 Q4
do you accept that production growth on a go-forward basis or do you trim activity levels and reduce your capital
Show response
Ryan Lance emphasized capital efficiency over growth targets, noted no rig lines added since 2022 yet strong growth achieved through drilling efficiencies.
CVXChevron Corporation7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Where does the Permian fit? Could we see that go back to growth in the post 2030 outlook?
Show response
Wirth laid out three growth buckets and stressed value over growth while noting the Permian remains an option. Thorough.
Calendar 2026 Q1
Are you at a point now where the fiscal terms have changed, the security situation is different, and you would be prepared to incrementally put more capital to work
Show response
Wirth said Venezuela still in debt recovery mode, expects receivable fully paid by 2027. Permian running for FCF, could accelerate but sees value in current reliability focus. Steady as she goes.
Calendar 2025 Q4
Kazakhstan seemingly has some fairly substantial compensation cuts planned in the summertime. And I don't know how much of that was supposed to be Tenge's
Show response
Wirth noted Chevron is not privy to OPEC+ discussions. Historically TCO barrels are fiscally attractive to the republic, so cuts tend to fall on less valuable production. Cannot predict future but pointed to historical precedent.
Calendar 2025 Q3
what is your prognosis for exploration, the role of exploration and the associated spending that could fit in Chevron going forward
Show response
Wirth acknowledged exploration was constrained in recent years. Expanding to frontier in Suriname, Namibia, Egypt. New hires from Hess and TotalEnergies. More capital commitment expected.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is this a core business for Chevron? Because a few years ago, they talked about a 10-year inventory. Today, it's probably a 5-year inventory
Show response
Nelson acknowledged Hess Midstream structure can be more efficient but deferred long-term Bakken plans to Investor Day. Entity generates solid cash flow in total but specifics were limited.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Venezuela and the potential loss of production there. And the other is what appears to be an impending market share battle going with the declaration of cooperation
Show response
Wirth explained Venezuela liftings halted to U.S. due to tax/royalty payment restrictions under sanctions. On OPEC+, said TCO production discussions with Kazakhstan focused on concession, not curtailment.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what is the incremental 10, including the debt payback? What does that look like in 2027 versus, I guess, what you gave us before?
Show response
CFO confirmed 2027 FCF guidance reaffirmed despite portfolio changes. Wirth addressed TCO concession as a priority but noted complex negotiations ahead.
XOMExxonMobil7 questions · 7 reporting periods · 2 of 7 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
although your production entitlement goes down, what happens to your free cash flow?
Show response
Hansen framed the entitlement decline as an inflection into higher free cash flow, emphasizing value over volume.
Calendar 2026 Q1
your participation in the repairs comes up against, I believe, limited remaining contract length
Show response
Darren declined specifics but emphasized strong QatarEnergy partnership and commitment to win-win solutions. Stated QatarEnergy respects value contributions and will ensure rewards. Did not address contract length or force majeure directly.
Calendar 2025 Q4
what was not in the plan through 2030 that could surprise on the upside
Show response
Woods said resource-rich markets historically had challenges with fiscal regimes and legal infrastructure. Recognition growing that these resources need capabilities not existing in-country which plays to ExxonMobil differentiation. Getting opportunity to look at number of locations and work toward contractual arrangements. Confident of progress in areas not currently in plan. On Venezuela said current fiscal structures are uninvestable but Trump administration working to stabilize country and transition government. Venezuelan heavy oil barrels are high-cost but ExxonMobil has technology advantage from Canada work for lower-cost higher-recovery production. Offered to send assessment team to help administration.
Calendar 2025 Q3
At what point do you think the free cash flow expansion translates to a more competitive, let's say, versus a broader market, dividend growth rate
Show response
Mikells said they look at dividend growth over long periods relative to IOC competitors, S&P, and industrials and feel in a pretty good place with generally positive investor commentary. Focus on sustainability, competitiveness, and growth as three qualitative factors. Woods added they are very mindful of commitment through commodity cycles and building a business that reliably delivers across any price environment.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how do you think about the risk profile, putting that much of a high decline asset into a long-term dividend visibility anchor
Show response
Woods said Permian is one part of a big portfolio and depletion challenge is not new for the company. Must strike right balance between development pace and technology progress to improve capital efficiency. Expects continued improvements in both capital required to access resource and recovery rates. Technologies will open up new space for inorganic opportunities with other resource types worldwide. Plans beyond 2030 drive toward earnings and cash flow growth explicitly comprehending Permian development plans. The 20 years of inventory based on wells to sales per year at current pace.
Calendar 2025 Q1
would you continue this pace regardless of the commodity within reason
Show response
Woods said Pioneer acquisition stock issuance created additional obligation they are very focused on managing down. Buyback increase and pace underpinned by this objective. Lower stock price with crude presents great buying opportunity. Priority remains investing in advantaged projects, maintaining strong balance sheet, then addressing dividend and shareholder sharing. Mikells added December corporate plan showed $55 oil sensitivity generating $110 billion surplus cash flow over 2025-2030, demonstrating resilience even in lower commodity environment. Leggett follow-up on Golden Pass: Woods said first LNG by end of 2025 potentially slipping into early next year.
Calendar 2024 Q4
your cash distribution philosophy, buybacks versus dividends
Show response
Mikells said buyback pace moved to $20 billion coinciding with Pioneer incremental cash flow which is a coincidence that shares essentially bought back over three years. Guided $20 billion pace this year and next assuming reasonable market conditions. Dividend philosophy focused on sustainable competitive and growing. Buyback program as secondary benefit reduces overall dividend in absolute terms. Increased annual dividend for 42 years running which only 4% of S&P 500 companies can claim. Large retail shareholder base very focused on dividend.
CTRACoterra5 questions · 3 reporting periods · 2 of 5 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
when you look at the gas-levered E&Ps, particularly your larger peers, EQT and Expand and compare your relative performance, it almost seems like you've been kind of orphaned by the mix of your por...
Show response
Leggate probed management response to Kimmeridge activist letter arguing for Delaware pure-play separation. Jorden deflected specific letter discussion but defended multi-basin model citing top-of-stack oil trading performance.
is this related to the workovers in the Harkey? Should we continue to expect your oil production to move up and then ultimately your LOE to move down as those workovers flow through the system?
Show response
Follow-up on elevated LOE and Harkey remediation status. Deshazer confirmed Harkey program transitioned out and workover costs expected to decrease in Q4.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is that a consideration for your gas strategy, if not, why not?
Show response
Blake Sirgo confirmed seasonal curtailments, rolling shut-ins, and delayed completions are all in the toolkit but must harmonize with long-term gas sales portfolio. Tom added Coterra has demonstrated willingness to curtail when pricing is hostile.
you have the option to not spend out $100 million in the Marcellus. Is this a desire to maintain production because the risk, obviously, for the commodity
Show response
Tom Jorden gave a philosophical defense of steady-cadence investing, citing 20-year look-back analysis showing trough investments were among the most profitable. Rejected the framing that Coterra is part of the oversupply problem.
Calendar 2025 Q1
this was a cementing issue. It sounds like -- that sounds like it's temporary. It doesn't sound like it's getting any read through, but what does it mean for your view of inventory
Show response
Tom Jorden firmly stated three-year plan is intact with no inventory impact. Blake Sirgo added over 30 successful Harkey wells previously drilled in Culberson with same designs, calling this a non-ubiquitous issue.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| APA APA Corporation | 13 | 23%3 of 13 questions |
| EXE Expand Energy | 13 | 0%none of 13 questions |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | 13 | 38%5 of 13 questions |
| VLO Valero Energy | 13 | 31%4 of 13 questions |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 12 | 33%4 of 12 questions |
| DVN Devon Energy | 11 | 27%3 of 11 questions |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum | 11 | 9%1 of 11 questions |
| EOG EOG Resources | 10 | 30%3 of 10 questions |
| EQT EQT Corporation | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | 9 | 78%7 of 9 questions |
- APAAPA Corporation · 13 questions23%3 of 13 questions
- EXEExpand Energy · 13 questions0%none of 13 questions
- MPCMarathon Petroleum · 13 questions38%5 of 13 questions
- VLOValero Energy · 13 questions31%4 of 13 questions
- PSXPhillips 66 · 12 questions33%4 of 12 questions
- DVNDevon Energy · 11 questions27%3 of 11 questions
- OXYOccidental Petroleum · 11 questions9%1 of 11 questions
- EOGEOG Resources · 10 questions30%3 of 10 questions
- EQTEQT Corporation · 10 questions10%1 of 10 questions
- FANGDiamondback Energy · 9 questions78%7 of 9 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 15 | 20%3 of 15 questions | 9 |
| 2025 Q1 | 20 | 20%4 of 20 questions | 13 |
| 2025 Q2 | 23 | 30%7 of 23 questions | 14 |
| 2025 Q3 | 24 | 25%6 of 24 questions | 14 |
| 2025 Q4 | 21 | 19%4 of 21 questions | 13 |
| 2026 Q1 | 22 | 41%9 of 22 questions | 13 |
| 2026 Q2 | 16 | 44%7 of 16 questions | 12 |
- 2024 Q415 questions · challenge rate 20% (3 of 15 questions) · 9 companies
- 2025 Q120 questions · challenge rate 20% (4 of 20 questions) · 13 companies
- 2025 Q223 questions · challenge rate 30% (7 of 23 questions) · 14 companies
- 2025 Q324 questions · challenge rate 25% (6 of 24 questions) · 14 companies
- 2025 Q421 questions · challenge rate 19% (4 of 21 questions) · 13 companies
- 2026 Q122 questions · challenge rate 41% (9 of 22 questions) · 13 companies
- 2026 Q216 questions · challenge rate 44% (7 of 16 questions) · 12 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Capital Allocation75
- Capex Investment38
- Competitive Dynamics26
- Margin17
- M&A13
- Geographic Expansion13
- Pricing11
- Guidance Reliability10
- Innovation & R&D9
- Revenue Growth9
Show all 17 topics
- Regulation Policy8
- Cost Pressure8
- Macroeconomic6
- Supply Chain6
- Demand4
- Credit4
- Trade Tariffs2