Eric Wolfe

Margolis quantified the revised Los Angeles headwind and characterised the benefit as real but not significant enough to drive acceleration.

Springer said acceleration is possible but explicitly declined to guide to it, leaving the question of magnitude unanswered.

Joe clarified: 40bp headwind is LA County only (73 of 122 MSA stores). MSA performance driven by non-restricted stores. Jeff added LA County occupancy already 96% due to suppressed rates, reducing churn. Non-County properties performing well and ahead of expectations.

Jeff said likely combination: harder comps plus model evaluating price elasticity and optimal total revenue balance. In March, system leaned into occupancy, closing YoY gap. Pleased with revenue outcome regardless of which lever drives it.

Jeff said change was market feedback from both buy-side and sell-side for consistency with peer disclosures. Delta between per-unit and per-SF explained by volume mix between larger/smaller units and stronger pricing power in larger units during the quarter.

Jeff confirmed lapping comps becomes harder in H2 as a reasonable assumption for rate moderation. Also highlighted ~40bp LA pricing restriction headwind baked into guidance. Doesn't guide at market level.

Jeff declined to provide market-level guidance. Confirmed the 40bp is dilution vs what growth would have been absent restrictions, not an absolute number.

Jeff said ECRI approach unchanged YoY except state of emergency caps. Joe confirmed customers accepting ECRI at same rate with no greater move-out reaction. Primary Q3 drag was slower churn (lower rentals and vacates).

Joe admitted limited answers, changing too quickly. AIO went from 15% to 65%+ in 6-7 months. Jeff added AI inquiries are informational; intent-to-transact customers still click through with higher conversion rates.

Joe explained Board-approved price band for buybacks; had only a 2-hour window before tariff pause pushed stock above band. Willing to do it again in future.

Joe explained moving demand declined from 63% to 54% of customers, but lack-of-space segment grew to 35%. These customers have 2x length of stay, supporting occupancy and reducing vacates.

Joe clarified the rent cap applies to existing rates customers are paying, no increases over those levels regardless of rate type.

Scott explained the timing dynamic, Q4 was down 4% including LSI, so front-half drag from lower starting point with improvement building through the year.

Argo quantified the back-half blended assumption and walked through the implied Q3 and Q4 shape rather than deflecting to full-year figures.

Tim provided detailed blended math: full year 1-1.5%, Q1 was -0.3%, implying 1.3-1.8% for remaining 3 quarters. New lease pricing expected to accelerate through July then moderate seasonally (but less moderation than typical as supply impact wanes). Renewals expected in 5%+ range and consistent. Direct with good quantitative framework.

Tim provided: $180-185 renewal premium over new leases in Q4 (after $80 renewal increase). Gap wider than long-term average but consistent with recent Q4s and last 8-9 quarters. Sustainable due to: cost/hassle of moving, aging resident base, strategic tiered renewal approach based on market positioning, highest Google scores in sector, lease-up concession burn-off making renewals relatively attractive. Visibility through April showing consistent performance. Direct with excellent qualitative reasoning.

Brad outlined 2026 framework: demand fundamentals similar to 2025 (migration, household formation, single-family affordability), job market early projections slightly softer but election year may help. Supply deliveries expected ~50% below 2024 peak. Tim quantified earn-in at flat to slightly negative (improvement from -40bps heading into 2025). WiFi projects contributing ~$5M NOI when fully rolled out. Direct with good framework.

Tim pushed back on peer commentary. MAA saw less than typical seasonal moderation (40bps vs normal 60-70bps Q2 to Q3). DC moderated slightly on new leases. Encouraging trends in Dallas and Atlanta where new lease rates actually accelerated Q2 to Q3. Nashville and Austin remain laggards. Direct and data-driven.

Tim: Steady new lease acceleration from -9% (Dec) to -4.6% (Apr). Pre-leasing activity continues to improve. Expects continued acceleration into Q2 and Q3, dependent on economic environment. Direct with specific trajectory.

Tim: April new leases known, ~50% of May, ~25% of June visible. Pre-leasing focus pushed out visibility window vs prior year. Direct.

Tim clarified it is not back-half loaded but follows normal seasonality with peak lease expirations coinciding with best pricing months in mid-Q2 to early Q3. Brad added that supply declines accelerate through the year. Direct.

Tim explained average stay is 21-22 months, meaning most residents do one renewal then move out, preventing excessive stacking. Improving new lease rates should narrow the gap. Direct.

Michael said 19% rent-to-income is within normal 17-23% historical range. Portfolio typically runs 19-20%. Current tick down driven by higher incomes from new demand against rents following normal seasonality. Income growth, not rent compression, driving the ratio lower.

Michael said setup similar to last year but heading into unprecedented low supply environment. Retention strength gives confidence through spring into peak. H2 2026 positioned well with minimal competitive supply. Key difference from 2025 is much better supply setup in back half.

Bob described sold assets as older, noncore, with higher CapEx burdens that aren't ROI-enhancing. Selling improves forward growth rate on FFO and AFFO basis. Mark noted timing matters, selling Dec 30 loses full year of income but buyback share count benefit not fully reflected in 2026. Accretive on FFO if same-day but timing creates noise.

Alec clarified it is property-by-property and submarket-by-submarket. Properties EQR bought entering same-store are in low-supply pockets and on track to hit pro formas. But broader Sunbelt markets like Austin, Nashville, Charlotte, Phoenix have unit overhang extending challenges into 2027.

Michael explained portfolio started year with moderate gain, flipped to 2.6% loss as rent acceleration kicked in. Loss is 50-100bps lower than normal due to July dampening. Expects normal deceleration through Q3/Q4 and probably a return to moderate gain. Nothing well outside norms.

Alex described more product coming to market as lenders stop extending loans. Multifamily remains favorite asset class at ~5% cap rates despite uncertainty.

Michael explained the 2.8-3.4% Q2 blend is based on ~5% renewals and normal seasonal new lease improvement. Under a third of new lease transactions signed.

Michael described typical seasonal shape with third quarter strongest, fourth quarter moderating, but overall elevated vs 2024.

Bob gave a clear breakdown of how leasing activity and connectivity income both weight to back half of year.

Boyle sequenced expenses first, then tenant insurance, then revenue, and described a micro-market pricing approach, but set no measurable near-term milestone.

Fisher explained year-over-year revenue lags current trends. Expects worst new move-in environment in Q1, improving through the year with better exit velocity. Boyle added coastal and Midwest markets showing 2%+ growth.

Boyle pointed to steady stabilization with demand bouncing off 2024 lows, declining new supply, and West Coast markets growing 2-4%.

Tom Boyle described data-driven forecasting processes. Joe Russell added it's robust across every function, fluid and ongoing.

Tom noted the ECRI restriction impact is well-defined and predictable; the variable component is underlying LA demand, which has been encouraging.

Tom expects revenue to reaccelerate in months following expiration, likely taking about a year to fully recapture given the shorter duration of this emergency vs prior ones.

Tom clarified LA impact exists in all quarters but accumulates through the year. Noted some impact will spill into Q1 2026 before emergency expires.

Tom noted some Q1 expense favorability from easy comps on health plan costs and advertising down 10% that may not persist, but payroll optimization and solar savings are structural.

Jessett declined to give total July numbers but said effective July new-lease, renewal and blended rates look good, with signed data giving roughly three months of visibility. Expects a slight Q3 occupancy uptick and slight Q4 downtick, not the drop toward 95.1% seen last year.

Jessett declined a specific July new-lease figure, arguing monthly data puts management on a treadmill and the Street overreacts to second derivatives; Fraker added the market reacts too sharply to real-time single-day rates.

Jessett confirmed April occupancy at 95.4% (up from 95.1%) and blends up ~100bp vs Q1. Expects strong Q3 followed by atypically better Q4 as supply absorbed. Green shoots in Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando, Nashville, Raleigh, Southeast Florida.

Jessett confirmed flat earn-in for 2026 but declined full guidance. Noted 2026 should have less uncertainty around tariffs and taxes, plus 25% fewer multifamily deliveries. Encouraged optimism.

Jessett confirmed monthly blend acceleration April through July. Second-half blends expected just under 1%. Full-year blend 50-75bp achieved via lower bad debt (55bp vs 70bp budget), higher occupancy, and higher other income.

Campo acknowledged they might have raised same-store guidance if not for macro uncertainty, but didn't quantify. Emphasized no operational weakness visible.

Jessett explained front-loading is for tax-efficient reverse 1031 exchanges. FFO dilution around 100bps in 2025 narrows in 2026-2027 as comparable assets trade.

Kleiman confirmed NorCal started from a lower supply base and is the demand origination point for the West Coast.

Pak itemized the 40 basis point revenue guidance raise into scheduled rent, other income and occupancy.

Probed the H2 blended rent growth guidance reduction from ~3% to 2.7%, asking whether recent pricing trends drove the change or if management is communicating a shift in market rent growth.

Angela detailed nuanced regional approach: pushing rent in NorCal, transitional in Seattle (60% supply in H1), still building occupancy in SoCal.

Angela explicitly stated no demand weakness observed on the ground from tariffs; cautious guidance approach is precautionary, not reactive.

Angela cited concrete evidence: office lease square footage implying ~5,000 new hires, plus tech job postings gradually increasing and steady.

Angela explained renewal rates can be lumpy year over year and the focus is on maximizing total revenue rather than individual rates.