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Analyst
John Freeman
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 45on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 2%1 of 45 questions
- Companies
- 5questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 45 of 45 questions from 5 companies
EXEExpand Energy13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
you do have a little bit longer cycle times, which might push some of those Haynesville tills into next year
Show response
Josh Viets confirmed roughly 10 fewer tills this year, happy to float turn-in-lines into 2027 given soft demand.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how much of that can you all achieve with just those other 2 kind of buckets
Show response
Mike said approximately 50% from near-term optimization (premium markets and volatility monetization, which are intermingled) and 50% from longer-term demand facilitation (LNG, power, industrial). Near-term category already producing results.
I'm just making sure there's nothing changed in the way that you all sort of think about that relationship
Show response
Josh confirmed the heat map framework still drives decisions despite removal from deck. 3-5 year mid-cycle view still central. At current price outlook, 7.5 Bcf per day makes sense. Will be responsive to changing fundamentals as proven in 2024-2025.
Calendar 2025 Q4
it does look like the upside on production in the quarter was actually from the Appalachia region
Show response
Josh confirmed Appalachia upside was from reversing NE curtailments entering Q4, plus some weather-related Haynesville downtime from Winter Storm FERN ice in late January. Full year still expected to average approximately 7.5 Bcf per day.
you are a lot more focused, it appears, on the LCM type agreements as opposed to maybe long-term LNG supply agreements. Is that a fair characterization?
Show response
Mike rejected the characterization, saying all-of-the-above including LNG, manufacturing, and power. Chasing margin downstream. Need to be more aggressive because it is a super competitive space requiring hustle to get in the room.
Calendar 2025 Q3
would you anticipate a similar amount gets allocated to debt reduction next year
Show response
Nick confirmed continued debt prioritization into 2026 but noted they did both in 2025, $1.2 billion debt reduction and $850 million shareholder returns. Has financial flexibility to allocate to shareholder returns in size when timing is right. More specific answers forthcoming as market conditions develop.
I'm just trying to get an understanding if that's sort of timing curtailment related? Are there efficiency gains?
Show response
Josh explained Northeast Appalachia bears the brunt of seasonal curtailments due to demand weakness. Q3 and Q4 curtailments predominantly in Northeast. This is the primary driver of the CapEx reduction, not efficiency gains.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I guess I'm surprised that the kind of the coloring of that chart like hasn't changed at all since the start of the year
Show response
Nick and Chris Ayres explained the chart colors are relative rankings, not absolute values. Absolute free cash flow has increased but relative optimization across price levels has not shifted enough to change the heat map coloring. The $4/7.5 Bcf light green corresponds to approximately $3.1 billion 2026 free cash flow.
Does that reflect those kind of leading edge 2Q cycle times?
Show response
Josh confirmed full year guidance includes Q2 performance levels plus a modest additional learning curve improvement going forward.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is there any sort of additional either infrastructure or just sort of non-D&C spending that we should be aware of
Show response
Nick confirmed no incremental infrastructure spending needed. NG3 pipe capital fully spent with online expected year-end. Open to future opportunities like NG3 if attractive.
Is it fair to say that it looks like everything that you all kind of needed to achieve on a run rate basis is kind of there
Show response
Josh confirmed all synergy components are in place and performing. Team now focused on executing the full drilling program to realize aggregate dollar targets.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Where did the deferred TILs and the DUCs stand at year-end?
Show response
Josh quantified 55-60 deferred TILs and 50-60 DUCs remaining at year-end after 25 TILs brought online in Q4. DUC activation assumed ratable across 2025.
it doesn't look like there's like a material kind of increase that's needed on infrastructure spend. It looks like you'll can handle that
Show response
Josh confirmed no major infrastructure step-change needed to grow from 7.5 to 8+ Bcf/day, as combined entity is restoring volumes to pre-existing infrastructure capacity.
APAAPA Corporation12 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 12 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
Can you kind of clarify how much of that has actually been captured versus what still needs to be achieved
Show response
Ben quantified captured savings across Permian, Egypt and North Sea and the interest-expense savings component.
how you all think about those allocation priorities going forward.
Show response
Ben reaffirmed the at-least-60% return commitment and flagged heavier second-half buybacks.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how do oil versus gas prices influence the allocation of activity currently and into next year
Show response
Christmann said gas price was geared to $75-80 Brent inclusive of infrastructure, and many discoveries required minimal infrastructure. Program staying ~50/50. Riney added they are agnostic between gas and oil at mid-cycle and actual marginal gas price on new volumes is higher than the $4.25 average.
should we assume, given that the next maturity is not until 2029 and those are not callable yet, that the majority of the free cash flow goes toward buybacks
Show response
Christmann emphasized unprecedented times, commitment to 60% returns framework (71% cumulative since inception). Rodgers noted 75%+ returned to shareholders since Q4 2021, $3.2B in buybacks, $3.6B debt reduction. Being patient on deployment mix given conflict volatility. Decom raised $20M for additional Gulf wells.
Calendar 2025 Q4
can you sort of flesh out a little bit for us sort of the impact that each of those had, like the improved run time versus a few incremental completions versus the moderate weather
Show response
Riney estimated roughly 1/3 each: virtually no weather downtime, earlier TILs cleaning up faster than expected, and phenomenal improvement in underlying run time. Christmann noted workover rigs got both holidays off because run times were so good.
the D&C per foot looks like it's continued to go lower on your '26 program
Show response
Riney confirmed continued progress: end of 2025 shallow wells under $500/ft in Midland and under $700/ft in Delaware. Declined to give exact 2026 breakdown by basin on the call, directed to follow-up with IR team.
Calendar 2025 Q3
any more that you all could sort of give specifics on just to see that big of an improvement, both on the realized savings as well as the sort of run rate targets
Show response
Christmann cited G&A and Permian capital as two main drivers. Went from $60M in-year in February to $300M now. Rodgers added: incremental $50-100M for 2026 will come primarily from G&A and LOE rather than capital.
how we should think about that relative to the $65 million you're spending this year
Show response
Christmann said 2026 will be a light exploration year. Potential for building ice roads in Alaska late next winter and possible Suriname exploration wells late in year, but overall light.
Calendar 2025 Q2
do you have a time line for achieving that target? And maybe if you could provide some details on the plan and whether or not divestitures might be used
Show response
Rodgers said 3-5 years at mid-cycle pricing, potentially 1-2 years if prices are higher. Plan is through organic FCF generation with 40% of FCF directed to debt reduction. No intention to use further divestitures.
would this sort of indicate that there might be a shift to a larger percentage of the total CapEx budget being allocated to Egypt
Show response
Christmann provided extensive context on 3 decades of oil focus now pivoting to gas. Henderson outlined prospective Paleozoic plays in western acreage, AG Basin gas targets, and underexplored eastern acreage. Riney noted they can now pursue best prospects regardless of hydrocarbon type.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Would you all plan to go down to six rigs is -- do I think of it as that's slightly left in all
Show response
Christmann confirmed they believe 6 rigs can hold production flat and expects to sustain that well into 2026 based on further efficiency gains.
do we just think of it as that original sort of time line you all showed last quarter, it just got pulled forward
Show response
Christmann confirmed savings are being pulled forward and expects the $350M target will be raised at a later date. In-year capture went from $60M to $130M.
DVNDevon Energy9 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
what's sort of embedded in the $1 billion target versus what would potentially serve as upside
Show response
Clay said gross potential exceeds $1B but they will hold the target until synergies flow through the financials, emphasizing credibility and transparency.
Calendar 2026 Q1
am I thinking about it right that now that you have the benefit of that, the bucket that took the longest in optimization may not have to take as long for these synergy buckets?
Show response
Clay confirmed flywheel effect from existing business optimization work should accelerate synergy capture, particularly in production; Trey added tailwinds from AI and data-driven culture carry through.
Should we assume that is going to remain robust as you work to complement both companies' positions in the Delaware?
Show response
John Raines confirmed robust ground game continuing; added 100+ net locations since last year predominantly in Delaware; Q1 acquisition capital ~$150M (90% Delaware) including lease sale wins.
Calendar 2025 Q4
does that mean that there's potential that you all could ultimately exceed that kind of $1 billion target
Show response
Clay said target unchanged but culture shift means wins beyond $1B are expected; optimization is now permanent operating philosophy, not a program with an end date.
Calendar 2025 Q2
Landbridge announced a produced water pore space agreement with you all starting in 2Q '27. It looks like you are getting out ahead of what could potentially be an issue
Show response
John described comprehensive water strategy: 25-40% to recycle, WaterBridge JV, super system in NM, strategic third-party offloads.
Do you all have a similar agreement in place?
Show response
Jeff said no power purchase agreement yet but it's an option; Devon hasn't fully electrified Texas facilities so demand is lower.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how important the reinvestment rate is when you all come up with budgets. There are some of your peers that kind of target a reinvestment rate
Show response
Clay said reinvestment rate is monitored but not the singular budgeting target; capital allocation within assets is primary.
you're expecting $50 million of capital related to multiple land trades in the Delaware that's going to impact over 30 wells
Show response
Clay explained trades are ongoing ground game focused ahead of drill bit; real $250M swing from original budget after accounting for speed gains.
Calendar 2024 Q4
if, you know, gas prices remain strong, maybe improve further from here, if there'd be any potential kind of shift in the plan to certain assets
Show response
Jeff said gas upside comes from associated gas; oil projects remain highest-return priority across basins.
FANGDiamondback Energy9 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
that first full quarter of continuous pumping over 21 hours of average pumping time per day
Show response
Danny framed a realistic path toward 24-hour pumping and 5,000 feet/day, with equipment-redundancy trade-offs.
Calendar 2026 Q1
can you just give us a rough idea of kind of how that looks now with the new plan?
Show response
Starting at ~200 DUCs, drawing down then backfilling. Need high-hundreds/~200 DUC carry for 5 frac crews (1.5 quarters ahead per crew). Adding 20-30 wells for year within original guidance.
is there like a reinvestment rate that you all just want to stay below regardless of kind of the commodity environment?
Show response
CEO pivoted from reinvestment rate target to capital efficiency as priority. Keeping 5th frac crew running consistently vs letting it go ensures efficiency. Learning from basin history.
Calendar 2025 Q4
You all had a really nice improvement in your leading edge completed feet per day at 4,500
Show response
Danny said continuous pumping removes the biggest NPT (well swapping), enabling shorter stage testing at no extra cost. Kaes noted tangential benefits beyond raw footage improvement.
tariffs have been pretty topical of late. Have you all secured or maybe locked in the pricing on all steel-related products for the '26 program
Show response
Danny explained casing reprices quarterly on an index; tubing procured at longer lead times opportunistically. Section 232 tariff relief needed for casing inflation to reverse; activity levels are the swing factor.
Calendar 2025 Q2
One of the majors has recently sort of highlighted some pretty ambitious targets for kind of dramatically improving kind of oil recovery rates in the Permian
Show response
Kaes was supportive of technology developments while noting Diamondback's Slide 9 shows they are both a cost AND technical leader in basin development.
Calendar 2025 Q1
you all would still probably wait until you're in a $65, $70 world before you'd want to put your foot on the accelerator
Show response
Kaes confirmed the $70+ threshold for re-acceleration regardless of cost improvements, emphasizing patience given supply and demand uncertainty.
y'all did highlight what you've seen in terms of the impact on kind of your steel-related products with the tariffs on casing being up 12% since last quarter, but we're able to lower your Midland b...
Show response
Danny and Travis credited drilling execution and expected service cost deflation as the primary offsets to tariff-driven casing inflation.
Calendar 2024 Q4
is there anything that's sort of at a one-time in nature related to either kind of Double Eagle or Endeavor transactions
Show response
Kaes identified $60M midstream CapEx from EDS and $60-70M of one-time environmental CapEx, both expected to decline.
EOGEOG Resources2 questions · 1 reporting period · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2024 Q4
Are you sort of or, I guess, dialed in on a specific sort of spacing? Or is testing still a big part of what you're doing
Show response
Keith explained spacing varies 600-1000 feet depending on geology. Southern areas with thinner pay but better frac barriers may support wider spacing. Continuously incorporating new data rather than using set designs.
Do you all start to take maybe a harder look at divestitures just as a way to unlock value
Show response
Ezra confirmed ongoing portfolio review and noted active divestiture history over the past decade. Suggested portfolio is already well high-graded without committing to specific plans.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| EXE Expand Energy | 13 | 8%1 of 13 questions |
| APA APA Corporation | 12 | 0%none of 12 questions |
| DVN Devon Energy | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions |
| FANG Diamondback Energy | 9 | 0%none of 9 questions |
| EOG EOG Resources | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q1 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q2 | 7 | 14%1 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions | 2 |
| 2025 Q4 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q1 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | 5 | 0%none of 5 questions | 4 |
- 2024 Q46 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q18 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q27 questions · challenge rate 14% (1 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q34 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 4 questions) · 2 companies
- 2025 Q47 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q18 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q25 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 5 questions) · 4 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Capex Investment19
- Cost Pressure11
- Capital Allocation11
- Innovation & R&D8
- Pricing6
- M&A5
- Margin4
- Supply Chain3
- Geographic Expansion2
- Competitive Dynamics2
Show all 17 topics
- Revenue Growth2
- Macroeconomic2
- Trade Tariffs2
- Demand1
- Credit1
- Regulation Policy1
- Guidance Reliability1