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Analyst
John Royall
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3 (8 quarters; questions recorded in 5).
- Questions
- 34on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 6%2 of 34 questions
- Companies
- 6questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 5with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right. See how we grade analysts on earnings-call questions.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 34 of 34 questions from 6 companies
MPCMarathon Petroleum8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
Can you just update us on the project startups are phasing in from an EBITDA perspective?
Show response
CFO walked through Secretariat, Harmon Creek 3, Utica and Titan ramps and expects a stronger fourth quarter.
I would imagine the sale price is well in excess of your cost basis
Show response
CFO confirmed the refining proceeds will be taxable, with different treatment at MPLX.
Calendar 2026 Q2
Is it fair to say that this year’s full-year capture should look even higher than last year’s 105%?
Show response
Management gave seasonal color and cited sustainable self-help but avoided a full-year capture number.
should we think of that $3 to $3.5 billion as kind of a reasonable upper bound for the buybacks
Show response
CEO reiterated buyback priority and MPLX-funded distribution but did not confirm the upper-bound figure.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Is there anything one-time in that line this quarter? Or should we think about that as kind of a similar level going forward?
Show response
CFO confirmed no one-time items; higher interest expense reflects lower cash balance reducing interest income offset. Expect similar run rate going forward.
any more granular target on the start-up timing would be helpful. And then it seems like the project is more geared towards reliability
Show response
CEO confirmed completion by late Q3/early Q4 2025; 20% return driven by efficiency and cost reduction, not commodity prices, plus NOx compliance under Rule 1109.
Calendar 2024 Q4
The $1.52 billion for '24 came in a bit above the original $1.25 billion guide. And it looks in particular like a big 4Q
Show response
CFO attributed the overshoot primarily to marketing investments with strong cash flow return opportunities, plus some refining base projects.
I was just hoping for your thoughts on RD margins early in 2025 and how you think the 45Z could ultimately play out?
Show response
Rick acknowledged significant 45Z/BTC uncertainty but highlighted focus on low-CI feedstock procurement and placing products in highest-margin markets.
VLOValero Energy8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
looking at some capacity growth in ethanol. I was hoping you could dig in a little on that in terms of timing
Show response
Direct: 45Z credits favor small, quick capacity creep plus carbon sequestration projects targeted for late 27 to mid 28, aimed at ethanol exports.
surprised we have not seen more demand response? And maybe do you have a view on if there is a price level
Show response
Partial: admitted surprise at no demand response so far but could not name a price level where demand destruction would begin.
Calendar 2026 Q2
you could talk about the dynamics kind of driving feedstock costs lower and how you expect that to trend
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Direct: policy favoring domestic feedstocks plus strong crop yields, with tariffs flagged as a headwind for the rest of the year.
wondering if you could give us some color on how much Venezuelan crude you are able to run in your system today
Show response
Direct on both parts: Venezuelan supply growth and lower Mexican exports tied to higher domestic runs at Dos Bocas.
Calendar 2025 Q1
is is the door open for the state or the city to make any changes or concessions
Show response
Rich Walsh confirmed closure intent while acknowledging discussions with California's CEC, but noted the complexity of the regulatory environment makes reversal challenging.
Should we think about throughputs as as relatively locked in sitting at the April
Show response
Greg and Lane confirmed Q2 throughput reflects maintenance scheduling, not demand concerns, with upside if market conditions improve.
Calendar 2024 Q4
how should we think about that payout ratio in a lower crack environment in ‘25
Show response
Homer demonstrated with numbers that even at Q4 low margins, the 40-50% minimum was achievable without leaning on the balance sheet.
How do you view the supply demand balances today for products and the outlook for cracks for this year
Show response
Gary provided detailed demand data showing gasoline flat, diesel up ~1%, inventories well below prior year, and gradual supply-demand tightening through the year.
PSXPhillips 666 questions · 3 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
maybe you can talk operationally just about how your units in the Middle East are running
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Mark said non-Middle East assets run strong and Middle East units run below full rates, but did not address whether the lower guide is maintenance.
But you did not see that big working capital outflow like you saw in Q1.
Show response
Kevin cited a smaller price move, letters of credit in lieu of cash, payables gains and accrued taxes, flagging a Q4 tax headwind.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you help us really as detailed as you're willing to be on what the post-PTC world kind of looks like in your renewables business
Show response
Kevin walked through Q1 drivers: BTC-to-PTC transition, $60M LIFO hit, $50M UK RTFC timing. Brian noted continued margin challenges even in April with plant running at reduced rates.
what do you view as your path to getting back to 30%? And does the path include maybe, buying back a little less stock
Show response
Kevin targets $17B absolute debt, citing asset disposition proceeds and margin recovery. Committed to 50%+ operating cash flow returns. Would love to hit $17B by year-end but can't guarantee.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what are the different scenarios for how that could play out this year? And maybe in the extreme where we have no BTC or PTC for a sustained period
Show response
Brian explained that without credits, feedstock costs and product values must adjust to maintain margins; biodiesel plants already cutting runs in response to low margins.
I'm just trying to think through if there's some possibility that that $5 billion can really be moving up over the next couple of years
Show response
Rich detailed reliability (98% mechanical availability on crude units), record clean product yield, cost reductions. Mid-cycle $5B achievable and pushing further.
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q2
what's called out as a source of strength on the volume side in the third quarter. So just wondering how those trends are evolving this quarter.
Show response
Darren said diesel positive but only 16% of mix. Over-the-road trucker traffic increased. Some February softness from weather but overall trending up and leaning in as incremental volume source.
So my question is how do you arrive at that number? Is the idea to kind of allocate capital fully within cash flows and sort of plug the buyback?
Show response
Steve explained buyback is residual after growth capex, dividend, and maintaining ~2x leverage. No debt draw needed, funded entirely from operating cash flow. Also covers FY25 dilution when no buybacks occurred.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Is it safe to assume that that's your best opportunity to grow from here? And if so, how should we think about NTIs versus acquisitions
Show response
Texas has room but so do eastern states (MI, OH, KY, TN). Approach is 50/50 NTI/acquisition target annually; recent years skewed to M&A. Pipeline of land-banked NTI sites exists.
Can you talk about how much runway you think there is to continue to take out same store labor hours?
Show response
Original commitment was 1% per year over 3-year plan, now two-thirds through and ahead of schedule. Still sees runway for next fiscal year.
CVXChevron Corporation4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
I wanted to see if I could dig in a little on the comment Mark made about increasing distillate yields at the refineries
Show response
Nelson explained the hydrocracking catalyst lifted distillate output 10% with U.S. distillate yield at 46%, plus more debottlenecking at Pascagoula. Answered.
Calendar 2026 Q2
Can you talk about how much power could contribute to your business mix longer term?
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Gustavson framed Kilby as a repeatable model with durable demand and differentiated capabilities. Answered directly.
Calendar 2025 Q1
So I was hoping for a little more color on expansion at Pasadena and how that's running and the benefits you're seeing overall to your Gulf Coast system?
Show response
Wirth detailed Pasadena expansion: crude feed up from ~85,000 to 125,000 boe/d, running Permian equity crude, supply to Texas marketing business, and Pascagoula intermediates synergies.
Calendar 2024 Q4
just an update there. Obviously seen a significant improvement in the political situation in that part of the world
Show response
Wirth provided clear growth targets: 25% production increase over two years, ~50% by 2030. Leviathan expansion in FEED. Pipelay vessel to remobilize H1 for completion work.
XOMExxonMobil4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q3
can you speak to the egress side in the UAE in terms of what you've been able to get out of the Strait
Show response
Said UAE output has recovered but sales are deferred by logistics, with Qatar LNG train losses the main volume impact.
Calendar 2026 Q2
I was hoping maybe for some thoughts on where you are in those discussions and what a project could ultimately look like
Show response
Woods called Kashagan a huge opportunity but said talks are very early, offering little detail on scope or timing.
Calendar 2025 Q1
how you're tracking in the various buckets of synergies today
Show response
Woods said across all areas where they saw combination opportunities they are finding more value than anticipated. Annual average synergies upped from $2 billion to $3 billion at corporate plan update and view today is numbers are even bigger. Heritage ExxonMobil and Pioneer people both excited by opportunity with truly best-of-both approach. Has not finished mining the value in this combination. Expects to continue growing synergy values and will update at corporate plan disclosure at end of year. Described progress as full steam ahead exceeding own expectations.
Calendar 2024 Q4
your expectations around North American tariffs
Show response
Woods said a lot of noise and speculation but treats tariffs same as price uncertainty. Focus on what can be controlled which is being effective and efficient operators. Eight years of work driving production to low end of cost-to-supply curve provides significant margin versus last marginal barrel. None of that changes with tariffs. Cost-to-supply curve gets shifted around but company continues to outperform competition. Basically wading through noise in media and press around policy speculation.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions |
| VLO Valero Energy | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions |
| PSX Phillips 66 | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions |
| CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| CVX Chevron Corporation | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
| XOM ExxonMobil | 4 | 0%none of 4 questions |
- MPCMarathon Petroleum · 8 questions13%1 of 8 questions
- VLOValero Energy · 8 questions0%none of 8 questions
- PSXPhillips 66 · 6 questions17%1 of 6 questions
- CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- CVXChevron Corporation · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
- XOMExxonMobil · 4 questions0%none of 4 questions
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q1 | 10 | 10%1 of 10 questions | 6 |
| 2025 Q2 | 2 | 0%none of 2 questions | 1 |
| 2025 Q3 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2025 Q4 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2026 Q1 | No questions recorded | — | — |
| 2026 Q2 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q3 | 8 | 0%none of 8 questions | 5 |
- 2024 Q48 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q110 questions · challenge rate 10% (1 of 10 questions) · 6 companies
- 2025 Q22 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
- 2025 Q3No questions recorded
- 2025 Q4No questions recorded
- 2026 Q1No questions recorded
- 2026 Q26 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q38 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 5 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Margin10
- Capex Investment7
- Regulation Policy6
- Capital Allocation6
- Demand5
- Competitive Dynamics4
- Revenue Growth3
- Supply Chain3
- Pricing3
- Geographic Expansion3
Show all 18 topics
- M&A2
- Guidance Reliability2
- Cost Pressure2
- Innovation & R&D1
- Credit1
- Cloud & AI1
- Macroeconomic1
- Trade Tariffs1