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Analyst

John Royall

Piper Sandler · covers Consumer Cyclical, Energy

Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q3 (8 quarters; questions recorded in 5).

Questions
34on tracked calls
Challenge rate
6%2 of 34 questions
Companies
6questioned at least once
Reporting periods
5with questions

These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.

How to read these numbers

Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right. See how we grade analysts on earnings-call questions.

Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.

No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.

Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.

Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.

Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.

Questions asked

Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.

Showing 34 of 34 questions from 6 companies

MPCMarathon Petroleum8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 1 of 8 challenging
MPC company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

Can you just update us on the project startups are phasing in from an EBITDA perspective?

Capex InvestmentRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

CFO walked through Secretariat, Harmon Creek 3, Utica and Titan ramps and expects a stronger fourth quarter.

I would imagine the sale price is well in excess of your cost basis

Show response

CFO confirmed the refining proceeds will be taxable, with different treatment at MPLX.

Calendar 2026 Q2

Is it fair to say that this year’s full-year capture should look even higher than last year’s 105%?

MarginGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Management gave seasonal color and cited sustainable self-help but avoided a full-year capture number.

should we think of that $3 to $3.5 billion as kind of a reasonable upper bound for the buybacks

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

CEO reiterated buyback priority and MPLX-funded distribution but did not confirm the upper-bound figure.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Is there anything one-time in that line this quarter? Or should we think about that as kind of a similar level going forward?

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

CFO confirmed no one-time items; higher interest expense reflects lower cash balance reducing interest income offset. Expect similar run rate going forward.

any more granular target on the start-up timing would be helpful. And then it seems like the project is more geared towards reliability

Capex InvestmentMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

CEO confirmed completion by late Q3/early Q4 2025; 20% return driven by efficiency and cost reduction, not commodity prices, plus NOx compliance under Rule 1109.

Calendar 2024 Q4

The $1.52 billion for '24 came in a bit above the original $1.25 billion guide. And it looks in particular like a big 4Q

ChallengingCapex InvestmentCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

CFO attributed the overshoot primarily to marketing investments with strong cash flow return opportunities, plus some refining base projects.

I was just hoping for your thoughts on RD margins early in 2025 and how you think the 45Z could ultimately play out?

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Rick acknowledged significant 45Z/BTC uncertainty but highlighted focus on low-CI feedstock procurement and placing products in highest-margin markets.

VLOValero Energy8 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 8 challenging
VLO company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

looking at some capacity growth in ethanol. I was hoping you could dig in a little on that in terms of timing

Capex InvestmentRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Direct: 45Z credits favor small, quick capacity creep plus carbon sequestration projects targeted for late 27 to mid 28, aimed at ethanol exports.

surprised we have not seen more demand response? And maybe do you have a view on if there is a price level

Show response

Partial: admitted surprise at no demand response so far but could not name a price level where demand destruction would begin.

Calendar 2026 Q2

you could talk about the dynamics kind of driving feedstock costs lower and how you expect that to trend

Cost PressureRegulation PolicyTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Direct: policy favoring domestic feedstocks plus strong crop yields, with tariffs flagged as a headwind for the rest of the year.

wondering if you could give us some color on how much Venezuelan crude you are able to run in your system today

Supply ChainCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Direct on both parts: Venezuelan supply growth and lower Mexican exports tied to higher domestic runs at Dos Bocas.

Calendar 2025 Q1

is is the door open for the state or the city to make any changes or concessions

Show response

Rich Walsh confirmed closure intent while acknowledging discussions with California's CEC, but noted the complexity of the regulatory environment makes reversal challenging.

Should we think about throughputs as as relatively locked in sitting at the April

Show response

Greg and Lane confirmed Q2 throughput reflects maintenance scheduling, not demand concerns, with upside if market conditions improve.

Calendar 2024 Q4

how should we think about that payout ratio in a lower crack environment in ‘25

Capital AllocationTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Homer demonstrated with numbers that even at Q4 low margins, the 40-50% minimum was achievable without leaning on the balance sheet.

How do you view the supply demand balances today for products and the outlook for cracks for this year

Show response

Gary provided detailed demand data showing gasoline flat, diesel up ~1%, inventories well below prior year, and gradual supply-demand tightening through the year.

PSXPhillips 666 questions · 3 reporting periods · 1 of 6 challenging
PSX company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

maybe you can talk operationally just about how your units in the Middle East are running

Supply ChainDemandTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Mark said non-Middle East assets run strong and Middle East units run below full rates, but did not address whether the lower guide is maintenance.

But you did not see that big working capital outflow like you saw in Q1.

Show response

Kevin cited a smaller price move, letters of credit in lieu of cash, payables gains and accrued taxes, flagging a Q4 tax headwind.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Can you help us really as detailed as you're willing to be on what the post-PTC world kind of looks like in your renewables business

Regulation PolicyMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Kevin walked through Q1 drivers: BTC-to-PTC transition, $60M LIFO hit, $50M UK RTFC timing. Brian noted continued margin challenges even in April with plant running at reduced rates.

what do you view as your path to getting back to 30%? And does the path include maybe, buying back a little less stock

ChallengingCapital AllocationTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Kevin targets $17B absolute debt, citing asset disposition proceeds and margin recovery. Committed to 50%+ operating cash flow returns. Would love to hit $17B by year-end but can't guarantee.

Calendar 2024 Q4

what are the different scenarios for how that could play out this year? And maybe in the extreme where we have no BTC or PTC for a sustained period

Regulation PolicyPricingTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Brian explained that without credits, feedstock costs and product values must adjust to maintain margins; biodiesel plants already cutting runs in response to low margins.

I'm just trying to think through if there's some possibility that that $5 billion can really be moving up over the next couple of years

MarginRevenue GrowthTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Rich detailed reliability (98% mechanical availability on crude units), record clean product yield, cost reductions. Mid-cycle $5B achievable and pushing further.

CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.4 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
CASY company page →

Calendar 2025 Q2

what's called out as a source of strength on the volume side in the third quarter. So just wondering how those trends are evolving this quarter.

DemandCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Darren said diesel positive but only 16% of mix. Over-the-road trucker traffic increased. Some February softness from weather but overall trending up and leaning in as incremental volume source.

So my question is how do you arrive at that number? Is the idea to kind of allocate capital fully within cash flows and sort of plug the buyback?

Capital AllocationGuidance ReliabilityTranscript · FY2025 Q4 →
Show response

Steve explained buyback is residual after growth capex, dividend, and maintaining ~2x leverage. No debt draw needed, funded entirely from operating cash flow. Also covers FY25 dilution when no buybacks occurred.

Calendar 2025 Q1

Is it safe to assume that that's your best opportunity to grow from here? And if so, how should we think about NTIs versus acquisitions

Geographic ExpansionCapex InvestmentTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Texas has room but so do eastern states (MI, OH, KY, TN). Approach is 50/50 NTI/acquisition target annually; recent years skewed to M&A. Pipeline of land-banked NTI sites exists.

Can you talk about how much runway you think there is to continue to take out same store labor hours?

Cost PressureMarginTranscript · FY2025 Q3 →
Show response

Original commitment was 1% per year over 3-year plan, now two-thirds through and ahead of schedule. Still sees runway for next fiscal year.

CVXChevron Corporation4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
CVX company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

I wanted to see if I could dig in a little on the comment Mark made about increasing distillate yields at the refineries

Innovation & R&DMarginTranscript · FY2026 Q3 →
Show response

Nelson explained the hydrocracking catalyst lifted distillate output 10% with U.S. distillate yield at 46%, plus more debottlenecking at Pascagoula. Answered.

Calendar 2026 Q2

Can you talk about how much power could contribute to your business mix longer term?

Capex InvestmentCloud & AITranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Gustavson framed Kilby as a repeatable model with durable demand and differentiated capabilities. Answered directly.

Calendar 2025 Q1

So I was hoping for a little more color on expansion at Pasadena and how that's running and the benefits you're seeing overall to your Gulf Coast system?

MarginCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2025 Q1 →
Show response

Wirth detailed Pasadena expansion: crude feed up from ~85,000 to 125,000 boe/d, running Permian equity crude, supply to Texas marketing business, and Pascagoula intermediates synergies.

Calendar 2024 Q4

just an update there. Obviously seen a significant improvement in the political situation in that part of the world

Geographic ExpansionMacroeconomicTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Wirth provided clear growth targets: 25% production increase over two years, ~50% by 2030. Leviathan expansion in FEED. Pipelay vessel to remobilize H1 for completion work.

XOMExxonMobil4 questions · 4 reporting periods · 0 of 4 challenging
XOM company page →

Calendar 2026 Q3

can you speak to the egress side in the UAE in terms of what you've been able to get out of the Strait

Show response

Said UAE output has recovered but sales are deferred by logistics, with Qatar LNG train losses the main volume impact.

Calendar 2026 Q2

I was hoping maybe for some thoughts on where you are in those discussions and what a project could ultimately look like

Capex InvestmentGeographic ExpansionTranscript · FY2026 Q2 →
Show response

Woods called Kashagan a huge opportunity but said talks are very early, offering little detail on scope or timing.

Calendar 2025 Q1

how you're tracking in the various buckets of synergies today

Show response

Woods said across all areas where they saw combination opportunities they are finding more value than anticipated. Annual average synergies upped from $2 billion to $3 billion at corporate plan update and view today is numbers are even bigger. Heritage ExxonMobil and Pioneer people both excited by opportunity with truly best-of-both approach. Has not finished mining the value in this combination. Expects to continue growing synergy values and will update at corporate plan disclosure at end of year. Described progress as full steam ahead exceeding own expectations.

Calendar 2024 Q4

your expectations around North American tariffs

Trade TariffsCompetitive DynamicsTranscript · FY2024 Q4 →
Show response

Woods said a lot of noise and speculation but treats tariffs same as price uncertainty. Focus on what can be controlled which is being effective and efficient operators. Eight years of work driving production to low end of cost-to-supply curve provides significant margin versus last marginal barrel. None of that changes with tariffs. Cost-to-supply curve gets shifted around but company continues to outperform competition. Basically wading through noise in media and press around policy speculation.

Challenge rate by company

Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.

CompanyQuestionsChallenge rate
MPC Marathon Petroleum813%1 of 8 questions
VLO Valero Energy80%none of 8 questions
PSX Phillips 66617%1 of 6 questions
CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc.40%none of 4 questions
CVX Chevron Corporation40%none of 4 questions
XOM ExxonMobil40%none of 4 questions
  • MPC
    Marathon Petroleum · 8 questions
    13%1 of 8 questions
  • VLO
    Valero Energy · 8 questions
    0%none of 8 questions
  • PSX
    Phillips 66 · 6 questions
    17%1 of 6 questions
  • CASY
    Casey's General Stores, Inc. · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • CVX
    Chevron Corporation · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions
  • XOM
    ExxonMobil · 4 questions
    0%none of 4 questions

Activity by reporting period

Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.

Questions by calendar reporting period
Calendar periodQuestionsChallenge rateCompanies
2024 Q4813%1 of 8 questions5
2025 Q11010%1 of 10 questions6
2025 Q220%none of 2 questions1
2025 Q3No questions recorded——
2025 Q4No questions recorded——
2026 Q1No questions recorded——
2026 Q260%none of 6 questions4
2026 Q380%none of 8 questions5
  1. 2024 Q48 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 5 companies
  2. 2025 Q110 questions · challenge rate 10% (1 of 10 questions) · 6 companies
  3. 2025 Q22 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 2 questions) · 1 company
  4. 2025 Q3No questions recorded
  5. 2025 Q4No questions recorded
  6. 2026 Q1No questions recorded
  7. 2026 Q26 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
  8. 2026 Q38 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 8 questions) · 5 companies

Topics

Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.

  • Margin10
  • Capex Investment7
  • Regulation Policy6
  • Capital Allocation6
  • Demand5
  • Competitive Dynamics4
  • Revenue Growth3
  • Supply Chain3
  • Pricing3
  • Geographic Expansion3
Show all 18 topics
  • M&A2
  • Guidance Reliability2
  • Cost Pressure2
  • Innovation & R&D1
  • Credit1
  • Cloud & AI1
  • Macroeconomic1
  • Trade Tariffs1