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Analyst
Kyle Menges
Period: Reporting periods mapped to calendar 2024 Q4 – 2026 Q2 (7 quarters).
- Questions
- 43on tracked calls
- Challenge rate
- 12%5 of 43 questions
- Companies
- 5questioned at least once
- Reporting periods
- 7with questions
These figures cover the whole profile: every tracked question, all reporting periods.
How to read these numbers
Challenge rate is the share of questions that pushed back, pressed for specifics or questioned management’s assumptions. It describes how questions were asked on the calls tracked here; it does not measure whether any view turned out to be right.
Rounding. Rates are rounded to whole percentages, so a small share can show as 0% even when some questions were challenging. The count beside each rate is exact; “none of N questions” means no question was challenging.
No questions recorded. “—” means there is nothing to calculate: no questions were recorded for that period on the calls tracked here. It does not mean there was no activity.
Fewer than 3 questions. A company-level rate is withheld when fewer than 3 questions were recorded for that company; the questions are still counted everywhere else.
Small samples. Profiles with fewer than 10 questions are marked Limited sample.
Reporting periods. Questions are grouped by the calendar quarter each company’s fiscal reporting period maps to, not by the date of the call. Periods without a calendar mapping are listed separately under their fiscal label.
Questions asked
Grouped by company, most questions first. Open a company to read its questions, newest reporting period first.
Showing 43 of 43 questions from 5 companies
CMICummins13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 1 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
any real changes in pricing as you're signing new agreements or pretty consistent
Show response
CFO reiterated the ambition to keep raising margins over time via technology pricing, parts growth, and limited competition in global power solutions.
for the 95-liter at this point, how far are you booking -- how far out are you booking orders?
Show response
CFO said demand keeps growing with no pausing, and new 95-liter orders now push out to the second half of 2028, consistent with extending industry lead times.
Calendar 2026 Q1
curious if there could actually be some meaningful fuel efficiency gains with the new heavy-duty engine
Show response
Rumsey confirmed fuel efficiency improvements expected with HELM platform. Revealed B Series medium-duty delayed to January 2028 due to late EPA rule changes. X15 and X10 still on track for 2027.
what the ramifications could be or maybe a range of outcomes for next year if that medium-duty engine is not ready
Show response
Rumsey said current B Series continues through 2027, allowing phased transition. Did not quantify specific financial impact of delay or discuss potential penalties.
Calendar 2025 Q4
trying to think about how that would actually impact Cummins, I guess, on just engine pricing margin and then also just how to think about the impact to components volume
Show response
Rumsey confirmed EPA 27 drives $10K-$15K content add per heavy-duty truck, majority in powertrain split between Engine and Components (especially aftertreatment). Also bringing efficiency, power, and digital solutions alongside regulatory compliance.
Calendar 2025 Q3
it would be helpful just to hear about the growth you're seeing in new mobility versus electrolyzers
Show response
Smith highlighted e-mobility progress in bus applications moving from negative gross margins to stable. Electrolyzer demand 'dried up faster than anything I have seen in my career.'
does that mean that you have confidence in doing roughly 10% EBITDA margin again in the fourth quarter?
Show response
Smith ruled out 8% Engine margins but acknowledged significant headwinds from volume, parts softness, and holiday seasonality. Not dramatically better but not collapse.
Calendar 2025 Q2
is the plan still to roll out the EPA27 compliant engine in '26 and that will be additional pricing on that
Show response
Rumsey confirmed X15 diesel launch pushed to end of 2026 (was earlier). All HELM platforms launching for 2027 regulation. $1B invested in U.S. engine plants.
how you're thinking about leverage at current levels, appetite for share buybacks?
Show response
Smith noted improved leverage metrics supporting more capital return. Quantified Big Beautiful Bill cash benefit at $125-250M (5-8% of operating cash flow) but tariff costs are multiples larger.
Calendar 2025 Q1
any sort of tariff mitigation actions you've taken already? And then just any mitigation steps you're exploring?
Show response
Rumsey described inventory pull-forward and dual sourcing as no-regrets actions taken. Further supply chain changes pending clarity on tariff direction.
Hypothetical or is that something that you're seeing today?
Show response
Rumsey confirmed limited, not-unusual cancellations/push-outs that are being reallocated to other customers wanting earlier delivery. Not a broad trend.
Calendar 2024 Q4
could you comment a little bit on how you're thinking about the parts outlook for 2025?
Show response
Smith guided parts flat to up 5% with some pricing, growing at least in line with the economy.
how you're thinking about R&D spend in 2025 versus 2024, maybe more specifically within Engine and Components
Show response
Smith noted new product launches in 2025 limit R&D reduction this year, but post-2027 launches provide part of the margin expansion story.
PCARPaccar13 questions · 7 reporting periods · 3 of 13 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
So just curious, as you see the over the road market come back and maybe a recovery become more broad based
Show response
Baney confirmed broadening demand across fleet sizes including TRP, and pointed to proprietary content supporting margin.
I am just curious how you are thinking about margin ramifications maybe as you start with selling
Show response
Feight was explicit that penalties are a pass-through with no margin effect.
Calendar 2026 Q1
how are you thinking about pricing momentum as we get to the second quarter and into the second half
Show response
Management confirmed expected price/cost favorability while acknowledging raw material volatility as a factor to monitor
How is the new engine performing in the market, and will it be ready in time
Show response
Management expressed confidence in engine development programs and Cummins partnership but provided no specific performance metrics or timeline
Calendar 2025 Q4
how you are thinking of the potential for dealer stocking and I guess, risk of an inventory overhang exiting 2026
Show response
Feight pushed back on overhang concern, noting pre-2027 inventory would have value. Too early to predict Q4 specifics; expects acceleration through year.
the 4% to 8% and starting the first quarter at plus 3%. Just how much visibility do you have to that ramp
Show response
Baney cited market acceleration, trucks returning to service, and tariff favorability on parts as drivers of growth ramp through 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q3
Is that simplistically just taking off the existing tariff surcharges
Show response
Feight wants to move past tariff surcharges to normal pricing discussions. 232 stability allows integration of costs into standard truck pricing.
How would that compare to a quote unquote normal fill rate at this point in the year for the fourth quarter
Show response
Industry inventory improving to 4 months from 4.2. PACCAR at 2.8 months. Expects Q4 capital allocation season to cement 2026 buying plans.
Calendar 2025 Q2
how are inventories. And then you mentioned you feel good About '26
Show response
Feight shared medium-duty inventory: industry 6 months, PACCAR 4.5 months. Same 2027 factors could stimulate medium-duty market in 2026.
Calendar 2025 Q1
I'm trying to get a handle on the cost inflation you're seeing and what could actually be, I guess, stickier
Show response
Feight confirmed Q2 cost impact mainly tariff-related. Schippers added other cost elements flat with good productivity and supplier cost programs.
Just a little surprised by that, I guess, with deliveries implied down 20 and then freight activity could be fairly muted
Show response
Schippers noted pricing up ~2.5% supporting revenue growth even in soft volume environment.
Calendar 2024 Q4
what gives you confidence that dealers aren't overordering here to stay in body builders pipelines
Show response
Feight pointed to healthy inventory levels (2.3 months vs industry 3.1) and noted body builder trucks are spoken for, not speculative.
how you're thinking about the medium-duty market in U.S. and Canada as we progress through the year
Show response
Feight noted market normalizing from a high base, with medium-duty share having grown from 14.5% to 18%. Expects strengthening in second half.
URIUnited Rentals9 questions · 5 reporting periods · 1 of 9 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
how you think you can grow maybe in the next couple of years if -- sorry, if local markets do come back
Show response
Matt confirmed local markets stabilized with low-single-digit growth and pointed to petrochem, industrial and residential as future upside.
Calendar 2026 Q1
could you talk a little bit about just if you're seeing anything particularly in local markets? Any early impacts from the geopolitical uncertainty and a fading rate cut theme impacting those markets?
Show response
Matt said local market stabilized, which is positive compared to prior negative trends. Major project pipeline and specialty growth continue as growth drivers, consistent with expectations.
Just how do you see that impacting competitive dynamics in the industry? And I'm also curious roughly what you think your product overlap is with the typical OEM dealer rental fleet
Show response
Matt said product overlap with OEM dealer rental fleets is minimal. A handful do well locally/regionally but it doesn't rank high in URI's competitive analysis except in specific local markets.
Calendar 2025 Q2
I'm just trying to understand that. I thought that was -- that you guys got that in Q1. So I guess just why was that not included in the guide in Q1
Show response
Ted explained it's unusual to update guidance in Q1; more appropriate to capture it when tightening ranges in July. Matt noted they had flagged this plan on the April call.
does that signal that we're through this period of normalization for the used sales recovery? And then just what's driving some of the maybe tightness
Show response
Matt confirmed used recovery has stabilized, sequential improvement from 51% to 53%. Industry discipline in absorbing excess capacity rather than dumping is positive for supply/demand.
Calendar 2025 Q1
Can you just talk about maybe the level of visibility, and is there more visibility in the backlog now just given more mega projects in the pipeline?
Show response
Matt said major project share of demand is similar to last year, possibly ticked up slightly. Project visibility extends beyond six months. Backlog supports balance of 2025.
How should we be thinking about maybe the value of the used fleet and the overall used market just given maybe some tariffs on new equipment?
Show response
Matt said too early for tariff impact on used values. Theoretically, higher new equipment pricing would umbrella used pricing, as seen post-COVID. Q1 demand driven by end market, not tariff speculation.
Calendar 2024 Q4
could you give some color on what areas you're growing OEC during the year and any areas you plan to pull back a little bit?
Show response
Matt said no pullback planned anywhere given strong utilization. Of ~$500M growth CapEx, specialty cold-starts get an overweighted share.
can you just give some color on what kind of changes you've seen in customer behavior and sentiment following the election
Show response
Ted said customer sentiment improved since the election on pro-growth expectations. Matt noted field teams feel good about the year, and they won't overreact to daily news cycles.
CATCaterpillar Inc.6 questions · 6 reporting periods · 0 of 6 challenging
Calendar 2026 Q2
I’m curious what you’re seeing as far as redundancy between those different applications and prime power infrastructures
Show response
Menges asked about data-center backup redundancy and diesel genset lead times; Creed said gensets are extended into 2028 and most grid-connected data centers still use diesel backup.
Calendar 2026 Q1
It sounds like in Resource Industries backlog is growing nicely at a pretty significant quarter of order intake
Show response
Joe said not many new mines going in, but fleet age is elevated and customers are updating. Copper and gold strength is the primary driver. North America construction resilience also supports heavy construction in RI.
Calendar 2025 Q3
the emerging data center prime power opportunity
Show response
Creed said prime power creates services opportunity and is excited about the trend. Joule announcement part of capacity addition to serve demand. Solar seeing healthy ordering activity in both power generation and oil and gas from natural gas transmission. Able to keep up with current orders but lead times starting to extend particularly for larger Titan 250 and Titan 350 turbines. Prepared to act on capacity when needed.
Calendar 2025 Q2
the Resource Industries backlog and level of visibility into '26
Show response
Creed noted healthy order rates with backlog up particularly in large trucks and articulated trucks which have longer lead times. Not ready to discuss 2026 but backlog provides encouraging visibility. Bonfield said coal revenues are low single digits as percentage of total revenue and diminishing over time. Company does not disclose detailed exposure by commodity.
Calendar 2025 Q1
could we actually see, as we start to lap these merchandising programs
Show response
Creed said happy with merchandising results and better-than-expected sales to users not just in North America but also Africa Middle East and South America. Bonfield added no-tariff scenario assumes no H2 price increase with merchandising impact moderating in Q3 and neutral by Q4. Alternative tariff case assumes no price increases either with mitigation to come. Each segment will make appropriate pricing decisions independently.
Calendar 2024 Q4
How are customer conversations progressing and orders so far in 1Q
Show response
Umpleby said customers continue to display capital discipline but encouraged that key commodities remain above investment thresholds. Product utilization high with low number of parked trucks and elevated fleet age. Autonomous solutions seeing strong customer acceptance. Data center buildouts positive for commodities like copper over time. Bonfield said marginally negative RI price impact in Q1 from merchandising programs mainly in heavy construction and aggregates.
DEDeere & Company2 questions · 2 reporting periods · 0 of 2 challenging
Calendar 2025 Q3
It seems like the order book is improving nicely, yet a lot of pricing competition still in the market
Show response
NA earthmoving retail inflected positive for first time in 18 months. Orders up mid-teens YoY. Price moderation expected in Q4. Bonus depreciation potential upside.
Calendar 2024 Q4
Sounds like it is back-half weighted. Would just love to hear if that's kind of baking in any assumed improvement in retail demand
Show response
Jepsen clarified the back-half weighting is driven by year-over-year comps, not assumed demand improvement. Large ag was down 10% H1/30% H2 in FY2024, making FY2025 H2 comps easier.
Challenge rate by company
Every company this analyst questioned, most questions first. A company-level rate is shown from 3 questions; below that it is withheld.
| Company | Questions | Challenge rate |
|---|---|---|
| CMI Cummins | 13 | 8%1 of 13 questions |
| PCAR Paccar | 13 | 23%3 of 13 questions |
| URI United Rentals | 9 | 11%1 of 9 questions |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc. | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions |
| DE Deere & Company | 2 | —Rate withheld: fewer than 3 questions |
Activity by reporting period
Questions recorded for each calendar quarter that companies’ reporting periods map to (not the call date), with the challenge rate for that period. Periods inside the range with no questions are shown as “No questions recorded”.
| Calendar period | Questions | Challenge rate | Companies |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | 8 | 13%1 of 8 questions | 5 |
| 2025 Q1 | 7 | 29%2 of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q2 | 6 | 17%1 of 6 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q3 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 4 |
| 2025 Q4 | 3 | 33%1 of 3 questions | 2 |
| 2026 Q1 | 7 | 0%none of 7 questions | 4 |
| 2026 Q2 | 6 | 0%none of 6 questions | 4 |
- 2024 Q48 questions · challenge rate 13% (1 of 8 questions) · 5 companies
- 2025 Q17 questions · challenge rate 29% (2 of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q26 questions · challenge rate 17% (1 of 6 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q36 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
- 2025 Q43 questions · challenge rate 33% (1 of 3 questions) · 2 companies
- 2026 Q17 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 7 questions) · 4 companies
- 2026 Q26 questions · challenge rate 0% (none of 6 questions) · 4 companies
Topics
Topics tagged on this analyst’s questions.
- Demand26
- Pricing9
- Margin6
- Competitive Dynamics6
- Regulation Policy6
- Macroeconomic4
- Product Launch4
- Supply Chain4
- Revenue Growth4
- Trade Tariffs4
Show all 17 topics
- Innovation & R&D3
- Capex Investment3
- Cost Pressure2
- Capital Allocation1
- Guidance Reliability1
- M&A1
- Cloud & AI1